chw42

QUOTE (High Mileage @ Jun 26, 2011 -> 04:54 PM) Probably 40%. Same thing for todays' game, a little over 28,000 on hand... It's kinda sad that the Cubs @ Royals game last night drew more than any game in the past Sox Cubs series at the Cell.

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Jun 26, 2011 -> 04:25 PM) Hard to say. Dunn is a DH and WAR accounts for defense. Will know tomorrow, I guess. But at least JP makes contact with the damn baseball. Meaning something flukish can always happen when you put the ball in play. Dunn. K and that's it. It's really hard to have -.4 WAR tacked on in one game.

It's so frustrating how any semblance of an offense would have us in shape for a sweep. This is easily the most frustrating team to watch since 2007.

QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ Jun 26, 2011 -> 03:47 PM) I like this one better: Is that the Kotaku logo?

QUOTE (fathom @ Jun 26, 2011 -> 03:45 PM) Well, at least he won't be starting for another week. I can't believe we continue to let him face LHP. That's completely on Ozzie.

QUOTE (Flash Tizzle @ Jun 26, 2011 -> 03:44 PM) Dunn loves those 0 foot bombs to the catcher He leads the league in those.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jun 26, 2011 -> 03:38 PM) Damn I wish we'd paid like $15 million a year to a lefty to do that. A.J. and Teahen are our only hope. You'd think Dunn would run into more pitches. It's like he walked into a scantron test knowing nothing, but instead of just marking the same answers over and over again, he's filling in a random one every time.

Looks like only lefties can hit it out today.

This is some bulls***. That wind's cost us 2 home runs today.

God damn it. f***ing wind.

They're walking Konerko. No reason not to with Dunn on deck and a lefty warm in the bullpen.

QUOTE (Harry Chappas @ Jun 26, 2011 -> 03:28 PM) Humber tired at 90 pitches and Hernandez is breezing at 120 this offense is an epic embarassment Humber has ALWAYS been tired by the 90 pitch mark.

I can say that I rarely second guess Ozzie. Because I usually detect trouble before it comes.

QUOTE (FlySox87 @ Jun 26, 2011 -> 03:11 PM) That whole bit about making sure the numbers are based not on league average but on replacement level, does that mean that a player is going to have a higher number if his replacement is worse? Of two otherwise equal players, one will be rated higher because his replacement is lousier? That seems silly. Replacement level is theoretical and it's a constant. It's set at 20 runs produced (not runs scored, RBI, whatever), per 600 PA. It gets a lot more complicated with pitchers. There's a reason WAR uses replacement and not average. Because if a player gets hurt and is replaced by a minor league player or bench player, you can't just say that he's average. Because most likely, he will not be average. So why not just place a mark and say, here is what a replacement player is? That's all it is. Of course, they didn't just decide on 20 runs per 600 PAs, that was all researched and formulated. A team full of replacement players wins 48 games, usually (if you go by FanGraphs WAR). Really, replacement level is nothing but a placemarker. A lot of people have trouble imagining this and it's hard to just believe in an arbitrary number. I don't think it's a huge deal, since everybody's replacement level is exactly the same.

Wow, we dodged a bullet.

Ozzie should get the bullpen up. Humber usually starts to lose his effectiveness around the 90 pitch mark.

QUOTE (fathom @ Jun 26, 2011 -> 03:06 PM) Why was Heilman and his near 7 ERA pitching for Arizona in a one run game? Kirk Gibson was reminiscing about his pinch hit HR in the WS.

QUOTE (maggsmaggs @ Jun 26, 2011 -> 03:04 PM) http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/misc/war/ Wins Above Replacement (WAR) is an attempt by the sabermetric community to summarize a player’s total contributions to their team in one statistic. You should always use more than one metric at a time when evaluating players, but WAR is pretty darn all-inclusive and provides a handy reference point. WAR basically looks at a player and asks the question, “If this player got injured and their team had to replace them with a minor leaguer or someone from their bench, how much value would the team be losing?” This value is expressed in a wins format, so we could say that Player X is worth 6.3 wins to their team while Player Y is only worth 3.5 wins. If you are curious. The statisticians do a lot to make the output of their formulas easy to understand (FIP normalized to ERA, wOBA normalized to OBP, WAR normalized to wins instead of runs). Yet, a lot of people still scratch their heads.

QUOTE (FlySox87 @ Jun 26, 2011 -> 03:00 PM) His career high in HRs was 24 and he only hit 20+ bombs in a season five times. He only had 100+ RBIs four times, and his career high was 107. And again, I realize the difference in OBP. This is mainly why I said the whole "poor man's" thing. Olerud's .465 career SLG vs. Loney's .428. Plus Olerud's Isolated Power: .170. Loney's: .141. I don't think Loney's even a poor man's Olerud. I don't even consider them in the same stratosphere. Olerud had some seasons where he displayed very good power. He had a .236 ISO and a .600 slugging in 1994. Loney hasn't displayed much promise with the bat since his rookie season.

QUOTE (maggsmaggs @ Jun 26, 2011 -> 02:57 PM) Where can I find pitcher's run support numbers? Looked on BR/Fangraphs and am coming up empty. Phillip has gotta be getting like three runs a game. ESPN has them.

I thought that ball was gone off the bat.

QUOTE (FlySox87 @ Jun 26, 2011 -> 02:52 PM) He had 35 doubles in 2008 and 41 last year. He won't come close to that this year, I'll admit. But to say he's very below average really isn't fair. He's sort of a poor man's...John Olerud? OBP is a lot lower, but other than that, they're quite comparable. Or maybe a Wally Joyner. And nobody ever gave those two any slack for their lack of power. I'm not saying Loney's one of the best first basemen in baseball. He's decent, for sure, and when talking about having a guy with .174 BA and record-breaking K pace replace him, he definitely doesn't deserve to be called below average. Olerud hit for a lot more power and got on base a lot more. There's a huge difference between a .400 OBP (Olerud) and a .340 OBP (Loney). Plus, Olerud was a great defensive 1B. Loney's just above average.

QUOTE (JoshPR @ Jun 26, 2011 -> 02:49 PM) I hate those damn sabermetrics, I mean who cares about war and whatever, bill James never played and he's gotten rich on these stupid stats This is why I like to just stick with OBP and OPS now when I post. People tend to understand those more and I won't have to deal with people complaining about complexity and mental masturbation. You can cancel the postgame show.

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Jun 26, 2011 -> 02:47 PM) LMAO. How is this possible? Every person in the universe would have laughed at you if you told them that Adam Dunn would be hitting .175 with 7 homers in late June. s***, if I woke up from a coma and saw Dunn's numbers, I'd literally say, "is this real life?"

QUOTE (FlySox87 @ Jun 26, 2011 -> 02:44 PM) Umm, Loney's hitting .280. And he has three straight years of 88 or more RBIs. He's not a superstar, but he doesn't flat out suck... For a 1B, he has no power. His OBP isn't that good. He's an adequate fielder and that's the only thing he does well. He's a gap power hitter playing 1B, which makes him very below average.