caulfield12

Me, cute? I guess I need to be more literal next time and spell it out explicitly. “A rapidly escalating outbreak has plateaued, and come down faster than would have been expected. Back of the envelope, it's hundreds of thousands of people in China that did not get Covid-19 because of this aggressive response.” NY Times Dr. Aylward didn’t mean the draconian measures here, people being locked inside apartments just for being suspected of being ill, closing pharmacies to force lots of people who had other health problems into hospitals and likely infected, bribing people to turn sick people into authorities, 40000 person banquets with 12000+ shared dishes weeks after they knew there was a serious problem, command structure which caused local officials to wait for Beijing to decide after keeping it quiet for weeks, whistle blowing doctors and reporters disappeared or reprimanded...there are 50 things I could point out that China messed up that made things much worse.

What I was saying was that Bruce Aylward is the WHO’s version of Tony Fauci...to put it in proper perspective.

Lol. Totally conciliatory for one day towards Asians and preaching bipartisanship. Pushing this drug that has poisoned someone in Nigeria as well...I automatically looked up the patent and assumed a family or Cabinet member had a vested interest in Mylan. https://www.mylan.com/en/about-mylan/leadership

Day 5....but many imported by travelers into Hong Kong, Beijing and Shanghai.

This is from the Dr. Tony Fauci of the WHO (meaning corresponding equivalent, since few know him yet.)

We are not Venezuela or Cuba or Sandanistas! Of course, the reality is many northern European countries are nationalized in various industries, and China has the best record of bringing people out of poverty to middle class in the last fifty years. Singapore, yet another example. Nobody wants to have that more nuanced conversation. Too complicated.

You didn’t read carefully. He has been criticized for being too complimentary of China, but one of the true experts in the world.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-ever-away-heres-one-094824995.html This is from the Dr. Tony Fauci of the WHO, lots of great information and predictions/forecasts...

Who wants to be on record against saving American lives when they run for re-election? Biggest stimulus package in Congressional history...the no’s will be less than 10. Bernie Sanders or Warren could be two no’s as well...but Warren is tacking back to center for VP consideration.

#AloneTogether

UK locked down by PM Boris Johnson...

The final bill will be almost unanimous...except for contrarians like Paul and Lee if they vote. Dow now down 37%, right around Election Day, 2016, numbers. 57% fall in 2008-09.

Governors Hogan, Baker, Inslee, DeWine, Cuomo have been really impressive, fwiw. The juxtaposition is pretty jarring when you compare Congress/executive branch to local levels.

Thanks. New angle is that vaping among young people is contributing to alarming numbers under age 35.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/22/opinion/coronavirus-economy.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage Thomas Friedman, Dr. Adam Katz and Governor Cuomo seem to be coalescing around this plan. Can anyone summarize? Am blocked behind paywall, didn't follow interview/conversation with Friedman and Jake Tapper closely enough...

That’s way way way too extreme.

22 min ago Dow tumbles 700 points after Senate procedural vote fails a second time From CNN Business' David Goldman US stocks sank sharply again this afternoon after Senate Democrats blocked a coronavirus economic stimulus bill from advancing. It was the second time in two days Democrats blocked the measure as talks over the giant bill continue. The Dow, which had been moderately lower earlier in the day, fell 700 points, or 3.7%. The S&P 500 fell 3.6% and the Nasdaq was down 1.5%.

We don’t have unions in China, so schools have 90-95% of the power over employees. That said, we have leverage in the sense almost nobody from US, UK, Canada, etc., wants to head off and start a new career in Wuhan, China, of all places.

We’ll see what happens. I have enough savings to muddle through 4-5 months of this, but the prices of international flights alone are going crazy. There's definitely going to be a high attrition rate for single teachers with no ties to China. With a wife, kid and even mother in law, going back to the US would put them in more harm than here (well, Iowa is relatively isolated) and also into two week quarantines at US military bases. Just as importantly, no health insurance in the US, obviously. The students who aren’t graduating should be returning to school in about 2-3 weeks. Guess we will see then. On that regular schedule, I had five classes of seniors (30-35 students) but online now I have five classes of 70-100 (332 total.) Probably my biggest “added value” area is helping about half the graduating students each year with essay/US application guidance, so that skillset will be necessary regardless. One of my co-workers is quitting to start a consulting agency with another teacher...and I considered joining, but it seemed too risky at age 50 to leave guaranteed five year contract and free tuition for my son in one year, when he reaches first grade (saving $13,000 per year). I should be okay, hopefully. But it will quickly get interesting depending on how the school responds. We are branching into elementary and just added Grades 7-9 in the past three years, so they’re extended financially with three campuses running. Economy of scale doesn’t exactly exist.

The one encouraging number (so far) has been mortality rates much closer to countries like South Korea or Germany. But the idea of things letting up at the end of 15 days is absolutely nonsense...novel viruses don’t work that way. We’re still 21-31 days from NYC peak, and they’re already worried about making it through the weekend, and reusing masks, bandannas, etc. If we follow trends in Italy and China, that’s anywhere from a 7.5-10% infection rate with doctors and nurses. Disastrous, potentially...even bringing back retired and pushing forward medical and nursing school students onto the battlefield.

We pretty much just lost our jobs. CIE followed suit with IB and cancelled all A-Levels exams around the world. Now the question becomes what they do with online teaching (students not in Grade 12), planning, Extended Essays, personal statements, etc. The local/Chinese teachers who were working online were just at 30% of previous salaries. That said, the students paid all their school fees at the beginning of the year, so the parents of current seniors aren’t going to ask for partial refunds (tuition around $15-17,500 for most) but things are going to get dicey for Grades 7-11. The students I was working with have their AS (Grade 11) exams cancelled and will go with internal/predicted grades instead. It’s going to be quite the mess for university admissions offices to sort out. Glad that’s not my job, at least. If they cut salaries, until August, we will lose 50-75% of teachers. And good luck recruiting new intl. teachers (maybe recent US education graduates desperate for any job with hiring freezes) to come to Wuhan, Coronavirus Central.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/22/feds-bullard-coronavirus-shutdown-not-a-recession-an-investment-in-survival.html Cramer was right on Zoom and Teledoc...at least for now The US economy is expected to contract and unemployment is expected to jump in the second quarter of the year. "This is a planned temporary shutdown of the US economy. This is going to be, throttle back the US economy from what it usually is," said James Bullard, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, on CNN's "First Move." The US will be missing around $2.5 trillion worth of second-quarter income because of that "throttling back" -- roughly half normal output. “So that is what Congress is trying to bridge. That is the revenue that isn't there for businesses. That's the income that isn't there for households,” Bullard told CNN’s Julia Chatterley. Unemployment insurance programs will help keep Americans whole during this period, Bullard added. He earlier told Bloomberg that the unemployment rate could jump to as high as 30%. The point of the various stimulus programs -- which would better be called "insurance programs," said Bullard -- is to have the economy completely intact when we emerge from the coronavirus crisis. cnn.com

Well, we could do this with pretty much every president. Bay of Pigs. Cuban Missile Crisis. Or we could dredge up all the criticisms of the Ebola crisis from 2014. In the end, the people will judge in November.

https://news.yahoo.com/why-italy-coronavirus-death-toll-162100030.html Italy and Spain have struggled because they are more social and thought the herd immunity (see UK) would be effective alone, without extensive testing...until they realized their health care system would be overrun. Now they need to ask for US troops to enforce the quarantine.