-
Posts
100,598 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
35
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Everything posted by caulfield12
-
It is better. It might even be better for the White Sox, although that's less obvious. If you had not signed Zobrist to a five year deal, one would have missed out on 5.0 fWAR in his age 32 season, 5.5 in his age 33 campaign and 2.1 in his age 34 season. Yes, Zobrist had an injury and played in just 126 games and his WAR took a hit defensively. His bat, however, as we are well aware remained right in line with career (.276/.359/.450). If the Royals were locked into paying Ben for his age 35 season, would you be particularly concerned about getting bang for your buck? Personally, I would be feeling pretty good about it right now.
-
The next market inefficiency...2nd/3rd tier pitching
caulfield12 replied to caulfield12's topic in Pale Hose Talk
QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Dec 31, 2015 -> 09:57 AM) By WAR, those are the five best catchers in all of baseball since 2010. When you have players who are really good at baseball, the teams are more likely to be winning. It's not just about intangibles there, it's talent. But it's also the most important position on the field. The majority of MLB managers spent at least part of their major or minor league careers at that position. -
Alex Gordon on MLB says "I'm still hoping something works out" with Royals. John Smoltz says he thinks they find a way. https://twitter.com/JACKWHB?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
-
The next market inefficiency...2nd/3rd tier pitching
caulfield12 replied to caulfield12's topic in Pale Hose Talk
QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Dec 31, 2015 -> 09:40 AM) I'll admit I get a kick out of the catcher leadership idea. Intangibles have some importance, but you're really reaching when you use them as a primary counter-point against a team's ability to compete. Go ahead and say these guys don't call good games and/or work well with their pitchers, but don't go with some high-level "leadership" bulls*** that has minimal direct impact on the game. So you think it's a complete random coincidence that guys like Molina, Posey, Martin, McCann usually play for winning teams/organizations..or that the majority of really good teams in the last 10-15 years had above-average or franchise-level catchers (Mauer, etc.)? -
The next market inefficiency...2nd/3rd tier pitching
caulfield12 replied to caulfield12's topic in Pale Hose Talk
Sigh. Clearly the Orioles were also not in the post-season in 2012, either. -
The next market inefficiency...2nd/3rd tier pitching
caulfield12 replied to caulfield12's topic in Pale Hose Talk
QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 31, 2015 -> 09:05 AM) Weren't you the guy telling us signing the middle tier free agents was a terrible plan? Do you ever keep a goalpost in the same place? Yeah, when you consistently make the wrong choices, like we have seen. Saying the only possible plan going forward is the Big 3 no longer feels realistic...so adjustments have to be made, otherwise Hahn and Sox fans will get left holding the bag and feel they've been sold a false bill of goods. At some point, contingency plans have to be acted on. -
The next market inefficiency...2nd/3rd tier pitching
caulfield12 replied to caulfield12's topic in Pale Hose Talk
QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Dec 31, 2015 -> 08:55 AM) Ya, I don't get the knock on Ventura to be honest. The FO gives Ventura the players to make up the lineup card so Ventura is just doing his best to work with what he's given. As for adding starting pitching depth, I like the idea of adding Beachy. I think Latos and Fister will be a bit costly for what the Sox are looking for. Hasn't Beachy had two TJ's already? At any rate, that's the idea....whoever, Porcello, Masterson, there has to be a pitcher out there who fits this scheme and would be an upgrade on Johnson. Only Medlen and Capuano have made it through to the other side of that double TJ...obviously, it will come down to what teams are willing to pay Fister and Latos. -
The next market inefficiency...2nd/3rd tier pitching
caulfield12 replied to caulfield12's topic in Pale Hose Talk
QUOTE (GreenSox @ Dec 31, 2015 -> 08:18 AM) I think it's a reasonable approach; I think Parra/Jackson would markedly improve this team....basically to the extent Alex Gordon would IF they platoon them properly (big if with the skills of this manager). 2 year deals would fit right with the Todd Frazier window. However, there is no way you can do this with Desmond, Chen, Gallardo or anyone with a QO. From the Sox perspective, 3 top 50 picks is a big chance to invigorate the farm. But from anyone's perspective, losing a nice draft choice for 1 year of a so-so player is not the way to go. If you are going to lose a draft choice, make it worthwhile. Here's the way to add three guys and not lose a single pick...upgrading three weaknesses instead of just one. Latos or Fister is signed to a one year deal, then you wait until June to add Fowler or Desmond (in June) depending on how Saladino and the outfield situation is going... So essentially Latos/Fister vs. Erik Johnson/Danks and you buy insurance against injury and can attach a QO if they pitch well (which they're going to be more motivated to do on a one year deal, theoretically). Then you're looking at Parra getting most of the playing time in RF. Garcia would DH against lefties, with Shuck playing RF for Parra. If you want to spend more for a higher OPS, you go Span over Parra and still keep the draft pick. And you don't have to worry about long-term ramifications for signing any of the Big 3 to five year exploding contracts. Not to mention you have even more financial flexibility created next season. -
Kazmir can opt out of his contract after next season. The free-agent class of pitchers is particularly thin next off-season, with Stephen Strasburg, Andrew Cashner and the Dodgers' Brett Anderson projected as the top available starters. Zaidi said the Dodgers were comfortable letting Kazmir walk away after one season because of that organizational depth, the possibility of getting an extra draft pick for Kazmir next off-season and the motivation that another shot at free agency might provide Kazmir next season. "In Scott's case, he and his representation are aware that next year's free-agent starting pitching market will probably be a pretty good seller's market," Zaidi said. "From our standpoint, we have a lot of good young pitching that we feel is going to be ready to contribute at some point in 2016 and certainly by 2017. No major league team used fewer than eight starting pitchers last season. The Dodgers used 16, the most in the majors, according to Baseball Reference. http://www.latimes.com/sports/dodgers/la-s...1231-story.html You can start to see an argument forming for one of Gallardo, Chen, Latos and Fister being acquired by the White Sox on a one-year deal...you add Parra/A.Jackson/Span on 1-2 or 2+ option deals...and then possibly make a run at Desmond or Fowler for 2/3rd's worth of a 2016 contract OR add at the trade deadline. Financially, it's much more risk-averse than putting all your eggs in one Big 3 basket. Argument being that Fulmer is added to the rotation in 2017 and you have Danks/Johnson as insurance this year in case a starter goes down or misses time, which happened to every team in the majors last year. But would JR approve?
-
QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 31, 2015 -> 06:39 AM) Then how did Wieters make your list? Adjust the goalposts again. I really don't understand what you chronic complainers get out of constantly complaining,. Baseball is a game. Games are supposed to be fun. Were the Orioles not in the playoffs two years ago? As for fun, that's why Iowa bb and fb is fun...lower expectations, easier to be pleasantly surprised. Somehow I kinda doubt Ventura will last as long in one job as Ferentz and Stoops, though.
-
Sources: Industry belief is that the White Sox would prefer to sign an outfielder to a 4- or 5-year deal. May lessen chances for Upton. Chris Cotillo
-
QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 31, 2015 -> 05:44 AM) Alex Avila was the starting catcher for many playoff teams. We understand the White Sox don't have 25 all stars on their roster which apparently is need to make the playoffs. Your Royals had the worst staring pitching in the league last season, and the White Sox, as bad as they were at catcher, had more WAR from that position than they did, the future HOFer Sal Perez be damned. Was being the past tense...LaRoche was a good hitter in 2014, Samardzija a good pitcher. Avila was last "good" in which year that he had 400+ at-bats? http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/team/_/stat/p...ed-2/order/true Here's a category the White Sox pitching staff overall was last in the AL, KC first. The Royals were better in whip, ERA, baa and ops. Whether it's starters or relievers that are your comparative advantage, you still need solid defense and offensive balance. And Complaining about starting pitching is irrelevant in the same way it will be in Yankees' games this season. If you have one of the top five bullpens in modern baseball history for two years running, why would you care if your starters go 6.5 vs. 5.25 innings on average?
-
What is the Sox fall back OF plan ?
caulfield12 replied to CaliSoxFanViaSWside's topic in Pale Hose Talk
QUOTE (Jerksticks @ Dec 31, 2015 -> 02:40 AM) Nicely said. And what's great is this is the White Sox too, just many on here don't see it yet. Lot of people think we're just kicking the can down the road signing veterans etc, not building from within etc. Bull freaking s***. Our rotation will basically cost under $40M for the next five years. The entire rotation. That's doing something extremely right. Adam Eaton & Abreu are studs. It's working, the farm is looking super solid. And we didn't lose on purpose for 5 years. Everybody needs to quit being mad at the Sox FO & ownership now. Just stop. We're in a super enviable position moving forward- way better than the cubs. In 2019? Sure, Heyward, Lester and Zobrist might not look so attractive three or four years from now...but that last sentence of your post is a huge stretch. It's like arguing the White Sox would be worse off signing one of the Big 3 because of what may or may not happen in the back half of those contracts. Heyward probably will opt out. Another point, Fulmer and Erik Johnson aren't guarantees, any more than Arrieta is a guarantee to win another Cy Young or blow out his elbow or shoulder. If you look at starting position players, which White Sox players would you choose over their counterparts? Abreu over Rizzo? Frazier over Bryant? Cabrera over Schwarber? Garcia over Soler? Eaton over Heyward? Tim Anderson over Russell? There's another problem with the niche being starting pitching over position players...the higher likelihood of injury/risk. And are we really going to argue the Cubs' current farm system depth is inferior to Anderson, Fulmer, Adams, et al.? -
What is the Sox fall back OF plan ?
caulfield12 replied to CaliSoxFanViaSWside's topic in Pale Hose Talk
You could at least have some nice promotional tie-ins with the Jurassic Park series with Crazy Carl. -
My only concern is whether there's enough left if one of our starting pitchers goes down to fix the problem, if they're not willing to spend the money, they're going to have to give up talent and be in a relatively desperate situation. Like it or not, our "quality" depth isn't there like with some of the better contending AL teams...we absolutely can't afford to have many injuries. For example, at catcher. I still feel that if you look at the majority of contending teams around baseball, a lot of them have had really strong leaders in that position, guys like Posey, Molina, Sal Perez, Russell Martin, Weiters, Cervelli more recently, Montero, McCann, maybe not all "great" players but consistent, stable veteran leadership behind the plate. We just haven't had that since AJ, and it's critically important IMO.
-
If we have a $145-150 million payroll, sure.
-
QUOTE (ptatc @ Dec 30, 2015 -> 10:17 PM) Again, why do they have to be all in? The team is better. They dont have a two year window, it became longer. They upgraded the team while creating a bridge to the players you mentioned are ready. These moves created a now without hurting the future. I don't see where any of these moves shorten any window. Better...but "better enough"? They're seemingly close to being competitive...but do you honestly believe without adding any more players they have a better than 5-10% chance at making the playoffs? I'm of the school of thought, because of 2017 offering almost no free agent solutions (Carlos Gomez isn't even better the Eaton and is declining performance-wise)...that if there was ANY time to go for it, it's going to be right now. Otherwise, you're punting the football back to 2018, because you're going to need time for guys like Tim Anderson and Fulmer to acclimate in 2017. You don't have Montas, so that means Fulmer and eventually Adams/Guerrero need to make a big impact. And, it's also a little bit of the KW problem in the last half of his reign, the minor league system is no longer abundant enough that you can put enough secondary pieces together to pull off a huge trade...and/or you aren't willing to sacrifice one of your top 2-3 prospects.
-
1) Marketing is always a consideration (partial) in every trade, baseball is a business...but it should never be the main consideration. If you packaged the combination of all the players we've traded for Shark/Lawrie, what player could you acquire? We don't know. A long/er-term solution at catcher? We do know we have LESS starting pitching depth as a result. Whether it will or would be needed, time will tell. The biggest issue over the last 13 months isn't so much the trades as the fact that our financial flexibility has been dampened by LaRoche, Robertson, Duke, Bonifacio and Cabrera. That will be one of the main reasons given when/if they are unable to sign Cespedes/Gordon/Upton. It certainly won't be the 2017 payroll, because we're shedding LaRoche and Danks.
-
QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 30, 2015 -> 09:32 PM) Before the White Sox traded for Frazier, you said they wouldn't be able to compete for 2 years. Now it appears you are saying just the opposite, that they have 2 years to compete. Which of the prospects given up for Frazier were the key to the future? 2017 was always going to be the key year after most of last season's acquisitions fizzled out or under-performed badly. They re-opened that window again and went all-in, so of course the thinking has changed (once again). Now, they THEORETICALLY can compete with the current roster, but you can also make an argument for every single team in the AL with that line of thinking (compared to the NL, where you can eliminate 5-6 teams instantly). And they do have a current two-year window to compete (again), simply because of the players who will be leaving after 2017. We also don't have the luxury of knowing how Semien would have performed if given more time (compared to what Lawrie will do, and the fact he will have to be replaced). They would also be a lot better off having Bassitt or Montas as insurance for a hole in the rotation than Jacob Turner or Beck, but we'll find out how long they can go without having to use another starting pitcher. Right now, it's not looking particularly optimistic in terms of our position prospects unless Trey M., Engel, May and Hawkins make a lot more progress. We still don't have a catching solution in sight. The best-case scenario is that Fulmer and Anderson are both Rookie of the Year candidates in 2017 and 100% experienced and even better in 2018, like we expect that same progression from Rodon to take place this year. Quite obviously, Upton/Cespedes (Gordon to a lesser extent) would ALSO be the bridge to a new reloading in 2018...if it happens.
-
A lot of this is dependent on how healthy Ryu is...and what he has when he does come back. When he was going good 2-3 seasons ago, he was a solid #3 option, bordering on a weak 2 in the NL West. The Dodgers are currently dampening expectations and claiming that he's not going to be pressured to start the season in the rotation. Of course, the irony here is that they had a huge surplus of starting pitching a year ago (remember dumping Haren on FLA and basically paying his full contract?) and now it's one of their weak spots/vulnerabilities. Beyond that, this is the market for starting pitching. Some reports even had Chen of BALT closer to $75-100 million, but Iwakuma, Gallardo and Kazmir were all in this same 3 years/$50ish million range. Then below that you have the likes of Latos and Fister, which would/could be 2 White Sox potential targets if they miss on the Big 3.
-
https://www.overdrive.com/media/709737/wilpons-folly Just read anything from Megdal on Wilpon and the Mets. There's no way in hell they can afford Cespedes in 2018/19, and they can't afford the risk with signing him of being stuck with that contract since they already have $30 million balloon payments due on the Madoff settlement each year, basically like signing another Cespedes (+) except the money an outflow to creditors. Going back to Ptac's point, yes, it's POSSIBLE they can compete STILL, yes, it's probably NOT wise to sign Cespedes for 6 years (let alone Upton) and certainly not Alex Gordon for five, but the fact remains that: 1) They don't have enough minor league talent behind Anderson/Fulmer to pull off a major trade 2) That Cabrera, Lawrie and Frazier will be free agents after 2017 3) That next year's FA market is horrific 4) That another year of .500ish baseball would almost force a Quintana or Sale megatrade because there won't even be the talent available on the market to spend even if they want to do so. You can definitely see a scenario where they bring in one of Span/Parra/Jackson (no to Fowler because of the pick attached) and also add a starting pitcher that falls through the cracks for one year or one year and an option (like a Brett Anderson situation last year w/ LA, or Medlen with KC). Now that's going to move the needle up a bit, but is it enough? Maybe. Maybe not. They definitely should have a better option than Beck/Turner as their 6th starter. Realistically, you need seven legit starters at the beginning of the season in terms of depth, and I'm not even 100% convinced we have five right now with question marks about Erik Johnson still looming. The only other possibility is waiting for guys like Desmond and Fowler to not get signed and picking them up on "make good" or pillow deals for 1-2 years...but we all saw how poorly Kendrys Morales and Stephen Drew performed when their spring training time essentially began in May. Desmond would be more of an investment for 2017 than one with an immediate payoff in 2016. Of course, those two cases with veterans doesn't mean every single player under 30-31 will struggle to get their timing and offensive rhythm back to the same extent.
-
@SSS_joshnelson still preferred Gordon, made a formal offer and were ultimately turned down. Then quickly turned to finalize Cespedes Josh Nelson 5h5 hours ago Josh Nelson @SSS_joshnelson Another thought regarding White Sox rumors - I think Alex Gordon's heart is in KC. Ultimately I think he wants to stay. Someone is at least going along with that scenario that the Sox did make some type of formal offer to Gordon early this week...but how credible? Where is the ENIGMA machine to unscramble all the mixed signals?
-
What does Chris Rongey have to say...is he officially out now as far as being involved with the team next year?
-
What is the Sox fall back OF plan ?
caulfield12 replied to CaliSoxFanViaSWside's topic in Pale Hose Talk
QUOTE (scs787 @ Dec 30, 2015 -> 11:31 AM) Whatever happened to Alfredo Despaigne? I swear he defected last year. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alfredo_Despaigne Apparently he's under contract through 2016 in Japan. I'm also pretty sure he is being allowed to play there under an agreement with the Cuban government...but he can't currently go to an MLB team as things stand. -
QUOTE (OmarComing25 @ Dec 30, 2015 -> 07:17 AM) Jennings was fine the vast majority of the time, he had a 6 ER performance against the Reds that made his overall numbers look worse than they were. After the All-Star Break he had a 1.39 ERA. The problem is we need those numbers in April, May and June...
