caulfield12

Not sure what percentage of Sox fans are willing to give the benefit of the doubt to Hahn when the court of public opinion is already that Crochet and Hendriks were rushed back too quickly to the big leagues simply to cover up for current roster/depth issues.

should hire someone 34-42 from the next generation of more analytically driven drafting scouting evaluation/baseball ops

Three degrees from Northwestern Iowa UCLA lol. Not quite the Rick Hahn resume.

https://sports.yahoo.com/chris-sale-leaves-red-sox-start-with-shoulder-issue-scheduled-for-mri-040615897.html Chris Sale leaves game with shoulder issue, scheduled for MRI Looks like his shot at the HoF has been disappearing year after year after year right after winning that World Series title with Boston.

We can look at this another way. 2019=3.1 fWAR 2020=3.3 fWAR (9.0 pro rated over 162 games, played 59/60) 2021=7.2 fWAR 2022=0.0 fWAR 2023=1.2 / 36 games we can average this out and put him at 3.6 projected Looking at things most pessimistically 14.8 fWAR over 4.4 possible seasons of playing time =3.4 fWAR per season Optimistic viewpoint 3.1 plus 9.0 plus 7.2 plus 3.4=22.7 / 4=5.7 average adding in another year out for injury to wrist from motorcycle and PEDS 22.7/5=4.54 fWAR 3.4 plus 5.7 plus 4.54 Average of all three=4.55 fWAR 14.8 actual fWAR x $8 million per fWAR=$118.4 million of value created $10M signing bonus 21:$1M, 22:$5M, 23:$7M, 24:$11M, 25:$20M, 26:$20M, 27:$25M, 28:$25M, 29-36:$36M annually Age 24 $7 million Age 25 $11 million Age 26 $20 million (cheaper than Moncada 2024) Age 27 $20 million (cheaper than Moncada) Age 28 $25 million (equal to Moncada 2025 option) Age 29 $25 million (equal to 2025 Moncada option) Ages 30-31-32-33-34-35 $36 million x 6 years=$216 million $324 million remaining to pay/12 years $27 million per season average salary $118.4 million of value created for Padres already Needs $205.6 for break even 25.7 fWAR / 12 == 2.14 per season Full contract value returned at 4.55 fWAR would be repaid any time between age 27 and 29 seasons... before he even turns 30. Even if you stripped away 2019/20, it would still be paid off between ages 29-31. It's actually the Bogaerts and Machado deals that are much riskier.

He's the most valuable player on the roster. Abreu was an MVP level player for big chunks of nearly a decade. Robert is the only player on the current roster capable of being an MVP or getting Top 5 votes if he put a full season together.

The whole thing basically comes down to (with Bally/Sinclair) the fact that MLB wasn't willing to give up the most valuable streaming rights (which were never part of the original deals)....the carriers simply decided it wasn't profitable enough with all the cable cord cutting, so they simply decided upon a preemptive renegotiating tactic (not paying the most disadvantageous rights fees) that's proving to be highly non-successful, at least so far. As time goes by, MLB will start to consolidate and control almost all the rights in one place...giving that growing collection of teams under MLB.tv even more bargaining power in the end (not unlike insurance risk pools in reverse). For the next 2-3 years, some teams might come out behind, but it all will balance out in the end.

The problem is that all of these veterans added to the core...Kimbrel (misleading first half numbers compared to the prior 2-3 seasons with the Red Sox and Cubs), Keuchel, Grandal, Abreu (last contract extension), Lynn, Hendriks, AJ Pollock, relievers like Kelly and Graveman...all of them were already (well) past their peak. (You can even make the same case that 2023 Benintendi might still be "young," but not in baseball terms and his remaining upside or ceiling.) We lost Rodon AT his peak. Traded Madrigal. Are about to lose Giolito in his 20's as well...with Cease and Kopech not far behind. The young players and veterans simply never hit their strides together at the same time. Not even close to everything being synchronized roster-wise.

Without KW and Paddy, we wouldn't have had either Abreu or Luis Robert in the first place. Imagine the franchise without those two over the last decade...

https://www.startribune.com/diamond-sports-bally-sports-north-pay-full-value-minnesota-twins-judge-ruling-verdict-tv-rights/600279539/ Phil Miller, Star Tribune Fri, June 2, 2023 at 9:22 AM GMT+8·1 min read A federal bankruptcy judge has ordered Diamond Sports to pay the full value of its media contracts to the Arizona Diamondbacks, Cleveland Guardians, Minnesota Twins and Texas Rangers. Judge Christopher Lopez made the ruling on Thursday in Houston. Diamond Sports, which owns 19 networks under the Bally Sports banner, has been in Chapter 11 bankruptcy proceedings in the Southern District of Texas since it filed in March. Diamond said in a financial filing last fall it had debt of $8.67 billion. In April, the judge ruled Diamond to pay half of what the teams were owed in rights fees. ''I think the contract rate is the right answer here,'' said Lopez in using his decision after two marathon days of testimony. The decision is another chapter in what has been a contentious week in the strained relationship between MLB and Diamond Sports. On Tuesday, the last San Diego Padres game was aired on Bally Sports San Diego after Diamond Sports missed a rights payment fee and let the grace period expire. MLB took over production of Padres' telecasts, beginning with Wednesday's game at the Miami Marlins. https://news.yahoo.com/judge-rules-owner-bally-sports-012200320.html

6-4. Guardians would just be 2 1/2 games back versus 4 1/2. Huge swing game to start off the series on the road. Lewis just tied it with his second homer in a week. Trevor Stephan lit up this time. Guardians' pen nothing like 2022. Nice to have quality depth (for both teams), with the numerous injury issues they seem to be constantly dealing with in Correa, Buxton, Kepler, etc. Find myself cheering more for Minnesota to run away with it and force Reinsdorf to make some tough decisions of cutting out the core pieces of the rebuild in the next 10 months.

Since when has he been on the prospect radar? Just good minor league numbers? Good friend's comment on Hendriks: "I'm glad the guy's back...a FEW things are bigger than baseball. But what I don't like is the White Sux organization prostituting this story to cover their long and continued malfeasance."

Tatis is back up to almost .800 after today. He's still rusty as a hitter. Striking out way too much. Shoulder and wrist issues addressed by offseason surgeries, first time he listened to the team doctors and took their advice instead of putting those procedures off. Machado has been bad (for ONE month), but he was one of the five best players in baseball last year, and has been a consistent All-Star since 2020 (2019 was rough, adjusting to a new team and city with a non-contending team). Bogaerts as long as he can hit has value, but most of his fWAR value right now is coming from how good a fielder he is...which is top 5-10% in the big leagues. Eventually Bogaerts moves to 2B or 3B as he ages...but that's still a number of years away. Or DH/1B. Same with Machado.

There's another thing to consider with the White Sox/Padres parallels: For at least one more season, the White Sox are locked into huge contracts based on a predicted future payroll of $100-125 million in the next 2-3 years. You've still got Benintendi, Anderson (maybe), Robert, Moncada ($24 million), Kimbrel, etc., still taking up a huge percentage of the 2024 payroll. The Padres are running almost twice the payroll...Machado was nearly the MVP last year, Tatis has put up MVP numbers (when actually on the field, and now his shoulder is finally fixed and he's adjusted quite well to RF on the fly) and you also have Bogaerts, who has been one of the most consistent quiet producers in baseball the last half decade. Balta has debated this issue of signing superstars in FA (or extending young players) over and over again versus playing in the Tier B/C kiddie pool/kiddie seats set aside in the basement for Thanksgiving/Christmas. Unless or until they sign either Soto or Ohtani, they will be able to make the economics of this work because of Seidler. And meanwhile, the value of that franchise has been increasing year by year. https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/business/story/2023-05-28/padres-are-planning-a-20m-makeover-of-petco-parks-gallagher-square Developments like Ricketts around Wrigley generating additional revenues. One of the five best stadiums in baseball. Better weather. And Seidler is an outspoken advocate for the homeless and financing of homeless communities/tent cities...so actually MUCH more well-liked than Reinsdorf...so lots of community buy-in and enthusiasm.

JR would never give free payroll reign to the likes of Dombrowski...who only had to operate under constraints in Montreal and Florida.

As of yesterday, they were still the FG favorite for the WC. Despite having historical bad BA and RISP, they've been pretty competitive...and then 3 crushing blown saves by Hader, which is a bit out of character...but save percentages have been down by roughly 15% as pitchers continue to make adjustments, especially closers used to taking all the time they wanted to throw a pitch in high leverage. Of course 75% of the fanbase wants Preller and Melvin canned immediately. Mets in a very similar situation, in terms of payroll and fan/ownership expectations.

Tanner Bibee, btw, already has a 2.65 ERA...which is worlds better than anyone in the Sox current rotation...doing it as a rookie. Investing an entire draft class in pitching, for example. That's another unique approach that the White Sox have never considered. And actually they have 13 starting pitchers, because Eli "Captain" Morgan could go back from swing man in the pen to starting, where he's equally comfortable.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CLE/2023.shtml Guardians have already had to use 8 starters, with McKenzie still out since Opening Day (#9, and their best starter over Bieber now) and Xzavion Curry #10. That's what it means to have a future rotation. And they still have depth behind that in AA/AAA, including their top prospect being injured. Four rookies used so far just in their rotation. Bieber will be traded when he gets too expensive...and they will replenish their system yet again, just as they did in past years with Corey Kluber, Carrasco, Bauer, Clevinger, etc. https://www.mlb.com/prospects/guardians Still haven't used Gavin Williams and Daniel Espino (injured), so depth goes all the way down to at least 12 pitchers. That's how they can be more competitive than the White Sox with just ONE member of the starting lineup over an 800 OPS (Jose Ramirez, barely) and the rest ALL under a .700 OPS or the newly-named Benintendi Line.

They have a better far farm system despite a boatload of massive trades. Salas, 16 year old future top prospect at catcher already in A ball. They could also turn around and trade Soto and Hader and get a lot back at the deadline and doing a competing every other year thing like the Giants of a decade ago. They have a billionaire owner willing to spend who looks at the team as more a hobby and passion than purely a profit machine. And they just added 1.8 million potential subscribers through MLB.tv compared to their current base of just 1.1 million.

Guardians starting Twins series with everyone but Ramirez under 700 ops Batters - CLE AB R H RBI BB K AVG OPS KwanLF 1 0 0 0 0 0 .261 .688 Rosario, ASS 1 0 0 0 0 0 .232 .604 Ramírez, Jo3B 1 0 0 0 0 0 .276 .809 Gimenez2B 0 0 0 0 0 0 .242 .649 BellDH 0 0 0 0 0 0 .224 .680 Arias, G1B 0 0 0 0 0 0 .198 .683 BrennanRF 0 0 0 0 0 0 .231 .597 ZuninoC 0 0 0 0 0 0 .194 .641 StrawCF 0 0 0 0 0 0 .231 .608

Not sure that Ohtani doesn't have White Sox on quite limited no trade list.

Graveman has pretty solid value. Lynn, not so much. Remains to be seen how desperate any team would be to add a character issue player like Clevinger. Someone might believe Lopez will turn it around as a 6/7 inning guy or swingman... if he can go on a run for 6-8 weeks, Kelly can go to a genuine NL playoff contender, etc. Bummer almost has to get better just by sheer statistical probability. Lots of IFS IFS IFS at the moment. Middleton could potentially provide you a B prospect or two C's. Of course Gio and Anderson the names everyone most frequently mentioned. Would be interesting to know how open they are to moving Cease or Kopech as well.

The next Lance Johnson lol.

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/scouts-execs-weigh-mets-trade-133520923.html Starting pitching this deadline at a premium... as well as top closers, so White Sox could be in pretty decent shape since the majority of NL teams (especially) will remain in WC races. Sox have at least three starting pitchers that could all go, along with pretty much anyone in their bullpen not named Crochet Santos and Hendriks...unless Liam can make a dramatic turnaround stuff-wise in the next two months. Ohtani at the top of the market...obviously. A.Nola and J.Urias unlikely to be moved, two of the other top remaining UFA pitchers. Blake Snell could be dealt, along with Soto, if Padres drastically retool... as they will make only a fraction of this year's payments with Bally Sports reneging on $60 million per season media rights deal through the next decade.

Only 0.34 ops points to go. Better to make it Anderson to 700. Benintendi to 725.