chw42

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 28, 2010 -> 02:15 PM) You're not going to hear me defending that. I can defend Jones as doing an excellent job in his role as 4th OF/part time DH. I can't defend anything Kotsay has done this year. What's worse is that Kotsay only plays 1B. You can play Viciedo at 1B to give Paulie a day off if need be. I see absolutely zero things that Mark Kotsay does better than Thome except run slightly faster and the ability to play 1B. Those two things don't even come close to the .280 gap in their OPS or the near .100 gap in their wOBA.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 28, 2010 -> 02:06 PM) Jones has an OPS+ of 98 on the season and a .753 OPS. Against LH pitchers in particular, he has an .853 OPS. Furthermore, he's been a plus fielder in both CF and RF, despite limited time there (he's been a negative fielder in LF, but he's played a total of 10 games there, as opposed to 35 in RF). Yes, he's all or nothing, but he's pretty much been exactly the kind of guy you'd want on your bench and rotating through the DH as the right-handed partner. Strong on defense, and especially against LHP, not a liability with the bats. The issue is that Kotsay's getting almost all the PAs as the DH.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Jul 28, 2010 -> 01:55 PM) I do think this is the thread of the century, though. The timing of it is mind boggling. And no I don't drink the koolaid. I think the Twins will ultimately win the division by six or seven games. But as of today we are in the race which isn't really a fireable offense for either of the above mentioned subjects. So let me get this straight. You think we're not good enough to win the division. Yet, you are complaining about others saying this team isn't good enough. I don't care if where we are in the standings. Criticism is not always time dependent. When you see something wrong and there is something wrong, that wrong isn't going to go fix itself on its own. You're basically saying that it's okay to second guess when we lose the division while it's not okay to first guess now.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Jul 28, 2010 -> 01:29 PM) Ozzie's plan for the rotating DH. Keep a player's bat in the lineup while resting him from the field. This is why he wanted Kotsay and Jones. Good defenders in the field while the starters rest. It's only a good plan if you have capable offensive players, which we really don't have in Kotsay and Jones.

QUOTE (heirdog @ Jul 28, 2010 -> 01:45 PM) When was the last time the Braves actually gave up a top (elite) level prospect that actually panned out? I really can't think of one...Andy Marte, Jarrold Saltalamachia, Tyler Flowers. Those guys really seem to know or tout their prospects well and package them in trades. So I think we go ahead and trade Flowers because the Braves gave him to us and it was for Javy "Freakin'" Vasquez so you know he can't be all that good. Elvis Andrus and Neftali Feliz.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 28, 2010 -> 01:20 PM) If that's true then other GM's are quite silly indeed. Doesn't really mean his talent is declining. He was just really good last year and it would have been easier to sell that to a GM.

QUOTE (Ozzie Ball @ Jul 28, 2010 -> 01:10 PM) Pizza Cutter did a study on how big of a sample size is needed in order for the numbers to hold any predictive value. It worked out that you need a 550 PA sample size for a >.70 correlation with ISO. Two months is not going to tell you a lot. I knew somebody would have looked at this in some way.

QUOTE (beck72 @ Jul 28, 2010 -> 01:11 PM) I said that in the short term it may be a wash re: dunn and CQ production wise. But long term, CQ or Hudson would be worth more wins as Dunn is DHing somewhere. Put Hudson in any system and he is a top SP prospect after not only performing but excelling in every level of the minors. After his solid AAA year, Hudson has only increased his value from 2009. You may, and others around here, compare Hudson's ceiling with other system stalwarts like Poreda, Clayton, McCarthy, Rauch, etc. after the sox have had few arms make it in the bigs. He may suck like the rest. Yet Hudson should be looked at by his own merits, strengths and weaknesses. He seems to be above those others, with his control, movement on his pitches, his fit in the ballpark, his aggressiveness, demeanor, durability, etc. He doesn't have overpowering stuff and needs to rely on his control, location and movement. If he gets behind in the count, he'll get hurt. I honestly think Hudson was more valuable last year than he is this year.

QUOTE (fathom @ Jul 28, 2010 -> 12:53 PM) D. Lee used his no-trade clause to void a deal to LAA. He's staying with Cubs for rest of season. Haha, Jim Hendry's no trade clause on every contract is starting to haunt them.

QUOTE (JoeCoolMan24 @ Jul 28, 2010 -> 12:50 PM) According to Greg Walker, we are a great fastball hitting team, and weak when it comes to change-ups. He couldn't be anymore right. I was surprised that we hit Fister last time out, we've had lots of issues with him before.

QUOTE (hitlesswonder @ Jul 28, 2010 -> 12:45 PM) I was going by Law's top 100 prospects list, which Hudson didn't make. Granted, some teams don't have a pitching prospect on there, but most do. And before we go with the "Law hates the Sox" stuff, Flowers and Mitchell made the list when they probably shouldn't have given their K rates. I think it's fair to say that Hudson's value as a prospect is certainly open for debate. Of course he doesn't make it. It's Keith Law.

Hudson was ranked in the top 70 by Baseball America. Do the math. 70/30 = 2.333 On the average team, Hudson would be a top 3 prospect, if not top 2.

QUOTE (scenario @ Jul 28, 2010 -> 12:01 PM) Marcum is making $850,000 this year and has 2 arb years left before free agency. What is the motivation for the Blue Jays to trade him unless the Twins are willing to overpay? Most major league teams do NOT give up cheap young quality starters unless they get a ransom for them. This rumor has been shot down pretty much. People thought it was going to be Marcum because they called up a AA pitcher to take his spot, turns out Marcum had a blister problem and he would also be starting on three days' rest. I said something similar on the first page to what you said, trading him doesn't make a whole lot of sense for the Blue Jays.

QUOTE (Frank_Thomas35 @ Jul 28, 2010 -> 11:51 AM) This hasn't been talked about yet. With the emergence of Santos and the fact that Putz and Thorton are pitching well. What about a Jenks for David Ortiz? The redsox are looking for relif and ortiz is a great clutch left handed power bat. Why would the Red Sox trade Ortiz in the first place?

QUOTE (fathom @ Jul 27, 2010 -> 09:47 PM) Brett Myers deserves so much more love on the trade market than he's getting. He looks sensational on the mound this season. He's actually better than anyone that's out there right now, really. If only he wasn't such an ass hole.

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Jul 28, 2010 -> 02:19 AM) So first we had Dipotity or whatever his name is pimping Joe Saunders because of his win total in 2008-2009. Now we've got Melvin using quality starts to somehow put Dave f***ing Bush in the same class as Cliff Lee (who missed the first month of the season) and Dan Haren? What does it really require to be a GM these days? f***ing morons. Maybe I should appreciate KW more. Scott Boras compared Oliver Perez to Sandy Koufax. It's called trying to lure stupid people in.

QUOTE (beck72 @ Jul 28, 2010 -> 08:23 AM) With Tor. asking for Joba Chamberlain from the yanks and Casey Kelly from Boston for two months of Scott Downs [and soundly rejected], http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/07/aski...cott-downs.html what would the Yanks say to Bobby Jenks for Joba? The Yanks don't have a reliable set up man to get the game to Mariano and may think Jenks could be a key addition. Joba's 5.95 ERA is ugly, and the Yanks don't take kindly to failure. Jenks in set up would be an upgrade for them, and would be worth more than Downs as he's under team control in 2011. It would take salary off the sox hands as well. Trading Jenks for Joba would favor the Yanks the rest of this year. Yet it would probably be a wash for the Sox in 2010, with Putz and Thornton picking up the closer spot and be a big pick up in 2011 and beyond. Even if it's not to the Yanks for Joba, trading bobby now would be a great way to get out from his contract because they likely won't be able to move him in the off season. Teams need bullpen help now and there aren't many options for closing/ set up. Toronto's crazy. That's pretty much what you can come away with in those rumors. As for Bobby, I'm sure some teams would have interest, but we're not getting anything near Joba or Kelly back for him.

QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Jul 27, 2010 -> 08:28 PM) You're a good knowledgeable poster but sometimes I just laugh. At least 75% of you posts have a sabremetric stat in it. I guess I just laugh because there's such a difference in anything you see with the mainstream media ( newspapers and TV) and what you see online from young baseball fans. Tell me something don't most guys with high BA and high OPS usually also have high line drive rates and high BABIP ? And if most do wouldn't they all be due for a regression at some point ? It's as if you rely on these things as some sort of crystal ball. It's Jim Edmonds, he's not really what a lot of people consider a good hitter anymore. And no. There is a difference between good and unsustainable. Alex Rios is hitting really well this year, but his BABIP is only 10 points higher than his batting average. Albert Pujols only hits around 16-17% line drives. 29% is a gaudy amount of line drives and a .350 BABIP is the result. Edmonds has always hit a good amount of line drives (usually around 20%), but when that rate is almost at 30%, there's no way he's going to keep that up. Detroit's had two guys this year that I have been watching closely - Austin Jackson and Brennan Boesch. I've been saying that Jackson's going to slump for a while now, he's no longer hitting .380 like he was early in the year, but he's now hitting .315. There's going to be another slump coming sometime soon for him, he has a .430 BABIP and a 28% line drive rate. Nobody with a good 600 PAs has ever had a BABIP above .390. And that 28% line drive rate won't hold. As for Boesch, the regression is in full swing. At the ASB, he was hitting near .340 with a .390 BABIP. He is now down to .305 and a .339 BABIP. Boesch's track record in the minors along with that unsustainable BABIP (especially since his batted ball rates looked extremely normal) made me feel that his hot hitting wasn't going to last all that long. Of course, Jackson's the much more toolsy player in comparison to Boesch, so that may be why Jackson is still floating while Boesch is sinking. Either way, those are two little anecdotes about unsustainable BABIP and line drive rates.

Rudy Fernandez and Brewer would be a nice 2 guard platoon.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Jul 28, 2010 -> 09:23 AM) But you and this article are doing the same thing that Big Sqwert admonished Balta for. You are picking events to justify an idea you have about the sample. It's guessing. I'm not saying that 2 months of numbers is an adequate sample size or not. I haven't done the power analysis either. But you using the term sample size wrong. You can say that he is bias in using certain data to make his point, as you and the article did above. But before you start using the statistical terminology in relation to statistics, not events, you should have the data to back it up. There is always statistical error, like the example you pointed out. This is another reason why people shouldn't live and die by Bill James' made up stats during the discussions on this site. I'm sure somebody has tried to do a power analysis. Guys like Tom Tango and Mitchel Lichtman have been doing sabermetric research for decades. They have a whole book dedicated to things like bunts, clutch hitting, lineup order, hot and cold streaks, etc. If you dig deep enough, you might find something about power. I haven't come across it myself, but it might be out there. Bill James is just some guy who is looked at as the guy who makes up all these stats nobody has an idea about, but he's not really one of the current innovators of sabermetrics. Asking him about something 10 years ago probably isn't going to give you the whole story.

QUOTE (clown baby @ Jul 28, 2010 -> 02:32 AM) Thome has a .933 OPS, and is the exact lefty power bat that we are missing... Hating the Thome shift is a pretty dumb reason to not want him. Ozzie really screwed up picking Kotsay over Thome. It's going to cost us some good prospects now if we want to get somebody of equal production to Thome. That move is really not talked about enough. It could end up costing us Hudson and another good prospect. Ozzie screwed up. Plain and simple. I really need to stop listening to the Score, the callers give me headaches. But last night, some idiot called in to Les Grobstein and tried to defend Ozzie's decision by saying that Kotsay and Jones are more versatile and since they've hit 19 home runs combined, they're better than Thome. I hate people sometimes.

Mark needs to pitch like he did in Oakland. Let's take this series now.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Jul 28, 2010 -> 08:57 AM) rant/ People need to stop using the "small sample size" defense. The last I looked nobody has done a power analysis to determine what the proper sample size needs to be to predict the outcome of a 162 game schedule. Until that's determined you have no idea what the adequate sample size need to be. People continue to use statistical analysis without regard for the reliability or validity of any of the processes. This is one of the problems with all of Bill James stats. He bases them off things he thinks makes sense, but has never done and will never do reliability studies on them. I've e-mailed him and asked him those questions and he replied once about 10 years ago. His respose was "they seem to make sense to me." He doesn't respond to any statistical analysis questions anymore. I know I've stated this before but it bothers me when people use statistical analysis for their discussions when they really don't know how to use the terms. /rant. Judging anybody based on a two month sample size isn't a good idea. We've seen numerous times where players go on incredible 2-month power streaks (Chris Shelton, Jonny Gomes) and end up playing like absolute crap for the remainder of the season. As unlikely as it seems that a nobody could run into 20 some odd home runs, it is possible, but somewhat improbable. But still possible. I just read yesterday that the NFC had won 14 straight coin tosses in the SuperBowl, the odds of that happening are 1 in 16384. Seems incredibly improbable, but it's still happening. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/a...tingrandomness/

Westbrook is about as good as Joe Saunders. If you really need a 5th starter, why not?

QUOTE (Brian @ Jul 27, 2010 -> 09:13 PM) I think he does and he said he wouldn't vote Omar first ballot. But he may have been hypothetically saying that. Enough people will. He has legitimate reasons for not voting Omar in, but saying that Jeter was a better shortstop defensively just made me do a double take.