Eminor3rd

QUOTE (TheFutureIsNear @ Nov 25, 2014 -> 12:41 PM) My summary of your post after reading it...This is my opinion. It's fact. Deal with it. Its not the same scenario, but the Cardinals let arguably the best hitter of the generation walk for nothing and have continued to have success since. Its perfect proof that there is no 1 player that is more valuable than good organizational depth. The Cardinals realized they could replace Pujols with 3-4 players at the same $ amount and actually be better off. If you wouldn't trade 1 SP for 3 everyday regular players + 2 very good young arms you're crazy. All there is to it. If you were arguing that you didn't like certain things about the individual prospects it would be 1 thing, but the idea that there is no package that could replace Chris Sale's value is ludicrous at best. The key differences are that (a) the Cardinals were already a great team, looking for the best way to stay great, and (b) Pujols was a pending free agent, not a 25 year old star signed for nothing for six year. If Sale was 30 and a free agent, this would be a completely different discussion. Likewise, if the Cardinals were rebuilding and Pujols was 25, they wouldn't have moved him.

QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Nov 25, 2014 -> 12:16 PM) Wrong, option B is how you end up like the Royals of the 90's, having a couple stars but not having enough depth to ever make a run. Thats the option where you get to see players like Chris Sale win championships in other cities while you remenice on his time as a White Sox and how he should have won Cy Youngs, but couldn't win enough games because of the talent around him. In option "A" you move one of those players and supplement the other stars that remain with above replacement level players, if some reach star status that is icing on the cake. The teams in the WS this year are great examples, neither could be considered to have more than a couple of star players (especially with Cain out), but are solid enough all around that they make up for it. Obviously Sale and Abreu are off the table, but a Q trade could fill a lot of holes and provide enough upgrades that the Sox can contend next season and each of the years that they still have Sale under contract. This stuff below: QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Nov 25, 2014 -> 12:28 PM) I don't think that's wrong at all. The Royals, unlike the White Sox, were unwilling to spend money to fill those other holes and also made some god awful trades during that time frame. I have no problem trading Chris Sale and/or Jose Quintana after the 2017 season if the Sox have shown no signs of competitiveness, because that leaves them with something like 2-3 years of control each, which is still incredibly valuable, and gives the Sox another 3 years with the current team. If that's not enough time, it was never going to happen. However, if you fill the major holes in the lineup with either guys that are currently here or guys from outside the organization - the areas that could use upgrades from last year are C, 2B, LF, RF, DH, SP, SP, SP, and we'll just say bullpen in general - then the Sox are looking fine. That's easy to say, but you can also look at a few of those holes and pencil in upgrades - 2B is Semien, RF is Garcia, DH is LaRoche, one of the SP is Rodon, one of the relievers is Duke, one of the relievers may be Webb - and it's starting to look a lot better fairly quickly. There's no rush to trade these guys off. Yeah, if someone makes an absurd offer for Quintana, you take it, but nobody's going to do that. QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Nov 25, 2014 -> 12:37 PM) The Royals never made any attempt to keep any of their stars, and repeatedly traded them off until it became an absurd joke. They had no depth because they kept planning for everybody to be stars at the same time, and as wite said they never spent money to fill the holes. Option B only fails if you refuse to add to your $40m payroll. I am not advocating that we should freeze the roster as it is for five years and see if it wins.

QUOTE (Lillian @ Nov 25, 2014 -> 12:36 PM) Your sarcasm aside, no I haven't. I wasn't being sarcastic, I feel like I've read posts from you where you illustrate that there aren't any strong left-handed starters in the Central, except for ours.

QUOTE (Lillian @ Nov 25, 2014 -> 11:00 AM) Would someone please provide a list of the good Left Handed starters in our Division? Without compiling such a list, my impression is that most of the good southpaws are on the Sox. Therefore, I still think we could use one more middle of the order type left handed bat. Ethier is still my favorite candidate, as he absolutely rakes vs RHP. I'd love to see him sit on days that a southpaw is starting for the other team, and have him available to pinch hit against a tough RH reliever, in the late innings. At any rate, if someone can provide that information, I'd be grateful. While you're at it, if you can list how many good LH relief pitchers there are, that would be interesting as well. Off hand, I would guess that the number of both LH starters and relievers, is very small. I think you've made that list for us several times.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Nov 25, 2014 -> 11:47 AM) I'm sorry, but I have to disagree with you here. There is not "one" blueprint. There may be "a" blueprint which has worked recently, but that doesn't make it "the" blueprint. The name of the game is to win the World Series. The name of the game is to build sustained success. While I concede that having players like Sale and Quintana signed to the contracts that they are has extreme value, it has little value if the rest of the roster isn't strong enough to leverage that value into sustained success (as another poster also mentioned). No one is going to disagree with you about Sale and Q being incredibly valuable. But their value is limited by the talent of the whole. While we are moving in the right direction, the talent of the whole still remains our problem here. If we could acquire other players to increase the value of the whole beyond what it would reasonably be with Sale or Q, that is something that needs to be explored. If we could bring back other versions of Sale or Q, that is something that needs to be explored. We can sit and drool over the excess value we're getting from guys like Sale and Q until we've worked ourselves into a frenzy, but it doesn't win us anything. I recognize that the odds of replacing the excess value Sale or Q bring by trading them may be unlikely - and that should be factored into the decision to trade them - but you simply cannot tell me that there is no trade of these players that could make sense for us, because it simply is not true. Ok so our current situations is this: we have a handful of star-level players who are controllable and cheap. We can either (a) get rid of them for different players who are controllable and cheap and hopefully will reach star-level or (b) leverage the advantage that those players give us and actually try to win a World Series. If your goal is to win a WS, option B is the only option. Option A is a perpetual cycle of "maybe next year." My point is NOT that you can win by ONLY acquiring assets with surplus value. That's impossible. My point IS that trading Sale or Quintana at this point is a characteristic of option A. There is a point where Sale and Quintana should be traded. That point is somewhere around 2018 in the instance that those players may no longer fit into the plan for the next five years because they are older/less effective/no longer in possession of several years of below-market control. We are ONE year into this current cycle of Hahn building a perpetual winner. We must stay the course. There is no realistic package that we can get for Chris Sale that will bring us closer to the WS than keeping Chris Sale, and we have not given this core a chance to win. It is not time to tear it down.

QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Nov 25, 2014 -> 10:45 AM) It does the Sox no good to have two really good starters signed to good contracts if the roster is not in a position to compete. If you have the opportunity to plug multiple roster holes at the same time and put the team into a place where it can contend, you absolutely must do it. Your window with Sale and Q is until 2019, and after that they will move on to a more competitive team with a larger payroll and all you will get in return is a draft pick. I don't think Sale can be traded as there isn't a way for a team to match his value, but the Sox need to think really hard about trading Q to help put the entire roster in a better position to compete in the window that Sale is still here. So when do you decide you're in a good position to compete? What does that actually look like? Collecting 25 year old superstars signed to laughably below market extensions IS rebuilding. That's the blueprint! We're one year into a rebuild, and you want to tear it down and rebuild? Do people still actually believe that you can get a whole team of prospects to show up at the exact same time and be a winner? There is no team in the league, at any given time, that cannot expect to compete within five years.

QUOTE (pittshoganerkoff @ Nov 25, 2014 -> 10:29 AM) I didn't want to start a new thread, so I figured this might be the best one to post in. The winter meetings are coming up quickly, and the Sox will surely be busy. They've already made a couple decent moves by filling two important holes. One could argue (rightfully so) that Duke and LaRoche don't completely fill those holes, though. Obviously the bullpen needs more, and we'd all like to see one more LH bat. I get concerned, though, when I see a team like the Red Sox make two huge moves in one day, signing two of the more coveted free agents...two free agents that the White Sox have been linked to in some fashion. Now, I think we can all agree that spending $100 million on Sandoval is an overpay, and we're glad our Sox didn't make that move. But, I'm still concerned because I just don't see the White Sox making that one BIG move that gets the attention of the baseball world. I don't care what ESPN thinks; they'll be wetting themselves over the BoSox's new acqusitions for quite a while. But what about getting the attention of other teams? Will the White Sox be making any moves between now and spring training that will make them true contenders for 2015? I could possibly see the Sox signing Melky, but that seems a little less likely after the signing of LaRoche. There is still the possibility of Alexei being traded in a move that brings Kemp or Ethier to the Sox. That could be big, but it still lacks what the Sox will need to be truly considered contenders. I guess what I'm getting at is, what moves will get the Sox over the hump for 2015? I'd love to see the Sox shock the baseball world and sign Scherzer. Then have them make a trade that sends Danks' bloated contract somewhere in return for an outfielder. There are a few free agents that could help the Sox right now, but with the Ramirez and Sandoval signings, there's no doubt that the quality free agents are going to cost a lot. There are trade opportunities that could help the Sox right now, but to get what we'd really want it would take Quintana. Do the White Sox have a hope, a prayer, a chance to compete in 2015 without blowing up the budget and/or trading some young, cost-controlled talent? I want to say yes, but I get more concerned each day. The "biggest" remaining acquisition has to come via trade now, IMO. The problem with free agency is that you, by definition, pay market rate for your improvements. You cannot afford market rate for 5 or 6 improvements, unfortunately. Think about it this way: we pretty much all like the Duke and LaRoche signings individually, or at least we agree that the Sox got "good value," even if some of us don't like the players. Despite that, those two guys add up to about $18m in new payroll next year. Most of us around here agree that the most the Sox will add is $30-40m. Nearly HALF of that is gone, addressing just two needs. I've liked the idea of Melky at ~$12m per year, but if you do that now, you're suddenly at $30m and you haven't addressed the rotation at all, and still need AT LEAST on RH reliever. And Tyler Flowers is still your catcher and Phegley is his backup. It's trade time. Free agency is like sugar in your diet -- must be used sparingly.

Guys You don't trade stars that are signed to the deals that Sale/Quintana are signed to. You literally cannot find better long-term assets. They are better than prospects. You trade your stars that are market rate assets. We have already done this -- the only one left is Alexei. Trading Sale and signing Scherzer is NOT a wash because Scherzer takes up 25% of your payroll. There is NO deal that we should accept that the Red Sox were willing to make for Chris Sale. Because the only deals we should except are deals that would make them worse.

QUOTE (Chilihead90 @ Nov 25, 2014 -> 02:19 AM) By my count, the Red Sox have 9 outfielders..... Cespedes, Castillo, Hanley, Victorino, Nava, Craig, Bradley Jr., Betts, Holt Their starting rotation is a mess. I can't imagine with this wild spending spree that they don't just go for broke (sound familar? Beckett, Gonzalez, Crawford) and bring back Lester or even add Scherzer. I'd like to see the Sox target Betts to play LF. Even though it may be a slap in the face, I'd like to see us offer Montas + a lesser prospect for Betts. Maybe Montas + Beck. I think Betts would be an awesome fit for this team as he just turned 22, he hits for good average (.346 in 99 games in AA-AAA, .291 in 51 ML games), hits for decent power (11 HR in AA-AAA, 5 in ML), steals a lot of bases (33 in AA-AAA, 7 in ML), walks MORE than he strikes out (61 BB, 50 K in AA-AAA, 21 BB, 31 K in ML), and plays CF and 2B, meaning he should be able to play a good LF for us. I mean, he's a super impressive player who absolutely dominated baseball at age 21. Combine AA-AAA-MLB numbers last year, and he hit about .320 with 16 HR, 40 SB, 42 2B, a 400+ OBP, and he still has 6 years of team control left. I mean, he'd be a pretty phenomenal get, in my opinion. It would probably cost us a LOT more than Montas + Beck if it wasn't for the fact that the Red Sox have so many damn OFers already, and it's certainly possible they will clear other guys in order to KEEP Betts. But I wish Hahn would really press Cherington and try and dangle some of our pitching prospects for him. That's a FRACTION of Betts' price.

QUOTE (chw42 @ Nov 24, 2014 -> 08:09 PM) Looking at Viciedo's numbers, he's only one year removed from .318 and two from .325. So It's not like he's never done it. But put that in context. Cespedes career wRC+ numbers 2012 - 2014: 136, 102, 109 Viciedo over the same three years: 98, 96, 88 wRC+ is essentially wOBA but indexed so you can see how it compares to league average. Viciedo has been a below average bat by wOBA in every full season of his career. Cespedes, on the other hand, has been above average every year, even if just sightly.

QUOTE (LDF @ Nov 24, 2014 -> 06:31 PM) i am really torn on this, do i like him or is he no better than DV. i am confuse. He is clearly better than DV. That doesn't mean we should want him. DV is terrible, lots of players are better.

QUOTE (chw42 @ Nov 24, 2014 -> 05:18 PM) I don't know about way better. At this point Cespedes is a .330 wOBA guy. I still feel Viciedo has a shot at being at least a .320 wOBA guy. I mean I think you hit my point on the head right there. Cespedes currently IS a tick better at the plate than you think Viciedo HAS A CHANCE TO BE. And Cespedes is also a substantially better defender.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Nov 24, 2014 -> 04:40 PM) I wish this guy was the Mets GM Wyatt Derp ‏@NewYorkMehts 38m38 minutes ago Will Wheeler + Syndergaard + DeGrom and Montero get us Alexei Ramirez, lets do it! Rofl. The anti-homer.

QUOTE (chw42 @ Nov 24, 2014 -> 04:45 PM) They're really not that much better. He's a huge upgrade defensively and he can hit for a bit more power, but I don't think Cespedes is the kind of guy you want. If Viciedo gets some good luck in a year, he can easily match Cespedes' production the past two years. Idk man. I'm very much on the "Cespedes is overrated" team, but he's way better than Viciedo. Cespedes has been a 2-3 win player every year, Viciedo has been replacement level his entire career.

QUOTE (bruni @ Nov 24, 2014 -> 01:36 PM) Judging by the comments, this will not go over well but if someone is willing to trade me Cespedes and Bogaerts plus another throw in (Nava?, Middlebrooks?) for Sale, I make that trade all day long. I then immediately have SS solved for the next 6+ years and I work to sign Cespedes for a longer term deal. I also then flip Alexi to Seattle/LA/NYM or anyone else for 2 young controllable pitchers with upside and grab Headley to play 3B. Every time I watch Sale pitch with the torque he puts on that arm, all I hear is tick...tick...tick... The guy is bound to breakdown and this years stint on the DL for a month is where he is unfortunately likely headed in the years to come. Sell high and solve for 2-4 needs at once for the price of a 12 win pitcher who - while a stud ace when healthy - is a high risk player. Don't think so? Just 2 years ago, the W Sox were going to make him a reliever to save his arm, remember? And if you don't like what Boston has to offer, I'd put it out there are the GM meetings in December that all but Abreu are available so make an offer. Sale is never going to be more valuable than now and our team needs multiple solutions, not just one. Am I in the minority - absolutely. Do I hope Sale can stay and give the W Sox an injury free HOF career - you bet. But as a 22+ year season ticket holder growing tired of watching the team finish out of the playoffs, I'd rather use our most valuable, yet risky piece to gain depth and improve the teams over all talent base. PS - for the Cespedes haters, while yes he is overrated, last year only 9 players in the AL reached 100 RBI's in 2014 and Cespedes was one of them. That type of production is increasingly hard to come by so the comparisons with him and Viciedo need to really stop as it is not even close. Plus a middle of the line up with Abreu, Cespedes, La Roche, Headley, Garcia looks pretty good to me. Stick Eaton at leadoff and Bogaerts in the 2 hole and you are going to have a serious offense! OK - now let me have it! Reasons for no: 1. Cespedes is way, way overrated. He is not necessarily a guy you even want to extend if his price is anywhere near what people are expecting http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playe...amp;position=OF 2. While Xander is undoubtedly valuable and people forget how young he is, he did NOT play well last year, and so his value did diminish a bit. He's still worth a ton, but he isn't the "untouchable top prospect" he was before 3. Injury prone or not, you rarely have the opportunity to acquire superstar even via free agency, and then, it is at bloated market rates and it is when the guy's best years are likely behind him. Everything you like about Sale is multiplied twice over by his contract and age. You cannot replace his contribution and still have any semblance of competitive advantage from a spending standpoint. 4. This organization is THIN on good pitching. I know that sounds weird to say, but if you remove Sale from that rotation, you don't even NEED Cespedes because you're bad. And you cannot afford to replace him with Scherzer or someone, because the only reason you can even HAVE Sale is that he comes at a low cost. You can't move Sale. He's literally the ideal building block. Maybe you'd rather he be a position player, but if you aren't going to try to build around a 25-year old top 3 Cy Young finisher who is controllable for six years at bargain values, you need to get out of baseball. You're not trying to win at that point.

QUOTE (bruni @ Nov 24, 2014 -> 09:20 AM) I'd be most interested in Middlebrooks on the cheap to solve 3B. Potential delayed with injury and mismanagement but (to me anyway) far more potential and nice power to solve 3B for the long term. Or give up more and try to snag Bogaerts if you can, but Middlebrooks should cost far less and fills a need. With all due respect, I could not disagree more. Middlebrooks is terrible. In fact, he was the only prospect in the majors I wanted LESS than Avisail Garcia when we made the Peavy deal.

QUOTE (Alexeihyeess @ Nov 24, 2014 -> 08:40 AM) Sox just don't have the bullets unless they want to send Q over there. They better not trade Q for Cespedes. What? Cespedes is worth like, one quarter of Quintana. Maybe a third. Part of it's because he;s way overrated, but mostly it's because he has only one year of control, whereas Quintana has like 5 under-market years. Quintana would get Cespedes and a couple notable prospects from Boston, and I bet they'd LOVE to make that deal.

Jaso, I believe, has had some concussion issues that are going to keep him away from C from now on. And Jaso as a first baseman is just not a ML player, unfortunately for him and his family. Reddick, though, would be a great fit.

QUOTE (Stan Bahnsen @ Nov 23, 2014 -> 12:23 AM) You know who really mashes lefties in our system, and might be the best platoon partner for ALaR? None other than Mr. Gordita Crunchella himself. I personally thought he should have spent some time in Charlotte last year, putting him on an earlier arrival track. How's he doing in winter ball? I want Tank gone mainly because he can't be played in the OF, but also because he'll be relatively uncheap, given the dearth of AB's he 'll get DHing vs. LHP - can't see it really increasing future value or fostering growth. Indeed -- too bad they yanked him off 3B. It's harder to justify 25-man roster spots for three first basemen at the same time.

QUOTE (Lemon_44 @ Nov 22, 2014 -> 07:25 AM) This just proves to me why I'm not a sabermetric guy and hate how they are used to justify players values because Trout is a much better baseball player than Quintana regardless of what those "metrics" say. Personally, I'd trade Quintana for Bruce tomorrow. I'd probably trade him for Mike Trout too Of course Trout is better. Balta 's point is related to the economics. He's illustrating why Quintana's value is substantially higher than a typical pitcher of his skill because of the price at which it comes. His contract must be factored. Quintana for Bruce straight up would be the worst trade in Sox history. And literally all of us would trade Quintana for Trout without even stopping to think.

QUOTE (nitetrain8601 @ Nov 22, 2014 -> 09:06 AM) You're right. And they didn't. I don't see too many positives with this deal. I would've reached higher and farther. It's weird so many people here like the deal, but they didn't like Dunn. I think it's a total fallacy to compare ANYONE to Dunn. Instantly falling off a cliff to become two to the standard deviations worse is an extremely unlikely outcome for anyone.

Short deal, no draft pick comp, rests abreu, left handed power, doesnt't preclude us from upgrading the OF. Fair money. Love it

I actually think this could be a great fit for the rotating DH/OF model. But no, he's not worth a top prospect. Did Morosi say he'd cost a top prospect?

QUOTE (TheFutureIsNear @ Nov 21, 2014 -> 04:53 PM) Sooo what's the alternative? You let him play out his contract and watch him decline like all SS's do in their 30's and watch him walk? Honest question....is it a sentimental thing with Alexei? He's been here for a while so people don't want to see him go? Or is it that people think we are gong to compete next year? People, in general, aren't good at conceptualizing the difference between what a guy has been versus what he will be going forward.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Nov 21, 2014 -> 04:41 PM) This graphs only applies if you want him in the field as it considers position and uzr as well as hitting. I don't think it takes a genius to figure out if your are short and overweight you aren't going to be a good fielder at most positions. I wonder what it would look like if you are looking at a dh, so only hitting. It includes positional adjustment, which factors his production in relation to DH. This would include zeroes for defensive value for DHs