Eminor3rd

I'd give him $15m a year without blinking. I like having him on my team. He's a good, stabilizing clubhouse force, and he'll continue to be productive if he's healthy, even if he won't be a true star again. Keep him.

Remember that he just had knee surgery and no one knows more about how that went than the White Sox.

I think the Nats 10/300 offer is, essentially, going to stay on the table all offseason, even if only unofficially. If im right about that, there’s little reason for Boras not to drag the thing out all the way to the end.

Unless the Medicals turn up something negative, or Yusei limits his market by preferring certain destinations, my opinion is that the MLBTR numbers are a bit low. I think the teams that like him think he’s a mid rotation starter and he will ultimately get will get paid like one — 5 years at $12-15M a year. The mlbtr numbers might be more fair, but remember the winning bid is the outlier. FWIW - there is one industry executive I know that agrees with me. Personally, I’ve watched a lot of him over the past two seasons (10-15 starts), and I kind of think he ends up in a multi inning relief role who gets starts when someone is hurt. He just doesn’t seem to get to his top velocity very often, and I think he could benefit greatly from shorter outings where he can air it out. As a pure starter, I think he’s one of those guys who will dazzle at times and completely bomb at times and who ultimately averages out as a 3/4 guy.

The only time prospect “challenge” trades are made is when both teams have soured on their own guy.

I am also trying to figure this out.

I can’t see the Yankees on either of these guys, unless one of them decides to give a very substantial discount to get there. Machado makes sense at first glance, but IMO, Torres is the SS of the future. They’ll spend on pitching instead and give Andujar another year to develop. If Andujar still can’t field, well, Arenado would be a nice backup plan.

It isn’t — as untouchable as Martes was, his stock fell rapidly leading up to his TJ. Could still be an interesting guy if he recovers, but that could be said about a lot of guys.

I feel better knowing the Astros turned this down and not us. Post-hype and/or injury reclamation guys are the types the Sox should be looking to buy low on.

Agreed.

I think you’re right that projection systems don’t do as well with young players, but I don’t know who doesn’t acknowledge that. Any projection will be worse with less data. And while they do account for breakouts in their aging curves, there’s certainly a lot more volatility for guys whose skills and bodies are still maturing. I don’t wanna think about guessing WARs right now. If you’re planning to illustrate they’d be different than steamer, I’ll grant that. But I don’t know if my personal biases are necessarily better informed. Just differently informed. Probably worse on average.

Right but you’re assuming the projections will all even out for the ones that have decent projections, and just saying “well they have upside” for all the bad ones.

Idk man, everyone hitting their projections is pretty daunting. They may not be 1% outcomes initially, but when you start to stack them up like that it gets there pretty quick. Even if you are talking about mean projections (50%) for everyone (which you aren’t, especially on the pitching side), if I told you you had to flip a coin and get tails fifteen times in a row, what do you think the chances are that you could do it?

Um. Go look up “top US cities by population.”

Another injury prone, post peak “good not great” player. At least this one isn’t a pitcher. I only have interest in this if he makes less than expected. Good player, wrong fit.

Good observation, but none of those teams stacked their bullpens through acquisitions — they found themselves having developed them as a by product of amassing young talent.

Haha, honestly I’m okay with it if it stops the slide to “every pitcher is a two-pitch reliever that throws exactly 9 batters.” I appreciate teams trying to win by optimizing, but it definitely makes the game slower and the batter/pitcher matchup less interesting.

The point is you aren’t Bryce Harper and so it’s weird that you think you know what is and isn't important to him. There are multitudes of factors that could potentially come into play to sway his decision. We don’t know what they are or aren’t. So if you wanted to sign him, you’d be wise to show him every benefit you can think of. To be honest, the fact that the money is so big probably makes it MORE likely he will choose based on this type of stuff. If you have several offers between $300-400M, they’re all going to provide you and your family and your future family essentially the exact same means to lifestyle — wouldn’t you start to think about where you actually want to live?

Used to be they always said TJ had about a seven year shelf life. Now that the samples of guys is drastically larger I think there’s less consistency. Some guys get it once an never hurt again, others have it 2-3 times and run out of ligaments to use.

I think that if he stays healthy, Corbin can pitch like a #2 for another year or so. I just don’t see any way it goes beyond that. Spending $100M on that right now would be unjustifiably insane for the White Sox.

This 100%

I do not approve of this. As mentioned in another thread: injury prone, velocity down, ramped up slider usage quickly this year. All signs that suggest a guy who is burning the candle at both ends to squeeze as much out of his body as possible before it’s too late. This is a guy who has peaked. Great addition for a contender who needs a good SP for the next year or two. Absolutely foolish for a rebuilder trying to add to a core.

It might not, but I’d think it would be substantially more likely than the first scenario. And if the window is closing, then it makes Eloy a more valuable trade asset.

Certainly. But would you sell a year of prime Eloy for the less than 1% chance that both (1) the White Sox defy all odds, hit on all cylinders, and make a historic run at the playoffs, and (2) Eloy goes bananas in his literal first taste of major league action, to the extent that he has a two weeks period as productive as any two week period in history?

Even Trout doesn’t add two wins in two weeks.