caulfield12

We can't say that definitively because that means he will have played with four teams already the first 1/3rd of his career. Is he a National for the HoF because of the WS win there? Players do care about their long-term legacy. If he's 100% set on a destination and gets traded there...you just can't rule anything out in life 100% even with the likes of Scott Boras.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-legg-mason-miller-idUSKCN10M1DV/ This guy was the most famous stock pickers in the world, with the most credibility of anyone, even more than Warren Buffett even…he beat the S&P 500 Index a record 15 times in a row. Most of the Rick Hahns of the world could only accomplish this feat maybe once every decade…as 90% plus of actively managed funds don’t even beat their indices. But take a look at his track record from 2007-08-09 through today. He’s probably in the Bottom 5-10% overall during these past fifteen years.. Was he a success or failure? Were those who invested in him after that impeccable record of success idiots or merely unlucky? https://www.forbes.com/profile/stewart-horejsi/?sh=6db14a863aa3 Likewise, is this guy one of the smartest, luckiest or most credible to end up with $2.8 billion dollars from investing all his money with Berkshire Hathaway beginning in the 1980’s? Success and credibility are often times a product of sheer luck and being in the right place at the right time.

Who here has been right more than 50% of the time? Hahn was running around a 15-20% success rate in FA. Heck, any serious mutual fund’s proprietary trading system/algorithm could be taught to double or triple that success rate in a matter of weeks. Or ChatGPT…for that matter. Despite his education, Hahn was never smart about either evaluating players or what it takes to put together a winning team and/or organization. Either that, or he was completely inept at convincing JR to buy into his vision…which we still really don’t know what that vision was (collecting top-rated minor league talent and just throwing it together with veterans, utility guys and theoretically dominant pen?). ASB 2021-2023 teams were so lacking in an actual identity or defining characteristics other than “they simply beat themselves.”

Pretty telling you have three Central teams…White Sox spending frivolously, Twins and Tigers pushing chips in but pushing limits of what ownership is willing to spend and the the Guardians a profit machine due to a minuscule payroll and 2022 playoff/ticket sales…and finally the Royals turning a typical small market profit due to perennially low payrolls since 2016-17 and the current subsidy system. The fact that the White Sox didn’t get hurt by the RSN/Bally fiasco tells you everything you need to know…that there’s not even a pretense of attempting to compete anymore at this point when rivals are basically tapped out and subtracting in Minnesota and Cleveland (Bieber, Quantrill, new manager) and Tigers only ones actually intent on improving their team for 2024.

That was the most critical error, in retrospect…but especially at his age, to give that many years. Choosing hometown hero Musgrove and Darvish for extensions wasn’t that great either, or Cronenworth. Like Benintendi, reports his wrist wasn’t right the first 4 1/2 months of the season. Red Sox lost two stars and then basically doubled down on and cost Bloom his job…that was equally bad because he seems like the quintessential won’t age well guy, obviously he’s such a good hitter, albeit not a complete player unless combined with Moncada on the defensive side. If there’s one player outside their #9 minor league system (Padres) I’d take a shot to rebuild in value…it would definitely be Trent Grisham because of his GG defense or Cronenworth if they ate a big chunk of his salary…Gary Sanchez would be another to at least kick the tires on, he put up excellent power numbers in limited action, and that#’s what the Sox need a lot of. Finally Profar out of Colorado, same as Cronenworth, but would need a ton of money/subsidy back again. One of the worst in baseball after a strong 2022 overall. Imo, If they hadn’t made the Clevinger, Nola and Soto trades…this franchise would be 50% better off than their current financial predicament…having to cut back to roughly $200 million losing at least 20-25% of their newly-activated fanbase in the process.

Losing 700 innings from the pitching staff looks even worse. The complementary guys like Grisham, Nola, whoever they threw out at DH, Cronenworth were just not good enough...statistically they looked like an 85-88 win team all season long. But always lesser than the sum for all their individual parts, which was Preller's fault more than the numerous managers he's employed. Basically, they were just terrible in tight and close games...extras...the majority of the bullpen other than Hader was just bad enough to make them a sub 500 team until the very bitter end of the season. Kim and Tatis won GG's...it's just that Bogaerts and Machado weren't nearly as good as their 2022 levels and even Tatis offensively wasn't close to his 959 career average coming off all the downtime and injuries/corrective surgeries. He did at least pretty very he could stay on the field for a full season...not unlike Luis Robert.

So much for unprecedented financial flexibility....even Bryan Shaw was too pricey thanks to Benintendi and Moncada.

https://theathletic.com/5102002/2023/11/30/will-the-padres-trade-juan-soto-plus-how-to-hire-a-manager/?source=freedailyemail&campaign=601983

https://theathletic.com/5103372/2023/12/01/shohei-ohtani-brand-free-agent-business/?source=freedailyemail&campaign=601983

We saved the Braves a lot of money and avoided their having to make difficult roster calls on Shuster and Lopez...

Might as well bring back Shaw too. Most valuable pitcher the second half. He wasn't even making $1 million, right?

Wonder what the record is for a one year option being declined? $21 million has to be pretty darned close. Looks like Rodon turned down $22.5 million in the SF deal to take 6/$162 from the Yankees. From $3 million to $44 million to $162, not bad at all!!

You deal Banks, you're down to Crochet and Eder/Peralta/Shuster from the LH side. Most likely Shuster, with Eder starting in the minors at AA or AAA. Lambert would certainly be fine as a throw in....but he's also going to be one of the few more experienced vets, so no reason to trade him unless someone actually offers a player that you value more than him for the future (no, that bar isn't very high at all.)

A lot of teams are going to ask for an exclusive negotiating window to ink a long-term extension if they're going to trade for him for just the 2024 season. Not unlike the Sweaty Freddy Garcia situation in 2004-05...Friends and Family. "Only" $128 million left on Giancarlo Stanton's deal (including $10 million buyout for 2028), the White Sox could get $64 million from NY and invest half of it into scouting/coaching/talent evaluation/analytics. That would allow NYY to roster Cole, Soto (with a new extension), Judge and either Yamamoto or an outside shot at Ohtani.

Right, $11 million must have been a year or two ago...at any rate, it was the bargain basement deal of all-time for JR.

Just don't think JR feels the reward for gambling on a rebound from GIO is worth it. Too much water under the bridge. No idea about Flaherty, but he has been going downhill for what seems like 3 years now...didn't watch him pitch for the Orioles at all. If he comes in below $10 million on a one year deal, or Montas...but I don't see that happening with either how crazy this current market is. Let's not forget that JR didn't even want to take the risk of holding on to Tim Anderson in 2024 at what, $11ish million??? WIth that 2020-2022 track record and Amed Rosario the best FA on the market?

Either one of those guys on the White Sox in 2024 would be pretty shocking if they're actually trading Cease...it makes zero sense to spend that type of money and years (Giolito likely to get at least 3 at a minimum) that will be required. If you can find that next "bargain zone" of guys in that tranche of projects (like Derek Holland in past years) between $5-9 million, sure....go for it. You might sign three and get a positive net trade return back on just one of them, based on past odds of success with this flip strategy.

It ranges from 20-30% for most MLB teams now, depending on the market size/local RSN deal. Used to be much closer to 40-55% for the majority of teams as recently as the 80's and early 90s.

Kristian Robinson or Raul Mondesi, lol?

The White Sox would end up making money on that deal, lol...and there would be plenty champing at the bit if that was the offer, even for the worst team in baseball in what happens to be a fairly expensive city to live in.

Right. Just saying from watching him quite a bit I would never invest $200+ million into him. He has a sneaky propensity for looking better on paper than he does in reality...very very streaky, like the pitching equivalent of Carlos Lee. Not even sure he's got three good years left.

Someone could always go after Snell with a extremely high yearly salary but much shorter term deal...2, definitely no more than 3 or 2 plus a legit option possibility based on incentives met.

26 year old bat only...sounds familiar.

Let's not get rid of Sheets so quickly. He's the cat with nine lives now that Leury is gone. (Honestly think I'd rather watch Palka or Viciedo get those at-bats. Virtually anyone in the entire org but Lee until he hits at least .230-.240 at Charlotte.)

No Lee should be in the minors. I don't care what he hits ... I'm getting the veteran equivalent of Hedges Nola Maldonado and giving him 60% of the reps with the most important pitchers until Perez/Lee and eventually Quero prove themselves. We did do this ages ago with that Cuban catcher from the Nats but he didn't work out nearly as well as Narvaez...since I can't even remember his name anymore.