Chicago White Sox

Here are my thoughts: Hitters: 1B: Abreu (3.5 | 7.0) - OVER 2B: Madrigal (2.5 | 0.5*) - EVEN SS: Anderson (5.0 | 5.7) - OVER 3B: Moncada (5.0 | 5.6) - OVER LF: Vaughn (2.5 | NA) - OVER CF: Garcia (-1.5 | 1.2) - OVER RF: Eaton (3.0 | 5.9) - UNDER DH: Mercedes (5.5 | NA) - UNDER CA: Grandal (2.5 | 5.8) - OVER BC: Collins (2.0 | -0.3) - EVEN Honestly, I think the bulk of these guys will outperform their straight-line estimates, even if just slightly. Several of them got off to slow starts or dealt with injuries. Vaughn should continue to grow. Leury can’t be as bad as he’s been. To me, the only clear regression candidate is Yermin although I’m skeptical Adam will be able to stay healthy over the course of the season. I’m probably on the optimistic side with Collins, but I’ve always been a fan and he should get enough playing time to hit two wins if used primarily against RHP. Pitchers: SP1: Giolito (2.0 | 5.4) - OVER SP2: Keuchel (1.5 | 5.7) - OVER SP3: Lynn (5.0 | 6.7) - EVEN SP4: Cease (4.5 | 1.5*) - EVEN SP5: Rodon (6.5 | 2.7) - UNDER SP6: Kopech (4.5 | NA) - OVER CL: Hendriks (0.0 | 3.8) - OVER SU1: Bummer (1.5 | 1.3) - OVER SU2: Heuer (1.0 | 1.4) - OVER SU3: Crochet (1.0 | 2.0*) - OVER Without question Giolito will blow past that 2 win projection out of the water. Keuchel should be good for at least 2 wins if he stays healthy. I seriously doubt Rodon will remain the best pitcher on the planet for the remainder of the season, so there should be some regression there. I do think Lynn & Cease will hit their win projections. As for the bullpen, I think they all exceed their straight-line numbers. Hendriks in particular will be better and is clearly the victim of flukey HR luck, but I think all of the big four relievers will outperform their projections. What’s crazy is as good as this team has been, I think overall it should probably be better going forward health permitting.

Having played ~20% of our total games this year, I figured it would be a cool exercise to see what full season pace that would put them at for fWAR and debate who we think will over or under deliver on those numbers. For each player, the number to the left of the pipe will represent their current straight-line fWAR projection and the number to the right will represent their career high. For 2020 I will simply use a 2.7 multiplier to project what a full year figure would have been. I did make a couple exceptions for rookies who came up mid year which are marked by an asterisk. Hitters: 1B: Abreu (3.5 | 7.0) 2B: Madrigal (2.5 | 0.5*) SS: Anderson (5.0 | 5.7) 3B: Moncada (5.0 | 5.6) LF: Vaughn (2.5 | NA) CF: Garcia (-1.5 | 1.2) RF: Eaton (3.0 | 5.9) DH: Mercedes (5.5 | NA) CA: Grandal (2.5 | 5.8) BC: Collins (2.0 | -0.3) Pitchers: SP1: Giolito (2.0 | 5.4) SP2: Keuchel (1.5 | 5.7) SP3: Lynn (5.0 | 6.7) SP4: Cease (4.5 | 1.5*) SP5: Rodon (6.5 | 2.7) SP6: Kopech (4.5 | NA) CL: Hendriks (0.0 | 3.8) SU1: Bummer (1.5 | 1.3) SU2: Heuer (1.0 | 1.4) SU3: Crochet (1.0 | 2.0*)

Awesome fucking win!

Oh shit Ruiz just aced Cruz

Sox showing that killer instinct tonight and I’m loving it

Lol...fuck you Twins

I’m a huge Yasmani fan, but good god is the dude a slow ass motherfucker.

I’ll happily take two...thanks Pito!!!

Bullshit call there

Sox need to get one here.

Last I checked Tyler Johnson’s ERA was like 11.00, so probably Burdi by default.

6th inning...not allowed to bring anyone else in

Honestly, knock on wood, but if the rotation stays healthy we can probably splurge on a pretty damn good reliever at the deadline.

Yup, definitely the optimal time to use him given his proficiency in the field.

It’s definitely strange, but why activate him if not healthy?

That’s why I don’t get the criticism for Dylan this year when he’s off. Last year when he was off he was missing the zone by 12 inches and could get a strikeout to save his life. And he was off most of the time. This year he’s missing by much less and can actually get some whiffs. It’s night and day how much he’s improved under Katz.

James was loosely speculating that maybe he was involved in trade talks.

Thick Dick Nick!! Why not just get him that win right now?

How come every time I put the game on Leury is up to bat?

That shit was nasty

Just a reminder, but this is Dylan’s 33rd start. He basically has one years worth starts. He has also shown massive improvement vs. last year which is evident by a massive reduction in FIP (3.28 vs. 6.36), O-Zone swing % (31.4% vs. 22.2%), K % (32.0% vs. 17.3%), & Hard Hit Rate (32.9% vs. 40.9%). All in, he’s gone from being in the 5th percentile for xwOBA to the 74th heading into tonight. While he’s still a work in progress, both the stuff and command look way better than last year. Anyone suggesting he’s bad or will lose his job to Kopech soon simply doesn’t get that it takes time for young pitching to develop. To me, he looks like he can develop into a high end #3 starter with the upside for more. Let’s try not to overreact every bad inning or start while he’s on his way of getting there.

Golden Doodles?

Nashville is a no-brainer

If Kopech eventually joins the rotation and can maintain any semblance of his current form then no idea how it’s not him. He’s pitching like a legit ace right now, just in small bursts. That could change in the second half of the season and he will deserve to be rewarded for it.

This should easily win post of the year, although to appreciate it means you spend far too much time on Soxtalk...lol