caulfield12

Dodgers seem to be more focused on Luis Castillo despite Bellinger slide and Taylor injury…

Solves RF and LHB and LHP issues in one fell swoop. The timeline with 1 1/2 years vs. 2 1/2 for Soto is a bit off…I think you can only make this move you’re willing to shell out something like 3/$150-180 for 2024-26 or some of the suggested 4-5 year deals rather than 7-8 year timelines which don’t fit the window. Then again, that means a lowered cost of acquisition and you also have the Angels potentially salivating about Andrew Vaughn as well due to the Pac-12 roots and maybe Eloy Jimenez plus all the prospect names thrown around in the Soto discussion are the two centerpieces. Of course it also depends if they want to keep Vaughn at LF/RF/DH forever, where his valued is tamped down.

Shohei Ohtani, DH/RHP, Angels No player would instantly draw more attention on the trade market than Ohtani, who is following up his 2021 AL MVP season with another spectacular year. In the past month, Ohtani has four homers, 11 RBIs and an .883 OPS in 21 games – oh, and he’s also gone 4-0 with a 0.34 ERA in four starts. Ohtani won’t be a free agent until the end of 2023, and given the current state of the Angels, this might be the highest Ohtani’s value will ever be. Potential fits: Mets, Padres, Yankees by Mark Feinsand, mlb.com Plus, they already have the “Cuban Ohtani” in Oscar Colas…and they wouldn’t have to absorb the Patrick Corbin deal. Ohtani stands ahead of the pack here in a majority of categories, with time missed & innings per start being his Achilles heel to date. Running this through the algorithm (money/stats/age) spits out a 7 year, $206M contract - for Ohtani the pitcher. #1 AGENT’S TAKE: HE’S A DUAL PLAYER - TAKE IT OR LEAVE IT The simplest starting point is the argument every agent in the world would make: Here’s our player, we expect him to be this forever, pay him accordingly. He’s a $29.5M pitcher, and a $25.2M hitter, and he does both full-time, so that makes him a $54.7M baseball player. He’ll be 29 years old, and thus commands a minimum 8 year contract. Crazy, right? This would be the largest total value contract in MLB history by more than $11M (Trout, $426.5M), with the highest average salary in MLB history by more than $11M (Scherzer, $43.3M). But let’s think about it this way. Shohei Ohtani projects to strike out 239 batters per 162 games. He also projects to hit 44 home runs and steal 24 bags over those 162 games. How much would a free agent who strikes out 239 batters a year be worth to a contending team, $30M? How much would a 44 HR/24 SB free agent position player be worth to a contending team, $30M? ….. Will teams be tempted to offer Shohei Ohtani an over-market-value smaller contract, especially with a short leash on his ability to pitch full-time, and the heightened risk of injury as he ages? (From Above) How much would a free agent who strikes out 239 batters a year be worth to a contending team, $30M? How much would a 44 HR/24 SB free agent position player be worth to a contending team, $30M? What if 3 years won’t cut it for Ohtani (it won’t). Will 5 years at a slightly higher than market value AAV get the job done?

If you waited like the Twins did with Buxton, until the very last possible moment, you’re really taking a chance. What would Buxton be getting this year in FA if if if he remains healthy? Luckily he gave the Twins a significant hometown discount because he’s comfortable there and also to reward the franchise for being so patient with him. Exhibit A. Losing Rodon, and nobody was for signing him to an extension earlier in his career. Now we have nothing to show for him. Not even a compensatory pick. Would the White Sox really be better off with Burger at 3B next year? And if Robert puts everything together as originally envisioned, he’s looking at almost the same amount of money as Juan Soto in FA and good as gone. Odds of replacing him with JR/Hahn in charge? Robert has already been worth 6.9 fWAR, so you’re pretty much getting a bargain there even at 75-80%. Vaughn, who we foolishly lost an additional year of control and Eloy at least are debatable due to their lack of playing premium positions and/or limited defensive upside.

Going by this line of thinking, we never in a million years would have traded for Jose Contreras…picked up Bobby Jenks off waivers, bet on Pods rebounding, taken a chance on a player they’d only seen on tape in Iguchi and certainly never would have signed Dye and AJ with all the uncertainty around them at that time. Nor would Carl Everett have ever been on that team, either. The White Sox are never that team that spends at the top of the market…at least not this century. Michael Conforto would be a reasonable bounce back bet in a world where our payroll flexibility is definitely going to be limited barring some unforeseen trip to the ALCS or World Series. We have to take advantage of these opportunities. We really lucked out with Abreu only have three major suitors in 2013-14. Otoh, we completely blew our shots at Machado and Harper when we actually had the payroll flexibility. There aren’t many bullets left to fire.

Pollock won a Gold Glove in 2017. Grandal was noted for his framing and always graded either positive or neutral. Anderson Moncada and Robert all have the ability to be the best at their positions. How do you explain how all those players, including Abreu, have regressed so much? What did Robin Ventura, noted as one of the worst Sox managers of all time, do to turn the 2012 Sox defense from one of the worst in 2011 to one of the best in 2012 with many of the same players? Why can't TLR and this coaching staff at least get them to be "average"?

Might as well bring back Gonzalez and Yermin while they're at it...

Rick Hahn, however, does not.

So less than we’re already paying Pollock for the next season and a half…

2005 White Sox Everett/Thomas Dye Crede Konerko AJ Uribe and Iguchi average speed, Rowand above average then and Pods the only speedster. That team still is slower than Robert, Moncada, Anderson, Engel, Leury…Sheets and Pollock with decent speed in the OF. And even Burger and Abreu have gotten a number on infield/hustle hits.

Considering the fact everyone is putting Corbin Carroll and Druw Jones in the 2026 All-Star game already…it’s going to be difficult to live up to those lofty expectations.

https://nypost.com/2022/07/19/struggling-joey-gallo-seeks-return-to-norm-for-yankees/ “… I do know that there are a lot of teams that feel that Joey in their market and their uniform would be more of the normal than what he is in New York. But right now, he’s on a winning team, he’s on a team that’s doing very well, he can be a major contributor to it … and really the job of us is to get him most comfortable and get him back to being at his norm.” Scott Boras Well, there’s always the Gallo for Pollock trade…since Pollock can’t be much worse for the White Sox and Pollock has so much experience with championship-caliber teams in LA.

https://nypost.com/2022/07/20/juan-soto-trade-talks-may-be-telling-of-yankees-hal-steinbrenner/ “Cashman has seen it all in his quarter century on the job, and frankly, I don’t think we’re going to learn much about him between now and 6 p.m. on Aug. 2. He’s highly qualified to determine if a prospects-plus package headlined by Anthony Volpe is a price worth paying for Soto. But if the GM does come to temporary terms with his Washington counterpart, Mike Rizzo, I do think we will learn something about Hal Steinbrenner. As in, just how badly the Yankees owner wants to win. Yes, of course, everyone wants to win. But there is a vast difference between saying that you want to win and acting like you need to win. Steinbrenner’s decision on whether to approve a Soto acquisition and the potential half-billion dollar contract to come after 2024 — on top of a potential monster contract for Aaron Judge and existing monster deals for Gerrit Cole and Giancarlo Stanton — would identify which camp he’s in. Up front, understand that employing the 23-year-old Soto for three postseason runs alone would be worth just about anything Rizzo could ask for. Now in Double-A ball, the 21-year-old Volpe might be a long-term Yankees shortstop out of central casting as a supremely talented Jersey Boy who idolized Derek Jeter.”

What are the four teams?

Raise your hand if you feel confident the White Sox are going to run out a $200+ million payroll next year??? No qualifications, like they make the playoffs or trade for Soto…will they or won’t they exceed $200 million for the first time in club history?

How would Bryan Reynolds be termed reasonable…compared to Happ, who the Cubs pretty much have to get rid of since they’re basically blowing the whole team up other than Seizuki, Stroman and maybe Hendricks? Eventually the Pirates are going to stop making dumb trades and incorrect talent evaluations (Polanco, for one).

How can a team with potential All-Stars at every position be behind the Twins and Guardians after nearly 100 games? Sure, Abreu and Anderson. Robert and Vaughn, although he would never make it in LF or 1B voting. Moncada. Grandal before he forgot how to hit and walk. Last time I checked, at least for the last twenty years, the best White Sox teams were not necessarily the most talented ones but the ones who played best together as a cohesive unit. 2005 team will only have one Hall of Famer, who didn't even impact that postseason. Even if they DO have the potential, what makes anyone believe TLR is the right manager to get them to play to that projected/potential level? Blind faith?

Because trading for Soto assumes a bump in payroll into the $205-210 million range…based on what he will get in arbitration next year. And because there’s no palatable trade package that works without Vaughn going to Washington. If they’re selling that franchise, they’ll need something they can actually sell to a prospective owner as well as the fanbase, rather than players that are still 2-3 years away from the big leagues. They have scouted Jimenez exhaustively enough to know that he’s too risky as a centerpiece when the foundation for any hitter is the lower body.

I don’t think ANYONE in the front office even once dreamed Schwarber or Castellanos. If they had, we wouldn’t have gotten stuck with Pollock/Eloy/Vaughn/Sheets in the outfield. If Schwarber was the plan from the beginning, they never would have exercised the Kimbrel option in the first place.

Realistically explain how the White Sox compete on a $200 million payroll this year or next with Vaughn subtracted and Soto’s $17 million added…not to mention massive arbitration increases the next two years. Everyone’s acting like teams are lining up to take Eloy, Lynn, Pollock, Jimenez, etc., off their hands…not to mention Grandal, Kelly and Leury.

It’s not like Dye and Pods and Contreras and AJ and Hermanson were at peak value in 2004-05, either. Garcia was the only one who could be characterized this way. Risk/reward. Opportunity cost.

Haven’t we all learned from watching Trout and Ohtani? Does Soto even guarantee a playoff team these next three years when you’re already having to replace Giolito and Tim Anderson after 2023 and 2024…assuming you don’t trade Montgomery, he’s your rookie SS that final Soto season, if not earlier. You have the worst prospects after 2024 of any team in baseball…looking at repeating 2016-2019 all over again. And one of the oldest and smallest stadiums in baseball in terms of generating revenue. Besides the fact the primary way this all works is if Abreu doesn’t regress, Lynn suddenly returns to 2019-21 form, Cease and/or Kopech stay healthy, Grandal returns to form, Hendriks/Graveman/Kelly/Lopez stay healthy, Robert and/or Moncada are close to superstars and you can somehow solve the Eloy/Vaughn/Pollock logjam. There’s just way too many variables for Soto (assuming full health) to override all that. And it’s not like Soto is accruing tons of value for his defense or baserunning. It would have been ten times more logical to simply sign Harper when they had the opportunity and there was no prospect cost nor ticking clock of when he was going to leave as well. The White Sox name is only thrown in there to generate fan interest. Bait and switch. Rinse and repeat.

6. Mariners The surging Mariners have some of the best young talent in the majors and could use it to headline a package to acquire Soto if they decided to be aggressive. OF Julio Rodriguez isn’t going anywhere, but one of RHPs George Kirby or Logan Gilbert would likely have to be included in any package for Soto. From there, the Mariners could pull together multiple combinations from a farm system that includes talented young shortstops Noelvi Marte and Edwin Arroyo and a wealth of young righthanders including Matt Brash, Emerson Hancock, Taylor Dollard and Bryce Miller. A package of prospects alone wouldn’t be enough to grab Soto, but in the unlikely event the Mariners decided to include one of their young starters, they could do it. Personally, I don’t see the Mariners parting with Kirby or Gilbert. That said, if you think of all the franchises most desperate to get to the World Series, the Mariners would be right up there in the Top 3 or so. There’s so much hype around Julio Rodriguez and the team in general at the moment, they’re even opening up the RF upper deck for the first time in ages against the Astros this weekend. The Guardians would be up there as well because of their farm system depth. Both the AL Central leaders would fit if you dream big. Perhaps the Twins also believe that Carlos Correa would stick around for another season at least were they to make such a move to add Soto to Buxton/Correa…? With Royce Lewis out with his second major knee injury, and not wanting to shift Polanco back to SS next year, it starts to make more sense. Mets, Padres, Dodgers and Yankees still have to be the favorites should they choose to pursue it.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/which-teams-have-the-prospect-talent-to-acquire-juan-soto/

Brash (and especially Crochet) are too volatile…most still believe Brash ends up as a reliever. “Control and Command: Good command for a pitcher of his size and effort, though over extended outings it could become a concern thanks to violent delivery. Good relief profile. Control: 50 | Command: 50 Overall: Brash has an outside shot at starting at the big league level, though that will be incumbent on the development of his breaking ball and improving his delivery and body can hold up over the duration of long outings. As it stands, he projects to be a plus fastball guy with a good supporting off-speed pitch and a get-me-over breaking ball. OFP: 35 Role: 30 - Up/Down Emergency Depth Risk: High” https://www.prospectslive.com/scoutingreports/matt-brash