Kenny Hates Prospects

QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Aug 27, 2009 -> 04:27 PM) Why do we keep going along with this myth that Coop fixes guys that are flawed? How many guys have gone through our pitching staff that he couldn't turn around? MacDougal Aardsma Riske Koch Vazquez Linebrink Vizcaino Rausch Pena There's probably more I can't think of right now. Vizcaino was a huge key to that '05 title and will never get credit for it because of crap like this. If he doesn't work the innings he did with solid results like he did then that bullpen gets exposed. Cotts, Politte, Hermanson, etc. weren't world-beaters, they just had great years and Vizcaino's presence was a big reason for that. I have no idea why you would have included him on this list. Coop *did* make changes with Javy, though they were slight mechanical ones which led to his 2007 season. Unfortunately Coop is unlicensed to perform lobotomies. MacDougal can not repeat his delivery. Nothing anyone can do would change that. You can't just change someone's arm slot after he's been using it his whole life. I could go on, but it's pointless. Lots of these guys that Coop was supposed to "fix" had injury issues or unrepeatable deliveries or were mental midgets. You can't do anything with that. Expecting Coop to turn Andy Sisco into Matt Thornton would be like expecting Greg Walker to turn DeWayne Wise into Grady Sizemore.

QUOTE (ChiSox_Sonix @ Aug 25, 2009 -> 12:43 PM) You don't need to bump your own thread just b/c no one has responded in the 45 minutes since you posted it. Yes I do.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Aug 25, 2009 -> 12:30 PM) Man, I just don't know if that's the case. My memory is slipping, but haven't we basically been the same team all year? Weren't we even in first for a while? We've never been too far over .500 and never way below. A healthy Freddy? I don't think he's got much in the tank personally healthy or unhealthy. As far as changes in our lineup, Pods will be gone. Does anybody really believe Thome/Dye/Konerko will be back? I'd say one of the three maybe, probably Dye. This team has cycled through tons of players. Kenny has made several demotions and promotions, made several trades, claimed Rios on waivers, we've signed guys mid-season, I mean we've done everything. Between where we are now and where we were on opening day, we have a new CF, a new LF/CF (Pods), 2 new SP, new guys in the bullpen, and a whole new bench. I've discussed Freddy before so I'm not going to get back into that. But he has the same stuff now that he had for us in 2006, except he struggled to control it in his first start back after regaining velocity. He never lost anything except fastball velocity and is 34. I have no idea how people can compare Freddy, who is on this way back and continually making progress, with Contreras, who is at the end of the line and can barely stay consistently good for back-to-back innings, much less starts.

TTT

QUOTE (almagest @ Aug 25, 2009 -> 12:09 PM) I don't see how you can assume we should have gotten more for Allen than Pena, since Arizona had absolutely no production from the first-base position this year. It's not like they dealt from a position of strength. I also think you undervalue Tony Pena, as he's been a good reliever since 2007, makes league minimum, and is under our control for a couple years. He's also a likely replacement for the 5.5 million dollar Octavio Dotel. You also seem to overvalue Arizona's talent evaluation, while undervaluing ours. We weren't wrong on Chris Young, it seems, and I doubt Arizona would trade Quentin again, even with his injury this year. Allen seems to have improved his strikeout/walk ratio, which is a good sign, but I still find it hard to get excited about a first baseman who had a full-season OPS over .900 once in his 6 year minor league career. We should have gotten more for Allen than Pena because Allen's ceiling is a lot higher than Pena's and Allen is ready now. Pena is a decent reliever who has been an underachiever and has a chance to be a very nice setup man. Speaking of dealing from a position of strength, unless we want to permanently move Flowers or Viciedo, by dealing Allen we dealt from a position of weakness. OTOH, the strongest part of the upper portion of our farm is the amount of quality right-handed relief prospects. Your comment about AZ not dealing from a position of strength doesn't make sense. They dealt a reliever who had basically been a righty specialist during a horrible season to fill a glaring need. If Pena can replace what Dotel has done, well, that will be a huge addition. Not many relievers out there can put up the kinds of numbers Dotel has put up here, and not many of those guys can come in and get huge strikeouts with RISP. I would definitely not bet on Pena being as good as Dotel has been, although he could end up as our primary righty setup man. No, I'm not overvaluing or undervaluing anyone's view on anybody. AZ reportedly loves him and he was a target of theirs. KW OTOH had a hard-on for Tony Pena and had been rumored to be after him before. Just because Kenny traded Allen for Pena doesn't mean people in Kenny's ear weren't telling him not to make that deal. Kenny happened to think Allen was expendable enough, and he wanted Pena bad enough, and so he made that deal. It doesn't sound at all like Kenny really shopped Allen, and if he did, I think he could have gotten more. As for the Chris Young and CQ deals, Chris Young was a guy a lot of teams would have loved to acquire. Teams love high-level defensive CFers with 30-30 potential who handle large jumps like that from low-A to AA with great success. It's not like Kenny "fooled" anyone by trading Chris Young. Kenny and all his people know the odds of a prospect panning out, and some are better than others, and some are worth trading when you're coming off a WS Championship. It's not like we had some major scouting advantage there. And CQ only became available because of the bogus Eric Byrnes extension combined with CQ's injury history and the emergence of Chris Young and Justin Upton. It's not like Kenny saw something great in CQ that nobody else saw. Everyone knew the type of player Quentin was capable of becoming. The reason we got CQ in the first place was because the DBacks were talking with the A's about Haren and Beane wanted Chris Carter. It's not like we were the only team in on him. The Indians offered Cliff Lee straight up and the DBacks passed. When those deals were made, each team took a chance talented players and so far it has worked out better for the Sox.

If the Twins are in, then the Sox are in, and if the Sox are in, then I'm in too. Jose is gone and will be replaced by Peavy for the rest of the season, and if Freddy can find his command then we've got our 5th starter. If we had started the season with Peavy and a healthy Freddy instead of Contreras and Colon, and Beckham instead of Fields, and Rios instead of Wise/BA then we would be 8+ games ahead right now and trying to decide who we should match up with CC in Game 1 of the playoffs. We've got the ability to make a run and we just need our pitching to stabilize and our offense to realize it is f***ing August, not April. I think if we can do that we'll immediately improve in terms of defense and fundamentals by improving the overall attitude and focus of the team.

The DSL is the place where cool-sounding baseball player names go to die.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Aug 25, 2009 -> 11:40 AM) Great post, and pretty much captures my thoughts as well. Thank you. Here's a new thread I made: http://www.soxtalk.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=74096

I don't know if this has been posted or not, but I didn't know this. He used to be known as Adriano Rosario. http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=1803614

QUOTE (almagest @ Aug 24, 2009 -> 02:12 PM) That's understandable. I just think we're severely overvaluing Allen. He wouldn't be with the D-Backs right now if they had a first baseman who could hit over .200, and his high strikeout rate is going to kill him at this level unless he can make adjustments really quickly. Also, we have Konerko for another season IIRC, and one of Viciedo/Fields/Flowers/Phegley is probably going to replace him after that. Although none of them are 1B prospects at this point, I don't think we'll be hurting for depth at that position. When that trade was made there were reports of AZ scouts absolutely loving this guy. I forget who it was, but FutureSox had an interview with I think one of the BA guys and something similar was said where Allen is a guy some scouts love and see as an above-average starting MLB first baseman, others see him as a AAAA player, and yet others see him as a MLB bench or platoon player. The AZ people have seen this guy since we've had him because, with the exception of this year's ST, we've shared complexes with the Diamondbacks as long as Allen has been in our system. The strikeout rate statement lacks knowledge of his numbers. He has cut down on his K's drastically from where it was prior to the last two seasons while increasing levels and facing tougher competition. Obviously his numbers will look bad for periods while he adjusts, and obviously the PCL had inflated his AAA AZ numbers, but the numbers with AZ are a lot more indicative of his ability than his stint in Charlotte was. The improved K rate was one of the main reasons he shot up our charts as a prospect, and if you think Allen's K numbers the last two seasons are high, just check out the numbers for pretty much every other legit power hitting prospect in the game. Most all of them are going to be at least as high, probably a lot higher. It is pretty rare to find a guy who makes better contact than Allen has these last couple seasons and still hits for power. Thirdly, the main reason I loved him as a prospect is *because* of his ability to make adjustments at the plate. It is that plus the lowered K rate, plus the age, plus the improvement he's made over the last two seasons, plus the increased walk rate as he's improved, plus the athletic ability and the improvement he's made at 1B that makes him more than your average 1B prospect. Allen hasn't gotten the attention nationally, and if you look at top-100 prospect lists from long ago, it is very common to see guys in the 80's and 90's that ended up being far better players than other guys much higher on the lists. Just because a guy doesn't get lauded in the big publications doesn't mean he isn't as good or better than some of those guys that are. Allen IMO is a much better prospect than Poreda and yet we heard lots of national prospect evaluators glowing over him with very little about Allen. Casey Rogowski probably got more pub coming up the ranks than Allen got the last two years. Allen might be considered a "late bloomer" as a prospect because he had to repeat levels, but even considering him that would be inaccurate as he signed out of high school and at the age of 23 has become Arizona's starting 1B. So I don't think anyone is overrating or overvaluing Allen because no one is making outlandish statements like he's going to win batting titles, or have top-5 finishes in MVP races, or be a perennial All-Star, etc. It's just that he's a very nice prospect and some people, including myself, feel he was worth more than Tony Pena. I would have had no problem dealing him provided we got a better return - and I'm not talking Pujols or anything, I'm talking about a better-than-average starter or position player whom we would be able to control for the next couple of seasons.

QUOTE (joeynach @ Aug 24, 2009 -> 10:54 PM) Its probably a middle step to him being released Hopefully.

http://twitter.com/Cst_Sox

Cowley said Jose was going to the bullpen on the Score unless he has changed his story.

This doesn't make sense. It take Contreras a while to warm up and he's not consistent enough as a strike-thrower. Count should be in Charlotte as extra insurance in case the team plane crashes and everybody dies and we need pitching. Either that or release the guy.

paraphrasing "Well _____ needs to get the bat head up..." "Ozzie and Joey have three fields in Glendale devoted to fundamentals..." "You need to keep your butt/fanny down..." "We were just working on this before the game today..."

Brandon Allen's first career Major League hit in his first Major League game Through 8 AB he has 2 hits, both singles, 1 RBI, a walk and 3 K's. .250/.333/.250 to start the Brandon Allen watch.

QUOTE (jenks45monster @ Aug 23, 2009 -> 11:53 PM) Not to mention he could have been a starting 1B/corner OF/DH for us next year. Young, athletic, position player >>>>>>> crappy 'pen arm. Even if Pena helps solidify the back of our bullpen for the next 3-4 years, he's still going to be expensive through arb, and he still isn't worth the type of player Brandon Allen could become. Yes, the keyword is "could" and there's no guarantee Allen will do anything, but I'd much rather have given up prospects more similar to Pena. Would the DBacks have really laughed at us for offering 2 of Jones/Mabee/Omogrosso/Harrell/Nunez/Santeliz/Link/DRod/Russell when we had him? Did Pena REALLY have that kind of value? I just don't like the idea of trading a position prospect with star potential for a player who isn't already a star position player or a #3 or better SP. The reason is, solid setup men and middle relievers are still mostly volatile, and they're always the quickest to be demoted and/or released, and the really good ones are almost always overpaid, but despite being overpaid, they're *never* paid as much as above-average position players are on the free agent market, and also, they're *never* worth an above-average position player straight-up through trade unless the salary situation is lopsided. Maybe Kenny sees Pena as our future closer after Jenks. I would hope not, but I think that would better justify the trade. And BTW I still hope Brandon Allen becomes a star and that Pena becomes a great player for us who helps us win another title, so I'm not rooting for anyone involved to fail.

Dan Hudson should be a better bet to stick in the Majors than BMac. Hudson may not have the secondary stuff that McCarthy did, but he has a better fastball and a much safer-looking delivery, and those factors should outweigh what he'd lack in terms of offspeed stuff by comparison. Not saying Hudson doesn't have good secondary stuff, I haven't seen him and I haven't read anything bad about it, but I can't imagine him having a changeup and curveball like BMac did when he came up with us. When he could throw those pitches for strikes he was lights the f*** out. Both pitchers however seemed to be of the bulldog mentality where they go out there focused and confident and attack hitters. Maybe Dan Hudson isn't going to be a top-end starter for us and I don't think any of us should put those kinds of expectations on him, but he sure looks like he could be the type of guy who could go out there in a big game and let his balls dangle for 7 high-pressure innings. If he could be a #3-4 for us out of the #5 slot we'd be f***ing sick.

I'm excited because the Sox seem to be a team likes to play to the level of their competition. But whatever happens this year I love the new core. Kenny has done a fantastic job overall transitioning this team from the 2006 squad to the 2010 and beyond squad, and who knows? Maybe we'll get two division winners out of it, and even though the 2007 season was abysmal, it still brought us Beckham. Thank God.

QUOTE (ChiSox_Sonix @ Aug 23, 2009 -> 10:49 AM) Comparing Allen to Bagwell is laughable. Also, remember the reaction when KW traded away Chris Young? It was much worse, and look how that ended up. Much worse? Brandon Allen is a better hitter than Chris Young will ever be, and the Javy deal was a fair trade talent-for-talent at the time. Brandon Allen for Tony Pena seems like a major overpayment to me. I guess we'll have to see, but considering Allen's ceiling FAAAAAAR outweighs that of Pena, it's a major risk. I hate the deal and I hated it the second it was made.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Aug 23, 2009 -> 11:17 AM) While I criticize KW from time to time (mostly because there are so many people who think he can do no wrong) picking out 2 trades in 9 years is a bit ridiculous. Everyone screws up. I still think in the long run the Swisher trade isn't as bad as you think. He's not a CF and didn't have a place to play on the White Sox. They got out of his contract. We'll see how he does the next several years. Rios probably isn't a White Sox if Swisher is around, and he's a better player, and they did use the money they saved this year to sign Viciedo. The Foulke trade was bad at the time, the Sox may have won the WS in 2003 or 2004 if they kept him, but Cotts did help them win in 2005 even if Koch was done when they acquired him. May vs. did, I'll take the did anytime. So many bad trades wind up decently. When Hawk was GM, he was criticized for trading Bobby Bonilla for Jose DeLeon. DeLeon was a decent pitcher who eventually turned into Lance Johnson. A guy that helped the Sox win a lot of games. Hawk supposedly ruined the White Sox, a team not good enough to win previously when they had Britt Burns (who never pitched again) and Tom Seaver (who didn't wan't to play in the midwest anymore) and Bob James (who fell apart) leading their pitching staff in 1985. He also acquired Ivan Calderon for almost nothing, and Calderon help the Sox have a great season in 1990, before he was turned into Tim Raines. He was also criticized for turning over the scouting dept., the department that drafted Kurt Brown over Barry Bonds. I'm using Hawk as an example of grading the Swisher trade. Its waaaaaaaaaaaayyyyy to early to grade it. Granted Betemit and Marquez aren't long for getting paid to play baseball, but what if Viciedo becomes a star? What if Nunez becomes dominant? Perhaps those are longshots, but what if Rios outplays Swisher for years? That's almost a guarantee. Great post all around. Besides, I guarantee that there will be better baseball players than Nick Swisher available as free agents this offseason for a lot less than what we'd have paid Swisher to be a butcher in CF. I've said before that the first deal for Swisher was the mistake, not the second. The Yankees aren't b****ing about his contract right now because they're the Yankees, but the majority of other teams in baseball aren't going to like that contract in this baseball economy. He's an average player that will end up getting paid like an above-average-to-star player and just unloading him gets Kenny positive marks from me. I like Nunez too and he might become an above-average reliever.

QUOTE (WCSox @ Aug 22, 2009 -> 08:59 AM) No, I'm all for OPS. But we already have a lot of players who hit homers and walk. A contact hitter with good (and efficient) base-stealing skills would bring some much-needed diversity to this lineup. I don't know if Getz will post a high-enough OBP to fill the leadoff spot, but I'm getting sick of all this station-to-station crap. Baseball is played on statsheets, not fields, and things like contact, batting average, and a balanced offensive attack do not matter in the real world. Fill a team up with low batting average guys who take walks and hit home runs and you've got yourself a division winner. All those years the Twins beat our asses... well... that never happened. And the dome is cursed. And OPS, etc.

QUOTE (WCSox @ Aug 21, 2009 -> 05:40 PM) I'm more shocked that he (reportedly) wasn't claimed by an NL team. Lots of contenders are willing to over-pay a little for an edge at this point. Not really. He made it though 26 of 29 eligible teams without getting claimed. The #27 team claimed him and there's no indication the Yankees or Angels would have claimed him had the Red Sox not done so. The Red Sox are probably panicking with Texas right on their asses in the wild card race and TB not far behind. The Yankees look like they won't be caught this year. The Red Sox would be dumb to offer anything because Wagner is already theirs. Seems like the Mets waited for Wagner's rehab assignment to finish in hopes someone would make a claim and the Mets would get salary savings instead of a prospect.

Didn't Ken Harvey for the Royals once go chasing after a foul ball down the right field line and end up falling over the tarp, getting stuck between the tarp and the wall with his fat ass hanging out and legs dangling?

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Aug 21, 2009 -> 07:39 AM) I've enjoyed watching Kanny this year. Lots of great pitching on that team's opening roster, though some have since been promoted or traded. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe their Opening Day roster included: Dan Hudson, Dexter Carter, Charlie Leesman, Stephen Sauer, Gregory Infante, Justin Edwards, Dan Remenowsky, Tyson Corley, Drew O'Neill, Charlis Burdie, Kyle Bellamy and Nathan Jones. I don't think any team in our system was in the ballpark as far as that much pitching talent. Yeah, Kanny has been fun to track. Between that team and the Barons especially it has been a fun year to track players in the farm system. Even Charlotte has been interesting at points and is interesting right now.