Chicago White Sox

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 15, 2017 -> 10:44 AM) If the White Sox are telling you they need him to check out everything before he hits free agency, and he will fall in love and sign an extension, they are also telling you they aren't going to be the highest offer if he gets to free agency. And he's getting to free agency. I have no idea how you’ve jumped to that conclusion. This is all about gaining an edge against the all other teams who also plan on leveraging the “outbid everyone” strategy. IMO, the Sox wouldn’t even entertain the idea of acquiring him if they weren’t prepared to go all-in in free agency for him.

QUOTE (bmags @ Dec 15, 2017 -> 10:43 AM) Assuming Sox could offer something close to market value, or at least within 10% of it, what percentage do we think having Machado here for a year increases his likelihood of accepting our deal over others? I can't imagine it's more than 15% increase in the likelihood. So what would I pay for that 15% increase? It's real low. It's like Bernardo Flores low. Which is completely unfair to Baltimore because I'm not paying them at all for his 2018 production, which means essentially nothing. This is a great post. While I think our odds of signing improve by quite a bit more and would be willing to pay more accordingly, you’ve outlined the general idea perfectly. Everyone is entitled to debate how impactful the strategy would be, but it bothers me when people call it nonsensical. It’s only stupid if the team pays a price well above the fair value of the benefit.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 15, 2017 -> 10:31 AM) I'm almost against the concept. I guess you could talk me out of Adams maybe? On the grounds of you could get more than that at the deadline even if he has a rough first half like he had last year, but even someone like that is an expensive risk. But seriously I really dislike this as an idea. You're spending $17 million and giving up players for the imaginary idea that he'll do something other than take the best offer made to him on the FA market next year when he's worked hard to get to the point where he can cash in on the best deal? The entire idea sounds like Malarkey to me. You continue to ignore the fact that multiple teams will likely be making very similar offers. If it comes down to non-financial factors then him being familiar with our players & coaching staff could be the difference. Unfortunately since you’re unable to value that benefit with a basic formula, you’ve decided it’s essentially worth nothing. Thank god our front office isn’t as by the book as you and doesn’t assume the “outbid everyone” strategy alone is going to work when going up against teams like the Dodgers or Yankees. I applaud creativity and this is a smart strategy assuming the right price.

QUOTE (bmags @ Dec 15, 2017 -> 10:16 AM) Anyone in a weird in-between where they don't want this deal to happen but also love baseball trades and so you find yourself rooting for a trade even though you dread it? Anyway. Can the cards just please take this to the finish line? Lol...totally feel this way, but I’m still rooting for it assuming the cost is reasonable.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 15, 2017 -> 10:02 AM) I know Fulmer's peripherals weren't great last year, but he also had some decent big league performances. If you gave up Gavin Floyd after 2007 for a rental, and the team wasn't competitive in 2008, and the rental left, same rule? Whole thread still remains bewildering for this reason. When did you become the guy who suddenly thinks every prospect will work out?

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 15, 2017 -> 09:54 AM) If you gave up a guy who in 3 years was a #2 starter for a guy you paid $17 million to in a contract year where your team only won 75 games and then had that guy walk as a free agent, that should be a firing offense for a GM. Why are we assuming Cease will automatically be a #2 starter? There’s a reason his projected WAR over his first six seasons is like 2 or so because of the high bust potential a guy like him has. That’s not to say we should just give him away, but adding Machado for the 2018 season improves our chances to sign him long-term at some point and we should recognize that value whether he signs with us or not. It’s all about probability and making sure you pay the right price. I think it’s pretty f***ing awesome Hahn is thinking outside the box and is willing to take a calculated risk.

QUOTE (ChiSoxJon @ Dec 15, 2017 -> 09:48 AM) Man I wish Robert was coming up with the current wave I still think he may be up in '19 at some point He easily could come fast. I personally expect him to reach AA by the end of 2018. I think that’s where he’ll finally be challenged a bit, so 2020 seems like a pretty realistic ETA although 2019 wouldn’t completely shock me.

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Dec 15, 2017 -> 09:42 AM) A part of me thinks that the Yankees have the best offer on the table for Machado but the Orioles don't want to trade him to the Yankees. It was reported the Cardinals didn't want to trade 2 of their arms to grab him. Is it entirely possible Hahn sent a low-ball offer (not including Giolito, Kopech, Lopez, Hansen, Cease nor top position players) to the Orioles for Machado and it's actually being considered? Remember that their GM isn't really the smartest. Could also explain why Hahn was surprised that their offer was reported as the best. Something like this appears to be the case to me. As pointed out earlier, Angelos’ son is actively involved in the decision-making process and it sounds like he’s pushing to move Machado now. And honestly, anytime you’ve got a non-baseball guy as the driving force behind something the chance a completely stupid move is made is high. Plus I’ve read a lot of teams simply don’t like working with the Orioles because of how they operate. Point is maybe we threw out a moderate offer like Cease & Fulmer and somehow that is the best offer at the moment and one the Orioles would accept. I truly think you can expect the unexpected when dealing with Baltimore and that includes winning a bidding process you had no intention of winning.

QUOTE (SouthSideSale @ Dec 15, 2017 -> 09:17 AM) Agreed not to mention the White Sox aren’t a top destination usually for big time FAs. There was talk on the score about Eaton kind of trashing the Sox and Werth telling Eaton he heard the same as well. I’m trying to remember exactly what was said this morning on the score I was just waking up so I didn’t fully catch it. It was right before they were going to interview Jon Heyman. I’m sure our reputation took a hit after the LaRoche saga (right or wrong). Even more reason to trade for Machado now if the price is reasonable and the organization is serious about committing at least $350M for him.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 15, 2017 -> 09:30 AM) No. When are they normally due?

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 15, 2017 -> 08:44 AM) Well you can go to a conspiracy theory. First installment season ticket deposits are due today. It all could be some news to make those on the fence pony up some cash. It may be coincidence, but there always does seem to be some sort of rumor right around when they are due. Are deposits typically during or the week or two after the Winter Meetings? If so, I’m not seeing the coincidence.

Realistically, could this lineup combine for 30 WAR if all went right? 1. Robert, RF 2. Moncada, 2B 3. Machado, SS 4. Abreu, 1B 5. Jimenez, LF 6. Delmonico, DH 7. Burger, 3B 8. Collins, C 9. Anderson, CF

QUOTE (greg775 @ Dec 14, 2017 -> 08:46 PM) I shouldn't start a new thread, because people get upset when I do that, but I couldn't resist. The thread on our rotation looking strong makes me want to share what the talk shows were saying tonight as they discussed the Duffy trade rumors. KC Royals are probably going to start rebuilding and shopping Duffy in the words of the host, "because teams like the White Sox and Twins have passed them and will dominate the division the next five years." Hmmm ... the KC announcers think the Sox already are contenders whereas our fans think there's two additional seasons of tanking left in us. Just thought I'd pass on that in KC, perhaps cause of the head to head meetings in which the Sox looked good last year vs. KC, the people are thinking the Sox rebuild is over and the time to win is starting. That's food for thought for those who are looking forward to two more seasons of tank. Has the team arrived or not? KC people say the Sox have arrived no matter how badly many fans want more top five draft picks. No one here cares what KC people have to say about our rebuild.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 14, 2017 -> 07:39 PM) At the deadline, it could be anybody. An injury here an injury there, an unexpected contending season...The Cubs gave up a pretty good one for a guy who fires shots at his female companion closer in 2016.They could have had him for a fraction of the price before the season started.. Manny Machado changes your team for the better instantly. If you were an Oriole fan, would you really be happy with the return you mentioned for Manny Machado? Even with the premiums paid for relievers at the deadline, the Chapman return was a huge outlier. Did you see the JDM return? That dude should have commanded much more, but the market didn’t bare it. I’m not going to deny that as an Orioles fan I’d expect a better headliner than Cease in return for Machado, but I really don’t think they’ll get a blue chipper for him at this point. They can definitely wait until the deadline and hope it pays off, but that also comes with the risk of injury and ending up with a second round pick. Plus he’d be delaying the sale of his other assets, which just seems like a bad idea. Hahn had time on his side with Quintana, Duquette doesn’t really have that luxury. It’s either now or the the trade deadline and nothing is promised next July.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 14, 2017 -> 07:25 PM) Their best chance is with him on the team. It probably still isn't good enough but, if I were their GM, I am not taking back a half assed package back for him at this point. They need to admit that they are basically playing for 3rd place for the foreseeable future, but maybe if they kept him everything would go right and some how they make a run this year. If not, keep him until the deadline. A contender adding him then changes things, and even if it is for a couple of months, would be worth a top prospect if it got you where everyone wants to go. Right now, Cease, Dunning, Fulmer...those guys aren't game changers. They aren't going to make the Orioles Not be mediocre at best. So,e team will eventually give you a top prospect for him. I am actually amazed no team seems to have offered that yet if the new reports are true. Cease has TOR potential and Dunning & Fulmer are former 1st round picks with upside. Cease is probably in the 75 to 90 prospect range overall, Dunning in the 90 to 110 range, and Fulmer somewhere in the top 150. I’m not sure I’d pass on a Cease+Dunning offer if I was the Orioles and that was the best offer received right now. Trading Machado allows the rest of the dominoes to fall. The longer they wait, the less they’ll get for their other guys. I already asked this, but what team do you think will give up a top prospect for one year of Manny Machado?

QUOTE (soxforlife05 @ Dec 14, 2017 -> 07:08 PM) I thought more about this and I think I see what Hahn is trying to do now when he's talking about taking risk. It's probably Fulmer and Cease/Dunning thinking that they can recoup at least half that up to the equivalent amount of value at the trade deadline if they can't extend him. Meanwhile they get 6 months or so to try to get him to sign an extension. It's basically a free call option. And if they can't sign him before the trade deadline they now know they have to pursue a different path in the next offseason. As long as our best prospects aren't involved I don't see much problem with it if this is how he is looking at it. To be clear I don't think they will be able to extend him but you never know. Orioles have to get something for him since he will be gone either way. If they are that worried about us flipping him to the Yanks they should hold onto him until the trade deadline. That’s how I’m processing this all as well.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 14, 2017 -> 06:56 PM) They have some decent players. How does Avi, Fulmer, Cease make them playoff contenders in a couple of years? They are pretty much screwed right now. Their best chance at actually winning the next 5 years is keeping Machado this year, and hoping everything goes right. Once he is gone, so is all hope in Baltimore for a long while. Come on man, the Orioles aren’t making the playoffs this year with or without Machado. Their only choices are dealing him now for the best offer received or hope he can bring back more at the deadline. Either way, whatever they receive won’t put them back in the playoffs in a couple years. They f***ed themselves significantly by not selling a year or two ago.

QUOTE (fathom @ Dec 14, 2017 -> 06:40 PM) Many seem to have not read the article as Nightengale said there's no chance the Sox would actually give Manny a huge contract Come on man, are you really taking that as gospel? The Sox would NEVER leak that to Bob f***ing Nightengale if true. And no other team would have a clue on how much the Sox would really be willing to spend on Machado.

QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Dec 14, 2017 -> 06:31 PM) Because as the post right before yours explained: try and buy him for a dollar and sell him for two. Hahn is simply kicking the tires here. He'd be stupid/lazy and bad at his job if he didn't at least look into it. As for the TV analogy: I'd flip the TV for $600 tmr and double my money. That's what Hahn is trying to see if he can accomplish. I think poker is a better analogy. We’re the big stack at the table and the blinds are still low. We can play some hands we have no business playing and maybe get lucky and win a big pot. The fact we are deep in prospect currency allows us to throw a moderate offer the Orioles’ way and keep ourselves in the conversation. The odds may be low, but if no one comes in with a big offer then maybe our token package wins it. There’s most definitely a price that makes sense for us to acquire him now as long as the Sox are willing to commit $300M+ towards next offseason. If they aren’t willing to commit that much money then I’d say this is one of the dumbest ideas I have ever seen. I don’t really buy that part of Nightengale’s article though.

QUOTE (Soxbadger @ Dec 14, 2017 -> 06:26 PM) It makes sense if the Yankees went to Hahn and said "We want Machado but Orioles wont deal with us. Well give you A,B,C for him" and Hahn is now trying to get Machado cheaper than A,B,C. Hahn’s ability to do deals with other teams would be greatly tarnished if he did something like that. No way he’d ever do something so shady.

QUOTE (Sockin @ Dec 14, 2017 -> 06:16 PM) New Nightengale article says the Sox do NOT have nearly a strong of an offer that has been rumored. He says their offer does not include any top prospects and is based on the value that they would have him for one year. https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/c...rade/953798001/ But it also says it’s the strongest offer at the moment. Maybe Machado on a one year deal isn’t as valuable as we all think.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Dec 14, 2017 -> 06:09 PM) Of course. The best way to get Machado is to a) amass the most talent you can between now and then (instead of depleting it) and b) (dare I suggest) OFFER Him more money than the other suitors. I don’t think half this board gets this. What happens when three or four teams all have this “outbid everyone” strategy? I can promise you multiple teams will eventually end up offering the same general number. Machado’s decision will most definitely come down to non-financial considerations.

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Dec 14, 2017 -> 06:08 PM) I mean, we have absolutely zero idea what has been discussed, if the Sox are being used to drive up bargaining, which players were offered, how serious any of this is. Losing faith in the front office due to winter meeting speculation is laughable They don’t call him Jack “HoT TaKe” Parkman for nothing.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 14, 2017 -> 06:04 PM) I haven't seen anyone say this yet so I will - if RH does trade for Machado and the player leaves as a free agent, that would count in my eyes as his 6th "fireable offense". That's how big of a mistake that would be. What are the other five? James Shields is obviously one of them. What else are you including?

QUOTE (Jack Parkman @ Dec 14, 2017 -> 05:57 PM) One can only hope that Angelos and JR are good chums and Angelos saves JR from his own inept FO. Hearing what I have today, I have lost an incredible amount of faith in the FO to see the rebuild through and do it right. They are trying a shortcut. If they don't think they can compete with other markets for Machado's services on the open market, then they should cross him out as an option and move the f*** on to other options, because bringing him here, I'm 99% sure will change nothing. Lol...you don’t even know what we’re offering. And you’re acting like 6-7 WAR players grow on trees. We miss out on Machado our chances to add a legit superstar are greatly reduced. There’s a reason the front office is being proactive here and it’s not because they’re trying a shortcut.