caulfield12

If it was announced that Mark Ellis signed today (which obviously is impossible) for $4.5 million for 2009 with a team option for 2010 in 2010 for $5.5 million and a buy-out for something like $500K to $1 million, would most Sox fans be happy? I think the reaction would be pretty "blah" about such a move. It would be a pretty big gamble. I guess it depends on what kind of gambles we're also making/taking at 3B and in CF. IF we had Fields as the starter at 3B with Swisher in CF again, and our only "improvement" was Mark Ellis and Clayton Richard was likewise our 5th starter (with Javy Vazquez as the fourth), then I would probably pick this team for 3rd place, at best, maybe 4th.

It's just logical. 1) The highest percentage of growth in baseball demographics is Latin America over the last 10-15 years...with the dropoff in African-Americans perhaps levelling off and eventually stabilizing with the RBI programs as well as the fact that basketball is due for some economic problems if the current economic conditions persist for a few years. You're already starting to see players go to Europe. 2) We have Guillen and Cora, who both should have advantages relating to Spanish born players 3) Guillen was the first Latino/Hispanic manager to win the World Series, and he has HUGE name recognition in Venezuela 4) We have recent examples of success with Damaso Marte (until 05), Alexei Ramirez, Jose Contreras, El Duque, Luis Vizcaino, Ordonez, Carlos Lee, Jose Valentin, etc....going all the way back in history to Minoso and Aparicio. Carlos Quentin sort of counts, lol. And Borchard's family spoke Spanish.

Something I find interesting is that we've put very little money into signing Latin American players to big ($500K plus) signing bonuses...with the dearth of high first round draft picks over the years, I would think there would be something of a focus here. Maybe we can attribute this to problems with Dave Wilder, but it has to go deeper than just the Dominican, because we've struggled with Venezuela as well, despite Guillen being a national hero there to many. I'm not sure where the lack of focus and attention comes from or if it is attributable to KW and JR's philosophy on spending or what it is...just kind of curious. We've invested in a Korean pitcher, Brazilian (Gomes?), we have Silverio and Martinez who may or may not eventually make an impact...but you have to go back to Ordonez and Carlos Lee for some "born and bred" Latin prospects we've incubated from age 16. Of course, we also have Alexei Ramirez, Tadahito Iguchi and Shingo Takatsu as more recent examples of international success...but no Dominicans or Venezuelans, which is about 30-40% of the MLB talent pool right now, along with the developing Asian market/s like China,Taiwan and Korea (and of course Japan).

I'm not going to buy the fact that subbing Ellis for Cabrera is improving our offense somehow...at best, we're treading water. He has played 122 games, 124 games and 117 games in three of the last four years, only once reaching the 150 mark. Cabrera, if nothing else, was very durable and could always be expected to answer the bell. If we want Chris Getz or someone else to get 40+ starts, maybe he's our guy??? I just can't see how his durability improves over time, and why KW would invest $10+ million over 2 years in a 31 year-old 2B who's not really a legit speed threat anymore (probably similar to Cabrera, maybe 5-7 less steals).

"He said that he throws 92 MPH." Well, I guess we'll have about 30 scouts verifying that...and whether it's 92 with wicked movement or 92 MPH Billy Koch style. Big difference.

As long as we don't see Beckham, Ellis AND Getz together...I think that would be giving up way too much offense. He's into his 30's now (warning sign #1 on Ellis), he made $5 million last year (too expensive vis a vis just going with Getz and investing the money elsewhere, as noted with previous discussions about the ROI of putting $10-12 million per year into an aging Hudson)...he hit only .233 with a .694 OPS and he's coming off an injury-plagued year. In fact, he seems to have always had problems with injuries, not quite like Rocco Baldelli, but close. He is good at taking walks and can steal you 18-24 bases per year, but I think we can do better than Mark Ellis. At least I HOPE so.

Hudson at $10-12 million over 3 years. No go. Hudson at $8-10 million over 2 years. Maybe. Mark Ellis...probably not, but a remote possibility. Certainly not on KW's Top 5 "most wanted" list.

I really think we give up a lot of our offensive advantage putting Alexei in CF. Out there in CF, he's good to very good offensively (compared to MLB norms), but if we can get his pop from SS and Beckham's from 2B (assuming we can get 20-25 homers and 75-80 RBI's at 3B)...then we're in REALLY good shape. That does allow us to have a speedster/leadoff hitter like Taveras (not him specifically though!) without many homers in CF...or maybe someone like CoCo Crisp, depending on what we have to give up. If the time horizon on Beckham is mid-2010 as many claim, it makes VERY little sense to go out and sign an Orlando Hudson long-term or trade for Chone Figgins, unless you really want to lock Beckham in at 3B...which is where it seems he would be the worst fit offensively (saying that not projecting as a corner infielder type of hitter, but more of a line drive, doubles/gap hitter who will get 18-24 per season due to Comiskey). OTOH, KW is always in a "win now" mode, and Beckham, AT BEST, MIGHT make us more competitive in 2010...so I'm not sure Beckham's development is influencing KW's "in the present" decision-making process as of yet.

QUOTE (whitesoxbrian @ Oct 14, 2008 -> 07:30 AM) That's the thing- there's no way they deal him. Well, I'm sure they won't deal him to us either, but I wanted to put together a complete expanded "universe" of all the players at that position (middle infielders) who are in their mid to late 20's and fit the Carlos Quentin profile. Because Jones has some time at SS, I thought he was interesting name to include...just for conversation's sake. (And just because talking about the same players over and over again is a little boring...and because nearly everyone said the player that KW goes after won't be on most of our radar screens but will be a name out of left field). Definitely, we're more likely to go after Roberts (an iffy proposition at best to fight off the Cubs, who will be doubly determined) and the Orioles are going to try to find a suitor for Mora as well IMO...if there's some kind of megatrade that goes down, we might make Jones the "deal-breaker" if the O's GM can't find any other way to get the talent/prospects he wants back for either Roberts or Mora. I will agree thought that Jones, undoubtedly, is likely to stay put.

Remember A-Rod trying to interrupt the end of the World Series last year with his ridiculous contract complaints? That didn't make too many in NYC or the Commissioner's Office very happy, to say the least. I guess Darth Boras was elated, at least.

QUOTE (joesaiditstrue @ Oct 14, 2008 -> 04:43 AM) when does the trade wire start officially? december? traditionally around the time of the Winter Meetings in the first or 2nd week of December...it used to be that tons of trades went down at this event, but it has faded in importance in the last 10-15 years it was a good way to get attention focused back on baseball in the winter months...but, with 24 hour news cycles and the Internet, not so relevant...one of the more interesting parts of it is the Rule V draft these days sometimes, KW doesn't even spend the full amount of time there (he tends to want to operate under the radar, and "big" events tend to bring too much focus and speculation on the deals he's attempting to make behind the scenes...generally, December and January are the best months for player movement and possible trades

I just don't think it is in KW's nature to trade for a 2B who is not only going to be expensive to acquire, but is also going into the most expensive period (prime) of his career in contract terms as well...Edgar Renteria makes almost as much sense, guessing along with KW and Ozzie. We have 4 months to wait....well, 3 at least.

I was trying to figure out what move KW would make at 2B/SS and I came up with this all-encompassing list of possibilities...that could play SS and/or 2B, depending on what Williams decides to do with CF and SS (Alexei Ramirez). Very unlikely Age 20...Elvis Andrus, Braves Prospects/Suspects 23...Marcus Sanders (SFG) coming off injury 23...Chris Nelson (Rockies) very, very low OPS in minors, once considered a premiere prospect 24...Joel Guzman (Rays) at 3B now, came up as SS, could he also play 2B, like Iwamura did with Longoria taking over there? 24...Joaquin Arias (Rangers) 24...Cliff Pennington (A's) Will take Crosby's spot??? 24...Brandon Wood (Angels) Would the Angels give up on him this quickly? 25...Brent Lillibridge (Braves) 25...Sergio Santos (Twins)...once considered a star, Twins will never give him to us, unless he's released outright 26...Jayson Nix (Rockies)...a possible KW target??? Most Interesting Names (thinking of the Carlos Quentin acquisition) 23...Adam Jones, great athlete, came up as a SS originally, a few similarities with Alexei Ramirez (not power hitter yet, or accomplished basestealer) 25...Jose Lopez (Mariners) how expensive would he be to acquire? 25...Ronny Cedeno (Cubs) can he hit enough to not be a utility player? 26...Aaron Hill (Blue Jays) coming off very disappointing season 26...Richie Weeks (Brewers) DITTO, available for the right price? 26...JJ Hardy (Brewers) will be replaced soon by cheaper and younger Escobar, has he reached his peak? Cost of acquisition? 26...Josh Barfield (Indians) can he be rehabilitated, and would the Indians let us have him? 28...Scott Hairston (Padres) very interesting power numbers in limited at-bats, White Sox connection through father Oldies but not goodies??? 29...Bobby Crosby injury-prone, has BB given up on him? 29...Khalil Greene have Padres given up on him? 29...Chris Burke acquire at lowest possible price and see what he can do in ST? probably not a good idea to give starting job, let him compete with Getz 33...Kaz Matsui (great season at big league level after redeeming career, KW already has experience with Japanese players)

QUOTE (Thunderbolt @ Oct 9, 2008 -> 07:43 PM) Are we talking about a rotation of Buehrle, Floyd, Danks, Poreda, and Richard? Because that's four Lefties in a row matter where you spin it, and Ozzie usually likes to rotates righties/lefties so as to give hitters different looks. "Maybe it makes more sense with Poreda in the rotation and Richard as the 5th starter?" What I was trying to do, by asking that question, was argue on behalf of Poreda as the fifth starter and Clayton as loogy. Not four lefties in rotation.

No, the poster (I thought) wanted Poreda in bullpen with Thornton as closer (with Jenks traded)...at least I thought, maybe my brain's not functioning before 8 am here in Thailand. I thought Poreda in the rotation and Richard as the 2nd lefty (Logan's spot) was a better choice, but only if Poreda's secondary pitches are good enough now to get through the line-up 2-3 times.

But aren't Poreda and Thornton essentially similar pitchers....with Poreda a tick or two slower with the FB? Both of them have meh/so-so sliders and off-speed pitches. Something of a big game to go into season relying on Dotel and Linebrink again, but there's not much choice but to hold onto Scott coming off the last two months and maybe trading Dotel for a couple of AA/AAA relievers with electric but inconsistent stuff...or major league relievers in their first 3 seasons. Somebody mentioned Villanueva from MIL as an example of one of these pitchers, as part of a possibly Hardy/Vazquez deal. Maybe it makes more sense with Poreda in the rotation and Richard as the 5th starter? It all depends on how confident they are in Poreda sustaining velocity, not getting hammered when he gets behind in the count and how his stuff translates the second or third time through the line-up.

Machine translation of Spanish from articulos originales son teribles! The funny thing is that I haven't really used it for 3 years now, but I am teaching Spanish to a Thai/Chinese girl here in Thailand who's taking an on-line course from Canada. I learned it for 3 years in high school and two semesters at University of Iowa (then didn't use it for quite some time), but there's no substitute for living in a Spanish speaking country for 6-12 months.

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Oct 9, 2008 -> 04:54 PM) He's the exact type of guy the club needs. High average, high OBP, solid speed. The Sox don't have another guy out there like him. He fits into the "Twins" mold and I'm not about to say we should turn our team into the Twins but there is a major benefit to having a few guys throughout the lineup that can hit for a high average. That high average hitter should be able to hit even the best pitchers and its easier to get a single or basehit off a good pticher than it is a HR so you are increasing your chance at getting that one run across in a "key" situation. I'd love to find a way to get a CF/2B who both could hit around .300 with a .360 OBP and play decent defense. You do that and stick whoever the f*** at 3B and go with Ramirez at SS and I'm loving the lineup. You got enough power between Dye/Thome/Konerko/Quentin. You are right about DeJesus being a potential franchise guy. He's signed to an affordable extension but the Royals could get a bigger "face" in Swisher plus some prospects (maybe Broadway & Anderson or whomever). I just wouldn't give up Poreda or Shelby. I'd even trade Josh FIelds but they would clearly have little use for Fields. Swisher is also very affordable so its not like the Royals would have trouble fitting him into payroll. Having lived in KC for about 10 years.... 1) DeJesus is more popular and is more identified with the Royals than Swisher ever will/would be 2) The Royals' fans are somewhat oblivious to West Coast players because of the time zone difference 3) Remember, they need players to be identified as "Royals" to build the brand again with Mike Sweeney gone 4) They have Teahen and Gordon for 3B, and Shealy/Gload at 1st, not a trade partner for Fields unless it's back to LF (and they don't want that in such a spacious outfield that plays big except in July-mid September) 5) Swisher, if he hits as normally expected, should be paid right around the same salary as Swisher, so there's negligible difference...the Royals do need to get back more pop, but the only logical place for Swisher there would be in RF (if they move Teahen) or 1B. Or they can DH Jose Guillen more often and not put him in RF/LF (although Guillen's arm is still a decent asset, his speed is definitely not now that he's aging).

QUOTE (Jake @ Oct 9, 2008 -> 06:08 PM) Cubano, if you'd like to speak in spanish I'm in my fourth year of learning spanish and can try to help translate to the other posters. Also, what's the word on Viciedo? By this I mean how does he play? I saw a little about his fielding, but what about his offense? Does he project to be a big leaguer soon? Yo tambien. Vivi en Colombia para un ano con mucha chicas bonitas, en Armenia, pero solo visite Cartagena y Baranquilla al norte.

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Oct 9, 2008 -> 04:17 PM) I would love to package Swisher and a prospect for David DeJesus. Heck, maybe even offer up Brian Anderson in the package. DeJesus would be a perfect fit in the 2 spot and would allow the Sox to focus the rest of the off-season finding a 3B/2Bman. DeJesus hits for an average and is well liked, but Swisher still can hit for power and is a guy that I'm sure the fan base would rally around in KC. Again, I don't know if the Royals do that deal but DeJesus would be one of my top priorities if I were Kenny. Kenny could than decide what to do with Josh Fields. Personally I'd target a young 3rd baseman and than consider going with Alexei and DeJesus a top the order with Getz and a young 3rd baseman (Not FIELDS though) rounding things out. IT would be a cheap off-season and Kenny could potentially find a way to pick up another reliever and than obviously the club would have to find another starter as I'd anticipate the trade of Javy Vazquez. The problem with DeJesus is that he's just a so-so CFer (arm strength again)...he's essentially a corner outfielder playing CF. Traditionally, you need to have more pop from the corner/s, which is where they have Guillen and Teahen (who also lacks pop for RF/3B on a good team) playing the majority of time. He's a nice little player, but I don't think he's the answer either. And I highly doubt that Dayton Moore would make that move...certainly not for Anderson, they have a player with more potential (Gathright) but many of the same offensive woes, as well as nagging injury problems. DeJesus is the kind of player who will be quietly making about $8 million soon, and I'm not sure he's THAT good...I mean, I would rather keep Anderson and not pay DeJesus that much of a difference (like the discussion about Getz at minimum versus Hudson at $12 million). All things being equal, I would rather put $8 million in the starting rotation than David DeJesus over BA. I don't see why we have to anticipate a Vazquez trade, unless the Great Depression really is upon us, in which case the entire payroll would have to come down 25-30% to offset a loss of season ticket sales...it will be interesting if the Dow falls another 1-2,000 points, how that drop starts affecting revenues, payrolls, company promotions and season ticket sales, and which markets will be hardest hit. The irony is the economy going south really helps the Sox, because the Chicago area is more resilient I think than Detroit and Cleveland. I don't know if KW is having this thought, and maybe I'm reading too much into the downturn, but I think this will be an interesting area to monitor...cutbacks in sports promotion and advertising in general during times of austerity. Well, as Darth Vader/James Earl Jones said famously, "people will come."

Castillo isn't really a leadoff hitter anymore...he would be much better as a #2, which is where Minnesota mostly used him.

The A's are leading the charge for international free agent pitcher Michael Inoa; they could offer him $4MM. All teams have scouted him. MLB.com's Jim Molony names the Astros, Yankees, Cardinals, Angels, Mets, and Pirates as teams considering Cuban defector Dayan Viciedo (assuming he becomes a free agent). According to another article I've read, a total of 14 teams have already made contact with Viciedo through his agent. http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3433834 Above...very good summary of the top Latin (minus Cuban) prospects in the world for MLB, ranked in order

Dayan Viciedo Defects From Cuba By Nat Boyle [June 8, 2008 at 9:37am CST] 12:45pm Baseball America's John Manuel has a solid write up on Viciedo and his free agent status. Agent Jamie Torres says, "He was processed at the end of May. To me, he was not drafted and should be an undrafted free agent. We’ll see if the union agrees with me." The catch here is whether or not Viciedo is subject to the rules of the draft now that he's in the U.S. Had he gone to the Dominican Republic, for example, he could be a free agent. Since teams weren't informed of his eligibility to be signed or drafted, his status remains to be determined. Manuel also presents mixed reviews of Viciedo's potential, but his hitting ability is not in question. According to Jorge Ebro and Wilfredo Cancio Isla of the Miami Herald, Dayan Viciedo, a 19 year old Cuban ballplayer, has defected from his home country and arrived in Miami with renewed motivation. This is a new name for me, but Ebro and Cancio shed some light on the arrival of a promising new talent: "Born March 10, 1989... Viciedo is regarded as the best Cuban baseball player in the past eight years after Kendry Morales, who defected in 2004 and now plays in the Los Angeles Angels' system. 'Dayán is going to spark a lot of talk in the majors,'' said his agent, Puerto Rican lawyer Jaime Torres, 'He has arrived with youth, he is very versatile and his conditioning is exceptional. We will soon see him wearing the uniform of a major league team.'" Viciedo is 6'2", 202 lbs capable of playing SS, 3B, and OF. According to the Havana Journal, at 16 he was the youngest Cuban All Star in history. At 18, he was chosen to play in the World Baseball Classic in the U.S. and is often compared to Omar Linares, one of the greatest Cuban players of all time. Baseball in Cuba has been on continued decline without motivated players. No word on interested teams yet. Anyone have any more insight on Viciedo? By Nat Boyle (www.mlbtraderumors.com) I first watched Viciedo play as a 16-year old in Cuba. He was a shortstop with great range and a strong arm, but was moved to third base because Villa Clara's shortstop, Paret, is a star with cuba's National Team. The comment that Cuban baseball is in decline is absurd. The most recent season was perhhaps the best ever and featured some stellar performances by players who would star in the major leagues. Santaigo's right fielder, Alexei Bell, set league records with 31 home runs and 111 RBI. (The Cuban season is only 90 games.) Whoever claims that Cuban ballplayers are not motivated has, clearly, never seen a game in Cuba. Earlier this year I watched Santiago de Cuba play Industriales in Havana. The rivalry of these teams is every bit as intense as that between the Yankees and Red Sox. American baseball fans with me at the game commented that it was the best baseball that they ahd ever seen. Cuban finished second in the 2006 World Baseball Classic. They will field an oustanding team in 2009. Kit Krieger

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Oct 9, 2008 -> 12:30 PM) On the other side of the coin, the Indians really started playing well when they got rid of him and CC. Although I do think he's a better option than 162 games of watching Josh Fields strike out. I'm hoping the Sox go after Blalock. I think he can be had relatively cheaply, will make about $6 million next year, and may be ready to start hitting again. Get a couple of guys who can run in CF and 2B, move Ramirez to SS add a reliever or 2. Get rid of Vazquez. Sign a reclimation project or 2 ie Freddy or Bartolo, and the Sox will rule the Central. I think there was just so much turmoil and media attention around Sabathia that it got the better of the Indians. Most importantly, the injuries to Hafner and Martinez. Not coincidentally, Francisco and Franklin Gutierrez started to come into their own, and Peralta and Cabrera and Garko all picked it up. I think Cabrera will end up at SS with Peralta moving to first or 3B and Martinez getting more PT at 1B with Shoppach taking more of the catching time to prevent further physical deterioration to Victor. That kind of leaves Garko, who had a VERY strong second half, as the odd man out. Sizemore was the only constant throughout the entire season, probably the best player in the AL now overall. Not unlike the Royals taking out the Twins, the Indians knew they were out of the playoff hunt, knew Sabathia was gone and that they could just relax and work towards improving for 2009. They still have huge problems after Lee and Carmona in their rotation, and their bullpen is bigger mess than Detroit's.

Losing Cabrera...we just don't have very many "contact" hitters on this team....just Ramirez and AJ. We need a little more balance than that. Hopefully it will come from 2B/SS/CF/C, the heart of defense and the spark plugs of the offense (in a perfect Sox world).