chw42

QUOTE (Brian @ Jul 16, 2010 -> 07:40 PM) Why was Q scratched? He got hit on the wrist yesterday. It was sore today.

Gavin's got the curve working pretty well.

Cuddyer sure loves hitting pitches right down the middle into the ground.

Lillibridge is turning everything into a line drive.

QUOTE (IamtheHBOMB @ Jul 16, 2010 -> 06:49 PM) Quinarvy, that was a great article. Thanks for posting it. You know, I've always thought LeBron was an egomaniacal douchebag. It's become apparent in these last few weeks that he is an easily manipulated, insecure dope as well. Riley and Wade knew how to exploit that in their favor. There was a funny quote from a fan in the recent Bill Simmons article - The All LeBron soundoff: I've figured out the moral of the story: Stay in school. Wade: 3 years at Marquette Bosh: 1 year at Georgia Tech The kid from Akron: no college The most educated guy convinced his dumber friends to come play on his team for less money. Haha He was even smart enough to convince LeBron to make himself look like a d-bag so that he'd be the top dog in Miami!

Viciedo showed a good amount of range on that play.

Wanna get Andruw out? Don't throw him a fastball and don't hang any off-speed stuff.

QUOTE (Reddy @ Jul 16, 2010 -> 07:00 PM) might as well. Worked well last time.

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Jul 16, 2010 -> 06:22 PM) Dude, I've known you for less than a year and you're one of my favorite posters ever. I love detail. You're right there there with Kalapse and Qwerty and that gay dude named Witesoxfan (and I love my brothers Soxace lol@the reed switch, Rowand44, Heads and Palehose). I am honored.

QUOTE (Ranger @ Jul 16, 2010 -> 06:17 PM) Yeah, I'm aware of this number. But like you said, this is true in general, but it is not true for every specific case. When a team is playing for one run, and one run only, the sacrifice is not a bad bet. If you're playing for multiple runs, it's not a good idea. And like you said, that number does not take into account who's pitching, who's up next, who's in the hole, who's on base, and the situation overall. Every scenario is different. Also forgot one last bit. The most amount of bunts take effect in the first, seventh, eight, and ninth innings. The fact that 12% of all bunts appear in the first inning is disturbing. The 7,8,9 innings are where nearly 50% of bunts do occur.

Ozzie's being careful with him.

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Jul 16, 2010 -> 05:05 PM) Leave greg alone. Only I can pick on him. Batting 4th, the Designated Bully, Jordan4Life!

QUOTE (J.Reedfan8 @ Jul 16, 2010 -> 05:01 PM) I'm guessing on my part, but I believe he is suspended. (I don't think he took my "RIP" sig thing THAT seriously) The timing was just so weird.

QUOTE (IamtheHBOMB @ Jul 16, 2010 -> 05:00 PM) What is the right price for Fielder? Nowhere near as much as the Brewers are asking for.

BTW, where the hell has Steve been lately? It really makes me think that he's gone into depression after the whole LeBron thing.

QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Jul 16, 2010 -> 04:45 PM) And on to Dan Haren or Adam Dunn. Though what would they do with Gordon? They have Weeks and Escobar... They also have Brett Lawrie.

QUOTE (fathom @ Jul 16, 2010 -> 04:44 PM) Penny's not recovering well from the muscle injury he has. I wasn't aware of Garcia's limitations. I wasn't either until some Cardinals fan friends told me. It's kind of weird to limit a guy who's been pitching so well.

Damn, Penny's out for the year? The Cards really need to go get somebody then. Jaime Garcia is innings limited due to his recovery from TJS.

I think this is in the catch-all.

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Jul 16, 2010 -> 04:23 PM) Doesn't Aramis have a history of going nuts with the bat when the Cubs are hopelessly out of it? He did have a career year in 2006...

From FanGraphs. Interesting...

Nobody's really faced Liriano enough to get gauge of how good he is against us. Plus, Liriano had that one really bad game against us last year, where he walked the entire world and Corky Miller and Wilson Betemit tee'd off on him. This Liriano's not the same as that one.

I did a little more digging around for this. From 2000-2004, there were over 5700 bunt attempts with a runner on first and nobody out, which means the batter at least attempted to bunt at a pitch sometime in the at bat. In this case, the batter reached base or advanced the runner 69.1% of the time, meaning he failed 30.9% of the time. Overall, this case had a run expectancy of .831 runs (because these are just at bats where bunts were attempted, some of these at bats could have resulted in the hitter swinging away due to fouling off two strikes, etc). This does not include pitchers bunting. However, of the successful sac bunts, the run expectancy was .7. So there is a .131 run advantage in bunt attempts over actual sac bunts, that alone seems, well, weird, considering that this includes the 30.9% failure rate (getting out with no base advance). Then you have to also think about the run expectancy advantage of just swinging away, where the run expectancy is .875 (not .9). So usually, swinging away has its advantages and generally, sac bunts are bad. This also applies in late inning high leverage situations. The sac bunt, in almost every case, decreases win expectancy (this is from actual data from the 70s, where bunts were still used a lot). The decrease is not gigantic, it's less than 1% in fact, but in general, the bunt in late inning situations does not help you. Of course, you have to take numerous views at this. It really depends on who is pitching, who is running ,and who is hitting. However, keep in mind that the average hitter that bunted from 2000-2004 had a .343 wOBA, above average. Of all these hitters, 40% were mediocre, 40% were bad, and 20% were good (based on wOBA). It seems like some managers are wasting outs.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 16, 2010 -> 02:11 PM) Like Mauer? Depends on the type of left handed hitter. Thome and Mauer most likely won't gain anything form the park, since they have very good opposite field power and usually don't pull their home runs. But for a guy like Morneau, it doesn't hurt.

QUOTE (Cali @ Jul 16, 2010 -> 01:55 PM) Home Run Derby is gonna be kinda lame at the park when they (eventually) get the all star game Left handed hitters will love it though.