Chicago White Sox

I read teams have health concerns with Fairbanks over a nerve issue, which probably explains why other teams have prioritized non closers over him.

What OFs do you prefer in the event they trade Robert?

Ishbia just injected capital into the org to help pay off debt.

Sounds like the Sox are willing to eat half of Robert’s salary per Wittenmyer. If so, how would you feel about this series of moves: CF Luis Robert + $10M cash for RHP Chase Petty and 2026 Comp B pick Sign RHP Pete Fairbanks to 2/$18M contract Sign OF Max Kepler to 1/$8M contract Should put the total roster right around $90M in payroll and would leave you with this: Lineup : Meidroth, 2B Teel, CA* Montgomery, SS* Vargas, 3B Murakami, 1B* Quero, DH# Kepler, RF* Benintendi, LF* Baldwin, CF# Bench: BC: Lee IF: Sosa OF: Pereira OF: Hill Rotation: Smith Martin Kay* Burke Petty Bullpen: CL: Fairbanks SU: Taylor SU: Leasure MR: Vasil MR: Newcomb* MR: Alberto MR: Gilbert* LR: Paez

We have no idea that they last money lost year. They purposely cut payroll to an all time low since 2001 (inflation adjusted) to accommodate most of these factors. They may have lost some money, but no way to know for sure or to what extent.

He generated a ton of ground balls last year as he changed his pitch mix and added cutter and greatly increased his sinker usage.

What free agent OFs do you prefer?

Who dis guy?

Quero traded?

I’m certain they would have called down their payroll last year given the lack of a TV deal. I don’t disagree with you that they usually last year’s revenue as the starting point for the following season, but it’s not one for one and last year was a very unique situation. As such, any full season TV deal this year is going to be better than last year’s contribution.

I do get the vibe the Sox are eager to move Robert. The Reds seem far more likely to me than the Mets at the moment because Cincinnati is going to have to take on some trade risk to land potential impact talent. I do kind of like the idea of Robert & cash for Petty and their Comp B pick. Maybe that’s too much of a return, but I’d love to have Bannister get his hands on Petty while adding another $1M or so to our total draft pool next year.

Why?

If we want to trade Robert and redeploy those dollars elsewhere, that’s a totally different matter. I’m just saying I very much doubt that we’d need to move him to afford Murakami’s salary. And yes, I have us right around $84M right now, so another $6M or so to work with to get to that floor.

$90M is super low is my point. I feel very confident that last year was the worst case scenario in terms of payroll given the recent losses and lack of a TV deal to enter the season. And last year we were at about $80M. I think the plan was always to go up some this year without taking on huge long-term dollars. I feel good about the $90M figure being a reasonable, but still conservative figure that protects Jerry’s bottom line in a rebuild year.

Why do you think he’s going to turn into a pumpkin?

I have no idea where you guys come up with this stuff. Getz literally listed off like four or five needs at the Winter Meetings and said they were focused on addressing them via free agency. A $90M payroll is literally nothing. We were spending that much or more every single year since winning the World Series outside of 2018 (peak of previous rebuild). And even then, our 2018 payroll would be over $90M in current dollars. Point is there is zero reason to think we are going to be below $90M in payroll. I get we have accumulated losses in recent years per Forbes, but we also had gains during the past rebuild and brought on the Ishbia’s to a greater capacity to help address their debt. No way the payroll is going down or staying flat vs. last year after finally getting a TV deal in place and having some second half momentum, which means any minimum floor should somewhere above $80M and a realistic one would be closer to $90M.

I could see them wanting to move on from Robert if they believe he’s unable to stay healthy, but I don’t think they need to shed his salary to fit Murakami into the budget.

Why?

Schultz as a 50 FV prospect is something. Fully disagree on that. And Paez as our #8 prospect over numerous guys is also something.

You think a dude who posted a 4.25 FIP over hist last 18 starts as a rookie has a ceiling of a “#4 starter”. Like what are we even doing here.

When did he average 3.2 IP per start? Like where are these made up numbers coming from?

Ranked 81 out of 87 for what? Full year FIP? No one is arguing his full year figures were good last year…they were clearly compromised by his first 10 starts when he had a K rate of 6.19 per 9 innings. Based on his minor track record and his first cup of coffee in the majors to end 2024, I don’t find those results to be meaningful at all in terms of projecting future performance. I think he’s much closer to the guy who posted a 4.25 FIP over his next 18 starts and that player does not in fact “stink” vs. other major leaguers. And again, you are attributing all his improvement in swinging strike rate to one start when again that is not true. He was at 9.8% prior to July 12th and had an 11.8% over his final 10 starts. Back out one the one start and he was still at 10.8% over the other nine, which is still meaningful improvement. And why is sequencing just “noise” and not something that can be improved through strategic planning?

He struck out 9 or more batters per 9 innings in nine of 10 starts. He struck out over 11 batters per nine in half of them. This is not one game radically changing the outcome here. Take that game out altogether and he drops from 1st overall to 9th in this period, so still very much elite. You continue to use facts disingenuously and hope people are too lazy to fact check you. I still want to know what caused his K rate to nearly double from his first 10 starts to his 10 starts. If it can’t be improvement or development, then what was it? And how often do random dudes luck into a 12+ K rate per 9 over any random 10 start sample? Show me all the outliers because I didn’t see a single one in the data set I referenced, but sounds like you feel this is commonplace and should be able to easily identify dozens of instances like this.

Again, we are talking about ceiling here…not median outcome. I’d maintain his mostly likely outcome is a solid #4 starter. That being said, he pitched like a #3 starter over his final 18 starts. He posted an elite K rate over his final 10. If he could improve his control while maintaining that K rate, then we’re talking about a legit TOR starter. Do I think that will happen? No I don’t, but the fact he was able to strikeout guys at such a rate implies a higher ceiling than people are letting on.

Yes, which is why his FIP during that stretch was that of a #3 caliber SP and not that of an ace. That being said, I have never argued he performed like a TOR starter or will ever become one. My arguments have been consistent no matter how many times people try to “gotcha” me or move the goalposts: He doesn’t “stink” He pitched better as the season progressed He has a much higher ceiling than people are letting on as evident by his elite K rate in final 10 starts Which of those three points do you disagree with?