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Everything posted by caulfield12
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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jun 29, 2015 -> 10:46 AM) Actually I think that was Robin Ventura but anyway. You might be 100% right. Ventura could have gone to KW/Hahn or even mentioned to JR at one time or another last season that there was no way to "fix the bullpen" without there being established/defined roles and someone at the back-end he could go to confidently...that the team was losing confidence in its ability to close out games and "expecting bad things to happen" (not unlike now) in the 7th, 8th or 9th inning. They tried to bluff their way through it when Nate Jones went down with Petricka and Belisario and the task proved to be too big.
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QUOTE (raBBit @ Jun 29, 2015 -> 10:45 AM) Yes! You're reading it wrong. KW acquired Billy Koch in 2003 so the David Robertson signing in 2015 was also Kenny. Right. KW basically had his viewpoint about what a closer should look like (more Koch/Jenks and less Foulke). For the last decade, he evolved and started following the A's philosophy of pump and dump with closers, so to speak. Now, all of a sudden, when we come off a year of bullpen struggling (same thing with 2007), we see an overreaction and over-investment in Duke/Robertson to correct for the lack of minor league development. Who advocated for this more, KW or Hahn?
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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jun 29, 2015 -> 10:39 AM) So you mention about 6 closer acquired on the cheap by....KW, and then say signing a closer to a big money deal seems like a KW move, when he really has never done it before. I can't believe I am defending him, but where do you come up with this BS? You tell me, who pushed the most to sign Robertson...was it Hahn, getting KW and JR on board....or KW, pushing Hahn to get it done and after/then convincing JR? We've read all the stories about how it actually took place at the winter meetings, but who was the one who pushed for the overpaid, expensive "elite" closer the most?
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QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Jun 29, 2015 -> 10:25 AM) Rongey had him on White Sox Weekly this Saturday and my god does he sound clueless. He literally offered no insights into any of our minor leaguers, but rather spit out high-level nonsense like "a lot of these guys can't do two things at once". He seems like one of those guys that pretends to have all the answers but simply spews a bunch of BS. Without question, Buddy Bell should be the first one to go if we shake up this organization. http://www.theheckler.com/2011/04/20/white...stupid-callers/ I'm not sure whether to laugh about stuff like this or feel that it's ridiculous we're supposed to feel sorry for him?
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QUOTE (ptatc @ Jun 29, 2015 -> 09:53 AM) The solutions are still very few. The families don't travel very often as no kids do very well leaving every 3 days and they can't travel with the team. Most of the players do not make the"millions" Don't forget about the February and March of Spring Training where the kids are in school and can't leave and neither can their fathers. don't forget they also started this in the minors as well. Baseball is not a lifestyle that is easy on a family. It is very difficult to make it work. If you value money over everything else and think it can make it work, you're right for some. However for many it doesn't. Just because they make alot of money doesn't make it an easy life. Their actual life is much more difficult than the average person. That is why many people including me got out of it. Agreed, that's why I gave up on minor league baseball after two seasons...it was taking my enjoyment away from the sport I loved. While in theory, the idea of doing what you love works (sometimes), it's hard to have the patience to fight for those 8-12 years and still not be sure you're going to end up in the destination in professional sports that makes all the sacrifices in terms of family/friends/social life/free time/travelling worthwhile.
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QUOTE (ptatc @ Jun 29, 2015 -> 10:23 AM) Hahn would need to be a complete idiot to take that job. There were two competing philosophies about closers. The KW one was to go out and get the established guy, like a Billy Koch....ignoring the fact that Howry, Foulke, Gordon, Takatsu, Hermanson and Jenks were all inexpensive and able to get the job done pretty darned effectively. We saw that trend continue with Sergio Santos, Hector Santiago and Addison Reed...shipping out pitchers from this position and continually trading them to fill in gaps (or try to) in other places. Essentially, copying the Oakland A's way of doing things, which wasn't to sink a ton of money into the closer's spot, and trade those players when they became more expensive. It DEFINITELY SEEMS like a KW move to go after an elite closer like Robertson and do a slight overpay...because it's ignoring that trend which has existed since 2002-2003 with the front office acting out of desperation (just like the Dotel/Linebrink/MacDougal deals).
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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jun 28, 2015 -> 01:35 PM) I don't know if Avisail Garcia can be turned into a successful ballplayer or not, but this is the mess the white sox are in. They have a roster no where near strong enough to compete even for a wild card even with significant extra spending and that isn't going to change any time soon. First they need to overhaul their player scouting. They can't keep acquiring these high risk players who don't contribute on defense and have poor approaches at the plate unless they develop a newly-found ability to coach those guys into hitters. That's on both scouting and development. They're doing terrible at it. Beyond that, they need to start over. Get rid of as much veteran payroll as they can. These guys are literally useless to this franchise. If all they turn into is guys who are relievers for Charlotte in 3 years, that's ok, it's better than what we have now. Next, they need to acquire as many Avisail Garcia like guys as they can and give them playing time as long as they're cheap. Guys with talent but who will need several years, at the least, to see if they can learn how to become big leaguers. The key for guys like this is "don't rely on them in the least". If they put up sub .700 OPS numbers for multiple years in a row, you cast them aside when they become expensive, and maybe you keep the solid contributor or two. Meanwhile, continue making picks at the top of the draft, and for gosh sake please don't give away any more 2nd and 3rd round picks for garbage like what we brought in this year until we actually have a roster around them. Stop trying for the quick fix, realize what kind of mess we've made, and act like it. The way out requires patience, coaching, and rebuilding the organization up and down. No more quick fixes. No more gambling $50 million payroll increases on highly questionable players. Another thing is that with the right defensive set-up, a fundamentally-sound middle infield and the players all buying in...you can turn guys like Jason Grilli or Mark Melancon into quasi-elite closers that aren't very expensive. Hahn got desperate and overreacted to the 2013 bullpen problems the same way KW overreacted to 2007 and went out and spent a lot of money on Dotel, MacDougal and Linebrink (compared to past years). While Robertson/Duke gave them a boost and helped keep them floating the first 6 weeks or so, the roof was bound to cave in at some point with the general direction of the entire roster pulling everyone but Sale down.
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QUOTE (ptatc @ Jun 29, 2015 -> 08:49 AM) This is true. Most of us don't miss all of our kids little league games, don't get to be there on their birthdays. We don't need to live away from our families for 8 months of the year. It's a pretty easy life for them because of the money. OTOH, with the money involved getting bigger and bigger, it's MUCH easier for those players and families to be together on the road for part of spring training (schools have breaks) and for at least half of the time during the summer. Sure, there are 81 road games, but with the money being what it is, even then....it's not an insurmountable obstacle for families to spend time together during summer vacation as well. Look at the situation with Mark Buehrle and his dogs...complicated, but not insurmountable. There's always a solution when millions of dollars are involved.
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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jun 29, 2015 -> 09:12 AM) The quickest fix will be several players returning to their former levels of play. It isn't so crazy it will happen. And we waited for Dunn and Danks to do just that....and, are still waiting. Even with Cabrera and Eaton hitting much better, this team is still fundamentally-flawed. With those players rising, guys like Ramirez, Beckham and Avi are correspondingly falling, so we're still not doing anything much besides treading water. If it's not the bullpen, it's the defense...if it's not the offense, it's the base running. We can fix one wall of the foundation, but the whole thing will collapse eventually and need to be rebuilt from the ground up. And I'm not even sure who we are waiting on NOW that we can expect to return us to greater glory? Alexei Ramirez? Samardzija? Quintana? Beckham? Sanchez? Gillaspie? Flowers? Robertson/Duke?
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QUOTE (shysocks @ Jun 29, 2015 -> 08:15 AM) Which major free agents were the Indians banking on? Their expectations were based on growth from starting pitching. Unless you're not counting them among the four teams that had expectations. Maybe backdating it to the idea of Swisher and Bourn coming in before 2013 (probably)....while their "core" of Santana/Brantley/Gomes/Kipnis/now Lindor has basically remained the same. Their pitching staff was either internally developed or traded for (Bauer/Carrasco), but no huge free agents additions there.
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QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Jun 29, 2015 -> 08:01 AM) I hope they don't overspend this year though. Ideally, they'll go nuts next year because I think the system will be different in 2017. The Yankees were/are just getting old, almost all their everyday position players. They had no choice but to bring in fresh blood. With the Cubs, it's more about that philosophy and the "niche exploitation" of the rules...they have PLENTY of position prospects (and added Eloy Jimenez, the #1 guy) simply because they want to build up enough talent/surplus they can use all of them to fix gaps in the pitching staff at the major league level. They will strike again in July/August simply because they're in a good position for the wild card and they have that surplus to trade from. And maybe the "insider knowledge" of impending rules changes, and the fact that now's as good a time as any to overspend in one particular year if they have the connections with those players and their agents...or the Red Sox with Rusney Castillo and Moncada. Same thing with the Dodgers, it's just a numbers game with guys like Puig, Guerrero, Arruebarruena and Hector Olivera. Throw enough talent and dollars at a problem, eventually the law of averages dictates some of it will stick.
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QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Jun 29, 2015 -> 08:12 AM) For sure. To me, the issues go back to those late Ozzie years though. From 2008-2011, this team used its already weak farm system to supplement the big league roster. There were multiple years that this team should have been "sellers" under KW/Ozzie and they hung around and just never did it. They went for it every year and took the draft and international market for granted. They weren't spending the appropriate amount of $$ in those areas. Hahn took over a barren system. I think his past few drafts have been positives and they've brought in some promising talent from the international market. I think that there is talent in the system but it is at AA and lower. They signed Abreu to a nice deal and he ended up being a superstar type hitter. They have a #1, and #2 starter locked up cheap for years. They didn't want to waste those years and they decided to take a shot this year. It backfired. They'll trade Shark, Ramirez, and maybe Duke. And then they'll try to win again in 2016. It's just what this organization does. At least the system is being fed finally though. I'd do more to take advantage of the international market but they are spending their full allotment on the draft and it will bear fruit in time. It was just neglected for so long that they find themselves in the immediate mess that they are in now. Pretty much. The only other way around it is huge spending on 23 and older Cubans and/or the Asian market. However, with the success of Kang with the Pirates, you'll start to see more openness as far as the Korean leagues, imo. He's the second guy after Choo (recently) to make an impact (not counting Hee Sop Choi and Chan Ho Park). The White Sox went to Takatsu and Iguchi and then seemingly abandoned that market, for whatever reasons. My biggest problem is that I'm just not convinced Ventura and KW are the right leaders for this new generation of baseball....I still think they're too traditional/old school. That said, the White Sox had the biggest gain in defensive shifts from 2013 to 2014....they went from 73 to 534 in one season. No other team in the 2014 Top 13 was under 249 shifts in 2013, so that has been a big organizational change.
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QUOTE (LDF @ Jun 29, 2015 -> 07:36 AM) imho, i think the value of Shark is still high. but other teams will play hard ball to low ball the sox in any trade. Well, my specific comment was on Quintana's value... As far Shark goes, the market will be set with Cueto/Hamels/Chapman, and then Samardzija and Kazmir (if the A's/Beane decide to trade him). Because of the asking prices out there on those first three, Samardzija will become a lot more attractive, IMO. It's always a case of supply and demand, and, other than the K and BB numbers with Jeff, everyone in baseball understands how bad the White Sox have been defensively and can look at all the fip/dip/drs data and reach their own conclusions about what's going on with his 2015 season (with the move to a tougher league/division and smaller parks being another element of his statistical slide).
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QUOTE (harkness @ Jun 29, 2015 -> 07:31 AM) On paper mass amounts of writers/pundits and baseball fans thought the Sox were going to be good (because of the roster/and moves). Now we have a ton of guys underperforming (nearly everyone). It's a little bit silly to think that has NOTHING to do with the coaching. I could start giving you some rosters of some other teams with good records that do not look any better than ours. And you can practically guarantee Farrell would be gone in Boston without 2013 to fall back on. All those teams who "won the offseason" (Padres, Mariners, White Sox) are struggling. Not surprisingly, the three teams below us in the MLB overall standings (Phils/Brewers/Marlins) have all changed their managers.
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QUOTE (BigHurt3515 @ Jun 27, 2015 -> 10:34 PM) That is kind of how I am as well lol. My theater does $5 movies on Tuesdays so I might wait and see it on a Tuesday and hope hardly anybody is there Glad I never saw the one with Richard Gere and Joan Allen in the theatres....the Japanese story based on HACHIKO, the Akita. That was 100X worse than Marley & Me, because I'd already read the book/s and knew Marley's ending. TED 2 was as expected, it had its funny moments and cruel humour, but it is just came off as a bit disjointed (literally, with all the marijuana bongs, and figuratively). I guess the first point is there's just no way to replace Mila Kunis, even though Amanda "Gollum" Seyfried does her game best. Macfarlane is really pushing the line with what a white writer can get away with...I'm sure a lot of African-Americans would have been offended by some of the jokes, although that's par for the course and almost expected with him. The story is more about TED and Tammy-Lynn, it's almost like they wanted to sneak another Mark Wahlberg film into the market but he wasn't really 100% free to play the main character, so they built the story around Ted's baby/adoption and then constitutional rights later on. Morgan Freeman's appearance near the end is almost jarring, where the movie takes on an AMISTAD feel (briefly) that's a bit misplaced or just doesn't quite feel appropriate (linking slavery/Dred Scott with a toy's "rights") in the light of recent events around the U.S. The heart of the first movie was the attempt for John to hold onto his relationships with both Ted and Mila Kunis. That dynamic is completely missing from this one. (Note: I'm happy I recently sold my Hasbro stock...inside joke).
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QUOTE (LDF @ Jun 29, 2015 -> 07:18 AM) how many games can be blamed on RV miscalculations??? yesterday game is proof, Jeff should have been removed. To go back to that point, why do teams like the Cardinals, Rays and Rangers always have multiple minor league options to fill in for major league injuries....whereas we've had no major injuries during the season, yet still aren't even close to having the ability to fill in most of the gaps in the 25 man roster from Charlotte and Birmingham.
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QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Jun 29, 2015 -> 07:04 AM) There is one overriding constant to being a really good coach though: they all have/had really good players. And that's management's response to cover for Ventura. That he overachieved and ALMOST won Manager of the Year in 2012. The problem with this particular line of defense is that it also opens up the front office to even more questioning...if the talent level from a "near playoff" team in 2012 has degraded so badly, whose fault is that, then, precisely?
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QUOTE (SCCWS @ Jun 29, 2015 -> 06:41 AM) Doubt you get a catcher for Shark. I think you get a solid prospect like an OF or 2B. Q would bring a Catcher+ in offseason. I would hope so, he's a TOP FIVE WAR LHP for the entire major leagues since 2012, ahead of even Bumgarner and Lester. The absolute decrepitude of our defense is making him look like an "average" pitcher, and our offense's lack of run support is making it nearly impossible for him to get some quality wins and build back his confidence to 2012-14 levels. Now every GM knows this, but they are what's depressing his value a bit.
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QUOTE (Rowand44 @ Jun 29, 2015 -> 06:50 AM) What? I like the use of BUSCH, haha. Because the Cardinals (Busch/Budweiser ties) and Tigers are/were technically small market teams and both have exploited this definition to get extra picks in the draft, although both operate like bigger market teams than the White Sox.
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http://www.baseballprospectus.com/sortable...php?cid=1819124 I'm currently reading the book BIG DATA BASEBALL (2013/14 Pittsburgh Pirates' resurgence) and thought I'd bring up this particular discussion. It seems to be the only argument for keeping Tyler Flowers, and Soto to a lesser extent. The main thesis of the book is the "unexploited" niche value of pitch framing, and how that enabled them to identify Russell Martin (despite his .211 average in 2012) as THE free agent catcher to acquire based on this statistic, and the fact that his offensive downturn allowed them to offer only $17 million over two years. If you look at the numbers for F. Cervelli, you'll find him #2, with popular offseason acquisition targets Grandal #1 and Jason Castro #4, as well as Miguel Montero at #9 and Rene Rivera (see article http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2...ytics/25417499/ ) at #12 and much higher last year, #1. Obviously, there's not a 100% correlation with winning/playoff teams, as you'll see Mike Zunino (of the Tyler Flowers School of Offense) very high on the list as well, with the Mariners. There does appear to be a positive correlation, though, between teams in the playoff hunt and this particular statistic, specifically with the Pirates and their focus on its value. Some of the younger catchers on the positive side of the ledger are Hedges, Plawecki and Caleb Joseph...fwiw. The main point is that the Pirates and Rays (with Martin, Cervelli and Rene Rivera) found veteran, "high leadership value" catchers for bargain prices. The second most important point is the value of pitch framing was used in the targeting of Francisco Liriano (who ended up signing for $1 million in 2013 after the contract was voided due to an offseason broken arm, he later reached the incentives to build value back up and kick in an $8 million 2014 deal)... That the MAIN reason Liriano was poised for a comeback were that his peripheral pitching numbers were much better than his traditional stats, and that his "stuff" had returned by late 2012 (pitch fx, etc.), almost to the level of 2006 (just a couple of ticks off with fb and slider). The book points out how poor Ryan Doumit, Butera and Mauer (Twins) along with AJ Pierzynski (2012) were at pitch framing as support for the pairing of Liriano with R.Martin and now Cervelli. Finally, you can also see the value of this pitch framing with Edinson Volquez's career comeback (with the Pirates), which he's now carried over to the Royals. And all this is not to argue that Tyler Flowers should be the starter in 2016, it's just one way to view or "frame" the discussion...so to speak...and perhaps further evidence the Sox front office is starting to pay attention to these advanced statistical metrics. (Unfortunately, it's too late to "rescue" 2012, though.) The scary part is how EARLY the Pirates started to look at advanced statistics and build their own huge database...it began well over a decade ago, and was adopted first on the minor league level, where all their affiliates FORCED their 2B and SS to shift closer to 1B and 3B as an organizational philosophy...in the beginning, they even had plastic spikes in the ground to mark the positions and remind their players. It wasn't until 2013 (with Hurdle's job on the line) that they got together with the advanced metrics people and GM and started meeting weekly in the off season and daily in season to look at the whole shifting trend and how best to implement it at the big league level to maximum effect. Can Robin Ventura adjust with the time, like Clint Hurdle did? Time will tell, but it's the MAIN reason they (the Pirates) were able to take an average or below-average defensive team and make it a great one in one offseason without changing much of the talent on the roster (especially on their INF corners).
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It's really quite simple....who do you think is best prepared to adapt to a new paradigm shift in baseball and lead the White Sox to the World Series again? KW? Hahn? Buddy Bell? Robin Ventura? Doug Laumann/Nick Capra? The obvious answer is it's either Hahn or someone from outside the organization.
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QUOTE (Jake @ Jun 28, 2015 -> 10:37 PM) With each coming year, betting big on the top tier FAs looks more like a fool's errand Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez aren't exactly helping that cause out.
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http://espn.go.com/los-angeles/mlb/story/_...adjust-pitching Mattingly questions Puig's desire to adjust to pitching (should probably send the memo over to Steverson as well)
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When is the last time an NL player got better with Sox?
caulfield12 replied to caulfield12's topic in Pale Hose Talk
QUOTE (Vance Law @ Jun 28, 2015 -> 08:30 PM) So you have a high strikeout slugger in his 30s who never hit for average who saw a decline in his final 4 years before retiring. Not the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse. No. On the other hand, 2011 did happen...and if that was his 2014 season instead (which would have been the natural or expected career progression), it wouldn't have mattered so much to the franchise. Or, if he he didn't slump at the end of 2012 and they had made the playoffs instead of tanking/tiring/choking, a lot would have been forgiven for that as well. Perception is always more important than reality with most fanbases. -
Well, it's that time of year again....2015 edition
caulfield12 replied to ChiliIrishHammock24's topic in Pale Hose Talk
QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Jun 28, 2015 -> 07:32 PM) Me too sort of. I will always believe a team that can reverse their bad season and end up well meaning the players they already have improve is worth much more than some hit or miss prospects which the Sox have proved they can't handle (position players). Their players would be worth more in trades upon improvement than the draft position is worth. Of course they have proved worthless in acquiring new players too so its altogether disheartening on so many levels. The problem is that Ramirez and Samardzija are the only pieces likely to go somewhere...unless you believe they'll try to cut bait on Robertson and LaRoche as well. (And even here, we could make good arguments for keeping Ramirez with his value so low and no replacement for 2016.) We're pretty much stuck with Cabrera, Eaton (and he's been much better), Avi, Danks, etc. Finally, all the remaining position players like Gillaspie, Beckham, Sanchez, Flowers, Bonifacio and Soto have pretty limited trade value. We're kind of stuck in a "treading water" situation where the best we can hope for is that Avi and Rodon both continue to improve and someone like Crain, Nate Jones, E. Johnson, Beck, Montas or Danish can look like a piece for 2016 and beyond. Or that Micah Johnson or Sanchez can be relied upon for 2B/SS (either/or) beginning in April next year.
