ILMOU

QUOTE (LDF @ Feb 8, 2015 -> 10:01 AM) winning is the main point for any discussion. i have always stated, i would rather have a team made up of a player who can hit 20+ hrs, an avg of 290+ and strikeout about 70-90 time. that kind of team will win many more games that having that free swinging hitter who belts 30+ hrs. Yes indeed. These are the type of numbers I was pretty much trying to convey with the "professional AB" comment. It's OK to K like Abreu , though, imo, when the contact is as well-barreled as in Jose's case. I think he'll settle in to about 100-120K/year, which is fine for his level of damage. It will be VERY interesting to see how bats like Baez and Bryant for the Cubs adjust, or don't, to the excellent pitching environment. Their Milb K rates are what I would describe as "borderline", and there is a tipping point on K rates, past which a hitter is completely discombobulated, and the pitcher knows he doesn't need to throw strikes - it's a hitter's hell, and it's not uncommon. Javy seems to have swing issues that KB doesn't, so he's the worse bet, but Bryant may also experience a rude awakening - after, undoubtedly, hitting 10 bombs in his first couple of weeks. There have been very, very few players who became GREAT mlb'ers with a rate as high as Bryant's, and the current pitching environment is rather cruel. Tough call. Not the slam-dunk Cubbie fans are assuming, imo. Back to topic, is JS a Padre yet? I'm most interested to see what the # of years / $ / vesting options turn out to be. It MAY even effect Shark's ultimate decision/desire for FA/years demanded, as he sees what a high-mileage 33y.o. arm is, or isn't, worth.

QUOTE (Reddy @ Feb 8, 2015 -> 09:44 AM) I think this is a GREAT point. And a big reason that Oakland never won it all. Green? Sarcasm? I'm guessing. Regardless, the A's didn't have a single 800 OPS on their playoff roster. They were counting on the pitching to be perfect - and the playoffs are a crapshoot anyway. Had they held on against the Royals, who knows? QUOTE (LDF @ Feb 8, 2015 -> 09:51 AM) there is a caveat in your statement, which by the way is a excellent one. that part that is missing is, what will the owners want to have fans in the stands??? if the owner doesn't have the team, they will go for that hrs hitting, low avg high strikeout, b/c he wants fans in the park. in other words..... money..... I'm a firm believer than winning trumps style of play, from a fans' standpoint, but there will be rule tweaks coming soon, that are at least designed to raise scoring. May even see an NL DH.

A lot of good points being made on all sides, but if you don't think the evolution of hitters' approach is part of the high K/low-run-scoring environment, you're not paying attention. The high slugging of the steroid era changed hitting philosophies throughout organizations, and the hitters have not yet adjusted back to a more contact-oriented approach, but they will in order to survive. I think, also, it's become apparent to many that "professional AB" guys like Pence and Sandoval are better bets in October than clout-or-K type sluggers. And yes, pitching is as good and specialized as ever, but they're also ahead of the batters on the adjustment curve.

Guys, please lighten up on Douglas, thanks. Really don't want to lose the treasure trove of humor he can provide, thanks. Missing Marty, and he's the closest facsimile, thanks.

QUOTE (raBBit @ Feb 6, 2015 -> 03:28 PM) I have been very vocal with my doubt when it comes to Courtney Hawkins. I as well. There's plenty of us. Kid's got a LONG way to go to get to the Bigs.

Good. Very, very good.

Bummer that it didn't work out. Don't know if this was the intention all through the offseason, or if they gave him an ultimatum to drop weight and received a "still-fat-as-ever" report a few weeks ago. Thinking we could have used him, especially if he could be taught to play 1B, as LaRoche is 35 and Abreu has ankles. No bench pop at this point. No biggie, overall, though.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Feb 1, 2015 -> 03:54 PM) No more Basset hounds, either. And that saddens me. Saw him fitting the swingman role this year that Alexi Ogando did so well for Texas a few years ago. I'll still be rooting for the guy in Oakland. Still like the trade, depending. QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Feb 2, 2015 -> 06:43 PM) I think you got it. I'm so used to seeing brown Great Danes' seeing one black didn't even think it was a Great Dane. I also thought an actual danish type pastry was used more in the past on here like the Basset hound pics were used for Chris Bassitt . Mantis/ Montas should've registered but hey drugs. It was, but couldn't resist the Animal Kingdom theme for the hopeful future rotation. Saw the Montas/Mantis thing suggested somewhere else, not original Burner. Looking forward to headlines like "Montas Preys on Cubs".

Well, NOW I'm excited. Before too long: 1 2 3 4 5 OR Devastating.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Jan 31, 2015 -> 11:27 PM) Everyone knew hudson would have tjoee problems. It was discussed here at the time. Holmberg may still pitch but is nothing special. The whole trsde was worth when KW thought he was going to get Dunn from washington. Huh? Love you, pt, but nobody really knows anything. I mean, there has been NO shortage of definitive statements made about the inevitability of Sale's arm falling off, for instance. And I would think that the crazy number of TJSs recently would make many in your profession question some of the "conventional wisdom". Unless you believe ALL the blame goes to these year-round HS prospect showcases.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Jan 31, 2015 -> 12:14 PM) Hawkins is definitely a corner guy now. He's got plenty of arm for either, and his speed isn't elite but it's above average. Yeah, Courtney's D is the proverbial bridge I'll cross when I get to it - for me, it's all about him improving his contact and recognition skills, without a huge sacrifice of power.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jan 30, 2015 -> 11:36 PM) Tim Hudson is really one of the best pitchers of our era. He may not be a hall of famer, but he's going to get a lot of votes. At his best, he was a low to kid 90s guy with great sinking stuff and the ability to strike you out. He's lost some of that over the years but he's an incredible pitcher. If Tyler Danish has half the career Tim Hudson has had, we'll be ok. Jake Peavy? He has kind of a funky motion, but the dude had incredible stuff. That's what helped him. The pitcher that comes to mind when I think "something odd about him" is Paul Byrd with his antiquated wind-up towards the end of his career. I also seem to recall something about PEDs about him too. Tyler Danish isn't odd, and a 3/4 or sidearm delivery isn't odd, but they have their advantages and disadvantages. If that changeup turns to good (meaning good velocity differentiation, good downward movement, good control, and good command), he's going to be a starting pitcher. Agree with most of what you're saying here, but his super-quick delivery IS odd, and goes a long way to making him unusually good in runner holding among RHP (which dovetails nicely with a guy whose hit-allowed mix skews heavily toward singles), and nearly eliminates the bunt-for-a-hit. Also finishes very square to the batter, ala MB56. The Hudson comp is my everything-goes-right ceiling for his stuff. Like Huddy and 56, he will virtually always outpitch his FIP, and to cut it off before it starts, FIP shouldn't even be associated with TD's performance - it's right there on the first page of the FIP manual that the stat is unlikely to apply well to extreme GBers. There are, however, plenty of advanced data that can be viewed at places like MLB Farm and Stat Corner that will tell you how good the kid can be. I'll share a few breakdowns and comparisons with the top pitching prospects in the game: the Giolitos, Syndergaards, Glasnows and Grays of the world, when I get some time. My sentiments are much like McDaniels', BTW. I BELIEVE and also WANT to believe. In the article video, the pitch he K's the first guy with is flat filthy - likely the slider. He's the youngest guy in camp, and by a good margin - I'm not alone. And I should note that the "smallish frame" is a 2013 thing. He's 6', 205lb, built a lot like Roy Oswalt. Never was 6' 2" as was listed early and still is some places, but he's definitely added real muscle since the early reports. And I'm not too sure about McDaniels' "high-pitch-count" reference - perhaps he thought the org was pushing an 18y.o. a bit much? TD is among the most efficient of ANY pitching prospects, in terms of pitches per out or outs per pitch. QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Jan 31, 2015 -> 08:00 AM) Today, Law released his 10 that just missed the cut. Here is what he said about Francelis Montas: http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/...pectsJustMissed Francelis Montas, RHP, Chicago White Sox When I saw him in the Arizona Fall League, I thought for sure he'd make the list, but the list of factors working against him was too long. He has an 80 fastball, hitting 102 mph in instructs, but his command and secondary stuff aren't average yet, and he's already had two knee surgeries, possibly related to his girth. He might be a No. 1 starter, but there's a greater chance that he ends up a reliever, with all kinds of possibilities in between. Well, the slider is far from below-average, it's just the overall command issues at play. But I agree that he has more to overcome to reach his ceiling than the rest of our 2-6 ranked prospects

QUOTE (fathom @ Jan 31, 2015 -> 10:55 AM) I have been shocked at how low Anderson is showing up on these lists. I was expecting in the 35-40 range. I expected him around 50, but it's all subjective. He's a guy with the lithe body and natural athleticism (ala BJ Upton, Jorge Soler, Buxton, Maybin etc.) that many scouts fall in love with - envisioning 20+ HR power, 30+ SB and great range in the middle infield. OTOH he has major hurdles still with contact, approach and defensive fundamentals, any one of which could be daunting, but taken together, still makes him relatively high-risk, imo. The fact that he did improve so much last year in these areas gives me confidence that he can get there, but I'm thinking mid-70's might really be appropriate, and something 50 or better might be overly optimistic.

There are many ways to model events and probabilities, and PECOTA is regressing to the mean, excessively beyond belief. Does ANYone here, really believe, that the winner of the AL Central will have as few as 82 wins? Patently absurd. As far as I know, that's happened once in history, the '73 Mets. Didn't bother to look it up. I'm covering wagers, if anyone wants to bet the under on 82, hell, I'll even throw in the ties.

QUOTE (Joshua Strong @ Jan 30, 2015 -> 04:57 PM) I speak for all White b Sox fans when I say that I want Bell out of the FO. Nice guy, though. In the Reinsdorf Ring of Loyalty as Flavum so eloquently put it. Will be tough to move out, but moving him at least completely away from personnel would be nice.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jan 30, 2015 -> 04:44 PM) Stan, I think this is where these minor league rankings become a bit overrated. Guys who are very good prospects like Tyler Danish tend to fall by the wayside because of preconceived biases. At the same time, these scouts have also been around a long time and can see weaknesses in motions and deliveries and have reasons for their beliefs. When a guy is 20 years old and we are viewing him as a guy who certainly should be a good reliever at the MLB level, you have a good prospect. If he ultimately ends up as a reliever, that's OK. In the mean time, he will continue starting. If he can ultimately be a #3 starter at the MLB level, you have yourself a damn fine pitcher. Well, you're right, of course. But to summarize the overall intent of my previous post, opinions vary widely among experts, and I can guarantee you that the org. has huge belief in the kid's abilities - not letting any pre-conceived ceiling ideas cloud their thought. But I'll do it anyway: Tim Hudson stuff with near Buehrlesque runner-holding and D. That guy would be GOOD. What can I say, smitten with the kid's makeup, backstory, mind for pitching and talent.

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Jan 30, 2015 -> 09:26 AM) Keith Laws also is far from the only scout that thinks Danish is a reliever. Yes, of course. It breaks down like this: If you are a scout that originally thought a pitcher, any pitcher, is destined to be a reliever, you will hold that thought until the pitcher proves you wrong by becoming a 5 WAR SP in MLB. Can't be wishy-washy, gotta show conviction. It's just the way it is. Thinking 21 players were better than Trout or several hundred were better than Pujols will make a guy defensive. Scouts generally don't admit being wrong until proven absolutely, unequivocably wrong. Some of these guys are still waiting on the big breakout from Cameron Maybin. (slight hyperbole) Law's self-deprecating humor about Sale doesn't deserve praise - it's way damn late. Had he admitted in 2012 that he may have been all wrong, now THAT would be refreshing. Now, in this case, the evidence to this point shows no issues with Tyler becoming a starter. He's WAY ahead of the game in pitches/innings for his age at level, and has had no reported issues, and at the end of his season, was finishing his outings most strongly. Has at least 3 pitches. Excellent swing-and-miss rates, on multiple pitches, from a groundballer. But the armslot worries many, granted, some worry about the radar gun, and he has a few key levels to climb, so there are doubts, as with any prospect. He just won't get ANY of the benefit of the doubt, that the prospects these guys have loved all along get routinely, despite age/level/results that don't compare. There's a lot of old-school thought that a guy like Chris Sale can go a long way to dispel. Low(er) slot guys like Hudson, Peavy etc. have had incredible careers, recently, and Sale is well on his way. The White Sox didn't take TD at 44 thinking he'd be a reliever. Laumann didn't lobby for picking him in the 1st round, instead of Anderson, had they been worried that someone else would take Tyler earlier, because he thought he was a reliever. And also, again, Kodi Medeiros (a lefty Danish, more or less) went 12th in the draft to the Brewers. Do you think they draft him that high if they think he's destined to relieve? Do you think that when they undoubtedly asked the Brewers' versions of Herm Schneider/Coop about drafting him, they told Melvin he was nuts, but he drafted him anyway? Doubt it. Schools of thought change over time. Anecdotal evidence exists that this is such a case, starting with the Condor.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jan 30, 2015 -> 08:58 AM) The last time Keith Law thought a Sox pitcher was going to be a reliever, Chris Sale became one of the best pitchers in the league. Can't wait for Danish to do the same And he likely thinks CJ Edwards is a TOR starter (haven't checked), while being held to 50 pitch counts as a 22 year old, meanwhile Tyler's throwing 90 pitches at 19y.o. with no issues. And still with the armslot thing - hope not too many of us are actually paying for Mr. Law's wisdom. And not super-informed on Hawkins, either.

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Jan 29, 2015 -> 02:06 PM) He isn't wrong, he is telling you to stop telling everyone else is wrong because HEY PECOTA SAID SO. And on top of that he is giving specific recent examples of how the projections aren't to be bought into wholesale. I get it, you don't believe the Sox have what it takes. But don't point to projections and say "see? I'm right!" As if they are facts Thank you, K. Said it better than I could have. You as well, DA.

QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Jan 29, 2015 -> 11:41 AM) Really? The Marlins have a pretty good team. I think they'll contend for a Wild Card spot. I wouldn't count on Morse being available. Yeah, I'm counting on history, and thinking they'll miss Eovaldi. Admittedly, they may be good, but it could go either way. Should have grabbed Morse.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 29, 2015 -> 10:33 AM) That's why I said 2017. If we don't win this year, 2016 looks like a "retooling" year because you get several contracts off the books at the end of the year and you start working extremely raw rookies into the lineup. I think you got up on the wrong side of the bed. Plenty of possibilities among the prospects for adding to the 2016 mix, though I agree Anderson is too raw to likely be among them. Still, there are several who may.

QUOTE (Reddy @ Jan 29, 2015 -> 10:26 AM) Rodon was walking 6 guys per 9 innings at AAA to end the season. Striking out 14, yes, but that sounds a lot like Daniel Cabrera. I'm excited about Rodon, I really am, but to expect everyone we draft to be Chris Sale is... you know... 3rd pick in the draft, #1 in the eyes of many. Mature college arm. Yes, I'm expecting a lot.

Given that we're now bidding adieu to Tank, Michael Morse would have been the perfect final piece. Can platoon with ALaR, spell Jose's ankles, help out in the OF, etc. Adding both versatility and quality to the club for $6M. Fortunately, he's a Marlin, and will likely be available again by mid-season.

QUOTE (Reddy @ Jan 29, 2015 -> 10:21 AM) 100 innings out of Rodon aren't guaranteed to be better than Danks and Noesi either... Not guaranteed, what is?, but also likely, imo.

Guys, we're likely, imo, to get at least 100 big league innings from Rodon this season. That's 1/4 of the Danks/Noesi load eliminated. Hahn will act quickly if they both suck early and often.