caulfield12

The frustration level is MUCH higher this year, because of: 23-10 start, then complete collapse James Shields apparent disconnect between KW and JR, no moves around trade deadline Chris Sale fiasco Guaranteed Rate fiasco LaRoche fiasco It's all getting to be just TOO MUCH. Even the biggest defenders of the front office and/or Ventura are realizing SOMETHING has to change, if only for change's sake. They've turned over almost an entire roster and half of another and are still making the same types of mistakes that you saw in 2013 or 2014. They've changed hitting coaches, but the talent is just insufficient to have anything more than a bottom quartile offense for a team that plays 81 homes games in a hitter's park.

One wonders if they'll just make the argument that Tilson deserves the shot to start in CF and not add someone like a Carlos Gomez or Colby Rasmus for that position. Tilson seems more likely, unless that hamstring tear was so serious his viability as a defender is uncertain heading into next year. The likes of Fowler or Desmond are going to be beyond their budget will all the additional bidders in the market, and/or there won't be a mutual interest. I also wouldn't count on Petricka or Putnam, but that doesn't mean both won't be cited as reasons for not making any moves in the bullpen over the offseason, along with the presence of Burdi (who may or may not be converted to starting). No matter what you do, there's a logical argument against it here...bringing Avila back and praying for sound health for an entire season just doesn't seem like a very sound strategy, but it's certainly the most economical one, and they should be familiar enough now with his various health issues to draw a reasonable conclusion in terms of what direction to move forward in. Narvaez will likely be the back-up heading into ST, he's earned that much at least.

The only real argument for "going for it" in 2017 is the additional presence of Tim Anderson (and hoping for no sophomore slump). Of course, in the 2nd half of 2015 it seemed as if Rodon had taken the next step too, and they didn't do much of anything to shore up the back end of the rotation. Everyone for months knew that Erik Johnson was likely to struggle and that the organization appeared to have soured on him. You had the usual concerns about Danks that have been there for the past 3 years or so. Turner was at best, a reclamation project. In the end, they were fortunate to come up with Gonzalez, but that was almost luck and the bottom line is they were resting on their laurels OR simply not willing to commit to spending more on the rotation coming into the season. If you want to lump Burdi and Fulmer in there with Anderson...and Collins in late 2017, you could take that approach...or you could also say there's no reason to rush Burdi and Collins and you need to see if they can develop as a starting pitcher (instead of reliever) and starting catcher (instead of DH), respectively.

QUOTE (JUSTgottaBELIEVE @ Sep 7, 2016 -> 06:53 PM) I think they intended to compete but sure didn't spend like it last offseason. I honestly believe even Hahn knew that the signings were destined for failure but he was likely given a hard cap on what he could spend. Do you think Hahn would have settled for guys like Latos, Rollins and Jackson if he was given a larger budget? That's why I have been saying that if they want to compete next year JR has to be willing to increase the payroll. They won't be able to compete otherwise. If that's true, then he wouldn't have cut Danks, Latos and Rollins, brought up Anderson and added Shields. Of course, in the end, you can't cover catching injuries, CF and bullpen replacements very easily in the middle of a season when you have a barren minor league system. Meanwhile, lots of teams like the Cardinals, Indians, Rangers or Royals just muddle through any injuries because they have depth and talent at almost every position waiting for an opportunity.

QUOTE (bmags @ Sep 7, 2016 -> 03:29 PM) Don't tell the white sox. As evidenced by our spending what, about $3 million, on Avi and Morneau? DH has been a problem for the White Sox ever since 2011 (I'll give Dunn most of 2012 to his credit, but it certainly wasn't like we were getting cheap production there) and it's likely to continue to be an issue into 2017. The odds of them overpaying for an Encarnacion type are just about nil. Of course, that leaves you with someone like Jose Bautista 2-3 years too late when his career completely craters, a Morneau, a Moreland, a Kendrys Morales who might have one more solid season left or might not, as you never know with players past 30 anymore (won't get into the David Ortiz at age 40 discussion/anomaly).

Logic dictates trading Sale and Eaton. Sale will bring back a higher return, and we have Q for one more year and he seems to have the better likelihood of being healthy in 2019-2020. That said, you never know. Eaton, because he's at peak value, probably can't get any better than this, and is an elevated injury risk. Trading Abreu won't get you a bigger return because he's limited more to AL teams who would prefer to DH him...and he doesn't look like a tremendous bargain when you consider his arbitration status/escalating salary. Finally, it's a lot harder to sign or trade for a true impact bat than it is find a combination of good hitter and fielder (of course, not easy either). With Heyward and Gordon showing the danger of overpaying for defense, though, it feels right to trade the guy who been Top 10-12 in war nearly all season long. And you have to really hit one of those two deals on the head...you can't miss on both.

Rebuilding would mean Fulmer in the rotation....so Shields would be relegated to the pen or released ar the end of May. Gonzalez would be dealt in June/July, as a cheap rental piece. Of course, we had the same idea about Humber, and he went south too quickly. And, that said, unless he's pitching like 2003 Loiaza, the return won't be overwhelming. Ranaudo also starting wouldn't be rebuilding because he's not a factor for the future and has negligible trade value. Burdi would be a starter at Winston-Salem.

Three teams in AL East and Yankees will definitely be better. Three teams in the Central we can't beat. Rangers, Astros and Mariners. We would still be 9th-11th in the AL, at best. Ahead of Tampa, Oakland, LAA and hopefully the Twins.

QUOTE (JUSTgottaBELIEVE @ Sep 7, 2016 -> 07:29 AM) Wieters replaces the Avila/Navarro combo. $10MM vs $6.5MM or $3.5MM increase. Fowler is not getting $15MM AAV. I could see $10-12MM AAV over 3 or 4 years. Let's say $12MM vs $5MM they paid AJ this year or $7MM increase. Even if Volquez gets $7MM his salary combined with Shields and Fulmer amounts to $18MM or $2MM less than what they paid Shields and Danks this year. Moreland isn't getting $8MM AAV unless maybe it's only a one year deal. Even then, consider Pedro Alvarez as a decent comp from last season and he got 1/$5.75MM last offseason. I think Moreland gets $6MM AAV over 3 years vs ~$1MM they spent for DH this year. Add it all up and that's an approx. $13.5MM increase. I realize other players are due a raise because of arbitration, etc. but still that only bumps total payroll up $15-20MM from this season, no where near $40MM. I would expect some of those increases to be offset by losing guys like Turner, Latos and Avi and not buying out guys like Albers. http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/chicago-white-sox/yearly/payroll/ This is where the problems start....just with built in salary escalators, not even considering arbitration, they're up another $10 million. If you didn't have Robertson and Shields on the roster, it might have been possible...at least theoretically. That's not accounting for the likes of Miguel Gonzalez and Lawrie, either.

It's almost unbelieveable...until we actually hear it from KW and JR as well.

With that kind of bravado, you should send your CV to The Trump Organization...maybe four campaign managers before the 1st of October.

QUOTE (SCCWS @ Sep 7, 2016 -> 06:27 AM) Actually doesn't Shields add as well. They only paid a partial on him this year but get the full load next year. $10 million in 2017, $10 million in 2018, $2 million buyout pre 2019....

QUOTE (JUSTgottaBELIEVE @ Sep 7, 2016 -> 06:11 AM) How do you figure that adds $40MM to payroll? Boras is going to get $10 million for Wieters from SOMEONE. $15 million for Fowler for one year. $7 million for Volquez. $8 million for Moreland.

QUOTE (JUSTgottaBELIEVE @ Sep 7, 2016 -> 05:39 AM) 1. Wieters will end this season with more than 400 PA and had nearly 300 last season. Every player comes with an injury risk but he appears to be past his Tommy John at this point. 2. In the past 6 seasons Fowler's lowest WAR has been 1.5 in his one season with the Astros. Even if he does what he did with the Astros that's still a big upgrade from Jackson/Schuck. 3. I still think the Royals cut Volquez lose but even if they don't it shouldn't be that hard to find someone to fill the #5 SP role (Fulmer?). Even an ERA in the 4.75-5.25 range as you suggest is a massive upgrade from what this team has gotten this season from that spot. The combined ERA of Danks/Shields/Ranaudo is just below 8! 4. Moreland is a career 765 OPS. Even if he dips to 725-750 that's still an upgrade over the combined numbers put up this season by Avi/Sands/Morneau. Also, I have him slotted in the 6 hole behind Fowler, Eaton, Abreu, Frazier, and Melky. He typically bats 6 or 7 for the AL best Texas Rangers. Where are they going to get the money to add roughly $40 million in payroll for next year?

QUOTE (JUSTgottaBELIEVE @ Sep 6, 2016 -> 05:00 PM) So you think replacing Navarro/Avila with Wieters, Schuck with Fowler, Shields/Danks/Ranuado with Volquez, Avi/Morneau with Moreland, and Albers/Kahnle/Ynoa with Burdi/Putnam/Petricka will have little to no impact on the number of wins next season? That's an interesting thought. I happen to think that those additions could result in as many as 10 additional wins and a total in the upper 80s, which absolutely positions them to be a playoff contender. Sure I will admit that a lot has to go right but if it doesn't then tear it down in July and sell off anything of value not in the mid-long term plan. I feel it's a very prudent approach. You're really betting a LOT on Wieters' quite questionable health history. And you're only going to get him to Chicago on a one-year deal, with the contracts of Melky and Frazier expiring next year, they're not going to commit to anything beyond 2017 in terms of veteran acquisitions, IMO. Fowler had an opportunity to play for the White Sox and Orioles last year, and chose the Cubs...he would be a nice get, but you can't just assume the same first half he had in 2016. He's actually tailed off quite a bit the second half of the season, and he's been far from a "sure thing" statistically (career-wise) until he doffed a Cubs' jersey. Next, there's at least a 50/50 chance Volquez ends up staying with the Royals, they control his rights for 2017 until they buy him out. Until he joined the Pirates/Royals, he was one of those talented enigmas like Puig that nobody knew what to do with and everyone was afraid of signing and also just as equally afraid of not signing him because of "potential/ability/upside." He does have a lot of wear and tear on his arm...it wouldn't be a shocker at all to see him as a 4.75-5.25 ERA pitcher with the White Sox (and yes, KC has been playing as the third best stadium offensively, duly noted). The main question would be whether he could give you enough innings to protect that bullpen. (Basically,the same exact role another former Royal was supposed to fill). Moreland's going to make more money than Morneau because of his relative youth (31), but anything is possible there offensively...he's just as likely to put up a 725-750 OPS as an 850. Just wonder the effect when you strip away some of the protection he gets in that Texas line-up. He would be expected to be the 4th or 5th best hitter for the White Sox, not a bottom of the order guy you just throw in there at the 7 spot. It's also far from clear whether Burdi will be in the big league bullpen (with Robertson traded) or starting in Winston-Salem or Birmingham instead.

They have to be competitive in 2019 or very clearly heading for it in 2020...the only salvation for this franchise is having an influx of another $50 million per year to spending with that broadcast rights deal.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-th...r-they-drafted/ Differential between record today and where they COULD have been if team was kept 100% intact... -7.5 White Sox and Marlins (Miami front office executives never have a secure existence, see Jennings last year) -9.5 NY Mets (WS team last year, obviously struggling with pitching injuries but still hanging in there) -10 Seattle (have already changed GM's, barely hanging on in WC race but fair to say fans must be disappointed) Colorado (never have officially announced a rebuild, but that's essentially where they are) -11.5 Milwaukee Brewers (clearly rebuilding) -13 Philadelphia Phillies (rebuilding, GM change in last year) -16.5 MN Twins and SD Padres (both teams were expected to compete in 2015 and 2016 respectively, Twins changed their GM, Padres changed GM two years ago and finally committed to rebuild coming into this year with Preller) -17 AZ Diamondbacks (pretty clear Stewart/LaRussa are on the hottest of seats, literally and figuratively) -18 LA Angels (pretty clear that changing the GM wasn't enough to turn things around, huge disaster/enigma) -19.5 Cincinnati Reds (rebuilding) -25.5 Atlanta Braves (rebuilding) Out of those seven teams who had aspirations of competing, the Marlins/Mariners/Twins/Angels have all changed front office execs/GM and/or managers. The White Sox situation currently is probably best described as a combination of Seattle, Colorado, SD and the LA Angels. FWIW, everyone knows what has happened with the Mets and all their assorted injuries. It's also quite obvious that AZ is THE front office with the most to answer for right now with their ownership group. The Angels' current predicament wouldn't be far behind... Teams/GM's that have outperformed (three are in the AL East) Toronto Blue Jays +15 (interestingly, you had the front office change with Anthopolous departing) Baltimore Orioles +12 Washington Nationals +6 NY Yankees +5 Teams who have been most successful at drafting/developing... Boston Red Sox +25 Chicago Cubs +22 Texas Rangers +18 Seattle Mariners +15 (see above) LA Angels +13 (see above) Cleveland Indians +8 NY Mets +5 (see above)

QUOTE (JUSTgottaBELIEVE @ Sep 6, 2016 -> 03:40 PM) What's your definition of "anyone of any impact"? Matt Latos made a huge impact for four starts...

QUOTE (elrockinMT @ Sep 6, 2016 -> 03:29 PM) I fully expected to see Fulmer but maybe he and Burdi will be competing in 2017 for the AL Rookie Pitcher of the Year? I guess we will see lots of Gonzalez and Ranaudo the rest of the way and since I just saw Hayes'tweet I reckon Mr Shields keeps on a hurlin Called this a couple of days ago...the last thing they want is for Fulmer and Burdi to be rocked in the big leagues the final month, because that's going to be a huge element of their offseason marketing. 1) Fulmer and Burdi are going to be looked at as making two free agent signings 2) Putnam and Petricka will surely fix the pen, unpopular Albers sacrificed 3) Maybe Morneau stays and they have that feel good story 4) James Shields has rededicated himself in the offseason to a conditioning program to strengthen his back 5) New manager will totally change the culture of the team and lift the spirit of the fans 6) Someone will have to replace the equally unpopular Avi...

Carlos Quentin Jose Quintana Sergio Santos Addison Reed Adam Eaton Chris Carter Bobby Jenks Alejandro DeAza John Danks Gavin Floyd Alexei Ramirez Jose Abreu Could add success with Humber for one year Hector Santiago The White Sox have been pretty successful in the past scouting players with no or less than one full year of big league experience. To that, you can add Sale and Anderson, too. Whoever was responsible for the success of all those decisions should get promoted...everyone else has until July, 2017 to get their act in gear.

With no draft pick attached, Hill will be well out of their price range/comfort level...

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Sep 6, 2016 -> 06:28 AM) As opposed to the risk of adding players that bust, which is MUCH higher historically. For this front office....historically accurate post 2008 (and you could throw Swisher in starting that year).

Unless you wanted to place more pressure on Fulmer and Gonzalez to a lesser extent, not much at all...

$22 million with the buyout.

It would be pretty difficult to go through the free agent (or cheaply available) list RIGHT NOW and put together a winning team. Maybe if you picked Fowler/Desmond and traded for Segura and Trumbo (this past off-season), you'd arguably be close to first place.. But no GM has the ability to peer into a crystal ball and divine the future. Essentially, it would take like three moves working out perfectly out of four, and you'd still have some issues in the rotation and bullpen to address, but that offense would have made up for a lot of mistakes. But when you're hitting on less than 1/3rd of your free agency moves, it's a recipe for disaster. Finally, someone said Melky Cabrera isn't at peak value right now (that he could still be better in 2017)...I would respectfully disagree with that one. https://www.yahoo.com/news/m/1c57a34e-54d6-...ked-before.html Rebuilding Has Worked Before for the Sox...Paul Sullivan article