Chicago White Sox

You’re probably right, but I’ve got a little more optimism after the Wheeler offer.

They did offer Wheeler a fairly sizable contract.

Right now!

That was actually said with you in mind, but I do disagree that lineup optimization doesn’t matter. I personally believe that context matters and bad decision-making can add up more than you’d think over the course of a season.

I’m actually ok with resting Moncada tonight, but I definitely would have started McCann tonight and Grandal games two & three. People can hate on me if they want or say it doesn’t really matter, but Ricky is terrible when it comes to optimizing his lineup for specific matchups.

Lol...why do we care about Collins’ perspective?

Because McCann is free agent after this season and will actually have a say on how much playing time he’d like to receive? Plus what team has ever committed $28M+ to two catchers? With McCann’s lower salary this year plus the core still being really cheap it works for now, but long-term we’ll need those funds used elsewhere.

Hopefully Yoeklis Cespedes by 2022, but if not they need to find a long-term solution. I think the Sox probably went the cheap route with Mazara in hopes that one of the Basabe, Adolfo, Rutherford, etc. would break out and present themselves as an option by 2022. With COVID halting minor league seasons and the rest of the core looking ready to go, they can’t wait on those guys any longer. They need a long-term solve and short a potential prospect like Cespedes, said player will need to come from outside the organization.

Just saw this, but thank you!

The difference is Grandal has put up 25 fWAR over the past five years while Mazara has put up less than 2. One deserves the benefit of the doubt, while the other clearly doesn’t.

Where does the rotation rank?

CERA is great in theory, but you’d need a large sample for it to have any merit and would also have to normalize it for so many factors that it’s nothing more than an interesting reference point IMO.

No stat is perfect for valuing catchers, but using a stat that completely ignores pitch framing (all else being equal) is just dumb. By using bWAR, you are basically saying all the value Grandal provides as a framer is meaningless.

Alright boys, tonight the Sox begin an epic three game series against the Cubs at Wrigley. The Sox are currently on a five game win streak, coming off a dominating four game sweep of the Tigers. Meanwhile, the Cubs are 5-5 over their last ten after an 11-3 start to the season. Momentum should be in our favor, but we’ll facing the Cubs’ top three starters this weekend, so no doubt we got a real challenge ahead of ourselves. Kicking off the series for the Cubs will be 36 year old Jon Lester. A legit former #1 starter, Lester has really started to age out over the last couple years and is now more of a middle-of-the-rotation type type guy. His average four seam velocity has dropped below 90 MPH, which has caused him to leverage his cutter far more often than in years past. As you’ll see in the StatCast info below, he’s really struggling to generate whiffs this year and it appears an inability to locate his curveball is a big part of the problem. Despite a nice looking ERA, we may be catching him at just the right time as his peripherals scream of a guy ready to be lit up by an offense as dangerous as ours. In terms of how our hitters have faced against Lester, six players have 10+ plate appearances against him and of those Abreu, McCann, Yoan, & Edwin have all been good to great while Timmy and in particular Grandal have really struggled. With Yasmani still dealing with back issues, giving McCann the start at catcher is a no-brainer. I really like our chances tonight if Robert is back in CF and we rock the right lineup (no Grandal or Mazara preferably). For the Sox, we’ll have Dallas Keuchel going. He sits at 3-2 with a 3.58 FIP on the season. The big thing that stands out for Dallas this year is his K rate being down substantially, currently sitting at 4.91 / 9 vs. normally operating in the 7 / 9 range. He still seems to be generating a normal amount of whiffs (thanks to a big increase in his change-up usage), so hopefully this just a SSS bias and not a sign of things to come. The good news is he continues to generate a lot of ground-balls and weak contact (despite a massive reduction in the use of his sinker) and has averaged nearly six innings a start this year. While the Cubs have a scary offense, two of their main right-handers are struggling in Bryant & Báez, and Dallas has been very good in his career against lefties. Hopefully that gives us an edge vs. a lineup that includes Rizzo, Schwarber, Kipnis, Heyward, & Happ. With Hendricks & Darvish starting the next two games, winning tonight becomes of the utmost importance. Hopefully we get the offense we saw against Detroit and not the one vs. St. Louis, as we’ll need our bats to be locked & loaded this weekend. Let’s fucking go boys!!!!!!

McCann’s xwOBACON is .499 on the season, which means his quality of contact has been fantastic. Obviously that’s not sustainable, but I truly believe he’s developed into a slightly better than league average hitter, which is a great for a catcher. Despite poor framing numbers, he deserves to be a starting catcher somewhere and will almost certainly get that opportunity. I see no way in hell the Sox commit $28M to $30M to their catching spots when they have bigger fish to fry. And I know I’m in the minority, but Collins is good enough behind the plate to start 40 to 50 games for us next year. We brought on Grandal to be a horse behind the plate and that’s what he should he be going forward. I really appreciate McCann for what he’s become, but I don’t see any chance of him returning to the Sox next year.

Who you benching to DH him next year, Abreu or Vaughn?

Unless the rules have changed, B tier free agents don’t typically turn the QO as it’s a ton of money and opposing teams usually won’t give up a high pick for them.

I went back & forth on Castellanos, just due to the defense, but with him right now our offense would be insane.

IMO, we need two main things this offseason, with those being a legit TOR starter to pair with Giolito and an upgrade in RF. After that, we could always use more bullpen help, but that may end up being a less critical need if Heuer, Burdi, & Foster are the real deal and if Lopez & Rodon can be repurposed to the pen. And as I mentioned before, if you believe we’re getting Yoeklis Cespedes then we may just need a one year stop-gap for RF. Perhaps Pederson would consider a pillow contract given his slow start and poor market conditions. Regardless, the bulk of our resources should go towards landing that TOR starter. Maybe Bauer is open to one year deals like he’s hinted at in the past and we can sign him or maybe we can absorb a contract from a team that is hurting financially, but either way our resources should go towards getting that pitcher.

Colome, Cishek, EE, Mazara, McCann, & Gio make a combined $42M. That’s a ton of money freed up and given what could be a team friendly market we could be serious players in free agency.

There is zero chance McCann is turning down 1/$18M offer in a normal environment, let alone what will likely be a depressed free agent market due to COVID.

You really want to commit $36M to our catchers next year, because I can promise you McCann would not say no to a QO.

And yet you cite a legitimately flawed stat for catchers ?

I mostly agree with this. I do think McCann’s game calling might provide some value over Grandal’s, but I don’t think it’s that significant and over I’d expect the gap to narrow.

Last I knew bWAR didn’t account for pitch framing and would be completed useless in evaluating catchers, especially one like Grandal who excels in framing.