witesoxfan

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Dec 10, 2008 -> 03:16 AM) Not the old Valentin/Clayton argument!!!!! Agreed, Valentin made a lot of errors on routine plays (just like Alexei Ramirez did this season, especially in the second half) but his range (whether measured by RF or your eyeballs) and his superior arm more than made up for it. I don't have the game by game tracker from 2000, but I think the majority of errors he gave up didn't result in unearned runs, certainly most of them didn't cost the team victories. Clayton, like Cabrera, made the routine plays more easily, but there were probably 50 balls that he either couldn't reach or his arm wasn't strong enough to get the out but which end up as outs with Valentin's arm and range. This argument could go on and on forever. KW, eventually gave in and dealt Myette for Clayton and tried the ill-fated Valentin in CF experiment, which ended up getting Jose injured. Clayton and Mark Johnson formed the worst bottom duo of any modern-day baseball line-up in history, making Taveras look like Pujols/Bonds. Clayton's OPS through May 25th of 2001 was .293. That's impressive.

QUOTE (SouthsideDon48 @ Dec 10, 2008 -> 03:22 AM) Yea, but you know how savvy KW can be sometimes. I mean, look at how he stole God from the Diamondbacks. I just made some of those crazy predictions with KW's savviness in mind. Besides, if the Marlins traded Willingham and Olson for what the got in return, then I don't see why it's not possible we can trade away some of our "valued" prospects such as Lillibridge for Hanley Ramirez. Plus, Florida is so dirt-cheap that they probably want Hanley's new contract off the payroll already. Chris Carter's power has been compared to Ryan Howard's, though that's a bit extreme; it still paints a picture. That's who Williams gave up to get Quentin, and Quentin was coming off an injury plagued season as it was. Williams really isn't savvy per se, he merely goes out and gets the guys he wants and isn't afraid to pay the price to get it. It's been a while since I've seen Williams make a big trade and knew right off the top of my head the Sox were the winners, perhaps since the Bartolo Colon trade prior to 2003.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Dec 10, 2008 -> 03:19 AM) Yes, but look at who most of those starts were against... He somehow ended up missing almost all of the really good teams in the AL. I think his most impressive win was beating up the Indians when they were in one of their patented 2nd half hot streaks to look respectable. However, in the biggest start of his career, he was roughed up by the Royals, which was one of the most important losses of the season in tipping the division back in our direction. I'm yet to be convinced he's even close to the same pitcher. I think half his results were intimidation/name factor from 2006 and the fact that he was facing almost all "inferior" AL teams and not pitching against any contending teams....maybe once or twice in those 11 starts. He beat the Rays and a hot Indians team on the road. In his other nine starts, KC three times (including the crucial loss the final weekend), Detroit (dead team walking, was a good offense earlier before they phoned it in), Oakland twice and Seattle twice (and a second Indians' start). Those were arguably the three of the worst offenses (along with TOR) in the AL for most of last season. and they still have 4 other starters too. I'm not as high on Liriano as most, but he was dominant when he came up last year and they have a loaded rotation. As of this second, and I know a lot is going to change, the Twins are probably the favorites to win the division.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Dec 10, 2008 -> 03:10 AM) Can you isolate that statistic for occasions when Konerko came up to bat with runners on 1st or runners on 1st and 2nd (or bases loaded)...whether he was more likely to GIDP, single or hit a homer? Weren't many of his HR's solo shots? Also, with Konerko, last year was something of a statistical anomaly because of his injuries which wiped out the first half of the season. The player we saw for the last 6 weeks or so was the "healthy/normal" Konerko IMO. He was much worse with a runner on first base, so my initial post is a bit inaccurate as, for whatever reason, I didn't account for solo homers. And yes, 16 of his 22 homers were solo. That's a bit odd only because it doesn't play into what he generally has done throughout his career; 73% of his homers were solo, whereas it's closer to 60% for his career, including last year. However, throughout the year he was also more likely to hit for an extra base hit with men on base (18 XBH to 17 GIDP...yes, I'm cherry picking...anybody else can do it too). Anybody can do what they want, because, as you mentioned, last year was an anomaly for Konerko, and I'd expect something more along the lines of his 2007 season at the very least and quite possibly something to his '04 or '05 seasons, though probably without the 40 homers.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Dec 10, 2008 -> 03:07 AM) I think Marquez was the #8 prospect for the Yankees, maybe as recently as coming into 2008 or 2007. The Royals, with Meche, Greinke, Bannister, Davies, Hochevar/Torres and the Indians Lee, Carmona, Reyes, Lewis, Sowers/Laffey/Jackson would appear to also at least have the potential to be very strong rotations, IF IF IF they pitch up to their potential. From looking at it objectively, the Royals might have the best rotation in our division if Hochevar and Torres pitch as well as expected (unless Liriano gains his 2006 form and not the 2008 version after surgery). If every team has their pitchers pitch up to their potential, there's no rotation I'd take in the AL over Minnesota's. FWIW, and I think it's worth a lot, Liriano had a 2.76 ERA in 11 starts after coming up mid-season.

QUOTE (Princess Dye @ Dec 10, 2008 -> 01:53 AM) Viciedo to outfield i meant as more a down-the-road possibility. Writing him out of the current plans, leaving myself open to being happily surprised if it's anything different. Regarding a potential threesome of Hudson, Alexei and Beckham... i feel there'd be a cf, ss, 2b all in there.. in one form or another. Hudson as an older player could be considered for lf/dh as well one day. Basically, I'll take that problem on my hands if it gets me Hudson at the top of the order. The Central's winnable right now, so we need him there. I lived through Jose Valentin at ss, so I'll gladly live through one of those guys at the position. Let me also point out that Alexei has a lot to prove at ss, and that many are assuming he would better at that than cf in the first place. I would rather have had Valentin's defense at SS last year during his prime than Cabrera's. Valentin made some poor throws and bobbled easy plays, but he also had excellent range as well which more than made up for his mistakes. Jose Valentin was a damn fine defensive shortstop.

QUOTE (SOXOBAMA @ Dec 9, 2008 -> 10:56 PM) Scott Merkin reports that the Kenny hasn't even talked to the Braves since the Javy deal. I guess we got false info from WFAN. Kenny doesn't have to be the one doing the talking.

QUOTE (103 mph screwball @ Dec 9, 2008 -> 11:01 PM) Swisher singles. Cabrera grounds out into a fielders choice. Quentin singles sharply and the runner is held at 3rd. Thome walks the bases loaded. Konerko GIDP. No runs, two hits, a walk, and corpse ball. vs. Pods singles. Steals second. Iguchi grounds out to the right advances runner. Everett flies out with sac fly. Konerko K's. One run, one hit. The Sox need to be able to manufacture runs on 40 degree April and September nights while the boppers are seeking the sage advice from Walker and rubbing bengay on their aging joints. They also need to bash the hell out of the ball at the Cell in July. There needs to be a mix. Besides, only half of the Sox games are played at the Cell. Paul Konerko is more likely to hit a home run than he is to ground into a double play in that spot. Meanwhile, Carl Everett is more likely to ground into a double play than he is hitting a sacrifice fly, though not in the one extreme scenario you highlighted. 2008 - Konerko 22 HR, 17 GIDP 2005 - Everett 10 SF, 11 GIDP You are using a case of extremes in this situation, and it's very likely that the Sox would have gotten atleast 1 and perhaps 2 or 3 in scenario 1. And besides all of that, you are looking at the probability of an event happening in a single scenario, when baseball is and always will be a game of averages.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Dec 9, 2008 -> 10:50 PM) Remember when a determined poster here looked up all of Cabrera's steals and showed how meaningless most of those 19 were? I bet if you look at the first 2-3 months of the White Sox offense in 2005...and combinations of times when Pods got on, stole a base or was moved to 2nd or 3rd by Iguchi bunting or hitting to the opposite field and driving a ball deep into the OF, you'll notice something quite interesting. How many games in a row did we score an early run to take a lead? How many of those games did we win by 1-2 runs because of our emerging lockdown bullpen??? On the contrary, how many games did the pitching staff win simply because they shut down the opposing offense? I want offensive versatility, but if anybody wants the 2005 offense back, they're crazy.

QUOTE (kwolf68 @ Dec 9, 2008 -> 09:39 PM) I hope we stay clear of Furcal due to his very suspect health. If we could gurantee health he'd be a great addition, but he's more likely to break down at some point and thus I'd rather spend the money elsewhere. I agree. I think Furcal's a hell of a player, he's just too damn sketchy to be counted on.

QUOTE (103 mph screwball @ Dec 9, 2008 -> 09:23 PM) The Sox are in stealth mode. I would be shocked and disappointed if the Sox do not acquire a lead off hitter and another more proven or talented starting pitcher. I still stand by Furcal. The fact that Fucal's agent didn't mention the Sox and talked about 4 teams interested does not phase me. KW could have just asked him to keep it quiet or just forget it. KW is deep underground and the payroll stuff is being played up to provide him a realistic cover story. You can tell Furcal's agent to keep it quiet all you want to, he's not going to keep it quiet if it means his client will get more money from other suitors. I really think his back issue is a huge scare factor for the Sox. You could sign him to a 4 year deal and you might not get 162 games out of him.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Dec 9, 2008 -> 09:26 PM) I agree that 33M IS dead weight and that was the point of my post. In this market, you could do a LOT better than Dye, Konerko, and Thome for that money. and for whatever reason the other 29 teams don't realize that

didn't see it posted earlier. From a rotoworld blog entry

QUOTE (BearSox @ Dec 9, 2008 -> 08:38 PM) Yes, but we can dream. I think there's a difference between dream and fantasy.

QUOTE (bighurt4life @ Dec 9, 2008 -> 08:24 PM) You put Beckham at 3B and you lose out on his offensive production. He's supposed to hit 15-25 hr a year at 2B which is above average for that position, at third that is average to below average so you end up losing offense. depending of course upon how good his defense is over there, the batting average he puts up, and his eye at the plate. He could actually be a very valuable 3Bman.

I don't see how the Sox roster will remain the same as it is. I understand building for the future, but with the pieces the Sox have opened up and the lack of depth primarily at starting pitcher, I don't see the Sox merely standing still.

QUOTE (beck72 @ Dec 9, 2008 -> 04:44 AM) The same Scoscia that gave Willits 430 ab's in 2007? Willits was hurt last year. Willits has produced in every year except 2008. Is he an Allstar? No. But he can do the things the sox say they're looking to add-speed, contact, getting on base If we're talking trading Dye, the sox are left with Quentin, for either RF or LF. Who do you propose for the other two spots? Willits was used out of necessity in 2007. Garret Anderson missed 54 games and played another 20 at DH, Vlad Guerrero played in the same number of games as he usually does, but was a DH in 41 games, Gary Matthews Jr missed 20 games, and Willits himself DHed in 14 games simply because Shea Hillenbrand (who was signed to be the DH for the team) was absolutely brutal. Even so, he was really only good because he hit .290, his patience at the plate be damned. He was also fairly mediocre outside of his first half of play. This past year, with Torii Hunter added to the mix, Willits had 25% the number of plate appearances while appearing in 82 games (while he played games in the minors as well). He may have been injured, but he obviously was not a big factor within the offense seeing as how he played in over half of the Angels games but had merely 136 plate appearances the entire season. I might prefer him over Willy Taveras, but both are very dependent upon hitting for a good average. And in either case, I would want both of them hitting 9th in the order, rather than at the top of the order. If the Sox do eventually trade Dye, I'd look for the team to sign Abreu and, if the team had faith in Alexei to take over CF, Furcal at SS because I very much see them merely keeping 2B warm for Beckham at the current moment. I am not sure they do, especially seeing as how KW has said that Alexei is his SS several times, but we shall see. I will say that I could just as easily see CF being solved from within as I could from outside the organization. CF is a tough position to figure out right now.

TIFWIW, but the Reds have reportedly signed Livan Hernandez, and their rotation appears pretty complete right now barring a Harang or Arroyo deal.

QUOTE (kwolf68 @ Dec 8, 2008 -> 12:51 PM) His career avg was .247 and he was in decline before his prime. Swisher was always over-rated...he hit the scene, had a couple nice years, and then Oakland flipped him for another orgs 3 best prospects at the time. A year later, that same Swisher is flipped again, this time for 3 marginal (at best) prospects. In two years, Swish will be dealt for a PTNBL, the guy sucks. Those 3 best prospects now look like an average outfielder, a mediocre starting pitching prospect, and a pitcher coming off a major surgery. I'd say Kenny knew what he was doing too, seeing as how it looks like he gave up 3 marginal prospects too (though Betemit is not a prospect and has actually had pretty good success at the MLB level, though not really recently).

QUOTE (103 mph screwball @ Dec 8, 2008 -> 01:53 PM) How about this to ponder. Would you rather trade for Taveres or pick up Patterson and not give up any talent? If the Sox want speed and he dropped Boras, Patterson is a possibility. I think trading for Taveras is more valuable simply because you don't have to give up an extra 40-man spot for him, assuming you trade someone on the 40-man for him.

I will say that this feels a bit like the 2006-07 offseason, but that this time the Sox actually have a young core to build around both in the rotation and the lineup. And we're barely a month into the offseason, so there's plenty of time for other action too.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Dec 9, 2008 -> 02:26 AM) Well, yes, by definition, all of the players we brought in before 2005 were "complementary." L. Vizcaino El Duque (I think he was the MOST expensive, around $5.5-6.5 million?) Tad Iguchi (KW never even saw him play in person, just went off videotape) AJ (had worn out his welcome quickly in SF) Jermaine Dye (coming off injury, uncertain future at that point after the broken leg and other injuries) Dustin Hermanson Scott Podsednik Of course, the main difference is we didn't sign any of them or bring them in on LONG-TERM (3+ years) FA deals and they certainly weren't making anywhere close to $10 million per season...El Duque was the closest. I don't view any of those players on the same scale as I do a Brian Roberts or Orlando Hudson. And neither Roberts nor Hudson nor any other player brought in will be brought in on a long-term basis. The most I'd see Hudson signing with the Sox for is 3 years plus some type of option for the 4th year, Roberts would be here only 1 year, and anybody else will probably be 3 years or less. If you really want to dig a bit, Linebrink's contract is probably the one outlier out of everyone's, and that probably has everything to do with Williams wanting him badly.

because Havy Vazquez sucks and is no longer on the White Sox, I absolutely demand that my member title be "Gavin Halladay"

qwertyworld says that the Sox might be in the running for Ramon Vazquez as a utility infielder. Apparently they missed it when the Sox traded for Lillibridge and Betemit while also having Getz in the system too. Anyways, that would be a more than disappointing signing.

Character and integrity play a role in making the Hall too. I'm not going to take a side, but whining and campaigning to be elected into the hall of game doesn't show much of either of those two.