caulfield12

Costs too much.

Merely to make a point to the other owners...not because he really wanted to keep him on the payroll long term.

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/articles/blue-jays-signing-dylan-cease-155029540.html Blue Jays are signing Dylan Cease: Here’s 3 reasons why the move will backfire "According to StatMuse, Cease has pitched to a 4.61 ERA across 29 outings against AL East teams in his career. He has struck out 199 hitters and recorded a 7-8 overall record as well. For the most part, Cease has failed to find success against the division, but the situation becomes even more concerning when looking at his numbers versus specific ball clubs. The New York Yankees — who will likely be the Blue Jays’ biggest threat for the division crown — have absolutely dominated Cease over the years. In six starts, Cease has a lackluster 5.34 ERA and has given up five home runs. It gets even worse for Cease against the Boston Red Sox, as his 6.04 ERA versus the team is concerning.'

They do now have ONE sole scout now covering the entire NPB and KBO and Taiwan to boot!!! That's also what tends to happen when you spend just $94.7 million per year on 2024-2026 payroll during an era when the mid market teams need to be in that $135-150 million range just to be competitive for a post season spot (unless you're as resource allocation efficient as CLE and MIL). Not enough talent and farm system depth to cover up all the holes when you refuse to even play in the Tier B/C free agency pool. Everything is riding on the 2026 draft...but still two 1 1/2 to 2 more rebuilding seasons at a minimum if you hit on that pick.

"At a minimum, the Blue Jays get a solid middle-of-the rotation starter to go with Kevin Gausman, Trey Yesavage, Shane Bieber and Jose Berrios. The good version of Cease is a No. 2 starter who sometimes looks like an ace. If Bieber is healthy for the entire season and Berrios' late-season elbow inflammation was just temporary, that's a rotation that could be as good as any in the game. We knew the Jays were going to strike big this offseason. This might not be their only move of consequence."-- Schoenfield Grade B https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/46994593/2025-26-mlb-offseason-grades-free-agency-trade-analysis

Table 8 filled with all the Japanese players drinking Asahi...

fWAR 4.5 4.4 3.6 (traded at a low) 4.7 3.4 Worth about $25-26 million based just on this past year...but average fWaR over last five seasons is exactly in line with performance and FA contracts over the last decade. Just the current price of doing business with the true heavyweight franchises. Two extra years added for being near top of class premium tier along with Valdez Suarez Imai.

Like the Dodgers...they have insurance now for injuries/non-performance in their starting rotation. As things currently stand, the Blue Jays have a potential juggernaut of a starting staff set up for next season, with Cease joining Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber (who opted in for 2026), Trey Yesavage, and Jose Berrios to line up a fearsome five-some. If they can then go ahead and convince Imai he gives them the best opportunity to take down the Dodgers...he will likely sign with Toronto. We saw all the evidence of that in a 7+ game World Series. Perhaps top pitching prospect Gage Stanifer (No. 6) could join him soon, too, but regardless of how well 2026 goes for this farm system, the 2027 rotation needed help. And there's also Eric Lauer and the possibility of bringing back Chris Bassitt as well for a swing role.

Valdez Imai and Suarez are going to get paid...Michael King might be the bargain or could easily implode from a durability standpoint due the bulk of his career coming as a short reliever. Ofc that also comes without Cease or Valdez mileage.

For who though? Quero Vargas or Sosa? Quero would replace Contreras...

TJ initial surgeries usually don't hold for more than a decade or more. Not with how many high stress innings he has pitched since then...

Cubs fans are going to get frustrated...but they're around tenth in payroll and it's not like they stopped showing up for games since the last playoff window closed. In some ways, they're the victims of their own popularity as Ricketts can get by with second and third place teams. Not like the Sox are threatening them in any way, either. They DO pretty much need that ace though, unless they're really counting more than everyone else on Steele's comeback and Horton taking that next step. And Boyd just can't keep it up IMO.

I think it's closer to 1.5, but point still stands. fWAR had Meidroth leading entire team at 3.1, that might be even scarier

4D Sodoku

"The Toronto Blue Jays could have one of the best rotations in baseball next season if everything works out according to plan, they could potentially have: Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, Dylan Cease, Tatsuya Imai and Trey Yesavage"...(which would make Jose Berrios their #6.) bluejaysinsider.com In February, Hank Steinbrenner said he might support a salary cap proposal as long as it contains a provision mandating minimum payrolls. MLB has had a luxury tax in place since 2003 but is the only one of the four major U.S. professional leagues without a salary cap.

Giolito will be a really interesting case once Big 3 off the market... Watch the Sox sign Bassitt or Quintana if their asking prices come way down.

Can't spend even half that with debt overhang in the mid $100's... Sox spending just 30% of that on entire team (including Robert for now). Right now on target for roughly $62 million.

Todd Ritchie deal was really bad fwiw. Alex Rios contract pickup. Traumatized Greg for a decade. First Peavy trade in 2009 to SD. Dunn acquisition broke his tenure.

Jason Bourgeois?

Royals have this problem, but also have Arrow head in the same complex with miles of parking lots and at one point a Taco Bell, FCA building and Drury Inn...

At least he had the winning record to match up with almost any former Sox GM. Almost always had competitive teans, with few exceptions.

As opposed to "can't afford to waste another year" quickly turning into a lost half decade.

Harper was the right pick to really transform the franchise at that time and as it turned out Moncada had his best season in 2019.

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/articles/red-sox-cardinals-trade-grades-190549999.html

Anyone can scout the NPB with the wonders of modern technology. But having a scout there that speaks the language, invests the time to build the relationships, respects the regimented culture and style of play...they're going to have a huge head start when those 4-5 players are posted each and every season now. They also would attend the Koshien national high school tourney in Osaka and start making the connections when the kids are just 16-17, which will eventually mean a lot to the parents when it comes to signing a pro contract in terms of that trust vs. "complete unknown or wild card" factor.