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Everything posted by caulfield12
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"That's your boy out there..." Sale, according to the Tigers' TV lipreading crew. Something about someone in CF is signalling to the DET batters somehow about the pitch calls/signals from the catcher.
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Martinez 15/28 lifetime against Sale. That's one strong argument for signing him, lol... 25 walks and now SIX K's in his last 173 plate appearances for Martinez....you don't sign a TOP FIVE AL MVP guy at that age, it would be just about the definition of insane. For the Royals though, he makes perfect sense if they can also bring in a replacement for Shields. Sale with way too many pitches to make it past the sixth at this rate. Abreu seemingly running out of gas the last 6-8 weeks. Not hitting the ball with any type of authority...but still getting singles and doubles.
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Why would we just magically assume Ethier's going to put up a 2 WAR converting to the American League when he's a 0 WAR or slighly negative player right now...? And that Dayan would be a -0.7 again in 2015 when he's the far younger player? That's not even taking into consideration WAR/$. If Viciedo has another bad season, you non-tender him, but you're stuck for years with an aging Ethier (see Dunn/Rios/Danks). Believing that playing Carlos Sanchez over Gordon Beckham next year will make much of a difference...not buying that one, either. Joba? Yikes. I'm not even going to buy that Santana's going to pitch that well as is being projected, back in the AL again with how tough the Tigers, Indians and even Twins (Buxton and Sano) and Royals (only losing Butler and Aoki, Perez and Hosmer should be better, along with Moustakas) look offensively. The Twins have a bunch of guys in Vargas, Arcia, Salazar, Plouffe, Dozier, Suzuki, Mauer, Buxton, Sano, etc., that will be able to hurt you.... Finally, assuming Rodon's already going to be a +3....well, we would have said the same thing about Erik Johnson heading into this year. I'm not counting on those numbers until 2015.
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Two "easy as pie" innings now for Sale. ERA down to 2.17. If he could end the game in the 2.00-2.09 range, that would give him a bit of a stronger case for the Cy, although probably the only way he was going to win was ending up below 2.00 because of the 7-8 missing starts compared to the other contenders. Scherzer and Lester will get consideration as well.
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QUOTE (raBBit @ Sep 24, 2014 -> 11:33 AM) Game thread... I don't think anyone cares anymore at this point. It's also relevant since Sale/Kluber/Felix are the three relevant names in consideration at this point for the Cy Young. Sale throwing an easy 96 MPH in the first...great move by Ventura to walk Victor Martinez and not let him beat you, despite how good JD Martinez has been this year. Maddon would routinely walk Miggy Cabrera with a runner at 1B and two outs to put two runners on, with one pushed into scoring position.
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QUOTE (SoxPride18 @ Sep 24, 2014 -> 11:21 AM) These are my guys that I'm targeting. I would target Dickerson and Rex Brothers from the Rockies and try to get Jay Bruce and Mat Latos from the Reds. Latos will be too expensive in terms of minor league talent surrendered. Bruce, there's no way they're going to sell so low unless they believe he's never going to return to his previous form. Finally, would the Reds really be interested in Alexei Ramirez when they have Zack Cozart already? Ditching Latos/Bruce/Phillips doesn't make logical sense to then turn around and bring in another aging veteran and block a younger/developing guy at a premium position.
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Does Kluber win the Cy Young over Hernandez and Sale if the Indians were in the playoffs instead of on the outside looking in? Hernandez is one more terrible/fading out of gas starts from being in a bit of jeopardy vis a vis Kluber for the Cy.
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QUOTE (SCCWS @ Sep 24, 2014 -> 11:11 AM) Not necessarily. Tampa would be giving up a 33yr old $7 Mil # 1 0r 2 batter for a 25 yr old # 5 or 6 batter who makes less than 1/2 what Zobrist does. Tampa got 2 young infielders in the Price trade so they may make Zobrist available. Except Zobrist is 10X more valuable WAR-wise because of his versatility, better defensive abilities and overall offensive superiority except in homers. To call Viciedo a 5/6 hitter doesn't really jive with that WAR. Just because Ventura's hit him 5-7 for most of this season doesn't mean he's lived up to that expected level of production. Considering the fact that half or or more of the board don't even want to tender Dayan a contract for 2015, why would the Rays give up ANYTHING for that level of production or MORE when they can get it for free on the waiver wire (see JD Martinez or Steve Pearce, McHugh or Noesi on the pitching side, etc.)?
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QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Sep 24, 2014 -> 10:58 AM) There a lot of reasons to explain Ethier's downside that aren't he's past his prime. Most of them have to go with inconsistent playing time and overall unhappiness with the situation. I think Ethier is a really nice fit who can play a solid LF and could also fill in at 1B and DH and play match-ups. You then find a right handed bat as well who you can use in the outfield and at DH as well. You still have plenty of AB's to go for Semien / Sanchez / Johnson too. Then you're also willing to buy the "Davidson sucked this year largely due to disappointment about not starting the season with the White Sox as the Opening Day starter at 3B" theory?
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QUOTE (raBBit @ Sep 24, 2014 -> 08:54 AM) Nitpicking but Ethier has only played 1st base for 4 innings in his career. It'll be interesting to see what the Dodgers do with their glut of outfielders. I think you can pencil in Pederson in CF and Puig in RF, but then they have Crawford, Ethier, Kemp and Van Slyke for the 3rd and 4th spots. I would think they would be inclined to keep Van Slyke because he can back up CF as well as 1B, with both positions being held down by left-handed bats. I would actually take on a package of Ethier, Van Slyke and cash but I don't know what would make sense as a return. Turnaround and sign Rasmus to a one year deal. LF, 1B and DH would be covered by Rasmus/Ethier/Van Slyke/Abreu. Abreu could play plenty of DH with Van Slyke starting at 1B. CF and RF would be Eaton and Garcia with Rasmus being able to take over in CF if/when Eaton gets injured. Defense, left-handedness and power is improved. Ethier isn't great as whole but he's a left-handed bat that could play against RHP. Rasmus is a nut job but on a risk-free contract his defense and left-handed power is exactly what we need. Van Slyke seems like he just needs playing time. He gets better every year, has a great idea of the zone and is a decent defender with a little flexibility. Plus (SSS alert!), he has been horrible at Dodger Stadium this year and amazing on the road. vs. RHP CF Eaton SS Alexei 1B Abreu DH Ethier RF/LF Garcia RF/LF Rasmus C Flowers 3B Gillaspie 2B whoever vs. LHP CF Eaton 3B Semien 1B/DH Abreu RF Garcia LF/1B Van Slyke DH/LF Ethier/Rasmus SS Ramirez C Flowers 2B whoever Please define exactly how low this no-risk Rasmus deal is going to go...I'm not buying it. He's going to get a lot more than Keppinger, Downs and Paulino combined per season.
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QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Sep 24, 2014 -> 08:54 AM) Without looking at names, if you tell me a guy has had 1 good season in the last 5 and another has had 4 good seasons in the last 5, I think the player most likely to have a good season the following year is the guy with 4 good seasons. Yes, there is a risk, but there is with any move. Ethier has a track record productivity but he's seen his playing time diminish substantially this year due to a logjam in the OF and 1B which can mess with a player's psyche and rhythm, both of which are important to production. The Dodgers would have to include a considerable amount to make the deal worthwhile - he's guaranteed $54.5 mill over the next 3 seasons, so I'd say they need to cover approximately $24 million, at the bare minimum (John Danks just so happens to be owed $28.4 mill over the next 2 seasons, which is $26 million over 3 seasons). You give them Danks, Trayce Thompson, and Kevan Smith/Adrian Nieto/Josh Phegley and see where they're at. Wasn't that pretty much Adam Dunn's situation when he was acquired...had slumped for 2+ months to end a season? Or Scott Downs?
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QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Sep 24, 2014 -> 10:18 AM) I would love it if Hahn just went out and said something like that at a press conference. Reporter: "Now that you've traded franchise cornerstone Alexei Ramirez, how do you plan to address the SS issue? There are obviously internal options, but some have speculated that free agent JJ Hardy might be a good fit." Hahn: "Free agency is an avenue we'll explore, but JJ Hardy isn't really on our radar. Collectively, we simply wouldn't be able to watch his girly throwing motion all year." I don't think we need the additional handicap of a NOW boycott of Sox games to go along with another "Hawkism."
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QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Sep 24, 2014 -> 07:31 AM) For Justin Morneau? I think you're crazy. I just meant in general...for the right player. I'd rather give up those other four guys together than Montas. I don't think we'll even remember any of them five years from now, except in a very vague way, like Jon Gilmore or Santos Rodriguez.
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QUOTE (beautox @ Sep 24, 2014 -> 02:17 AM) Great post. - Personally I wouldn't pay for Martin, career year over 30 plays the most demanding position on the diamond. I would prefer Hahn try and buy low on Grandal, his sept is a marked improvement over the rest of his year. - I've been saying for a few months now that trading Alexei to the yankees makes way too much sense and honestly we should be looking at a package similar to this for his services RHP Luis Severino, LHP Manny Banuelos & SS Jorge Mateo - Sign Rasmus he hits everything that Hahn is looking for: Left hand, power, defense relatively young & shouldn't cost much. I agree we should be looking for 4 outfielders total though but i still think in a rebuilding year Wilkins should be given 3-500 major league at bats just to close the book on him if he is only a AAAA player. If we're going to add a pitcher I think the sox would be better served adding Maeda than anyone else out there this offseason and Rodon shouldn't be brought up till super 2 passes, Hahn has figured out how to deal with Boras and its simple: limit the number of draft picks represented by him and precede to sign every other pick leaving him with a finite budget in addition to leaving yourself an out with a reach incase he denies you. That's assuming they DON'T go after Hanley Ramirez or JJ Hardy, depending on whether his option is picked up by BALT. The Tigers will be trying to unload Iglesias or Suarez (likely Iglesias, so that will undercut Alexei's value a bit as well). There are a couple of other options in play as well, such as Jed Lowrie, trying to keep Stephen Drew, etc. The Mariners have another Brendan Ryan type in Brad Miller they'll attempt to trade, since they've found a better offensive SS who doesn't hit with a wet newspaper. Eduardo Escobar will be available too, as the Twins are likely to move Salazar back to SS when/if Buxton and Hicks come back healthy.
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Sept 23 game thread vs Detroit
caulfield12 replied to southsider2k5's topic in 2014 Season in Review
QUOTE (SoxAce @ Sep 23, 2014 -> 06:17 PM) He has never been a guy who was considered to have great stuff. Not sure why this is comming as a surprise. He's actually the most similar to Putnam, probably. Movement/location and the sinker. -
I don't think Ethier in LF, Viciedo at DH is much of an upgrade over Viciedo in LF, Dunn at DH....and spending that money on Santana when we might be able to get similar production out of Bassitt or Beck, for example. If we were getting younger, that would be one thing, but Ethier and Dunn are both closer to retirement than their prime productive years. (Of course, you can also make the assumption that another bat would be brought in to face RH pitching at DH/LF). As far as pitching goes, those were the arguments made consistently last year about not pulling the trigger on Jimenez or Santana....that Paulino MIGHT be even better and for a fraction of the cost. So I'd argue it's better to hedge some bets and spend less money on say Haren or Josh Beckett and use that extra money to patch the bullpen. Finally, there's no indication that teams like the Dodgers or Yankees are even interested in Danks, even with a significant subsidy or bad contract going the other way to compensate.
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Sept 23 game thread vs Detroit
caulfield12 replied to southsider2k5's topic in 2014 Season in Review
Konerko blows the easy double play ball...but gets one out at 1B. Viciedo had a nice defensive play to hold JD Martinez at a single before that. Tigers' announcers, for some reason, believe Josh Phegley is a very good defensive catcher. Clutch double by Omar Infante gives the Royals an early 2-0 lead. Battle of fireballers with Ventura and Danny Salazar. Royals should be up 4 or 5 to 0, but with that bullpen, they only need to get the game to the 6th or 7th with the lead. Cano got a two out 2 run-scoring single after Ackley K'ed with the bases loaded and one out to give the M's a 2-1 lead over the Blue Jays in the 4th. -
Sept 23 game thread vs Detroit
caulfield12 replied to southsider2k5's topic in 2014 Season in Review
Viciedo hit that double off the end of his bat. By the way, great hustle by Avisail. F--- the Tigers' announcers, so cocky about beating Carroll, that Price will return to Cy Young form magically and that Chris Bassitt was "lucky" to beat them last night. Semien with another K. Toronto already out in front of SEA (King Felix) 1-0 in the 2nd. Carroll averaging 3 BB's and just 4 K's per 9 IP. Anything below 5.5 is considered dangerous. Continues the depressingly low swing and miss rate. -
QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Sep 23, 2014 -> 05:09 PM) I presume you are doing it because you are trying to field a contending team sooner. You aren't replacing Rodon, rather you are replacing Danks with Santana and putting less pressure on Rodon. You are going with a rotation of Sale / Q / Santana / Noesi / Rodon. You then are running out a more capable outfielder that you got for Danks (say Ethier) and then moving guys like Bassit / Carroll to the bullpen and maybe making another bullpen signing. Plus you might be exploring other positional upgrades as well. Clearly you also have to figure out a way to add one more bat to the mix as well. A 1-2 WAR upgrade can be a pretty significant difference in the grand scheme of things, especially if who you got for Danks (while overpriced) is a 1-2 WAR upgrade as well over your existing starter in the outfield. Now you are talking 2-4 WAR upgrade, which doesn't amount to 2-4 wins and could actually have a much larger impact then that. Bottom line you are making your team better while not adding on any extremely long term deals so when guys like Ethier / Santana come off books, the timing goes well with other young guys on the existing roster who can get raises, etc, plus you also have flexibility to add new pieces to put you further over the top potentially. Sounds good in theory if Ethier's slump is an anomaly caused by inconsistent playing time and not the signal of a decline. Also, his splits are even more pronounced than in 2011-2013. The Dodgers are more likely to want to keep Hanley Ramirez and move him to 3B after Uribe leaves at the end of 2015, but there's also a very good chance Hanley ends up with an AL team where he can DH occasionally instead of being exposed to the rigors of SS everyday, where he's one of the 5-6 worst guys in baseball defensively but the best offensively. They can patch the back end of their rotation, rather than take on a bad contract. I think they'd be willing to send Ethier?Crawford AND money for something, but NOT take on Danks.
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QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Sep 23, 2014 -> 03:24 PM) Ok after discussing it all thread I think I'm ready to be flamed. Three Yeps. 1. and ultimately most important one that must be accomplished early in the off season. Sign Victor Martinez This will send a message to the rest of the free agents and our own fans that we are ready to contend now. Yes he's old but having a monster year and often described as one the most intelligent hitters in baseball. I'd start the bidding at 3yrs $45M and be willing to go 3/$60M . Do you want to see Abreu pitched around even more than he has been since it became apparent he was a stud ? Abreu becomes less valuable without a deterrent to always walking him. Martinez instantly solves this. Rather than try to figure out who the best LH hitting outfielders are like the perpetual enigmas Colby Rasmus or Melky Cabrera you put your money on a sure thing and VMart is the closest bet to a sure thing as a hitter as you're going to find. You just don't fall off a cliff after the career and year he's had barring injury. He is also Venezuelan as is Avi Garcia who could benefit immensely from having VMart around. It also just might increase season ticket sales . 2. Sign more free agents particularly David Robertson and Brandon McCarthy We all know the bullpen needs a closer and since we signed VMart we will need a closer . These guys won't come cheap since they both have had good years . Maybe VMart plus these 2 adds $45M per yr to the annual payroll and if each can be signed for 3 yrs. it doesn't strangle the payroll for too long. It should really help towards fixing the bullpen and adding another starter which we'll need to do both in order to contend in 2015. If by some miracle the Sox manage to sign all 3 we can then either keep or trade Alexei for either minor leaguers or wherever the ML team might need help perhaps another BP arm . I lean towards trading him because he's valuable and now that we signed 3 free agents all in their 30's we need more youth. Now that we have signed all 3 we have a window of contention to work the young starting pitching into the rotation . Rodon, Bassitt, Montas, Danish even Erik Johnson if he can somehow find his way back to where he was. 3.Make the team more baseball savvy This of course started with the signing of VMart who understands hitting. Their are certain guys out there known for being ballplayers , high baseball IQ's good fielders , sound fundamentally , good base runners. One of these guys is LH OF Michael Saunders who at 28 for next yr. might be ready to have his best seasons if he can stay healthy . Maybe Alexi to the Mariners for Saunders and a prospect . Saunders is rare in that early in his career he wasn't an OBP guy but has somehow become one though he hasn't yet broken through with a high batting average. He has decent pop which would play better here than in Seattle. 3 Nopes 1.Don't keep Dayan Viciedo . He and Alexei, Bellasario, Lindstrom can all be traded for other meat puppets. 2. Don't waste time or resources trying to find a catcher , not even a prospect. I thought that's why we kept Nieto on the roster all year. Is he not a prospect ? Flowers will do just fine. If Nieto is destined to be a minor leaguer now that he's spent the whole year with us add a veteran catcher who comes cheap ,a LH since Flowers is RH who has good defensive skills. Catchers are woefully bad hitters nowadays so whats the sense of trying to find a needle in a haystack ? 3. Never stop trying to find a taker for John Danks . Package him with Alexei, eat half or more of his salary if need be. Maybe the Yanks take him if they show us they want Alexei bad enough. I actually wouldn't mind keeping him but we just signed a bunch of free agents so now he really has to go. He's working very hard to try to get become better and he just might. Belisario and Lindstrom can't be traded for even a bag of baseballs because they won't be offered contracts to return. Dayan's iffy right now, that he's tendered a one year arbitration deal. The M's already have two young shortstops with some upside, especially Taylor, IMO. Miller's a great defender but iffy bat. While I could see them wanting to pair Ramirez with Cano to win now, they're not going to want to part with Jackson or Saunders to accomplish that. They MIGHT be willing to trade Miller and Maurer for Alexei, though, along with one more prospect in the minors or Smoak. Would you take Smoak OR Ackley, B. Miller and Maurer for Alexei? I wouldn't. Sure it SOUNDS good, 3 for 1, but I'm pretty sure none of those three guys would be key cogs in a future team, unless they were pretty sure they could fix Smoak hitting-wise or Maurer could become a closer. Finally, I'd rather gamble on Josh Beckett at half the price than Brandon McCarthy. And McCarthy's going to get 2 or 3 years.
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QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Sep 23, 2014 -> 03:18 PM) Who knows exactly what they ask for, but if they insist on one of Montas, Beck, Rondon, Ravelo, and Sanchez, which of those are you most willing to deal? Those are all B-level prospects with fairly good upside. I don't see them taking a guy like Trayce Thompson or Jacob May or Kevan Smith. If I am trading a prospect (or multiple prospects) at this point - and I have no aversion to doing so - it's not for a guy who might be forced to retire due injuries or a guy who's 34 on a 1 year deal. I wouldn't give up Montas. Too much upside as either a starter or closer. Don't care about giving up any of those other four...heck...all four of them together.
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QUOTE (LDF @ Sep 23, 2014 -> 02:52 PM) I agree in the most part, a couple of months ago I was trying to factor this trade with the dodgers. first the sox trade for 1 of their outfielders with a big contract for danks. dodgers add salary. the problems with this danks contracts has 2 yrs left, how many more yrs and salary will be on the sox to eat? this is all I said before, second, the dodgers need to add prospect or 2 to offset that additional salary for those yrs. the dodgers are in a big need to shed salary, now that kemp has regain his hitting. sorry about the late replying, I was at work before. now I am home. Not to shed salary, they're rolling in dough. It's to ease the chemistry issues created trying to balance the respective egos of Kemp and Puig, getting enough at-bats for Ethier and Crawford to keep them sharp and productive as well as opening up a position for super prospect Joc Pederson.
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QUOTE (greg775 @ Sep 23, 2014 -> 02:14 PM) Here's all it would take to win NOW. You tell me what our payroll would be. Add Markaikas. Add a starting pitcher (somebody like Santana; i said "like" Santana doesn't have to be him. Add two veteran bullpen guys and pray they improve. And if possible get a platoon partner for Gillaspie. Do these things and we WIN and don't waste Abreu and Sale any more. Do any of you actually disagree with what I said is true? Would it put Jerry in the poorhouse to make these moves? Are all of these moves possible? I think my post speaks for itself and is accurate. You've just spent another $40 million, roughly. $35 on the bottom, possibly $50 million in the upper range. At any rate, internally we already have Semien to pair with Conor, so no need to spend there. The problem is that team's still going to come up short at 2B, catcher (Flowers' deficiencies are well known, in terms of K's and inconsistent offensive numbers)....and the biggest issue is that there's no sure-fire solution for DH. Keeping Viciedo and moving him to DH? And would Dayan even put up a 750-800 OPS against only LH pitching? Maybe, maybe not. We don't know how he would adjust to sporadic playing time, and then who would your DH be against RHP? Adam Dunn? Paul Konerko (joking)? At any rate, you're average or below league average then at C, 2B (Sanchez/Semien/Johnson) and DH....and not really being sure what we're going to get out of Avisail Garcia as a full-time player, if Conor can repeat, if Alexei can sustain his offensive success...if Abreu can continue to hit with so much power without Dunn behind him, etc. I don't even think giving Markakis 2-3 years would lead to even league average offensive production as he inevitably declines. In your scenario, they're one bat short, and probably still one starting pitcher short. Sale Quintana Mystery veteran 3 guy Danks Noesi If Rodon's ready to be the man in 2014 at some point, MAYBE...but we certainly can't count on that transpiring. And Danks would have to pitch much better than he has. And Noesi would have to repeat what he's been able to accomplish in 2014 (see Phil Humber).
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QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Sep 23, 2014 -> 01:23 PM) Both ends of the spectrum between yours and Caulfields responses. I'm more in line with Caulfield . The Yanks wouldn't trade Betances for Alexei and Gary Sanchez isn't at all what he's cracked up to be . He's had discipline problems at AA and didnt hit all that well. If you want instant contender , VMart, Robertson,and BMac gives you a very strong 2015 . Try getting the Yanks to take Danks too while your at it .Even eat some salary if you think you can sign the FA's I mentioned . Heck I might trade Alexei and Danks both for Betances if I knew I could sign VMart, Robertson and BMac with Rodon and Bassitt on the horizon with the outside chance Erik Johson could bounce back. Pen fixed, rotation fixed , lineup much stronger. If you think Robertson and BMac add up to $24M /yr and lets say 2/3 yrs of VMart at $20M /yr that's $44M added to the annual payroll - Danks salary of $14 M is only $30 added to the annual payroll for a 3 yr period maybe for each player. By the time those contracts end Rodon or Bassitt or Montas or Danish or some combination of them move into the rotation so not only do you have instant contender but a window to work the young pitchers into the rotation while still competing. That's where this whole idea falls apart. The Yankees have legit concerns about even being able to afford Hanley Ramirez, they're looking at $170 million in commitments and that's not even keeping Robertson. Would you bring in another bad contract on the pitching side when you already have Sabathia, the inherent/ongoing risks with Tanaka, A-Rod, etc.? I know I wouldn't. Plus, they have Greene and Pineda, there's zero reason they HAVE to take on another bad contract. http://sports.yahoo.com/news/hanley-ramire...-173002313.html If they weren't asking for Betances, they might be able to dangle Ramirez and attach Danks to that deal (like Teahen/EJax with much bigger financial stakes)...but there's no way they make any type of move and get the likes of Hughes and Betances back without eating at least 50-75% of Danks' deal. And then you're having to replace Alexei Ramirez, which obviously won't be easy.
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QUOTE (scs787 @ Sep 23, 2014 -> 01:20 PM) I've been down on Semien a bit offensively, but if the Sox can get a haul for Lexi then I think he'd be the everyday SS. I wouldn't hate to see what Semien could do with everyday ABs to try and prove my "fears" wrong about him at the dish. Leury would not be the starting SS. 100% favor Semien over Sanchez at SS, but then there's the issue of taking LH bats away from Conor at 3B. I guess they could give those AB's to Sanchez as the superutility guy, and start Semien at SS....but I don't think starting both Semien and Sanchez is the right answer for 2015 or 2016. Trading Alexei next June/July would make a bit more sense....you could move Semien to that position full-time, Micah Johnson would be the new starting 2B and Sanchez the back-up option at all three positions, compared to Leury this year. The problem is that Semien's got to put up a 675-700, maybe 725 OPS to have real value at short because he's likely to be below-average at that position defensively...especially in his first season or so playing SS exclusively. I think the jury's far from out whether he can hit major league stuff consistently enough to put up those numbers. MAYBE.
