Chicago White Sox

And short of injury comes with a highly valuable compensation pick at the end (which is even more valuable for the Orioles given where it would slot).

It’s 100% why they keep him. But let’s not pretend money doesn’t matter to you guys…$12M on Bieber is $12M you can’t spend later without moving other stuff. Was literally watching Moneyball two nights ago and it was the scene where Beane has to beg the owner for like $250k so he can add a reliever at the trade deadline. Your ownership isn’t that pathetic, but clearly Angelos Junior is using your franchise as a source of income and isn’t going to go hog wild with spending mid-season.

You keeping saying Elias won’t trade Mayo. Since Elias has never come out and said this publicly, I am asking for an objective reason for why Mayo would be an untouchable for Cease. A bunch of qualitative talking points about talent, draft position, and character don’t support that statement. And sure, he may have a 4 win ceiling, but he also has a replacement level floor. What is the expected bust rate on a prospect like Mayo historically? What is a good 50th percentile projection for him over his control period? What is he intrinsically worth to the Orioles…that’s what I’m asking.

First off, it’s doubtful the Guardians just give him away. But more importantly, you’d be committing $12M in payroll to him and that could put your trust fund owner on the brink financially.

Nothing more productive in life than hopping on a message board to call out others for being unproductive

But why? Show me your math on how you got to this conclusion. What is the projected surplus value of Mayo vs. the projected surplus value of Cease?

Fully agree. Can’t go with two guys with 1B/DH risk.

What’s the biggest ever? The Eric Chavez thread or was it Machado?

This is called posturing. And I’m probably Mayo’s biggest fan on this board, but to say he plays a premium position is a pretty big leap.

This is what I’d also like to know. Obviously Holliday isn’t happening, but not sure I buy Mayo or Basallo being completely untouchable. I still think Cowser or Kjerstad is far more likely as the main piece, but I wouldn’t completely rule out a Mayo being made available, especially if it resulted in the rest of the package being reduced some.

At some point you move to a blind bid process and tell teams to present their best offers. Obviously we’re not there yet, but once that happens one potential buyer will usually go above the rest of the pack because they have no idea what they’re bidding against and don’t want to lose out on the prized asset. The key is to ensure there is enough known interest to keep bids honest. With the remaining options available being less than desirable, it seems we’re rapidly getting closer to that time. Fingers crossed, but so far Getz has managed this process well from what’s been made publicly available.

Exactly

Yup, this the reality teams with money and a need for a TOR starter face. You can spend $200M+ on Snell, $175M or so on Montgomery, or trade premium prospects for two years of Cease and likely a comp pick at the end. Those first two options are probably not very appetizing. And for teams without cash, it’s Cease or hope you can convince the Marlins to give up Luzardo (which sounds like it will be very challenging). Getz is is incredible spot…but he shouldn’t wait on Boras to find homes for Snell & Montgomery. IMO, now is the time to force teams to put their offers on the table.

He also perfected his slider that year and started to maximize its usage. You have to remember that his curveball was his big weapon in the minors and he gradually switched over to his slider being his out pitch. That took a few years, but eventually that slider got so nasty that it became the most valuable pitch in Statcast. I just think it’s silly to look at Cease’s performance prior to 2021 and draw any conclusions. Pitchers can materially change in an instance with small mechanical changes or repertoire adjustments and we saw that firsthand with Cease.

I’m just saying things, but if Getz is holding to three premium prospects and there is still this much interest I think our expectations should rise some.

What makes him a 1B type? Just his size? Kris Bryant is a 6’ 5”, 230 pound 3B / OF. Obviously Mayo isn’t that level of athlete, but we’re not talking about Andrew Vaughn here. The kid is fairly athletic and moves very well for his size and has a double plus arm. A 1B / DH caliber bat that clan play an average RF would be worth a ton. And I think Kjerstad has similar 1B risk as Mayo does.

I’m probably in the minority here, but I think he has the skillset to play RF and would potentially be better than Kjerstad out there due to his arm. It would be different if the alternative were a true up the middle prospect, but if I have the choice between those two I’m going with Mayo.

I think the price has risen to Mayo, Beavers, & McDermott.

I noticed that too…seems like many have him behind Anthony and even Teel in some cases

Yeah, this coming from Rosenthal makes a major difference. A week may be optimistic, but I do think real trade talks can happen concurrently with Boras managing the Snell & Montgomery markets.

It’s great for O’s fans like yourself & Frobby who value winning above all else…this should be a bit terrifying for your fans that prioritize prospect hugging

The Chuckster is an early fan favorite, but he just missed for me.

That Rosenthal article should make everyone here feel much better and Orioles fans feel very nervous.

Absolutely amazing news. There is still hope for a savage yet.