Kenny Hates Prospects

QUOTE (WCSox @ Sep 4, 2009 -> 04:38 PM) IIRC, the Sox are contractually locked into paying $67 million next year, which doesn't include the arbitration players. I don't know what their payroll limit will be next year but, given that they shed payroll last season to get under $100 million and the still-bad economy, I have a tough time seeing them going over $95 million. Even $90 million might be stretching it. If CQ and Danks cost $10 million combined, they're not going to have much left over to round out their roster. And there are going to be a lot of attrition-generated holes to fill. I agree that there's a good chance that Jenks is dealt, as he'll most likely command about $7 million next year. But the problem with this is that Thornton is the only other reliable pitcher in the bullpen and, after dealing both Poreda and Richard, we have zero in-house options. So not only will the Sox need to add middle relievers, but they'll need to spend on another closer to replace Jenks (I don't think that Thornton will be a closer). Proven veteran closers aren't cheap and, contrary to what some people believe, it's difficult to go cheap at this position when you have squat in your farm system. It almost seems like it's better to over-pay Jenks for one more year, and maybe cut Paulie. It seems like a real waste to have a bad-ass rotation and a bullpen that will lose games for them. But if you cut Paulie, you're relying on Quentin to stay healthy for a full season and you're relying very heavily on Beckham and Rios to carry the offense. Either way, you're in trouble and you're basically wasting an opportunity to run for very-good-to-dominant starting pitchers out there. So who knows... maybe Kenny will exceed $100 million for one more year, and risk going into the red. Good post. I don't think CQ and Danks get that much combined as first year arb players though. You could be right because Jenks got more than $5M last year as a first-year arb player. I hope at the very least that the Sox get some cost certainty with the two of them via extensions this offseason. We REALLY do need another lefty. Our closest in-house option is Charlie Leesman and although he's having a decent year, he's not really a MLB reliever type nor should he become a fast mover. Failing to sign Morgado really hurt after the Poreda and Richard deal. And I wish, if it was possible, that we could have kept one of those guys while offering a righty that may have even been a better prospect. We won't cut Paulie because we're obligated to pay his contract. At worst, I think the Braves will take him if we eat some salary. Maybe we can get our lefty there. We'd need a 1B though and Dayan isn't ready. As for replacing Bobby Jenks, we do have Nathan Jones who could be a replacement and because of his arm he could really climb the ladder quickly. It's even conceivable to me that he could make the club out of ST like Logan did in 2006. Beyond that, we could hold a competition between Santeliz, Omogrosso, Nunez, Harrell, Link, and DRod (if we still have him) for another relief spot and hope we come up with a setup man. We have guys with the talent to do very well, but of course any time you rely on prospects you have to plan for failure, and because of that it would make sense to at least bring in a cheap veteran. The bullpen will be tough to fix no matter what, but dealing Jenks makes it even tougher. I do not like the idea of trading for another Tony Pena or signing a reliever to another big-money contract because the chances aren't very good we'll get fair dollar-for-dollar production out of it for the length of the deal. But I also don't like the idea of relying exclusively on prospects and reclamation projects either. If given the choice, I'd probably go with the prospects and reclamation projects because at least if you go that route you can cut or trade unproductive pieces, whereas another Linebrink-type contact or Tony Pena deal could really bog this team down, and for more than just one year.

Oh, I did not know that. I like your approach though. You're going there armed with information and a plan, which I guess is better than showing up with a few good blades and a head full of stereotypes.

QUOTE (bmags @ Sep 4, 2009 -> 04:30 PM) No I'm really, really black. Oh okay then. Then as long as you know Portugese and you dress like a homeless soccer fan, and as long as you know how to defend yourself against a knife attack, then this should all work out for you just fine. Being white would have killed your chances. Good luck.

I don't have anything against Chris Getz. For a team whose baseball IQ and will to win is constantly questioned, I find it odd that anyone would complain about Getzy. Would I like a better player? Sure. But I don't think we have one, so Getz it is. And furthermore, I have to say that I LOVE this lineup against Byrd. Byrd's junk always seems to catch our fence-swinging sluggers off guard, so this time let's try to put the bat on the baseball and force the issue instead. BTW I heard through the grapevine that Sweaty Freddy hasn't drained his balls in weeks, so expect them to drag on the mound tonight.

QUOTE (bmags @ Sep 4, 2009 -> 04:19 PM) There's no real reason. I have some money. I have no desire to get a job in journalism. I'm thinking about grad school. It all pointed to going to Brazil. Please don't say you're White.

QUOTE (JPN366 @ Sep 4, 2009 -> 12:06 AM) Top 5 postseason maybe? I'm thinking about it. If we're going to be removing players called up from consideration (Flowers and Hudson mainly) then CJ can definitely fit IMO. If not, right now I'd probably go: 1. Flowers 2. Viciedo 3. Hudson 4. Danks 5. Mitchell I'd probably have CJ 6th in the top-10 with Jones, Phegley, Shirek, maybe Morel.

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Sep 4, 2009 -> 05:09 AM) You missed the point. I wasn't even trying to hate on Allen. Point was don't post some random HR as (AHA! See! Brandon Allen really is god!) and ignore the negatives. When did I say Brandon Allen was god? BTW I wholeheartedly agree. Next time I post a link to a highlight, I'll be sure to add a disclaimer where I run the player down and pick at everything he is struggling with. That way whoever watches the video will be so down on the player by the time it starts that the highlight won't even matter as the viewer will have already come up with reasons for the highlight being nothing more than an aberration completely independent of said player's skill level. This should be mandatory for all highlight videos. And in Brandon Allen's case specifically, we members of the *Official* SoxTalk ™ Brandon Allen Hate Club should petition MLB.com to include multiple strikeout scenes prior to any and every Brandon Allen highlight film, along with a warning that says quite plainly, "Brandon Allen sucks! Please close browser NOW!" That way no one could be so confused as to ignore the negatives.

QUOTE (WCSox @ Sep 4, 2009 -> 11:34 AM) I'd love for all of this to happen, but it's going to cost close to $25 million. And that's in addition to the $15 million or so that we'll be shelling out in arbitration to Quentin, Danks, and Jenks. Kenny needs to make the bullpen a priority. If there's any financial flexibility left over, a left-handed power hitter would be priority #2. Realistically, I don't think that they'll be able to afford any more big-contract impact players (like Figgins). The arb amounts due to CQ and Danks are hard to figure because they depend on so many things, but I could see extensions for both that would negate the arb process. Danks is probably glad he didn't sign the deal offered to him, but CQ could be a different story. And I wouldn't be shocked to see Bobby Jenks traded either, in fact I'd probably be more shocked to see Paulie traded than Jenks. We have to see what the Sox are planning on doing and where they'll be at financially. If they had been figuring on bringing Dye back when they added Rios and Peavy, but have since decided to let him go, then that should be another $12M or so available. Another factor is where we finish. If we finish with one of the 15 worst records then we almost HAVE to sign a Type A free agent to take advantage of that, because then we'd be getting a top player for a 2nd round pick only.

I'm very glad Alex Rios has been having a terrible year offensively, because if he was doing great then we never would have acquired him in the first place.

QUOTE (Melissa1334 @ Sep 3, 2009 -> 08:15 PM) ill take freddy at 1mil as a 5th starter (now that hes healthy)that actually has guts and isnt afraid of the big games over vazquez at 12mil thats afraid of the big game. just my opinion I like your opinion. Javy is what he is. If you could combine the two pitchers you'd have like the greatest pitcher ever. Javy would shut down the Royals and all the other teams that don't matter and pad the s*** out of his stats, and then Freddy would drop his sac in big games and get it done. Just watching the two pitch it's crazy how opposite they are. Javy will get the speedy #9 hitter 0-2 and then walk him while being cute trying to strike him out. Javy will unintentionally load the bases, and before long he can't get himself out of trouble without clearing the bases and starting over. And this will be in the middle of a brilliant effort where he's got like 8 K's and 1 BB through 6 IP. But Freddy OTOH will just flat out pitch around tough hitters, wanting nothing to do with them at all, and he'll go around two guys in a row if he has to, putting himself in danger on purpose and not giving a f*** about it, and then he'll get the guy he wants and retire him. The fans are all having heart attacks but Sweaty Freddy just stands there like it's no big deal. And if it's a big game and you spot Freddy 6 runs then he might give up 5, but if you spot him 1 then he's not giving up s***. I love that guy.

Offseason needs IMO, in no particular order: 1. Pick up a lead-off hitter if we can find something that makes sense (if Figgins wants 4+ years then no Figgins) 2. Get a big lefty bat in the middle of the lineup 3. Shore up the OF defense by adding an above-average defensive RF, or else add a CF with Rios shifting to RF 4. Pick up a right-handed setup man to replace Dotel 5. Find a second lefty reliever with good enough stuff to pitch in the Majors

CJ: 3 hits, including his 44th double, bringing his average up to .301 And on the season CJ is molesting lefties, hitting .354/.386/.543 If there is a list of the most under-the-radar prospects nationally, who practically no one pays attention to but who WILL play in the Majors, CJ has got to be on it.

Agree. That's a nice number for a pitcher too. Also happy to see Jhonny Nunez back. I like that guy.

Morel with a pair of hits including a 2B. Nathan Jones gets the win, and I'm wondering why he hadn't gotten promoted to AA. He started in Kanny, but if his control keeps improving as it has been then he'll be ready soon. Watch for this guy in ST because he's definitely getting an invite.

QUOTE (JPN366 @ Sep 3, 2009 -> 08:52 PM) See the paragraph on Stefan...JPNese 8/17 This is why your blogs are awesome.

QUOTE (SoxFanForever @ Sep 3, 2009 -> 09:40 AM) I think the tales of the red ranger being in those movies was refuted a while back. *fighting back tears* He's still guilty to me, damn it!

Hudson wearing #54

http://chicago.whitesox.mlb.com/news/press...sp&c_id=cws

QUOTE (Soxbadger @ Sep 3, 2009 -> 05:20 PM) Konerko had much better OBP than Allen in the minors. Outside of the .413 put up in Reno, Allen's top obp was .372 Paulie had obp of .397 in AA, .407 in AAA. In AA he had 72 bbs to 85 ks. In AAA he had 64 bbs to 61 ks. Allens numbers have improved but there are some troubling stats about his eye. 06, 07 he had 22 bbs to 126ks and 39 bbs to 124ks. Last season between A and AA he had 60bbs to 124ks. This year he had 50bbs to 80ks (between AA and AAA). At Charlotte he had 0bb and 13k, so not sure how that shows a great eye. Outside of this year, he has about the same amount of ks as games played, meaning that in the minors he has averaged about 1k per game. (607 games, 588ks and 219bbs) In comparison, Konerko in 519 games had 319ks and 268 bbs. Unless you have some reason why Allen is going to drastically improve, it would be a complete statistical aberration for Allen to put up similar bb and k numbers as Konerko, as Allen never has produced even close to similar numbers. All Allen has done the last 3 years is dramatically improve. Paulie was a lot closer to a finished product when the Dodgers drafted him, while Allen was very raw. That's why Paulie was drafted 13th overall in 1994 and the Sox got Allen 149th overall in 2004. Paulie made his MLB debut at 21 and it could be argued that Paulie was capable of becoming a regular at 22 instead of spending more time in the minors. Just because Allen started off raw whereas Paulie was a polished hitter doesn't mean that Allen can't end up where Paulie has gotten. And I don't get why Allen's earlier minor league numbers are important at all. It doesn't matter how you start the race, what matters is how you finish and the player you become. The minor leagues are about learning and development, not statistics. The stats only tell you where a guy is in relation to the quality of his competition, and all Allen has done is adjust to each new level and then advance.

I'll be shocked if he's not with the Padres, Rays, or A's by next ST. The Padres need whatever help they can get and both the Rays and A's organizations love guys that come from down below like Wassermann does. The Pirates and Nats could be great fits too. I'm actually really surprised Wassermann is still here. I figured someone would want him by now, and I still feel like he has a shot at a career as a righty specialist. The problem is you CAN'T pitch him against lefties, which during Wassermann's tenure here has been something Ozzie has just had to do, over and over again.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Sep 3, 2009 -> 04:37 PM) He was awful in Charlotte. You mean Reno. No, I meant Charlotte. His K rate was waaaay above his norms over the last two seasons during his stint with the Knights, but after the trade Allen's numbers adjusted and his K rate went back to where it had been before. I was using Charlotte as an example to show that his K rate in the Majors can't be expected to be as bad in the future as it has been thus far. It's going to take Allen some time to get used to MLB pitching, but he's a fast learner and once he learns something he's able to hold on to that and progress forward. He'll have his struggles in the Majors, and he'll have his prolonged slumps like just about anyone, but long-term I think he can become about a 60-70 BB, 100-110 K per year type of hitter, kind of like Paulie is.

I think the best option is holding onto Linebrink for now. The last three seasons including this one, Linebrink has had a very nice first half and then struggled in the second half. If he does the same next year, then TRADE HIM instead of holding on to him. But if we can make a bad contract swap over the offseason then I think we should target a lesser contract, not a more expensive one. Try to get a guy owed less than $10.5M through 2011. The only way I'd do a Pierre swap would be if Pierre was our 4th OF and the Dodgers at enough salary to equal everything out. But I'd still be against that, because I think chances are good that Linebrink has a good 1st half in 2010 and we'll be able to move him at the deadline to a big money contender if we eat about $1.5M off his 2011 salary, which would make his 2011 contract a much more reasonable $4M.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Sep 3, 2009 -> 01:23 AM) Love the optimism, Kenny, but don't understand it. Nice win today, but we just went 2-8 after a 3-3 homestand against two pathetic teams. We truly need to win about 10 in a row starting now to have any chance and we're not going to do that. Ah, I see now. I was wondering why I had a turd in my Wheaties this morning... Don't stop belieeeeeeevin'!

QUOTE (greg775 @ Sep 3, 2009 -> 01:15 PM) Trade him to Washington for scraps. They probably like trading with us since MacDisaster sucked with the Sox but did well for them this year. They never traded for him. The Sox released him and ate his contract, then the Nats picked him up at the prorated minimum.

If he has a great first half next year then maybe we'll be able to dump his contract. But of course if he has a great first half then Kenny isn't trading him anyway. We'll probably have Linebrink until at least midseason 2011.