Twins (48%)
Why it will be them: Because the AL Central is relatively weak – the Guardians are more good than great – and because the Twins made moves this winter to improve their defense, depth and rotation, which could be sneaky good if Pablo López (sweeper) and Joe Ryan (sweeper, splitter) use their new pitches to really take off.
Don’t forget, the Twins did spend 41 more days in first than Cleveland did last year, until they were torpedoed by bullpen and injury woes; no AL team had more injury days missed than Minnesota. Throw in promising reports on swing changes by Joey Gallo and Carlos Correa, the return of Kenta Maeda, and the elite relief of Jhoan Duran, and it’s not that hard to see this team going from 78-84 to October.
Why it won’t: Because they don’t have a true ace and Byron Buxton hasn’t played in 100 games since 2017.
https://www.mlb.com/news/losing-teams-from-2022-that-could-make-playoffs