caulfield12

Kobach lost in Kansas...a decent-sized surprise.

If you add Dunning/Hansen/Robert and of course Kopech, that's a pretty substantial hit. Other than Jimenez, there's no "surefire" impact position player. Robert and Madrigal have tons of POTENTIAL, but...

Seems like they're heading for 223-227 in the House (218 for majority). Most optimistically, they were initially looking at 235-240. Trump will be able to tout his Senate holds, even though more and more of the governorship's and state legislatures are trending in the Dem column. With Donnelly losing to Braun, all Senate hopes are already extinguished before they even got started. And, if Nelson and Gillum both lose in FL, that's a HUGE break for Trump's 2020 chances. He absolutely has to win FL/OH...because WI/PA/MI/IA are going to be much harder gets the second time around. Another fascinating subplot....Kansas, Maine, South Dakota are all trending Dem (so far) for governor, any of those three going that direction would be pretty darned surprising. Wisconsin and Ohio continue to be the two races (after FL and GA) that everyone's closely monitoring.

VA 2 and 7 are the next dominoes to fall. Otoh, the GOP has kept Barr's seat and another key VA race, so it's not going to be a blue wave. Net is +2 so far. Things looking pretty grim for Donnelly and Abrams, Nelson and Gillum could go either way in FLA. Also a bit surprised by the margins in the TN Senate race, Bredesen was expected to be within at least 5%. An O'Rourke win in Texas (still highly unlikely) and he becomes the temporary favorite for the Dems in 2020.

KW is lurking with the Adam Jones/Nelson Cruz moves...it's 2007-2011 all over again, haha.

Trading Abreu (unless it's simply offsetting salaries) for a so-so prospect in return doesn't make much sense, especially with the talk for 2-3 years now about he was the most respected guy in the clubhouse, leader/role model for Latin American prospects, etc. Cruz is simply going to be a "filler" for a couple of years...and wouldn't be in the long-term competitive window, unless that window is being pushed up to 2019/20 all of a sudden. Abreu at 1B, Cruz at DH and Palka/Garcia platoon in RF (or Harper, obviously, which allows them to cut Garcia and save some money) is the best line-up they can possibly put out there. Palka could also DH occasionally against tough RHP that Cruz (or any pitchers that Cruz historically struggles against.)

Also, does anyone want to venture a guess that the Georgia and/or Florida governor's races aren't resolved tonight? Florida with Gillum leading slightly (1.8%) with 35.4% in. Roughly 40% of the electorate (national) is describing themselves as independent.

Really strange results so far...nobody expected Wexton (D) to be up 17% on Comstock in VA, but Donnelly being down almost 16% against Braun (even if it's only 25% reporting) in Indiana is a bit of a shocker as well. By the end of the evening, a 53-47 split in the Senate wouldn't be much of a shock. Winning ND is long gone. TN, Texas seem like long shots at best. Missouri could go either way, just like NV and AZ.

He only threw 97~98 for a few starts and that Futures Game....look at average velocities from 2~3 years ago, you will see him closer to 94. 95, touching 96.

Also, RF at Guaranteed Rate is not that challenging to play...not nearly the size of other outfields, and we should (at least) have a legit CF defensively to help compensate for weaknesses on both corners.

How many season tickets would Manny Machado sell? 1000? 2000? Harper immediately gets a lot of local corporations to consider buying back in...that “cool” or “it” factor, Q ratings, whatever you want to call it. In the end, it’s about winning...but the marketing side here (right now) has to be 50% of it, and leveraging Harper’s presence to elevate the tv dollars. They’re simply not going to bump up the tv rights deal $20-30 million per year for Machado. They can point to the Orioles over the last 2-3 years as reasons why that doesn’t make sense. Harper’s presence alone gives you the ability to add a Keuchel or Pollock for “free” essentially. I would venture there are more kids out there who have grown up wanting to play with Bryce Harper since they picked up a bat and ball.

Unfortunately, for every true believer...there are going to be "10 Doubting Thomas'es." We've finished in 2nd or 3rd place for way too many players for that not to be the case, until proven otherwise.

That 3 year opt out would make a ton of sense for the Cubs, actually. They're going to have to do a complete rebuild/tear-down at exactly that point.

Maybe. Adam Dunn in 2011 (debacle though it proved to be) was one of the big names that off-season. It is pretty sad that's our "biggest" move in over 20 years (you could put Luis Robert and Abreu up there as well.) Unless, of course, we go by a $100+ million contract doled out, in which case we're nowhere close to the original impact of the Belle signing over 20 years ago (which was also done out of spite over the labor negotiations, and to make a point to fellow owners.)

The Hate U Give is one of the 5 best films of the year so far. Should be required viewing for all middle and high school students.

Corbin presumably...Keuchel and Kimbrel. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/11/mlb-free-agent-predictions-2019.html Once you get past the Top 10, there’s a severe drop off in quality. Also has Josh Donaldson signing a $20 million one year deal, Harper at $420 million to the Dodgers and Machado at $390 million to the Phillies. Only three deals for over $100, though, with Corbin at $129 million to the Yankees. If the Twins are going to spend $100 million plus, it will be the shocker of the offseason.

As long as they have that pitching and two stars they’re going to be tough to knock off. Their bullpen is a huge question mark now. Who in their right mind is going to overpay for Encarnacion? There might be a market for Gomes, but they already dealt their best catching prospect last year in Mejia. It will take auctioning off Kluber for me to believe they’re actually serious about rebuilding...because you’re going to get deals like the ones for Sale, Eaton and Q that more often that not go bust with young prospects involved.

Isn’t Medeiros going to get a shot at starting as well?

If we’re going for bad character stretches, might as well sign Kang for one year at third... Would sign Joe Kelly (closer or 5th starter) and Ottavino. Brantley or Pollock for 3 years. Kick the tires on Moustakas or Josh Harrison on one year deals (assuming Kang wouldn’t be considered.) Then one veteran starter added. That gives them an outside shot if everything goes right and the Indians suffer some major injuries to their rotation and/or Lindor or Jose Ramirez. Fwiw, the Cubs aren’t going to give up Happ and Russell along with Heyward, if anything, they’re better off moving Schwarber, but no way both young players go together. Besides, that would force Almora Jr., into everyday play without it being warranted. And the Cubs must have magic dust if they can assume Zobrist can repeat 2018 at his age. The only way that huge package comes back is with Rodon going the other way. But then the return’s a bit light for the Sox. Sox counter with Jones/Rodon + taking on remainder of the Heyward deal to get Russell and Happ...they’d actually be better off with Darvish’s deal, with Steverson unlikely to do much with a veteran hitting project.

Current playbook. Solidify Senate hold (will likely be 52/48) and use that and Supreme Court as buffer/protection against the Dems. Blame the likes of Disappearing Paul Ryan for not fighting hard enough on the immigration wedge issue and instead focusing on “real/local” problems like health care, jobs, infrastructure, education, environment, etc. Blame women for voting against him when “all he wants to do is give them a sense of security and protection.” (Dusts off cover of The Birth of a Nation CD and The Camp of the Saints book.) Pretend like you’re going to make a deal with China to bring the stock market (temporarily) back up. Say anything and everything about pre-existing conditions, birthright citizenship, firing on unarmed refugees/children and mothers, middle class tax cuts, Jewish financial cabals/conspiracies...to confuse uninformed voters.

We still don’t have enough pitching with Dunning/Hansen and Cease one major injury away from a bullpen career. We haven’t dipped into the Asian market or improved at all in the Dominican (looks at Paddy). Tatis, Jr. fiasco. Either terrible luck with Rodon/Fulmer/Adams/Beck/Burdi or just not as good as other organizations at pitching talent assessment. Jury still out. Huge questions about the first two guys in Sentence #1. Didn’t bring in a huge haul along with Robert, like MANY teams have done in their one year overshoots. Players that we haven’t seen much out of like Junior Guerra, Jose Martinez and Tyler Flowers have gone on to perform well with other teams (albeit that happens with every franchise). That said, even if you undid the Frazier and Samardzija trades, we’d still basically be in the same middling position talent-wise. Not much success in Rule 5. Jury still out on Covey, but mostly Adrian Nietos here. Collection of relievers has potential, but guys also have a lot to prove...repeating success, or simply establishing themselves. While Rutherford, Adolfo, Gonzalez, Robert and Basabe all have their plus points, none of them are without flaws...in other words, you have to squint really hard to see a 3+ fWAR big leaguer right now. Burger, Sheets, Collins, Walker, Robert and Madrigal all have major warning signs on their hit tools so far. (Obviously, it’s still early to make any determinations, but this year will be huge in determining if this will all work out or blow up in their faces.) Abreu and Avi slid backwards, along with Davidson/Delmonico/Yolmer. Kopech/Giolito/Moncada fell off cliffs of varying expectation heights. Leaving the majority of hopes resting on Jimenez/Cease to be breakout stars... All those things being said, the bigger question is pulling the trigger on the right free agents, and that has been the single biggest weakness in Hahn’s resume. Sure, sure, sure...he’s never had unlimited resources to work with, but does he really have that right now?

One thing's not debatable, Machado signing would take all the pressure off of Moncada, Jimenez and even Kopech/Cease. That said, there's also the fear he's a negative influence on a young team (with oodles of Latin American talent) and/or he has a repeat of his 2017 season. That almost ensures they have to bring in an established brand manager like Girardi/Scioscia or, more likely, Vizquel. No way Renteria's the type of personality that can bend Machado (at all) to his will, or at least get him to compromise.

Look at the Brewers. They went out and got Cain and Yelich, and didn't care if it would block Domingo Santana and Thames, who both had very solid offensive seasons in 2017 but were defensively-challenged/limited. Basically, it amounts to this. Every year we'll have a Delmonico/Narvaez/Yolmer/Palka on the plus breakout side, but is anyone really counting on them being consistently capable of performing at high levels? That's the $20,000 question.

https://eand.co/does-america-have-a-future-da09ba31d050 Jack might be the only one with the patience to read this...but it's a compelling argument that the Millennials are the only group who can "save" America at this point, and the rationale makes a lot of sense, certainly when you think of it in terms of what's currently going on politically with the politics of division/identity dominating over policy ideas for improving the country. It's all about protecting the old guard vs. what's next? Of course, the Dems haven't done a great job articulating what they want to do exactly that will really make a significant impact, partly due to the fact that "big projects" don't seem to fit with a $21.5 trillion debt (and growing). https://medium.com/s/free-money 8 arguments (for and against) establishing Universal Basic Income in the future as AI/machine learning/robotics replaces more and more "human" occupations.

The last time we really had 6 legit starters was going into 2006 with Javy and McCarthy. I'm with most here in that we need at least ONE if not TWO additions to the rotation for depth. All you have to do is look at what the Dodgers went through in the last couple of years to see why. We're one injury away from another year of Dylan Covey at this point. The odds of Giolito, Rodon and Cease staying healthy for the entire season isn't exactly high probability stuff. Lynn and Pomeranz are good candidates, didn't Lynn pitch much better the second half of the season after he got his legs underneath him due to the late "spring training" for him? Gio would be fine, although he's probably going to get 2+ years instead of taking a one year deal. We might want to kick the tires on Erwin Santana. Morton for one year, as a flip candidate. There are tons of possibilities, but it would be pretty negligent to go into the season without at least one "decent" quality addition below Corbin's tier.