caulfield12

QUOTE (JUSTgottaBELIEVE @ Sep 14, 2016 -> 05:32 AM) To think a full rebuild will result in immediate success (I.e. more wins than this season) is one of the sillier arguments I have seen on here in some time. Also, DA and SS2K are absolutely right in that a Sale trade would signal full rebuild to the fans and absolutely negatively impact attendence and overall fan interest next season even if they get a package of Moncada and Benintendi in return. Moncada has struck out in his last 8 at-bats. If that happened in a White Sox uni combined with an OPS in the Carlos Sanchez range over an entire season, which wouldn't be surprising for a kid just getting his feet wet in the big leagues, that's sure to get Sox fans excited and out to the ballpark. Ventura started 0 or 1 for 41 or whatever. Don't recall anyone getting that discouraged about Robin because of his pedigree. Moncada started off quite slowly in the Sally League last year as well. Btw, why would he have that low an OPS (500's) playing in Boston's line-up? A better comp would be Buxton (than Carlos), but Moncada's going to be a much better hitter without the defensive prowess. Would a team of James Shields, Billy Butler, a shaky bullpen, Narvaez, Leury or Sanchez on the roster and Coats/Avi sharing AB's do better attendance-wise if you still kept Sale, Q and Rodon?

QUOTE (2005thxfrthmmrs @ Sep 14, 2016 -> 03:40 AM) From a fWAR perspective, if we want to be a playoff team, we need at least 36 WAR's (~18 offense, 14 starting pitching and 4 bullpen, according to 2015 and 2016 numbers), . Here's how the potential returning players for 2017 could fare: Offense: C - Navaez/whoever the starter is 0.5 WAR 1B - TBD 2B - Saladino - 1.5 WAR 3B - Frazier - 2.5 WAR (if BABIP theory is true) SS - Anderson - 3 WAR (projecting growth in year 2) LF - Melky - 1.2 WAR CF - TBD RF - Eaton - 4.5 WAR DH - Abreu - 2.5 WAR (time to move him DH) Bench - 0.3 WAR Total minus TBD - 16 WAR Ideally we'd move Abreu to DH to hide his shortcomings defensively, however, I do not think the Sox would end up doing that, so whoever they bring in as DH and Abreu would combine to total of 2.5 WAR. We'd need a 2 WAR CF (Ideally 3-4 WAR, if the other players do not meet their projections) to make the lineup at least playoff caliber. So someone like Blackmon, Cespedes, or Inciarte (would make the OF defense much better) would be ideal. Starting Pitchers 1. Sale - 5 WAR (easily 6+) 2. Quintana - 5 WAR 3. Rodon - 3.5 WAR (is 2017 his breakout year?) 4. Shields 0 WAR (could be much worse, please release him) 5. Gonzalez - 1.5 WAR Total 14 WAR Our 1-2 is top notch. Rodon is teasing us in second half again and could put it together next year. Gonzalez is better than expected and should hold his own as number 5. Shields killed us this year, we must release him (though I don't see it happening). If we could get a reliable #4 (~2-3 WAR), this is comfortably a playoff quality rotation. But I'm doubtful we could do anything to improve, and I do not think Fulmer/Burdi will be the answer in 2017. Bullpen 2016 =3.2 WAR, could finish ~3.5. Need more pieces in 2017 But WAR does not factor in how many blown opportunities we had as a team. In a perfect world, we need a more consistent closer (however I think Robertson sticks around, and I do not want to see Jones closing). We definitely need another quality lefty, and another solid contributor. Pencilling in at the moment as Robertson, Jones, LHP FA signing, Jennings, Ynoa, FA Signing or Juan Minaya (I think he has potential) In summary, we have the pieces, should be close to a 30 WAR team, but would need the following to be a contender in 2017: - Another core player, preferably a high end CF - A quality DH - A quality lefty out of the pen - Shields to not wet the bed every time he starts . If Hanh/KW wants to go all in, we need to move Abreu to DH, both the eye test and advance stats tell us he hurts on the field more than he helps. We also need to move Robertson off the closer role and get ourselves a more consistent and reliable closer. To me these two are long shot but are must moves, otherwise we will hang around the WC for much of the year and end up missing by a few games. A lot of people here are projecting Saladino at 2.5+, we'll just have to wait and see on that. I don't think you'll see them going after Kenley J. or Chapman because they'll trade Robertson and move Burdi or Jones into that role to save money or possibly keep all three (definitely won't add another from outside)...of course, as mentioned above, any entire team can fray with one loose end in the bullpen. That 7th inning bridge guy destroyed the Sox (Albers Putnam Petricka), and did the same to the Royals (Hochevar injured, Soria ineffective). How they fix Shields is beyond anyone at this point...and how long they can go with him sinking the ship early before they turn to Fulmer, if he hasn't already been traded. Blackmon and Inciarte are 3-4 war players, so it's going to cost more than we can afford in prospects. Cespedes will either stay or get a cost prohibitive 3-4 year deal. Tilson will be the name we hear far too often. It's unfortunate, because both he and Avi will still be in the conversation and that will be depressing to suffer through all offseason. We'll also hear how acquiring Gordon and Upton wouldn't have gotten the team near the playoffs either. So best to do nothing and hope for the best, right?

There have been VERY FEW pitchers who moved the needle significantly in terms of home attendance. The ones that come to mind in recent years (last decade or so) are Greinke in KC, Halladay in Toronto (even when they weren't good overall), King Felix in Seattle and maybe Kershaw in LA, although to a lesser extent. I think if you tracked all of his Monday - Thursday home starts from 2011-2016, you might find a blip up of something like 300-500 for Sale starts, but it's not significant. Rookie pitchers like Dwight Gooden, Mark the Bird Fidrych, Fernando, Dice-K or Darvish, the Mets' phenoms...those situations are few and far between.

Reverse the 2006 season and have them not collapsing but playing like they did at the beginning of the season. The Tigers and Twins just obliterated them and all fantasies of a dynasty were gone.

Well, you never know, if Salazar isn't the same pitcher he was the first 3-4 months this year (has had a big workload increase), anything's possible. But the Royals and Tigers will be hungry at the start of the season, particularly if the Tigers miss out on the post-season (they're already blowing 2 games in the standings this week) and then the Royals have their final chance with their core all together...and Minnesota's offense has really been impressive the last 6-8 weeks. It's seemingly pretty wide open. Of course, the off season will change things significantly.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Sep 13, 2016 -> 10:16 AM) I'll take it. I wish more places and people would do the right thing even if for the wrong reasons. Make "doing the right thing" seem normal, not out of place, and we wouldn't have to deal with bigoted crap like this in the first place. See all the multiple options Lincoln looked at first for dealing with the slavery issue, including sending slaves back to Africa...

QUOTE (Rowand44 @ Sep 13, 2016 -> 11:46 AM) Who is punishing him for that? People are just saying they should be on the same playing field, not giving Porcello the benefit of the doubt cause his team is better. For all we know Sale and Q would have better numbers this year if they were in the race and they shouldn't be punished because their team f***in blows. This will never happen while so many 50+ year old BBWAA members are still voting. Even if you had players or managers voting, they wouldn't go off WAR, only the agents.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Sep 13, 2016 -> 05:05 PM) You're using a stat that isn't park adjusted. His wRC+ has gone from 103 to 95 to 91 over the past three years, while his K rate has gone from 17.4% to 23.9% to 28.4% during this same time period. His BB rate is up a little bit this year, but that appears to be the result of a flukey April & May and it was dropping significantly before he got injured. The power numbers haven't really fluctuated much either. Like I said, I think an argument can be made he's regressing and base case scenario you can say he is what he is. And I'm not sure how using a 40 game range of missed playing time demonstrates consistency, but you do bring up another mark against him which is that he's frequently hurt. We're lucky we have a quality backup in Saladino, because if we did not, the overall production at the position could be drained by being forced to play replacement level players there more than you'd ideally like. Outside of slightly above average power for a 2B, I'm not sure what the big draw is to be honest. There is a reason Beane paid a hefty price for him and promptly gave him away. The dude is a physical freak, but a pretty mediocre baseball player. With only one year left of control and a better option already on the roster, I don't see the reason to keep him another year. He does play with a lot of energy, swagger and flair...Hawk overrated it early, but it's not a negligible factor, either.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Sep 13, 2016 -> 03:53 PM) This is pretty straight forward. There will be a fall off in attendance after a Sale trade. Even if by some miracle, the Sox return pays some sort of instant dividends, recent history dictates that Sox fans probably wouldn't jump on to the bandwagon with any sort of speed. Maybe if they won in '17 and kept winning in 18, attendance would go up then, but then again, probably not. Even in a season like 2008, where they won a division, attendance fell off over the previous year. Even in a season like 2012, where they were in first place until the last two weeks, attendance fell. Add in the factor that a good portion of the bandwagon section of the fanbase will be angry because they traded their best player. This is obvious. 2007 pretty much destroyed the momentum of the 3 million attendance post World Series in 2006. 2011 was historically disappointing with Dunn. Naturally expectations and season ticket buyers were way down the following years. If the White Sox finished 06, 07 or 11 in a competitive fashion, things would have looked quite different. Attendance is up this year despite a crap offseason and more disappointment because of those extra tockets they sold due to the 23-10 start. If you were one of those fans who bought back in again or even purchased MLB tv, how would you be feeling about right now? Your reward for doing that was watching Sox fifth starters (especially Shields) look historically inept.

Just hope Votto doesn't start 2017 like he did 2016 or all the talk will be about a sell off again...with Frazier, Cabrera and Robertson if he's still around. Why retooling isn't so easy... Alex Gordon $12 million Joakim Soria $7 million Chris Young $4.25 million That gets you a 0.0 WAR for $23.25 million and still on the hook for $85.25 million. Jason Vargas $8.5 Kris Medlen $5.5 million Mike Minor $2 million That actually puts you into negative WAR for another $16 million this year, on the hook for another $14.25 million next. The point here is that you have a small market team with 1/3rd of their payroll producing negative WAR, basically all the players they added with this year's free agent class and the leftovers from past seasons' dumpster diving. So you have a combination of maybe the worst moves of ANY team in free agency...and yet they're still likely to finish above .500 and ahead of the White Sox. They were actually just two games back in the wild card hunt two weeks ago, before Joakim Soria turned into Matt Albers. And keeping in mind again they lost Moustakas, Gordon, Cain, Davis and Perez for significant stretches of the season. Are the odds favoring even more injuries and another set of atrocious free agent moves again this season?

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Sep 13, 2016 -> 10:13 AM) ??? The last 3-4 years on that deal. Let's just put it this way, the Rockies weren't going to trade their franchise player in CarGo for less than Fulmer, the Reds are going to want even more, especially as they've already dealt Frazier to the Sox and the hit to fans' morale with Votto leaving would be substantially higher. If you're a Reds' fan, you expect a future ace and more for the best homegrown player in a generation. What second player offered in a deal would be enticing enough, especially if we were expecting ANY money coming back? It's not like we can trade trade Collins, too. That would almost defeat the purpose of adding Votto because you have to get some more young impact hitters to replace Frazier and Cabrera coming up.

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Sep 13, 2016 -> 09:58 AM) Who should win? Player A: 193.2 IP, 3.21 ERA, 3.46 FIP, 4.3 fWAR Player B: 197.2 IP, 3.05 ERA, 3.14 FIP, 5 fWAR Player C: 201.2 IP, 3.03 ERA, 3.43 FIP, 4.8 fWAR Player D: 186.2 IP, 3.04 ERA, 3.23 FIP, 5 fWAR Player E: 184 IP, 3.13 ERA, 3.41 FIP, 4.6 fWAR Going back to Andre Dawson in 1987 there's always been that debate that the Cy and MVP have to come from playoff contending teams unless the statistical dominance over the field is completely overwhelming voters have no choice. Sale winning over a Red Sox pitcher or even Verlander would be pretty shocking. The only thing more shocking would be Q.

God help the White Sox when the Pujols years of that contract come due...the hard thing is still leaving major holes in CF, catcher, back end of the rotation and bullpen. Couldn't have any injuries to key players in 2017.

Sponsors pulling money, boycotts threatened, etc.

It was also uncertainty of whether he could hold up defensively along with the surgery issue. And he looked Carlos Sanchez bad for much of last season offensively. The White Sox must have felt the same thing, because they gave regular at bats to Alexei down the stretch even knowing he was likely to be gone in the offseason.

QUOTE (TheTruth05 @ Sep 13, 2016 -> 06:08 AM) He's going to be 33 next year with $192 mil owed until 2024, I don't see many teams wanting to trade for that unless it's the Yankees (rebuild of sorts), Boston (set with the young bats) Cubs (Rizzo is there and almost as good). The Dodgers might be the only competitor given Gonzalez is getting up there in age as well. I could see the Sox be savvy and include a 3rd team maybe. Although if they will go all in they're gonna have to trade from the little they do have. A contract of nealy three times the largest in club history for a 32-33 year old is just not going to happen...forgetting about the talent going from the Sox side being satisfactory or not.

QUOTE (TheTruth05 @ Sep 13, 2016 -> 05:59 AM) Don't burn me at the stake here but if the Sox decide to go for it one more time how many people would be for going all in and trading for Votto? He has a mean slash line since the All Star break and plays a really good 1B, would supplant Abreu there and give u a middle of the order LH Bat. That coupled with a Tilson/Gomez wouldn't be bad. Eaton RF Anderson SS Abreu DH Votto 1B Melky LF Frazier 3B Gomez CF Avila/Narvaez C Saladino 2B That coupled with a 5th starter signing/acquisition really gives us a solid squad IMO. It would take a lot more than Fulmer to pry Votto loose...don't see an attractive enough package coming from the Sox side of things. 3 months ago, sure, but Votto's value has been restored fully again.

Axelrod poured some fuel onto the fire as well....

Carlos Sanchez would probably be given the job over Leury, but neither replacement would be ideal. The thing with Saladino is that they really need to send him to winter ball to play the outfield and see if he can become a Zobrist/Desmond/Whit Merrifield type who can play multiple infield positions and at least two outfield positions, if not all 3. That type of strategy has worked exceedingly well over the years in Tampa, with Maddon doing the same with Zobrist, Keppinger, Sean Rodriguez, Forsythe, etc. Josh Harrison, Martin Prado and Aviles are other examples that come to mind.

Kubo and the Two Strings is defintely Top Five movie of the year and hopefully gets Best Picture nom and can break out of simply the Best animated box...Beauty and the Beast was one of the last to pull that one off.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Sep 12, 2016 -> 07:18 AM) Dye was studly that year. Also had above average hitting at a number of spots. Also team hit a ton of homers. No stiffs in the outfield trying to play D. Super starting and relief pitching. We had a lot of career pitching years come together. Pods wasn't much of a defender in 2005...because of his arm, he probably graded out slightly below average but he at least had the speed to make up for some mistakes. Much better his second time around with the Sox.

QUOTE (Coach @ Sep 12, 2016 -> 07:42 AM) Ok, you got me on that one. Forgot about him. Haha...and LaRoche/Dunn weren't trades. But the point about DH's named Adam frm the NL still remains.

QUOTE (Coach @ Sep 12, 2016 -> 06:32 AM) As much as I really dislike Ventura, hiring just another manager would not really have a quality impact of the Sox current situation. What the Sox really need to do is rebuild from within. Starting with their farm system. It seems their scouts and coaches seem to have a tough time evaluating talent. Occasionally you get a Tim Anderson but I have been questioning for a few years now about the scouts. Also, note to front office, stop trading for aging veterans who have already past their peak. And really stop signing players named Adam. Adam Eaton says hello.

QUOTE (DrunkBomber @ Sep 11, 2016 -> 11:15 PM) Between stuff like this and Bill Clinton telling people at a rally that Make America Great Again is a racist term even though there are videos of him using it in three different campaigns, she is some how managing to Out-Trump, Trump. Slightly different context. Do all the Trump voters really want to have the price of their iphones and nearly every good at Wal-Mart increase by 45%? Because doing that will apparently bring back all those lost blue collar jobs that used to pay decent, liveable wages.

http://www.csnmidatlantic.com/washington-n...&yptr=yahoo Latos starting for the Nats this week...