Chicago White Sox

Cardinals closing in on an Ozuna trade. That should open up the Avi market quite a bit. Will be interesting to see the return to get a general sense of what Avi might bring back, even if he’s no doubt worth less.

QUOTE (fathom @ Dec 13, 2017 -> 12:18 PM) Or you are getting good value before Cease loses any chance to be considered a starter and Rutherford loses trade value if he continues his hitting struggles. Also don't know how Marlins feel about Blake as they have some former Yanks executives over there now The problem is the Sox just acquired these guys, they most certainly think they’re candidates to improve their value rather than regress.

To me, the Sox have four untouchable prospects at the moment in Jimenez, Kopech, Robert, & Hansen. After that, I’m open to exploring deals as long as I’m not completely exhausting my prospect depth. I still think it’s a year too early to cash in on our prospects though unless a deal is simply too good to pass up.

Going after a stopgap starter the caliber of Chavez tells me they expect Kopech to be up relatively quickly.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Dec 13, 2017 -> 11:57 AM) How can it be riskier if it's for significantly less money? Free agents fail all the time. The Adam Dunn signing wasn't risky either, was it? At least the young guy won't screw up your major league win/loss record if he craps out. The young guy has zero at-bats in the majors, while the veteran player is a proven superstar. $50M for a guy who has never accomplished anything is a huge risk. Sure, anything can happen, but risk is all about realizing a certain rate of return not about the absolute dollar amount of the investment. Robert has significantly more bust potential even if the downside risk is larger for Machado from a magnitude perspective.

QUOTE (Quin @ Dec 13, 2017 -> 11:27 AM) Even with extension, highest I would go would be... Anderson, Fulmer, Cease and Sheets. Based on Stanton's return I'd probably end up actually offering Avi, Fulmer, Dunning if we could convince Machado to man third. He's coming with a massive literal price tag. The first offer is way too much IMO. If you’re willing to give up that much, might as well go after Yelich even if the cost is a little more.

QUOTE (fathom @ Dec 13, 2017 -> 11:08 AM) Which makes the Machado and Harper free agencies unprecedented ARod got $250M like 16 years ago, accounting for inflation this is not unprecedented.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Dec 13, 2017 -> 10:59 AM) That's like saying your friend covered the table's bill at Chili's, so he definitely would do the same at Gibson's. The Sox spending $50 million on a very young international FA isn't all that comparable to a veteran FA who will cost $300+ million. You’re right, the amateur signing is far riskier and much more surprising.

Great write-up! I think Reyes is the only guy they consider if they go the positon player route and even that would be a surprise. I just don’t see us taking a catcher with the addition of Castillo and Collins & Zavala hopefully both in AA. I do think you’re spot on about potentially taking two arms though. As you pointed out we simply need more options to fill out a bullpen and 2018 would be the perfect year to give a couple not fully developed flame-throwers an extended opportunity with Cooper. And I really hope Burdi is one of those guys.

QUOTE (Lemon_44 @ Dec 13, 2017 -> 07:22 AM) I don't know but how many times do I have to read about WAR being the be all, end all to a players value? I don't get the dismay with Garcia. I've seen people wanting Delmonico playing rather than Avi. That's just wrong. Delmonico will never approach a year like Garcia just had and is not near the plyer. I heard Carlos Pena last night talking about Ozuna and how teams need to let players develop because he was sent down to the minors a couple years ago, made adjustments, and now is the most coveted available trade chip out there. I also heard a GM, think it was Shapiro, talking about a prospect comparing to a current player on their roster. He mentioned how the prospect was in the minors, while at the same age, the other guy was already in the league. Everybody is high on Eloy, and rightfully so, but at his age in high A and AA, Avi was already playing in the bigs. Now that Avi seems to have figured things out.....trade him. Makes zero sense to me. WAR isn’t the end-all-be-all, but completely ignoring is far worse. The same applies to all advanced metrics and the key is to take both what the numbers say on the page and what you see from watching the player actually play to put together a thorough evaluation. Unfortunately, what happens more often than not is people simply stat scout (I’m guilty of this myself at times) and ignore issues/outliers with certain stats. Having said all that, you’re much better stat scouting with advanced metrics than tradional ones. Based on your tone, I have feeling you’re of the tradional variety and think Avi is the bees’ knees because of his batting average & RBIs. And while those stats tell you some things, without looking at advanced metrics you’ll be missing a large part of the story.

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Dec 12, 2017 -> 08:50 PM) Lol it wouldn't be that simple. If teams could get a window, the price goes up. Other teams could beat that. How much is a team going to pay in prospects to then pay Machado market price? Obviously there’s value to having the negotiating window, just not sure what that price would be.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Dec 12, 2017 -> 08:48 PM) I’d do Cease and Dunning if I got the window. I could live with this and it fits the rumored “two controllable arms” asking price.

What’s the most everyone would give up in a Machado trade assuming a 72 negotiating window? I’d probably be willing to do something like Rutherford & Spencer Adams if I had to.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Dec 12, 2017 -> 08:09 PM) That is $56 million short. We came in second place though and might have gone higher, Boras just straight up hustled the Rangers.

I’ll say this, him losing this race will be an even bigger embarrassment for Republicans who supported this pervert/pedophile.

QUOTE (Tony @ Dec 12, 2017 -> 08:16 PM) 8:15pm CST, Jones has a 65% chance of working via NYT 77% now, 8:17 Of winning?

QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Dec 12, 2017 -> 08:03 PM) Cubs just signed Smyly to a two year deal. He'll miss the season after electing to have Tommy John. Cubs have a monopoly on injury ridden pitchers, good for them.

I really hope they snag Burdi with their first pick. Would be really cool to have both Burdi brothers in the same bullpen.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Dec 12, 2017 -> 11:06 AM) His current projections plug him in at 1.2 WAR/600, but that's also taking into account his previous replacement level seasons. Assuming the breakthrough was real, and I don't see much to think that it wasn't, there's no reason he couldn't be viewed or sold as a 2-2.5 WAR player moving forward. Over the next 4 years, that puts his value around $70 million for which he will probably be paid something like $24 mill ($500K 2018, $5.5 mill 2019, $8 mill 2020, $10 mill 2021), which provides $46 million of surplus value. A 55 FV prospect is worth about $40 million. I am admittedly grasping at straws here, but I don't see something along those lines as an impossibility, and if you acquire Frazier, then it opens the door for an Avisail Garcia trade immediately, even if you have to take a slight discount on his overall value. I came up with a very similar valuation for Sanchez, again which is contingent on believing Yolmer is a 2.5ish WAR player going forward. If you can get a 55 FV prospect for him I think you take the offer and run. I love me some Sanchez, but this early in the rebuild we should gambling on high ceiling players rather than floor.

QUOTE (cjgalloway @ Dec 12, 2017 -> 11:06 AM) I'd guess you'd get a Melky Cabrera sort of return. So yeah, B-, C Prosects 4 years of Sanchez >>>>>>>>>> 2 months of old ass Melky

QUOTE (SoxAce @ Dec 12, 2017 -> 10:49 AM) Sanchez might be a guy Hahn and company feel may be overvalued for what he brings. Dude is a fantastic locker room presence and obviously the glove is really good. I have no problem keeping him, just depends on what kind of return he can get you. Teams value versatility more than ever, so I feel like some of us may be surprised at what he could bring back in return.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 12, 2017 -> 10:39 AM) That would be fine, but what do you really think the Sox could get for Sanchez? I'm guessing nothing too interesting. Hard to say, but 2.5 WAR infielders until control for another four seasons that are fairly cheap and can play multiple positions should have some value. I don’t really see the Yankees being a team to ante up for a guy like Sanchez when they can probably find something for just money in free agency, but he’d really be a perfect fit for them.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 12, 2017 -> 10:39 AM) That would be fine, but what do you really think the Sox could get for Sanchez? I'm guessing nothing too interesting. Clint Frazier

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Dec 12, 2017 -> 10:18 AM) Chase Headley to Padres 2B & 3B are now open for them. Carlos Sanchez could make some sense for them if they don't feel comfortable going all in on Torres & Andujar next year.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 12, 2017 -> 09:54 AM) Well this was a generally quiet first day for everyone huh? I have a flight to Florida at 7:00pm so I fully expect something to happen right around then.