witesoxfan

QUOTE (Dam8610 @ Dec 28, 2017 -> 10:45 AM) He was past his prime when the White Sox got him, and sending Rowand to get him was an overpay and IMO part of the reason the 2006 team didn't make the playoffs (CF was brutally bad for that team). The Sox were very fortunate that Thome's age 35-37 seasons were as productive as they were. Thome put up wRC+ of 153, 150, 122, and 123 during his time with the White Sox. Aaron Rowand had one good season after the White Sox traded him. If you want to blame defense, you can blame Ozzie for continually putting Mackowiak in CF, but the root cause of that team falling off was the complete implosion by the pitching staff. Their ERA rose a full run from 2005 to 2006. That trade had nothing to do with it, and in fact, I would say was the biggest reason they won 90 games that season.

QUOTE (Jerksticks @ Dec 27, 2017 -> 11:01 AM) Yea I wasn't advocating for doing this, mercy. We're just the only team with enough bullets to fire the shot and still have powder left. The shot heard round the world! The Yankees absolutely have enough bullets. You could argue that Judge for Trout straight up is a fair trade (if not lop-sided towards the Angels), and the Yankees have quite a few more pieces beyond that they could include as well if the Angels didn't feel that was enough.

QUOTE (cjgalloway @ Dec 26, 2017 -> 02:51 PM) Can you give me examples? 1) K% - strikeout rate has continually gone down 2014 - 27.2% 2015 - 27.1% 2016 - 23.9% 2017 - 23.1% 2) BB% - his walks peaked in 2016 and came down in 2017, but it's very possible to discern that he's throwing eminently more hittable pitches to avoid walks. It's still up from where he was previously. 2014 - 6.7% 2015 - 5.5% 2016 - 9.6% 2017 - 7.8% 3) GB% - Over the last 3 years, his groundball percentage has decreased, making hard hit balls much more likely to hurt. 2014 - 49.2% 2015 - 56.2% 2016 - 52.6% 2017 - 45.1% 4) FB% and velocity - Arrieta has increased his fastball usage over the past few seasons, while the velocity has dropped. Dependent upon what numbers you're using, this may also be classified as a sinker, but both his fastball and sinker have shown proportionally equal velocity drops. The effectiveness of the pitch also fell off considerably this year too. 2014 - 47.5% (93.5) 2015 - 50.7% (94.6) 2016 - 65.4% (93.7) 2017 - 63.9% (92.1) 5) Pull% - As a result of declining fastball velocity, teams are more easily getting the bats around and pulling pitches. Combine that with a decreasing groundball rate and, thus, an increasing flyball rate, and it's pretty easy to piece together why he put up a career high 14% HR/FB (though some of that is merely noise, which is why I haven't listed it, because HR/FB spikes and valleys come and go as the wind blows). 2014 - 34.5% 2015 - 34.3% 2016 - 38.6% 2017 - 40.5% 6) O-Swing% and O-Contact% - Over the past couple of years, Arrieta has been getting fewer swings outside of the zone, which are the ideal swings a pitcher can ask for, as contact is much worse and less likely to happen overall outside of the zone (duh). However, a recent development this past year was the increase in out of zone contact, which means hitters are more easily fighting pitches off and indicates, to me, that it's either easier to see the ball coming out of his hand and/or it's easier to catch up to. Extending at bats is always a good thing for a hitter. 2014 - 33% and 62.1% 2015 - 34.2% and 61.3% 2016 - 29.6% and 60.6% 2017 - 27.9% and 67% 7) Defense (Cubs defensive value). During his career with the Cubs, Arrieta has pitched in front of a phenomenal defense. The White Sox defense isn't bad, but it's nowhere near as good as the Cubs. That has potentially inflated his numbers as well and needs to be taken into consideration. 2014 - -4.6 2015 - 17.4 2016 - 69.0 2017 - 21.8 There are a few other issues, but I think that's a pretty good general summary.

There is a lot about Arrieta that is trending in the wrong direction. That is a contract that I do believe the White Sox would regret very quickly.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Dec 26, 2017 -> 01:05 PM) Field YatesVerified account @FieldYates Source: former Steelers LB James Harrison is at Gillette Stadium visiting the Patriots today. The least surprising news of the season.

QUOTE (GermanSock @ Dec 22, 2017 -> 05:36 PM) I like eric with carson. Eric is obviously a very straightforward kind of person who is kind of different from most of their writers but with Carson he actually has some funny moments. If I was eric I would hate that they got Kiley back. Obviously Kiley is good but eric did a good job and I can't imagine two people doing it together. I hope kiley will do some other stuff and leave eric alone with the prospect stuff or eric probably won't be there too long. Kiley has said that, while he may do a prospect thing here or there, his focus will no longer be on prospects.

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Dec 26, 2017 -> 11:55 AM) My comment was mostly a joke. Although I actually don't think Longoria is overpaid. Gotcha. I don't think he is overpaid either but there's not much surplus value there.

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Dec 20, 2017 -> 05:40 PM) People are saying Longoria is going to be making a lot of money in his mid-30s yet want to go after another player next off-season and pay him almost double in his mid-30s? O.o Yep, because the White Sox competitive window, which could be estimated to be between 2019 and 2025, line up almost perfectly with Machado's prime years. You either pay $300 million over 6 years, or you pay $300 million over 10 years, but you're still going to be spending $300 million. Why not lengthen the contract and spread his salary hit out rather than assuming a $50 million pricetag for 6 years?

QUOTE (GenericUserName @ Dec 18, 2017 -> 04:32 PM) If you can get Yelich for Rutherford, Cease, & Fulmer, maybe also taking on a bad contract or two, you absolutely do it. I'm not particularly high on any of those guys and I think we have better options at all the positions while CF is an area of need. But I doubt that would get it done. I think the Marlins are going to wait for someone to offer a haul before they trade Yelich. Pretty sure the Marlins would hang up the phone if that was your offer. Rutherford is coming off a down season and Fulmer's status as a prospect has definitely dropped, while Cease is a higher risk prospect due to his injury history. Compare that to the offer the Sox got for Eaton. Yelich is probably a bit better and signed to a very, very similar contract. I don't see any way the Sox could acquire Yelich without first having to include one of their untouchable prospects. I like Yelich quite a bit, but it just doesn't seem like the right fit at the moment. Perhaps next offseason when the Sox have a clearer picture of the future if the Marlins haven't dealt him by then.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/a-manny-mac...ld-be-historic/ Heyward was traded for Shelby Miller (who was a top 10 prospect previously and had a couple of promising seasons) and Tyrell Jenkins (who had cracked top 100 lists previously but whose stock had dropped) and Machado is a better player than Heyward was. From the White Sox perspective, I'd say that's about Giolito and Fulmer.

QUOTE (Harry Chappas @ Dec 18, 2017 -> 12:21 PM) Replay should be limited to 45 seconds (similar to the play clock) and if you cant overturn it in that time the play stands. I would agree with this, with the only exception being that, after you have made the call, you can go back to verify spot of the ball and time on the clock.

I really like this. If they weren't already, they will absolutely be the go to source for minor league info.

QUOTE (bmags @ Dec 18, 2017 -> 10:36 AM) Same. In my many years following white sox rumors, if there was a sudden rush of rumors we were in the lead to acquire a player, and then a week of silence, that typically means the deal ain't happening. Or if we were initially mentioned then mentioned less and less. I feel much better now, I would be shocked if we were still leading this rush. I think the Sox still have the best offer on the board but Angelos is insisting on the Sox including more, which the Sox are wisely not doing. Thus, the Orioles don't feel they're getting enough for him and no trade will be made.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Dec 18, 2017 -> 10:23 AM) The fact that this deal window was supposedly in hours, and now is going on a week tells me that Angelos is having second thoughts. I think no deal gets done with Machado until the tax deadline. I think they'll hold onto him a little longer then that.

So Manny Machado does not have bad knees.

I think some of you guys are a little unrealistic. Even if we just loosely say that an ace is a 4 WAR pitcher, there were only 14 of those in the majors last year, and I think that definition is way too loose. Personally, I think the only guy in the system currently who has ace potential is Kopech. There are a lot of guys with nice ceilings, but they project more as #2/3's.

QUOTE (Dam8610 @ Dec 16, 2017 -> 01:04 PM) If he was DFAd, can't he just be claimed off waivers for nothing? QUOTE (oldsox @ Dec 16, 2017 -> 02:41 PM) Nope. http://m.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/des...-for-assignment

QUOTE (ChiSoxJon @ Dec 16, 2017 -> 09:01 AM) Jared Mitchell signs with CIN Really rooting for this kid to make it, could have been a star I didn't realize it at the time because I was didn't know any better, but I have serious doubts Mitchell was ever going to make it, regardless of the knee injury. He was having bat to ball issues early on, and it just kept getting worse as he kept moving up, and he never offered enough offensive potential to make up for it. Impressive athlete, but not a good baseball player.

QUOTE (SonofaRoache @ Dec 15, 2017 -> 03:49 PM) I can in fact claim this because our GM is trying to trade for him instead of waiting. I believe our GM is doing this for a reason, that reason being he isn't confident in FA. That belief is backed up by him saying it's good to get players comfortable with your organization first in an interview. Hahn is saying that the odds are better that he re-signs with the White Sox if he is acquired, which is literally true, because they will have exclusive negotiating rights. No one except Manny Machado will know exactly what those odds are. So no, you can't say they go from "almost nothing to solid." They improve. How much is non-quantifiable.

By acquiring him, you are acquiring exclusive negotiating rights for 8-10 months. That's the price you're paying. Is it worth it to be able to talk to Machado and ask him what he wants for a long-term contract? The percentages don't matter whatsoever.

QUOTE (WBWSF @ Dec 15, 2017 -> 11:15 AM) Trading David Robertson was another stupid move by Hahn last summer. LOL

I don't think the Cardinals are anywhere near blowing it up. They pretty consistently put a good team on the field with a fairly steady stream of prospects in the minors. This is a good move by them too.

Even if they're discussing Rodon, the odds of him passing a Baltimore physical would seem to be quite slim.

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Dec 13, 2017 -> 01:58 PM) They went from awful owners to somehow worse owners as well. I don't think these new owners are worse. It was a s***ty situation and new ownership has to start somewhere. They are in the process of building equity. The sale of the Astros was finalized in November of 2011. I don't believe their financial situation was quite as dire, but they cut $16 million from 2011 to 2012, and then cut $34 million from 2012 to 2013, as their ending payroll in 2013 was $29 million. To start to become profitable again, the Marlins needed to save money elsewhere, and that involves trading away guys who make a lot of money. It sucks, but it is what it is.

QUOTE (steveno89 @ Dec 13, 2017 -> 01:43 PM) White Sox seem to be better negotiators than the Marlins It would certainly appear to be that way. To be fair, prior to this year, Ozuna had been as streaky as they come, so I'm sure that plays a part in this as well. QUOTE (bmags @ Dec 13, 2017 -> 01:48 PM) On its face, these aren't the impact players you'd expect coming back in these deals. I do have respect for the talent evaluators coming from the yanks and are on the marlins now, so these may end up making sense. But, as I've said before, I'm so glad the white sox struck when they did. They pushed out the best assets when there was little competition and the best teams were stocked with prospects ready to push themselves over the top. Marlins have been dealing with teams with much worse farms, under much more desperate circumstances. This rebuild was absolutely calculated and virtually everything taken into consideration.