chw42

Mark needs to pitch like he did in Oakland. Let's take this series now.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Jul 28, 2010 -> 08:57 AM) rant/ People need to stop using the "small sample size" defense. The last I looked nobody has done a power analysis to determine what the proper sample size needs to be to predict the outcome of a 162 game schedule. Until that's determined you have no idea what the adequate sample size need to be. People continue to use statistical analysis without regard for the reliability or validity of any of the processes. This is one of the problems with all of Bill James stats. He bases them off things he thinks makes sense, but has never done and will never do reliability studies on them. I've e-mailed him and asked him those questions and he replied once about 10 years ago. His respose was "they seem to make sense to me." He doesn't respond to any statistical analysis questions anymore. I know I've stated this before but it bothers me when people use statistical analysis for their discussions when they really don't know how to use the terms. /rant. Judging anybody based on a two month sample size isn't a good idea. We've seen numerous times where players go on incredible 2-month power streaks (Chris Shelton, Jonny Gomes) and end up playing like absolute crap for the remainder of the season. As unlikely as it seems that a nobody could run into 20 some odd home runs, it is possible, but somewhat improbable. But still possible. I just read yesterday that the NFC had won 14 straight coin tosses in the SuperBowl, the odds of that happening are 1 in 16384. Seems incredibly improbable, but it's still happening. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/a...tingrandomness/

Westbrook is about as good as Joe Saunders. If you really need a 5th starter, why not?

QUOTE (Brian @ Jul 27, 2010 -> 09:13 PM) I think he does and he said he wouldn't vote Omar first ballot. But he may have been hypothetically saying that. Enough people will. He has legitimate reasons for not voting Omar in, but saying that Jeter was a better shortstop defensively just made me do a double take.

Looks like those bad mechanics are starting to take somewhat of an effect.

QUOTE (clown baby @ Jul 27, 2010 -> 07:51 PM) it seems like the dbacks are willing to trade him. he has decent peripherals this year and has great stuff, as always. i think he would be a great number 5 for the future and a good number 4 now. it would make hudson expandable. not sure what exactly they are looking for, but i can actually see it being possible to get him and dunn before the trade deadline. in other words, coop will fix him. teach him the cutter. You can also try and dangle him to Washington for Dunn.

It's good to have a laugher once in a while. Gavin was real good today, as usual. By the end of this series, I expect Detroit to be buried in the dirt and 5-6 games back of us.

QUOTE (The Ginger Kid @ Jul 27, 2010 -> 08:18 PM) nice to see Brennan Boesch coming back to earth. Now if Pavano would re-discover his Yankeeness... That was more than due. Regression to the mean at its finest.

QUOTE (JoeCoolMan24 @ Jul 27, 2010 -> 07:58 PM) Omar sure thinks we need to add another player to this team.... "I think we need to add something," Vizquel said. "If it's not another pitcher, probably it's another hitter. This is a time where we really need to make a step towards getting better and to separate between the teams that are around, having a chance, and the teams that really need to go on to the playoffs. "I guess the final cut is coming. This is the last time to make a change, and I think that with another guy on the team, we might secure the next step." I enjoyed his first comment. Well if it's not a pitcher, then OBVIOUSLY it's a hitter. lol. I like Omar more now.

QUOTE (scenario @ Jul 27, 2010 -> 06:32 PM) LOL at Garza's phone conversation with his 8 year old son after the game... (His wife and kids were visiting relatives in California.) "My son is the funniest kid ever,'' Garza said. "When I threw against the Marlins, he told me, "Man, dad, you suck - one inning, seven runs. I could do that.' I call him last night and I said, "Matthew, did you watch the game?" He's like yea. I said, "Nine innings, no hits. Who sucks now?" And he goes, "You're still not an All-Star." "He's a chip off the old block. It was good though. He's a competitor, and that's the way I like it. He keeps you grounded. He's like, you're not the best yet. So don't start floating away yet. I think that was the coolest thing, because for me it's him getting into baseball and watching it.' That kid is cocky.

I'll be in tonight.

QUOTE (Kalapse @ Jul 27, 2010 -> 04:56 PM) Smoak is 23 years old, was the 11th overall pick in the 2008 draft, the #13 overall prospect in baseball (Beckham was #20 last year) and hit .293/.411/.461/.872 in 599 PA in the minors between 4 levels over the last 1.5 years. The fact that he struggled in his first 275 major league PA at age 23 didn't change his status as an incredibly valuable young player with huge upside. Smoak is basically = Beckham. Smoak's actually been really, really unlucky this year.

There's a much better likelihood of him getting hurt when he's playing defense. Because you know, that requires a lot of running. Injury-proneness is one thing when you look at Quentin, but the flip side is that his defense is flatout atrocious. The ankle and knee problems have made him even worse lately.

QUOTE (SoxFan1 @ Jul 27, 2010 -> 05:12 PM) I know I'd love to have him in the outfield for the Sox. Right now, sure. But before this year, I wouldn't have even bothered.

QUOTE (Kalapse @ Jul 27, 2010 -> 04:47 PM) There's always Josh Willingham though I'm sure the price for him is higher than even that of Dunn. It should be higher than Dunn's. Willingham can play defense and hit almost as well.

QUOTE (joesaiditstrue @ Jul 27, 2010 -> 04:27 PM) If the DBacks throw in Adam LaRoche, do you bite if you're the Sox? Also, give reasons please There really shouldn't be reasons given for a trade proposal like that. Gordon Beckham is worth more than two of those guys combined.

QUOTE (joesaiditstrue @ Jul 27, 2010 -> 04:23 PM) Would you guys do this trade (and do you think the DBacks would bite?) Gordon Beckham + Daniel Hudson for Edwin Jackson + Kelly Johnson? You keep your Vizquel/Viciedo/Teahen TriPlatoon at 3B for the rest of the year, or until the playoffs, you get a left-handed hitter with a decent OBP & Pop playing where Beckham was, and you have a rotation going into the playoffs that's pretty solid, and your 2011 rotation would be pretty ridiculous, and you have Johnson locked up for 2011 as well Edit: This also allows you to keep the DH spot a swinging door between Quentin/Konerko/Viciedo or whatever versatility Ozzie wants Ew, no.

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Jul 27, 2010 -> 03:45 PM) And I ain't trading Strasburg for anybody not named Jayson Heyward either. It's good to know that you are smarter than Steve Phillips.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 27, 2010 -> 03:45 PM) I'd be astonished if he gets stuck with that level deal again this offseason. The thing with Dunn is that since he's nothing but a DH, that's all he should be worth.

I don't want Dunn for 4 years and $60 million. No way. 2 years at $24 million? Maybe.

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Jul 27, 2010 -> 03:03 PM) Well I'm not a mechanics expert. Some people think Strasburg has bad mechanics. I just can't, in my mind anyway, justify trading somebody because of mechanics. Unless you really think you're getting a good package back. And Jackson/Kennedy was just not that. But I agree. That deal was nowhere near the abomination that was the Haren deal. Strasburg does have bad mechanics. http://www.chrisoleary.com/projects/baseba...nStrasburg.html Analysis of Scherzer: http://www.disabledlistinformer.com/?p=476

QUOTE (danman31 @ Jul 27, 2010 -> 03:23 PM) The difference was he wasn't hitting for power then. Considering he doesn't draw walks that puts a lot of pressure on his ability to hit for contact and power. He can hit .300 and actually not be that valuable as a corner outfielder. Before this year, that's what he pretty much did. He was basically the least valuable .290-.300 hitter in the league, especially if you add in his bad defense.

QUOTE (PlaySumFnJurny @ Jul 27, 2010 -> 03:06 PM) Apparently last week, Rizzo wanted Garza from the Rays for Dunn. http://danny-knobler.blogs.cbssports.com/m...ntryListMiniCnt Haha, that trade won't even work in MLB 10 The Show.

QUOTE (balfanman @ Jul 27, 2010 -> 03:09 PM) I thought that Visquel had several pretty good offensive years with Cleveland. I know that he won't get into the Hall on his offensive prowess alone, but I thought that he was above average. He was pretty good for a couple of years. But for the majority of his career, he's been very mediocre.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 27, 2010 -> 02:58 PM) You have to add the qualifier "assuming the asking price is the same". It won't be and it shouldn't be. Scott is going to be here next year if we do get him. A year and two months of a .365 wOBA hitter is a lot more valuable than 2 months of a .340 wOBA hitter (that's what ZiPS is projecting for Edmonds).