caulfield12

15 homers now, 39 RBI's, 778 OPS .248 BA 1.2 WAR (updated) 1.3 WAR Todd Frazier

By WAR, he's 14th and on a pace for a 2.5-2.7 season (still behind lesser hitters/better defenders like Iglesias and Russell). OPS-wise, 11th. So I would say you have, at the very least, a league average SS, cost-controlled. All things considered, that's the type of asset you want to have. Right now, Tim Anderson's worth 0.6 in first first 73 AB's. It's not quite so simple as just projecting him to 2.0-2.4 for roughly the same number of ab's, but all we can do is extrapolate for now with such a limited sample size. Personally, I think he's closer to a 3 and MAYBE a 4 WAR ss over an entire season, we'll just have to wait and see how it plays out. Frazier has regressed from 5.3 (2014) to 4 (2015) to 1.3 so far this year. Trayce actually put up a 1.5 in 122 ab's with the Sox last year, but he's now at only 0.6 over nearly 200 with the Dodgers in 2016. Avi's been worth -0.3 over his last 700 at-bat's, so about the best argument to be made is you're probably looking at a win difference of roughly 1.5-2.0 with Semien as the DH. Not enough to put us in the playoff picture, exactly. It was arguable about a month ago (that they would have been better off with Thompson/Montas), but now that trade for Frazier doesn't look like a clear win for either side. The results are inconclusive, at best.

He's quietly on a pace for a 30-35 HR season at SS...that nobody but roto league owners will even pay attention to.

Not sure why in god's name you would launch a Civil War history biopic in the middle of the summer...poor timing. First critical or box office miss for Matthew McConaughey in his last 5 movies. I'll go with Finding Dory, The Conjuring 2, Weiner, The Nice Guys, Eye in the Sky. Whiskey Tango Foxtrot, Zootopia, Cloverfield. Working on Demolition. Started The Witch and just couldn't get into it. Knight of Cups was too pretentious.

Semien with his 15th homer of the season already, ironically against Jeff Samardzija. On a pace for 30-35 homers at SS.

Well, there you go...the ONE season he played with complete confidence, from May until maybe mid August that year. Faded at the end. But even Mark Teahen had a stretch like that ONCE in his career.

QUOTE (Tex @ Jun 24, 2016 -> 06:59 AM) Oops. Hillary and the Don both have issues. So they balance each other out and people are looking at the future and where each candidate wants to take the US. Do you (or anyone, for that matter) honestly have an idea where he wants to take the country? Which candidate? The primary one? The one the last 6 weeks or so? The Democrat from 10-15 years ago?

Rondon or Alvarez would be nice bench guys, 2-3 years from now...just not sure if the Sox have the patience to wait on their bats to come around. With the offensive challenges this organization faces, though, not sure that we could afford to give up that much OPS for defense-first players. Then we have the "Carlos Sanchez/Saladino" problem...where a player gets stereotyped as a utility guy after a limited number of major league at-bats that aren't that success (500's OPS). The same thing more or less happened with Semien, and then Micah just didn't have the arm to play other positions other than second or he would have fallen into the same trap as well. Leury Garcia's another obvious name that comes to mind. And Eduardo Escobar. Guess it's not such a great thing to claim we specialize in developing "utility" infielders.

Beckham wasn't lacking in confidence in the least, on the surface. (Mentally, he was always compared to Paulie and Quentin.) He just didn't have the hand speed to make up for that hitch. You never saw Beckham absolutely smash-pull a 95+ fastball to LF, maybe ever...

QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Jun 27, 2016 -> 05:41 PM) If you want to compare Anderson to another AA former Sox Lance Johnson is a much better comp. Great hit tool, tall rangy athlete, not much patience, decent amount of pop, not a great natural base stealer despite the speed. Lance wasn't even as tall as his baseball card would claim (5'10, 160 pounds). No arm. Outfielder. Didn't have nearly the home run pop we've seen from Anderson early. Let's just say he's a mixture of Johnson/Durham and leave it at that, irrespective of position, hitting LH or RH, etc. Just thought of someone else who he reminds me of...now that I think about it, a taller Chone Figgins (not sure if he'll ever put up those SB numbers) also comes to mind because of his bat positioning. Not sure if Anderson will ever end up playing 2B/3B/OF in addition to his natural spot. Flashback to the term "cutting and slashing"...who was it that Harrelson always said that about, was it Warren Newson, Norberto Paco Martin or Ozuna?

31 walks in 471 plate appearances his rookie season is hardly Moneyball. 6.6%. Obviously, he picked it up after that, but I was thinking back to my impression of when he first came up with the Sox in 1995. In the minors, 168 walks in 1568 at-bats. 10.7% 11.1% walk rate over his entire major league career. Fine, in every aspect of their games (besides walk rate), they have similarities. Anderson has a better arm. The one area that Ray was excellent at defensively was going into shallow OF or into foul territory for those basket catches....he had huge range on those balls, but not as much on the infield/laterally.

Indians also already have 8 sweeps of 3-4 game series (not including winning 3 in a row against the Sox when they were 3 1/2 GB). Have beaten the Tigers all 9 times they've played this year.

The connection with Beckham is they were both college players, similar spots in the first round, came from power conferences (ACC/SEC) for baseball, Beckham was the Golden Spikes winner that year...so his profile was even a bit higher than Collins, even. At any rate, you potentially see (or saw) that issue of position changes trying to get their bats to the big leagues as quickly as possible. Beckham from SS to 3B because there was a hole there after Crede's back problems. Collins, because we desperately need another power bat in the line-up and also because the market for catching is so poor (W.Ramos and Wieters potentially, and I think Jason Castro.)

20-25 years ago, nobody (well, only Bill James) was talking about walk rates and OBP.

I think any team could live with a 725-750 OPSing SS with his athleticism and solid/above-average fielding. With Machado, Correa and Lindor, he won't be making many All-Star teams at SS. And expecting 20 homer seasons would be a bit presumptuous. I'd prefer to think of him as a consistent 12-15 homer per season guy that might put up 18-20 once in his career, when he's older and gains some more weight and slows down a bit. The comp I keep coming back to is Ray Durham. Similar speed, Anderson is the superior defender at the more important position on the infield. You'll see a sprinkling of xb hits (especially triples on the road)....and it would be VERY helpful if his stolen base technique could be refined to where he's putting up 30-40 (50 seems a bit high in this current age of baseball, not to mention the wear and tear consequences) steals per season. That's a consistent 3-4 WAR SS. Without the walks and depressed OBP/OPS resulting from that, he's not going to be a 4-6 WAR player, but you just never know.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jun 27, 2016 -> 10:00 AM) If anyone knows goalpost moving, you are the one. If you want to judge your minor leagues on W-L records, you have a big problem. The object isn't to win games, it's to develop players. It's a much better system than when Hahn took over. In fact, you yourself Mr. Goalpost said the ONLY reason to pay attention to the White Sox anymore was Tim Anderson, and the 3 draft picks this year. You pointed out they would get rolled by Toronto, that Minnesota is playing better (they have won 6 of their last 16) and are out for revenge, so the Sox have no chance against them, and that then the trip to Houston where the Astros pretty much won't lose again will end the White Sox season. You are just wrong. Again. They are competing right now. In fact, before the season started you stated Detroit and KC were all in, the Sox were just eating at the kiddie table. They are right with them. Cleveland has busted out on a hot streak, but they, as unbelievable as this may seem, will go bad again. Since you don't have an answer, let's go with 84 wins, the SoxTalk pre-season average...or 85, somewhere in that 83-85 range. Do you think finishing close to .500 (barring any major injuries) constitutes a successful season? And what should be the bar for 2017, being "sort of" close to the playoff/wild card hunt? Simply said that Minnesota was playing better (in general) without defining it...you had it the last 16 games, I'm sure those numbers (without even looking them up) would be closer to .500 if we extended it out, so that means the White Sox SHOULD win 2/3 if not 3/3, right? Predicting every single game or series in baseball is pretty hard to do, but there are "general trends." If you really believe the White Sox are going to roll the Astros and go 5-1 the next 6 games, more power to you. Eating at the kiddie table? Well, Detroit and KC are "all in" and will be making moves in the trade market...will the White Sox match them? The White Sox could be 7 1/2 games back after tonight, unless you're going to assume that the Braves roll over the Indians. http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CH...le-scores.shtml A year ago on this exact date, 32-40 and 13 games back. Congrats to Rick Hahn for the huge improvement. Don't know what we would do without him.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jun 27, 2016 -> 07:58 AM) Am I missing something here? Despite all of the moaning, the White Sox aren't on a pace to lose 140 games. They won 63 Hahn's first year, 73 his second, 76 his 3rd and are .500 right now despite an insanely bad stretch of baseball. The minor leaguers appear to be getting better. He's made some mistakes. All GMs made some mistakes. But they aren't dead this year. Finish up strong before the All Star break and anything can happen. Cleveland isn't going to win all the rest of their games. Houston isn't going to win all the rest of their games. They are on a roll right now, but baseball happens and they will go bad at some point. Even the almighty Cubs have won only 1 of their last 7. So what you're saying is that you had no expectations in 2013 and 2015, and perhaps this year...so when, realistically, did you expect them to actually compete? We're moving the goalposts here to being "satisfied" with a .500ish finish when everyone said at the beginning of the year that such a mark would definitely get Ventura fired. Can we expect to compete for a wild card finally in 2017? Everything written here could have been cribbed from SoxTalk at this same exact time last year...or especially approaching the end of July, when the team went on a mini-run to hover around the .500 mark. And I'm not sure what signs we're seeing about the minor league system...we have one of the worst combined records for all our minor league affiliates in all of baseball. Now, that alone isn't indicative of a poor system, but it's just one of many signs. Sure, Collins/Burdi/Hansen are encouraging, or Curbelo...and maybe those first three guys can all contribute in 2017, but that's the same old problem the White Sox are always accused of...rushing prospects to fill holes on the major league roster. One paramount concern is that each year there's always one guy (last year, Montas) who really takes strides forward and make himself a legit candidate for inclusion in the Top 100 list. We don't have anyone approaching that right now. Maybe guys like Stephens or Engel or Danish are enough to snag Beltran or Bruce, guess we'll just have to wait and see. Bruce makes perfect sense because he would be under contract this year and next (club option), so they would have at least five legit core pieces (Eaton/Abreu/Frazier/Cabrera/Bruce + Anderson) going into a "make or break season." And, if they do have to finally retool or dismantle the 2016/17 teams/rosters, there's just ZERO reason that Hahn would be the best candidate to do so.

Of course, the Peavy deal (contract extension) was not exactly met with universal praise, either. Seemed a bit ill-advised, like the club didn't have a clear direction. Same thing with the time when they extended Danks and turned around and traded their closer for scraps simultaneously. Still amazed that we got anything out of Peavy.

I was going to say $60 million for 3 years is the most I would possibly offer Encarnacion, and even that seems $5-10 million too high. Somehow, Encarnacion without the "protection" of 3-4 other dominant hitters surrounding him in TOR turns into Cory Snyder and another contract albatross hung around Hahn's neck. They're much better off piecing things together with Bruce or Carlos Beltran at that position (for now). Bruce is really good, you can THINK about picking up his 2017 option...and we probably (in Sept) need to give Coats/Hayes/Delmonico more of a look to see if any of them have the stuff to be counted upon.

At this point, Beltran and Bruce are probably the best options for DH (and wouldn't require giving up prospects in the Top 60-75)...meaning Carson Fulmer would be off the table. Bruce shouldn't be out in the field anymore, but that's fine as long as Austin Jackson comes back after the ASB and is close to 100%. There's an option for 2017, so they could decide over the next 3 months if they wanted to exercise it. Another pitcher Hahn should have targeted, and is in the last year of his contract...Jeremy Hellickson of the Phillies. That would have been the much smarter move than James Shields, IMO. Of course, one of the reasons Shields was brought on board was uncertainty about filling out the rotation in 2017 and 2018 (beyond Fulmer and Hansen), and the upcoming weak free agent class.

At this point, Beltran and Bruce are probably the best options for DH (and wouldn't require giving up prospects in the Top 60-75)...meaning Carson Fulmer would be off the table. Bruce shouldn't be out in the field anymore, but that's fine as long as Austin Jackson comes back after the ASB and is close to 100%. There's an option for 2017, so they could decide over the next 3 months if they wanted to exercise it. Another pitcher Hahn should have targeted, and is in the last year of his contract...Jeremy Hellickson of the Phillies. That would have been the much smarter move than James Shields, IMO. Of course, one of the reasons Shields was brought on board was uncertainty about filling out the rotation in 2017 and 2018 (beyond Fulmer and Hansen), and the upcoming weak free agent class.

Don't forget about the Branster. That was simply an incredible episode...especially everyone pledging their loyalty and the title song starting to kick in there at the end...reminded me of some of the best elements of Gladiator, gets your blood flowing and emotions going. What will Sansa do? Will she be content to take a role in the shadows or see the spotlight? Will we get a water/naval battle before they reach Westeros with the King of the Iron Islands? Would it even be plausible those forces would stand a chance, with any strategy on the water completely nullified by the dragons lighting all their ships afire? Will Jamie and Lady Brienne reconnect? Where do Clegane and Arya fit into all of this? Will the Red Witch be seen again (and in what capacity?)...you could tell Jon didn't have the heart to hang the woman who brought him back from the dead. Hard to imagine she would ever align against him at any point in the future. Is the next military battle for what's left of the Frey legacy, or does it simply crumble quietly aside in terms of the overall story? Next, do Jon and Danaerys unite and turn north against the White Walkers or take out King's Landing/Casterly Rock first? Will Jaimie stay on as military commander...? Will he mercifully put Cersei down or will she live on to see the great battle? Will someone from the House of Dorne or Lady Tyrell be the one to end her life? Suicide? Will Jamie end up in the presumed endgame fighting with Jon/Danaerys and Lady Brienne in that massive battle against the White Walkers?

QUOTE (Dunt @ Jun 26, 2016 -> 09:29 PM) I'm not sure it happens, but wouldn't it be fun for the Sox to just live with Collins defense next year and add him and a guy like Encarncion to DH. That lineup would have so much firepower. Anderson SS Eaton RF Abreu 1B Encarnacion DH Collins C Frazier 3B Cabrera LF Lawrie 2B Jackson/May/Engel? CF The potential of that is scary Considering his age, but also past production (which is no guarantee of future production for 30+ players)....what contract would you offer Encarnacion that would be enticing enough for him to leave Toronto (I'm assuming they will end up keeping 1 of him or Bautista, but not losing both).

When's the last time a collegiate catcher jumped from the draft to the majors the following season? Just curious. Charles Johnson with the Marlins, maybe? I think he also played at Univ of Miami if I recall correctly. I think it would be mistake, though, primarily because all of the mental aspects of catching are going to have a completely negative effect on his hitting if he's just totally overwhelmed. Do you really want to take a college catcher whose future position isn't even 100% clear yet and throw him into the fire of another "all in" season? You seemingly owe him the rest of this season, the entire offseason, spring training and probably 2-3 months next year in the minors. Of course, if he just completely lights up Winston-Salem and then Birmingham in August, you can THINK about giving him some more tutoring/mentoring time in Chicago in September. That would be invaluable for him. Then probably the Arizona Fall League as well. It might almost make just as much sense to have him be the DH for the Sox next year...if they're really hoping to rush to Chicago in 2017. Of course, the obvious problem there is you've wasted a year of development time in terms of honing his catching craft. Not an easy position to be in. Someone like Wilson Ramos will get a HUGE contract because of the dearth of catching on the market...perhaps the same with Matt Wieters if he can stay healthy this year.

I suppose we can't completely discount the possibility of riding Avila's currently hot bat for awhile at DH...the problem is that forces Navarro into the line-up too. If you catch Avila, you'll probably wear down his offensive ability over time. Catch Navarro, the defense/pitch-framing/throwing sucks.