Chicago White Sox

I don’t disagree with anything you say here. His ERA is certaintly better than it should be, but at the same time I think the quality of contact would suggest he may be outperforming his FIP to some extent. Ultimately I just don’t think his FIP after seven games is going to be predictive of his full season performance. I think his minor league peripherals are far better indicators of future performance even if you rightfully assume some level of haircut on them.

I agree with this. I love FIP & use it all the time (it really is one of my favorite stats), but it’s not perfect as it does not factor in a pitcher’s ability to induce weak contact. Given how accurate FIP is generally speaking, maybe that’s not a huge issue, but it definitely leaves open the possibility of outliers.

FIP & xFIP are predictors of ERA at current K, BB, & HR rates, but there is nothing to suggest Lopez’s FIP won’t improve as he continues to develop. Therefore, it’s a little misleading to say FIP is going to tell you what’s likely to happen for a 24 year old who is very likely to improve his K rate & command. Also missing from the FIP equation is the quality of contact and IMO teams haven’t really been able to square up on Lopez’s stuff. I think jumping to conclusions based on someone’s s FIP six weeks into the season is a poor way to evaluate a young player’s progress.

100% on this.

Gotcha, I guess for me the only thing that has radically changed for the worse is Giolito. I’m not writing him off yet, but do have huge concerns about him. I 100% understand being a little worried about Rodon, Hansen, & Burdi until they come back, but those aren’t long-term concerns for me until I know if for some reason they’ll never be the same. I never expected much from Fulmer, so that isn’t a big deal for me. I get where you are coming from, just don’t see the doom & gloom Jack sees.

What exactly looks bleak? Other than Giolito’s horrific start & the uncertainty over Hansen’s injury (and it sounds like he will be fine), everything is going well with our pitching prospects. I honestly think people are overreacting to a couple bad starts by Kopech.

Thank you, I can’t take this much unfounded pessimism.

Kopech is working on his change right now and from all reports it’s coming along fine. I have zero doubts he’ll be an effective ML starter. The only question with him is just how good. Where do you get the idea Dunning is throwing 90-92? Everything I’ve read is he’s typically around 93 and he’s known for having pinpoint command. He’s probably the second most likely guy to end up being a quality starter in our system after Kopech. And I have no idea how you could watch Lopez this year and see a 4 or 5 starter. Despite some command issues, he has flashed TOR potential. I swear if guys don’t come up and immediately dominate you think there is no room for growth. Your pessimism is really getting the best of you man.

I don’t think there is a single prep infielder in the top 15 prospects outside of maybe Gorman.

Isn’t it just Moncada?

Lol...he’s getting the full ensemble!

Ball game b****es!!!

3B ump definitely has dinner plans.

Ricky better not overmanage this. Let this ride or die with Bruce.

FIFY

I don’t think he went there, but whatever.

Agreed.

Bruce Rondon coming in for the save!?!

Awesome, thought this might happen after his last start.

Let’s get an insurance room here.

That’s good news! Shame he had to miss this series.

Call with a 2B, Adolfo with a BB, Sheets with a groundout.

That’s my single biggest concern with him. The stuff just continues to get worst & worst.

They’re keeping us in it, just got to hope the offense can get us a couple more.

100% agree. He clearly needs to regain some confidence.