Chicago White Sox

You’re betting against your own team?

It’s a pretty wild thought and too bad it didn’t happen.

Alright boys, today is game two of a three parter at Wrigley. The Sox absolutely demolished the Cubs in the series opener last night, winning by a score of 10-1 thanks to a strong outing from Dallas Keuchel and six bombs that travelled a combined 2,547 feet. The Sox have now won six straight and sit just one game back of the Twins for the division lead. This team is on fire but far bigger challenges await these next two games. One of those challenges will be Kyle Hendricks, who makes the start for the Cubs today. Kyle is off to an excellent start this season with a 3-2 record and a 2.71 FIP while generating lots of weak contact via his sinker / changeup heavy approach and pinpoint command of the strike zone. Hendricks has faced the Sox seven times in his career and despite a 1-3 record he’s actually been pretty good against us posting a better than career average FIP (3.26) & strikeout rate (8.5/9). That being said, rosters obviously change over time and only two members of our current team have more than 10+ plate appearances against him in Jose & Tim. Both have been awesome against Hendricks posting OPS’s of 1.134 & .900 respectively. If the offense can just avoid chasing Hendricks’ curves & changeups outside of the strike zone, they’ll hopefully see more 87 MPH four seamers in the zone and have a chance to score more runs than expected today. As for the Sox, we’ll be rolling with Reynaldo Lopez today fresh off the IL. I’ll be honest, I was a huge fan of his when he was first acquired in the Eaton trade and would love to put a positive spin on what he might offer today, but he has simply failed to show much development under Cooper. Despite elite velocity, Reynaldo has struggled due to inconsistent / poor spin on his four seamer and an inability to command his secondary pitches. That being said, occasionally it all clicks and he’s able to dominate like he did against the Cubs back in 2018. And if nothing else works, at least we have StatCast’s “similar pitchers” to dream on! Let’s fucking go boys!!!!!!!

Maybe $15M is too rich, but no way he’s getting that little after one bad season unless there is some massive injury I’m completely unaware of.

Gotta disagree with you. He put up a wRC+ of ~127 over the 2018 & 2019 seasons and was worth nearly 6 fWAR. I know he’s more or less useless against LHP, but given our roster construction I’m not sure why that’s a big deal. What are you thinking then for RF then? Outside of Springer, the market isn’t really loaded with OF talent and I don’t see us paying up for him. Obviously there could be a lot of trade options though. Be curious to hear your thoughts.

We have nine players under contract next year for $82M. That include six everyday regulars, one starter, one reliever, and a bench guy in Leary. Vaughn, Madrigal, Cease, Dunning, & Kopech are all pre-arb and will likely cost around $3M. For the bench, Collins & Mendick are both pre-arb so add another $1M. Bullpen wise, Burdi, Heuer, Foster, & Cordero are pre-arb, so assuming of three of them make it let’s add another $2M. So that’s 18 to 19 roster spots locked down for a total cost of ~$88M. Giolito will probably get around $5M in arbitration, Marshall round $2M, Engel around $1.5M, Lopez around $3M, and Rodon (assuming we keep him over Fry for the bullpen) around $5M. Add up everything and that’s basically 23 to 24 roster spots for a grand total of $105M. There is no doubt in my mind that we should be able to support a $140M payroll next year short of any COVID related concerns. For one, a league average payroll is around $130M right now and worst case scenario we should be considered an upper mid market team revenue wise. Two, we’ve been at the $120M level in the past despite huge new national TV deals adding additional revenue. Third, we should have hopefully make the playoffs and see some financial benefit from that. Fourth, we’ve rocked incredibly low payrolls for a multi-year stretch and should theoretically see that reinvested in the team. Again, outside of COVID we should be able to do $140M in 2021. If that’s the case, we have ~$35M to upgrade the rotation and RF. With a strong possibility of us signing blue chip prospect Yoelkis Cespedes (or Oscar Colas), I don’t think we need an expensive long-term addition for RF. If I were our GM, I’d immediately go to Joc Pederson and try to get him to sign a pillow contract (1/$15M) due to what will likely be a poor 2020 season, selling him on being part of an explosive offense next year in a great hitter’s park that should help pad his stats for what should be a better player’s market in 2022. If I couldn’t convince Uncle Jerry to pony up for Bauer on a one year deal for like $30M (pushing us beyond a $140M payroll target), I’d simply go hard after Marcus Stroman and try to get him in the fold for something like 4/$80M. Assuming those additions, we’d be looking at the following roster at a total cost of $140M: Anderson, SS Moncada, 3B# Abreu, 1B/DH Jimenez, LF Grandal, C# Robert, CF Vaughn, DH/1B Pederson, RF* Madrigal, 2B IF: Mendick OF: Engel UT: Garcia# BC: Collins* Giolito Stroman Cease Keuchel* Dunning Kopech CL: Burdi SU: Bummer* SU: Heuer MR: Lopez MR: Rodon* MR: Foster MR. Marshall MR: Cordero Print those 2021 playoff tickets now because that roster is fucking stacked!

2022 Lineup: Anderson, SS Moncada, 3B# Vaughn, 1B Jiménez, LF Robert, CF Grandal, C# Abreu, DH Cespedes, RF Madrigal, 2B

Puig is not the answer. This offense is rolling right now and there is no need to introduce that cancer into the mix. Plus he had COVID so who knows what kind of physical shape he’s in as some guys have claimed they’ve had lingering issues affect their performance this year.

POTY

Unless Lopez has a strong run here, I think he gets moved to the bullpen next year. As for Rodon, he’s shown zero ability to stay healthy as a starter and I think he either gets moved to the bullpen as well or simply gets non-tendered. To me, I’d like to see if he can become a Pomeranz type weapon coming out the bullpen for two inning stints every few days. Hell, I’d probably move him there this season whenever he’s healthy again since with Lopez back & Dunning waiting in the wings we now have six starters.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not optimistic we’ll be the team to land him, but when I look at our team needs, our payroll flexibility, and the fact (to your point) Bauer has expressed a willingness to do short-term deals I do think there’s a chance just like there was one with Wheeler. I also think playing for the Sox in 2021 & forward will be very attractive because there is a great young core in place. All that being said, Stroman would be a great backup plan given he’s a sinker-baller type pitcher who would play well in a HR heavy park and behind a strong infield defense.

They probably hold Kopech down for a month or so given he hasn’t pitched in a real game in like three years and if by then we have no injuries I view this as a good problem to have. Teams like the Dodgers never worry about having too many good starters because shit can happen.

We have like $40M in expiring contracts and very few needs. Even if Reinsdorf goes cheap, we should be able to address the rotation & RF.

Ugly night for Tim, but nothing to worry about

It’s honestly been a perfect game

Maybe when Grandal’s contract expires, until then let’s use human judgment

Lol...that could be it!

I may be drunk, but whoever said the Sox’s jerseys had a blue tint tonight may have been right

Ricky better bench the next guy to hit a HR!

Not sure if I hate you or love you for posting this

How in the world would we know if his bunt was about Keuchel being on the Astros?

Lol...amazing

I’m pretty sure he grabbed Rizzo’s junk after that bunt attempt so I don’t think so

Apparently the mercy rule is in effect