caulfield12

"The Padres left catcher Brandon Valenzuela unprotected from the Rule 5 Draft, meaning he can potentially be selected by any club but must remain on that team's big league roster for the season. It'll be interesting to see whether another team bites on a 23-year-old defense-first catcher who posted a .711 OPS between High-A Fort Wayne and Double-A San Antonio last season." AJ Casavell mlb.com

Angel Pagan from Twins to Reds' bullpen...Cincy shoring up middle relief

Yet the Brewers are considering a total rebuild with Woodruff and Burnes on the way out and Yelich having what is likely to be his last solid season after struggling in 2021-22 compared to recent heights...he was very good but not great in 2023. The massive power numbers are likely gone for good, though. Not to mention the loss of Counsell and some of his key staff...as well as Stearns to NYM.

Plus Votto coming off the books...

https://www.mlb.com/news/yoshinobu-yamamoto-potential-mlb-landing-spots-ranked All of these teams will come into play when Yamamoto eventually signs… Including Reds, Braves, AZ, Twins…that’s nearly 1/2 the teams in MLB.

6. Carson Spiers 5. Graham Ashcraft 4. Nick Lodolo 3. Nick Martinez 2. Someone like Gilbert Cease Montgomery Glasnow 1. Hunter Greene

The Padres have to be in on Cease simply due to his comparative affordability...their #9 MiLB system and losing Wacha Lugo Snell and now Martinez from their starting/long relief core. That just leaves Musgrove and Darvish. If you don't attempt to fill out the rotation and you deal Soto...you basically have to dump Bogaerts and/or Machado as well. Hard to imagine Preller doing that...he's too stubborn.

Practically every single team that lost their RSN carriage deals and corresponding revenues last season should be seriously considering Cease in the face of that daunting $500-600 million for Ohtani alone.

Well, they have to know the entire Braves' system already after the Bummer trade....just a matter of dialing down on their Top 3-5 guys that were never going to be part of that recent deal.

Burger's age (27) was considered a huge issue last season...but Busch just turned 26 in November.

They're not going to prioritize complementary pieces at this point...but he could/should have been a finishing piece in 2021-22.

https://pressboxonline.com/2023/05/30/pipeline-primer-orioles-prospect-connor-norby/ Like the fact that his strength is hitting fastballs to RCF. One of those guys who doesn't have a massive ceiling but seems pretty certain to be a 1.5-2.5 fWAR second baseman. Coming out of East Carolina...a bit of a chip on his shoulder compared to the Vaughn's and Beckham's and Madrigal's of the NCAA stratosphere. You can see it in his reaction to not getting promoted as quickly as some of the bigger names in the system.

Just get arms arms arms and anyone capable of playing CF SS/2B (preference for the arm and range needed at short) and of course we desperately need a legitimate starting catcher with abundant leadership qualities. (We'll have a much better idea about Quero's offense playing next season in Birmingham.) All of those up the middle players can eventually be moved to the four corners...solidifying the defense there as well.

And that's ultimately why Q went so high despite having that mid 4s ERA at the time of the trade...and differences in control as well. I remember looking up his FIP after every single May/June start that year.

That's because he was the best pitcher in baseball from late July 2005 until May of 2006 when he got hurt against Cincy fielding a ball on the infield. Other than the Byrd game, pretty sure he lost only one game during that entire stretch and was statistically dominant with the forkball/fastball combo. But many of the same things were said about Jose Quintana being a #2...totally different pitching styles, obviously. The major difference is that Jose had established a very consistent baseline from 2012-2016/17. Cease has/had the higher ceiling...of that there's no doubt. But there's always risk associated with that much slider usage...and the velo drop. Conversely some will believe Cease (and Kopech for that matter) simply need to be provided a change of scenery/coaching staff and much better defense behind them.

Why would you trade Gonzalez at 25-35 cents on the dollar? They had 10x more patience with Madrigal comparatively, and we actually have future positional needs at both SS and 2B.

So was Luzardo, against the Sox in 2020.

I guess bWAR is what BaseballReference uses…there are obviously significant differences between the two for pitchers.

Do you believe 2022 TLR was better?

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bradiky01.shtml You realize Kyle Bradish had an fWAR nearly double that of Dylan Cease, right? Jesus Luzardo was definitely the better performer compared to Cease in 2023. Game 1: Jesus Luzardo (10-9, 3.63 ERA) Game 2: Braxton Garrett (9-7, 3.66 ERA)

The Dodgers weren't going to start him over Kershaw this past year, despite Kershaw's postseason struggles. And they normally would have had Buehler and Urias starting as well, not to mention the injured Gonsolin and May (will give you Dylan Cease over Bobby Miller). Miami was without Alcantara, who's clearly their #1 despite a relatively down season for him statistically. I guess we'll just have to wait and see if the team that acquires Cease (and he puts up another 4-4.50 ERA season) is actually going to start him in Game 1 in the post-season...ASSUMING THEIR #1-2-3 guys are unavailable for various reasons, lol. The only time Cease has really performed as completely reliable and trustworthy TOR/ace starter was 2022.

Which playoff teams would have sent Cease out as their #1 starter in the postseason this year?

Those two have "big game" reputations during to past successes...Cease never even really earned his shot in 2020, so it's fair to say that Dylan is somewhere hovering around strong #2 in the average MLB rotation in terms of positioning, or even a weak #1 like with the White Sox. The Guardians really don't want to pay Bieber, so they're just as much interested in the savings as return. Glasnow is far too injury prone...and that's always going to be a risk with Dylan considering the previous TJ and reliance on the slider as well as 1.5 MPH velocity drop in 2023. If you have a great pitching coach, then there's much less hesitancy taking on Dylan. And you also need to have a strong bullpen to cover those 3-4 innings at the end of nearly every Cease start. That said, he's usually good for those 4+ to 6ish innings each start.

Cubs in on both Bieber and Glasnow...two pretty good comps for Cease value, albeit 10-15% lower in all likelihood in terms of 2024 projections. Blue Jays looking to move on from last two years of Bichette at SS for the right price, Padres looking to dump one very expensive Soto year and at least get down to $200 million from their 2023 record payroll.

Seem to be shooting for $120-129 million range...Cease/Jimenez and half of Moncada's remaining commitment at ASB would save another huge chunk of money.