caulfield12

Because of last year...

Giolito and Rodon recently have really gotten hurt with their changeups...

Indians up 3-1 on Means, still hitting behind Cy Civale. Yay, Leury might not be available for the ninth due to getting banged up diving into home late yesterday. 99 mph from Ruiz. Yermin holding his own and giving some good targets.

Mendick also broke the wrong way defensively earlier in the game...looks increasingly like he’s the odd man out.

But this gets to something I’ve been stewing on for years, and wrote an article at BP about. Why is spin rate so important to pitchers? In Sawchick’s article, he says, “More spin means more Magnus effect, which is the invisible force governing most pitch movement.” But this isn’t quite right: active spin can lead to movement, but you can boost your spin rate by cutting the ball, which is how Garrett Richards can have one of the spinniest fastballs in the game, but well *below* average movement. If the idea is that spin is the raw material for Magnus-based movement, why not just measure – and stay with me here – Magnus-based movement? Given its correlation with velocity (more velo, more spin), it’s even harder to isolate the value that it can add absent a whole bunch of caveats. This is why Marcus Stroman can be effective despite a sinker with above-average spin but below-average spin efficiency, for example. I looked at Kendall Graveman’s spin rate, partially out of curiosity and partly to see if his turbo-sinker was as high-spin as it looks. The answer: no, it’s not. Graveman’s sinker gets only average spin, and thus below-average Bauer units given its high velocity. And what’s more, that spin rate has gone *down* – and markedly – in recent years. I went and looked at perhaps the most famous turbo-sinker in the game, Blake Treinen’s, and the same pattern held: he had pretty good spin rates in his 2018 Oakland peak, but it’s dropped off in each year since, and is now in a statistical dead heat with Marco Gonzales’ non-turbo-sinker. In spin efficiency and Bauer units, Gonzales “beats” both Treinen and Graveman’s pitches handily. But, and I know this is a stat-focused blog, just *watch the pitches.* Some of this has to do with the seam-shifted wake, the fact that another force can cause a pitch to move than just the Magnus effect. This seems particularly true for Stroman, for example, and may also be at play with Justus Sheffield, the M’s starter tonight. But whatever the reason, it’s not simply the case that spin leads directly to movement, and it’s not the case that spin (in and of itself) leads to effectiveness. Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff, or Bauer himself and Yu Darvish, have been very successful and create tons of spin. But they all throw really, really hard. Bauer gets a ton of movement, while Woodruff doesn’t. And pitchers like Jack Flaherty, Shane Bieber, and Blake Treinen can be successful despite average fastball spin. Still, tell that to the pitchers. This season’s seen a ton of talk about cracking down on foreign substances. Mike Schildt’s press convo after his pitcher had his hat confiscated was the most famous example, but there’s constant chatter about the league taking balls to sample. Today’s word that they may begin, uh, doing something with all the evidence they presumably have plays into it. It seems that pitchers have seen what’s happened to Bauer and Cole’s spin rates over the years, and are trying new things to increase their grip on the ball. If a non-athlete reporter like Sawchick could add 400 rpms by using something, hey, what could they add? I’m sure a lot of pitchers are using stuff, but I keep thinking that if some of these new substances were that transformative, we’d see it in league-wide spin rates and movement patterns in a magnitude that would jump off the page. We DO see spin rate inching up, but then, so is velo. Movement’s up too, but as Rob Arthur mentioned, much of that could be due to the baseball being lighter. Marc W. http://www.ussmariner.com

Down to .101, yikes. Surely they won’t allow him to fall much further? 8 for 81= .099

17th out of 38 MLB second basemen with 120+ plate appearances in terms of fWAR. So above average, by definition. If we change it to 100+ PA at second, 17/47, or roughly top third in MLB for his position. Semien, Altuve, Merrifield, Polanco, Solak, Lowe in AL lead him. Wong, now, injured, 7th. Pretty decent company to be right there with those last 3-4 names as a rookie.

Don’t listen to Jerksticks’ intentionally overly-optimistic satirical posts.

Yet Another Ron? Who’s next, LeFlore? Blomberg?

Just watched the condensed game replay. Jose looked like he was trying a delayed go for second thing the outfielder was napping...not even close. Hamilton was just a bit shaded to RCF against Cabrera. I’d say roughly 25% of MLB CFers make that play.

Can’t imagine the vibes with Eloy back...add Cespedes into the mix if they leave Engel down in Charlotte forever. That’s not going to happen this year, of course, but I can just imagine Burger contributing this year and not being totally shocked. Speaking of overcoming adversity.

376...376...376.

#3 hole hitter for the Mets tonight. McCann just got tossed in the top of the ninth in SD. Has got his OPS at least back into the mid 600’s.

Or they’re having a lot more fun than we’re aware of out on road trips...

Maybe more careful with Schoop on Saturday and Sunday!!! Castro also seems to get key hits against the Sox, and now Haase. Along with Candelario, Baddoo and Grossman, that’s their entire offense.

Hahahaha...because everyone skillfully hits guys with a 94 Mph change and 98-102 mph FB.

Gee, that doesn’t sound exactly like you attempting to copy a certain ex-president there numbered 45.

I’m sure you showed up just in time for Abreu critically moving Moncada across the diamond...

Why not TLR? Can use the Machado jeweler...btw, he just tied McGraw, so why not live it up a little?

Good luck with that...by every definition, the White Sox have been pushed to the brink by Detroit for two games now. Couldn’t have been any closer. Shout out to Crochet finally doing what he was drafted to do after being missing in action for two months, seemingly. Or misused. TLR just tied John McGraw for second all-time in managerial wins.

Clutch late...

For who? Burdi? Wright? Medeiros? Burr?

Just snapped an 0/25 streak from Mercedes.

Is LaRussa insane?

Well, at least Ron is happy now.