Eminor3rd

Remember Daniel Hudson?

Well, the whole thread between me and Cali was based on me saying I didn't think Moustakas was a fit.

Good catch; point remains the same, but slightly less so.

I would argue that Mike Moustakas also fits into that tier, which is what I was getting at.

That argument holds water if you believe that a player is going to produce the average of his entire career, for better or for worse, in every season going forward. But I don't think anyone actually thinks that. At least, those who do projections for a living don't. ZiPS, the projection system used by both ESPN and FanGraphs, and one that is notoriously considered "conservative" by the general public, projected Machado for 5.7 fWAR going into 2019: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-zips-projections-san-diego-padres/

This is certainly correct if you think Machado is only a 3 win player going forward and that Moncada's breakout was the result of the position change. I, personally, don't think either is true, but I can't prove it either way so it isn't worth arguing. If Machado now projects as a 4-5 win player going forward instead of a 5-6 win player, and Moncada still takes the strides he takes to become a 4-5 win guy himself as a second basemen, I'd argue the team is in a much better position and still has room to add significant pieces without cracking into top payroll range. But the real problem I have is this: even IF Machado turns into a bust, there was no way to know that at the time. At the time, it represented one of the biggest opportunities in history to get safe, elite production for an entire competitive window. And the money was NOT spent then. Sure, it didn't go away, but I have to wonder now how much of it was ever really there in the first place. And whatever opportunities exist to spend it now are nearly always going to be lesser opportunities. Like, Cole now is the prize. But a 31-year old Cole is absolutely a worse buy than a 26-year old Machado was. The upside is similar but the floor is SO much lower. Injury could make him near replacement level at any moment. Every likes to shit on Machado's down year but it was still worth 3.5 wins. But, all that said: you're right. What I'm proposing is risky. I just think it's the only way this team, given its restraints, can every really get over the top. At least, without a tremendous amount of luck.

Not a perpetual rebuild at all, more like a riskier but higher upside free agency strategy. I'm proposing putting more eggs into fewer baskets, because that's how to get elite talent. Then, when 60% of your prospects disappoint you, it isn't so bad if they are 1-2 WAR players instead. Yes, it can fuck you up fast if an elite guy gets hurt or busts, but the only way that really any team has been able to mitigate that type of risk has been to spend a ton of money, and this team just isn't gonna do that. Spreading the risk makes sense, but not when all you get is slightly below average to slightly above average players to show for it. The Melky Cabreras and Jeff Samardzijas of the world have just as much bust potential as the Gerrit Coles and Manny Machados -- they just don't have the same upside. And your farm is much more likely to produce three Melkys than it is to produce one Machado.

I think this team CAN afford a Strasburg/Cole, it just isn't going to be possible for them to get 3-4 mid-level free agents on top of it, which is their normal "competitive plan." Given the budgetary constraints, that's why it's so critical for them to develop as many of these players as possible, even if many of them don't turn into stars. They need to find their role players so that they have the money for the difference makers. It requires a change in strategy for the front office. Until the Machado debacle, I thought they were on the right track. That was such a clear blunder, that my confidence is shaken.

I wonder if JR is ignoring this because he believes a draft will be in place sooner rather than later. As one of the league’s primary driving forces in colluding to drive player earnings down, he would certainly be in a position to know.

You guys have to understand that when a team does this, it’s because they’re not making ends meet. “Should have stuck with” isn’t really a great option, because it wasn’t working. Granted, the name isn’t what made them fail in the first place, but short a new ballpark, there aren’t really any better ways to sell a bunch of new merchandise and get your brand to the forefront of the local news cycle for a while.

Yeah, I mean. They will probably fail. Again. I guess I’m just always going to be rooting for/arguing for what I believe is the best possible strategy, even if the team is likely to do something less.

No one is “relying” on Collins, but you need to give your players a chance to play if they’re ever going to contribute. If you aren’t willing to do that, then you shouldn’t rebuild. Unfortunately, if the Sox are going to continue to operate like a small market team, the window is going to be small. If you only have one or two shots, you better choose very wisely when to take them. This team has too many holes to warrant blowing “the money” on average role players that take opportunities away from prospects. This time next year, we’re still going to have Moncada/Giolito/Eloy/etc., but we’ll also have Robert/Madrigal/Vaughn either contributing or on the cusp of contributing. It’ll be a stronger base from which to build, and better place to take your one shot. 2022 might be even better. And that may be all we get. I don’t like that fact either, but it is what it is — so for chrissakes I hope they at least do it right.

I’m sure there are tons of posts suggesting things I wouldn’t do, but I am not on the board as much as I used to be, so I miss them. I’ve seen moustakas pop up a lot, so I snagged that one. Yeah, generally, I think the Sox need to make their prospects into contributors instead of signing stopgaps, at this stage. Given what’s currently available in this year’s market, I think that means signing pitching and foregoing position players. If there were superstar position players available, I would likely feel different. A year or two from now, if they’ve failed and are seeing the core pieces on the cusp of free agency, they’ll have to decide whether or not to get more desperate with role players or tear it down again. But with 3 more years of moncada/giolito/etc., this isn’t the year to push all-in with guys like Moustakas.

Right — I don’t know if he’ll be successful, but the plan involves him seeing big league pitching inside of 15 months. And he will need to do that in order to sink or swim

It’s less “carving out” than it is “not blocking them with 34 year old mike moustakas”

Carving out ABs for Vaughn in 2021. Regardless of his success until then, he’s gonna need them if we are gonna be good. they need to not miss on the TOR pitching. I know that sounds dumb, but it’s in their hands. And they’ll need all their pennies.

1. I’m not arguing UZR over DRS, I’m arguing wRC+ over OPS+. I don’t think anyone here, myself included, can make a convincing argument for either UZR or DRS. But wRC+ over ops+ is clear as day. 2. Please stop with this false “sabermetrics vs common sense” narrative. If you keep using that lense, you will miss my point every time. I’m not seeing pie charts, lol. I see a useful player, too. I’m trying to point out the importance of context: I don’t see a full time spot for the guy without costing a higher upside player ABs. I’m refusing to ignore all aspects of his playing just because he hits 30 homers. I Am rightfully wary of committing significant resources to a short term player who will add a win or two to the ledger when we all know that doing so will likely prevent the White Sox from adding a more significant piece. It’s not sabermetrics, it’s just looking at the bigger picture. 3. I’m not counting on ABs for Vaughn next year, necessarily. But absolutely over the next two seasons. Which I said. 4. I don’t know how I feel about JDM. He would definitely make a bigger impact, but he looks to be in decline, and if he bails on 3/67, presumably it’s to end up with more. That’s a big commitment on a declining asset in the easiest position to fill, and for which we already have internal candidates.

I disagree with that notion. The difference I’m trying to point out is one where they are adding foundational, core pieces versus supplementary, fill-in pieces. The former are players that can be projected to sustain or improve their performance rover several seasons, whereas in the latter case, you’re finding players that are likely in decline, and are thus considered immediate, next season investments, even if you are stuck with them for a few after. the important part of the distinction lies in the cost. If you spend money on depreciating, supplementary assets before the core is good enough to make use of them, you find yourself tapped out and several key pieces short. This is, essentially, exactly what the White Sox have done repeatedly over the last few decades. My issue isn’t that Moustakas is a bad player or that he wouldn’t make the 2020 White Sox better, it is that he is an inefficient fit both in terms of roster, cost, and timing, and I’ve seen those types of inefficiencies prevent the White Sox from winning too many times already.

Unfortunately, no. They’re a sub-500 team. They need to add high-end multi-year pitching, a mid-to-high-end multi-year OF bat and they need Robert/Madrigal/Vaughn to arrive and adjust. I’m not saying that they shouldn’t be trying to compete 2020, but what is being done to the 25-man roster should not be characterized as “polishing” or “finishing.” It’s very much still “building.”

My alternative is give ABs to core players that need them. Eloy, Madrigal, Collins, Robert, and Vaughn will need them at DH/2B over the next two seasons, particularly if Abreu is resigned, which seems likely. Save money for impact acquisitions. Like it or not, this teams payroll cap is mid-market. Buy 2 WAR full-ins when they finish your roster, not as building blocks.

1. Context is important. Look past the homers. That’s why we use WAR. His defense is mediocre and his OBP is Leury Garcia bad. His ability to play multiple positions doesn’t help if you already have guys in those positions who are better. Dude isn’t gonna be happy as a multi-position backup to a bunch of rookies. If he would play DH for the White Sox, then he’s a DH for the White Sox. The thing he does best (hit homers) has literally never been easier to come by. This is reflected in his linear weights stats. 2. There’s literally no reason to use bWAR over fWAR for position players, unless you’re prepared to argue that DRS is a superior system to UZR. Fangraphs uses wRC+, which is objectively better than OPS+, even if they don’t differ much. In practice, people use bWAR when they want to make a player look better and it turns out that DRS favored the guy that year. 3. Even if he was worth 3 WAR this year, he’ll project around 2 WAR based on his career numbers and aging curve, and even less if he spends half his time at DH, and what he does going forward is the only thing matters to the White Sox.

The moustakas obsession always kills me. Why do we want a 110wRC+ DH so badly? If we had a black hole in the infield, I get it. That’s what signing 30+ year old 2 WAR players is for. But White Sox need ABs for high upside guys in the infield.

Doesn't "comeback" imply that you were good once before?

lol

Neither guy hit well enough.