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cabiness42

He'll Grab Some Bench
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Everything posted by cabiness42

  1. I actually agree with both of the above posts. It's never a bad thing to show gratitude, yet at the same time I'd rather have somebody buy me a beer than send me a card.
  2. They will all pass within two miles of my house on the way.
  3. No matter how badly Notre Dame's opponents fare the rest of the season, they aren't going to finish behind a team with a loss if they're undefeated. They are the odd team out if the season ends with three or more undefeated teams though.
  4. Moustakas walks at about the same rate as Ramirez and Viciedo. If the Sox are going to do that, I'd rather just see them move Viciedo back to 3B.
  5. Until 2012, Adam Dunn had never played a full season for a team that finished with a winning record. How many runs he scores is 100% reflective of that fact and 0% reflective of the value in him taking walks. Oh, and players don't get intentionally walked every game. It happens on average one of every three games.
  6. To point #1: That pitchers aren't afraid to pitch to Adam with a lead is very much about the hitters in front of and behind him. Teams also don't use their LOOGY on him nearly as much when behind than when ahead. To point #2: A lefty slugger is always going to bet the other team's best LOOGY in high leverage situations and the numbers are going to reflect that. Contract dollars aside, everybody would welcome Prince Fielder or Alex Gordon on this team but they were terrible in high leverage situations against the Sox because of Donnie Veal. A lefty slugger's job isn't to get clutch hits, it's to absolutely mash the steady diet of righty starters that come before the situation gets clutch.
  7. That's just not true. I don't know why people think that. Yes, he's strong enough to hit it out the opposite way, but he wouldn't hit it out nearly as often. Not all of Dunn's HR to RF are 440 feet. Some of them are only 360 feet and those would be 320 or whatever the opposite way which makes them outs.
  8. I've given up trying to explain that to people. If they don't get it, they don't get it.
  9. Walks are never overrated. You never average one base per ball hit into play, but you average one base per walk. Dunn not scoring is the fault of the players hitting behind him.
  10. I don't think anybody is actually taught to hit like Dunn. It's something that progresses as you discover what your strengths are. Also, when a major league player is coming up from little league through high school/the minors, he is so much better than the pitching he is facing that he doesn't have to sacrifice average or strike out a ton to get that power. When you get to the majors you finally face pitchers who can miss your bat while you're swinging that hard.
  11. First of all, Dunn's style is what it is. It isn't changing at this point in his career. Secondly, there's no evidence to suggest that if he could change his style, that the immense reduction in his slugging percentage would be made up for by a massive increase in batting average/on base percentage. The Sox got Dunn to be left-handed power. He isn't the Dunn he used to be, but even what he is now would be very difficult to replace and he's probably the second least likely starter to be gone after Paulie.
  12. I think it's the salary. People think that anybody making over $10M a year has to be perfect to justify that salary. You offer fans a choice between a player who makes $15M but plays like a $12M player and a player who makes $1.5M but plays like a $1.50001M player and they will choose the second player because they think they're getting more value. Never mind that you just lost $10.5M worth of actual production at the position, at least they have a guy who isn't overpaid. Then you end up with Mark Kotsay at DH and the same people whine that the owner is cheap and won't spend any money on free agents.
  13. BCS Championship Game odds: This article: http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/...isman-race-more includes ESPN stat geek Chris Fallica's odds that each of the top 4 teams finishes the season undefeated. ND has the best odds of running the table, but also needs others to lose in order to finish in the top two. Using those odds, I calculated title game odds based on the following assumptions: (1) At no point will a team with a loss be ranked higher than any of the four that remain undefeated (2) In the final BCS standings, an undefeated Alabama would be ranked higher than an undefeated Oregon, who would be ranked higher than an undefeated Kansas State, who would be ranked higher than an undefeated Notre Dame. I know that Oregon is #4 right now but their rating in the computer component will go up due to their remaining schedule. (A) Alabama and Oregon both go undefeated (whether or not KSU/ND do is irrelevant) 10.8% (B) Alabama and Kansas State both go undefeated and Oregon does not (ND irrelevant) 19.9% © Alabama and Notre Dame both go undefeated and Oregon and Kansas State do not. 16.4% (D) Oregon and Kansas State both go undefeated and Alabama does not (ND irrelevant) 3.5% (E) Oregon and Notre Dame both go undefeated and Alabama and Kansas State do not 2.9% (F) Kansas State and Notre Dame both go undefeated and Alabama and Oregon do not 9.3% (G) Alabama goes undefeated but the others do not 10.0% (H) Oregon goes undefeated but the others do not 1.7% (I) Kansas State goes undefeated but the others do not 5.7% (J) Notre Dame goes undefeated but the others do not 12.3% (K) None of the four go undefeated 7.5% Total odds of making the title game as an undefeated team: Alabama 57.1% Oregon 18.9% Kansas State 38.4% Notre Dame 40.9% Of course, in scenarios (G-K) there are one-loss teams in the title game and Alabama and maybe Oregon get in some of those cases also, but those are harder to put odds on since they involve the outcomes of the other one-loss teams as well. I will be interested to see if these numbers get updated each week. I would think Alabama's odds would improve the most this week with a win.
  14. If getting "one big out" is your number one criteria in a reliever, you'd better find a way to have a 10-man bullpen. You need guys who can pitch entire innings and get both lefties and righties out. Veal and Thornton aren't even comparable as pitchers.
  15. I've been on the fence about this. There is a part of me that agrees with you and thinks that he will be the weak link in the rotation next year. But then the other part of me sees that he's making league minimum and has minor league options so they need to take a chance to see if he is actually that good.
  16. No, his offense has been in steady decline over the past 4 years, though it would be cool to have one of the three tenors on the roster.
  17. OK, greg, you're either a troll or the dumbest baseball fan on this board. I'll let you decide which that is. Nobody with any sense actually thinks that Morel is a viable option for 2013. You're complaining about Beckham's .694 career OPS but are willing to live with Morel's .612 career OPS from an easier defensive position? You need to take a break from posting and go back to troll school. You must have missed the class on avoiding contradicting yourself.
  18. You are right, except that the OBP was terrible at LF, SS, and 2B, and only decent at RF. I would not say that they are "set" at those positions. There needs to be a bigger shakeup to the lineup than just replacing Youk and AJ.
  19. I know Matt Thornton makes a lot for a non-closer, but he's not easily replaceable. His ERA+ the last five seasons: 172, 172, 161, 131, 126. Also, his numbers against righty batters aren't much worse than against lefty batters, so he's that rare lefty reliever who isn't just a LOOGY. Someone said replace Thornton with Veal and that's just silly. Veal will never be anywhere near as valuable as Thornton. I'm not saying I wouldn't part with him for the right return, but I'm certainly going to be looking to unload him just to ditch his salary. Of the "big" salaries, the first two I'm looking to unload are Rios and Floyd. Rios because corner OF is one of the easier holes to fill via trade/free agency, and Floyd because there are internal options.
  20. Because having a 2B and 3B who can't hit is somehow better than a 3B and 2B who can't hit?
  21. I'd like a guy in his early-mid 30s with a .384 career OBP and a couple World Series rings. Know anybody like that?
  22. As in, done with the job permanently?
  23. I don't see the Sox adding a player that is better in CF than De Aza, I'm thinking that Reed is still the closer, and I'd bet money that the starting catcher is either AJ or Flowers. 3B is the biggest mystery right now.
  24. That's it. That's the 2013 Sox slogan.
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