The Ultimate Champion

QUOTE (StRoostifer @ Jun 5, 2014 -> 10:41 AM) I like what I've read, but what scares me is Nola's scouting reports sounds a bit like Broadway. You know, good command with good off speed pitches. But Nola is not Broadway so if the Sox draft him all we can do is hope Nola doesn't turn out to be Broadway 2.0. Lance Broadway up here was pretty much exactly Scott Carroll. Not the same type of quality starts Carroll made, but overall very similar. If you assume you're going to fall some it's best to start out at a higher point. Rarely do players drafted/prospects become everything they were touted as, so if you're touted as an ace then you have a ways to fall while still being useful along the way, but if your best case scenario is a #2 (which IMO is another way of saying #3-4 stuff that overachieves, and personally I just believe in 1's, 3's and 5's in terms of stuff with the mental/pitching aspects positioning some as 2's or 4's) then you don't have very far to slide to still be useful. Even as relievers, Kolek's ceiling is a nasty closer, Nola's is more like a decent setup man.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Jun 5, 2014 -> 10:34 AM) There is something to be said for the still good stuff, with better command and proven against more advanced competition. Agree, but again, we're not picking mid-to-late round here. Players like this exist in every draft, and you can find/develop them out of other organizations using lesser assets than the #3 overall draft pick. I mean, if we had an excellent RHSP between Sale and Q as your top 3 but needed something behind that, would you really be worried about the Sox having to find a #3-4 somewhere? We can pick these guys up whenever thanks to Mr. Cooper. Also if the Sox are concerned about getting players here as quickly as possible then obviously they still haven't learned anything because that goes completely against their stated current philosophy. Get the best players on the farm you can, develop them as best you can, try to figure out which ones you should trade and then do it, and when you call up players, make sure they're ready to be here and good enough to be here. Sox need to start at Step 1, not Step 4 or 5, and they need to go with the upside here.

If the Sox are split on Kolek/Nola it's just because they are afraid. Upside on a healthy Nola realistically is going to be a 3 type of guy. He'll get there quicker, and if he does well then he's probably easier to extend. Downside #1 is he loses stuff and is a MLB #5 starter or reliever. Downside #2 is he just gets hurt and flames out. Extra factor here is that if you clearly pass on Kolek to take this guy, no matter what Nola does, if Kolek turns out you're going to have to live with letting your same-city rival or your same-division rival get an ace because you were too scared to put your balls on the line. And for that you would deserve to be fired. Upside on a healthy Kolek realistically is going to be a 1-3 type of guy, depending almost entirely on his mental ability & composure on the mound along with his breaking ball, probably just one of the slider/curve to go with a change. If the secondary stuff comes along and he's a gamer on the mound, he's a true ace. Kolek might take an extra 1-1.5 years, still putting him as a fit with our core. Kolek would cost more money though if he does really well, and we'd have to be more aggressive in pursuing an extension to buy out his arb years. Downside #1 is he loses stuff or doesn't have the mental makeup and is more like a Gavin Floyd #3 type. Downside #2 is he also flames out. Extra factor here is that if you clearly pass on Nola to take Kolek, nodoby f***ing cares. No matter what Nola does, you're not missing anything in Nola you can't acquire through lesser means. From a hotseat standpoint, Kolek and his upside is the safer pick. Then you have the trade value perspective. Let's say whoever you pick is going to be packaged in a big deal for a young star player. The next time there's one of these Stanton types out there, or whoever, what do you think the team you're dealing with would rather have, Kolek or Nola? If you have any worries whatsoever on Kolek once he's in your system, you can always deal him off for a haul assuming he's healthy and you're getting the deal done in time. The game of baseball is based around pitching. Assuming 2 players are both healthy (and there is NO reason to assume Kolek is an injury risk while Nola is not, that's absurd, all pitchers are risks) and also assuming both players have the proper mental aspects/composure on the mound, the bigger, nastier guy with the much better arm is the one you want on the mound because he is going to have the best chance between the two of them of consistently getting hitters out.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Jun 5, 2014 -> 10:07 AM) This is why you teach him to throw 95 with alot of movement and improved control. SOOO much this. Kolek has gone out there and has done what he needed to do to get scouts to recommend MLB organizations throw what is potentially a life's worth of financial security at him. Give him that bonus, and now you make him into a pitcher. Don't outdumb yourself here, Sox. It's funny, you want elite velocity and then as soon as you get it you're a-scared? If you're a-scared buy a dog, then draft Kolek anyway.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jun 5, 2014 -> 09:20 AM) You can probably get a higher ceiling, but you probably aren't getting a higher floor or lower bust potential. You take Kolek then, get a year out of him in the minors, then shop him around when a team like the Marlins make a Stanton available, etc. If you're really all that worried you can at least put yourself in position to acquire a massively valuable trade piece that most other teams cannot match. You put Nola out there as a trade piece, other teams can match or beat that depending on fit/need. Nola will probably slot somewhere in the mid range of top-100 prospect lists mainly due to polish and floor, Kolek OTOH after one dominate year in the minors is going to put himself in the top-10, maybe top-3 or 5 depending on how dominant he is and what his secondary stuff looks like in the minors.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jun 5, 2014 -> 09:04 AM) In 2014 having a cheap, cost-controlled, mid-rotation starter is a huge deal for a team. That saves them eight figures+ per year versus if they actually had to go out and bring one in off of the free agent market. They just claimed Noesi off waivers for free, he has the chance to be a #3. Floyd had a way higher ceiling when the Sox got him (true ace ceiling) & Gio (another top young starter) out of one year of a depleted Freddy Garcia. Danks went for McCarthy who was also drafted in the later rounds, Hudson came as IIRC as a 5th rounder. Jose Quintana, MiLB FA. Garland for Karchner, who might we have gotten for Reed? Nestor Molina was a best but we easily could have gotten a similar type of pitcher out of Santos had we actually called around and did some scouting work before pulling the trigger on that one. And here's a blast from the past: we could have signed Ervin Santana, also a #3, for only money if we wanted to forfeit the second rounder. How the f*** are you going to value your second rounder so highly and then go take a guy like Nola at #3? Etc. These guys are out there all over the place. When you are in an extremely fortunate position, as the Sox are in currently, and you have the ability to take a guy who has the ability to be a world beater you f***ing do it. If Aiken and Rodon are both gone then Kolek and Jackson will be there. No reason to take Nola over either of those guys. Also IMO no reason to take a Nola over a Pentecost or Gordon either. So what, maybe you get another Borchard out of it and you miss. At least you took a shot. At least you tried to pay the game. Nola is a forfeit.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jun 5, 2014 -> 08:42 AM) Why does no one consider it going the other way, that in 2 years the White Sox have a successful contributor in the middle/upper half of their order and the high schooler drafted by the Cubs/Twins is having TJS? We can get a successful contributor with the 2nd round pick. There are no guarantees on any of them, so go big here.

Rather have Pentecost over Nola too.

Taking Nola just because he's a college pitcher is something Hawk would do. Think about that for a second. If the Sox go the safety route with this thing at #3 they should be shown no mercy. This would be a whole lot worse than Broadway/McCulloch/1-pitch Poreda ever was given our draft position. And then how fun would it be to see the Cubs and/or Twins take the better player right behind us, lol. If Kolek/Rodon become aces for the Cubs or Twins while Nola is a medicore mid-rotation starter the Sox will never live it down. But if Sox go Rodon/Kolek at #3 and he gets hurt, leaving Nola to Cubs or Twins, nobody really cares because the guy isn't special anyway. Take Gordon or Jackson over that guy. At 3 overall Nola is a turd in the punch bowl. Buddy Bell's turd, with Hawk standing right by it going "Yesss!"

QUOTE (bmags @ Jun 5, 2014 -> 07:42 AM) Happy draft day to everyone. Happy draft day to you too! Now let's make sure Buddy Bell is out getting donuts/running errands while all the real decisions are being made.

Nola is the kind of talent you can acquire out of another organization at the AA/AAA level in a trade. We could get a similar or better player out of Alexei and probably another piece. What a massive waste it would be to use the #3 to get the type of talent you already have the pieces for. 1 of Aiken, Kolek, Rodon will be there for sure, and if Jackson goes to MIA then 2 will be there. There is zero reason to take Nola, that's just punting the pick. Upside, upside, upside all day, and "ceiling of #2" when it's all said and done probably means "#3/#4." God damn it Sox don't f*** this thing up. We're not going to be picking this high again for a while, maybe not in a very long time.

Tomorrow morning news will break that Robin wants Abrey to shave his head. f***in RFobin your team sucks. Catch the ball. First rules in basbeall is catch the ball.

I know Vin is cool and everything biut I'm getting the Sox feed with Darin Jackson, best ever. And right now there's that funny Wendy's commerical on where the cheapskate date takes the wendy's girl out to the library because they can rent a movie for free there. LOL the guy can't even part with a George Washington to get into that cute little redhead's poants, and then she's all like "Well lets go to Wendys and hit up the dollar menu" and the dude gets all psyched about the cheapy dog treat bacon they put on those things. Great commerical, hey DJs back again. Love DJ.

QUOTE (DirtySox @ Jun 4, 2014 -> 08:52 PM) I could see it. From everything we've heard so far, it really sounds like the Sox are his ceiling. Neither the Cubs or Twins are on him supposedy. He could slide if the Sox don't pop him. I take it all with a grain of salt, but I truly enjoy all the draft tweets and rumor-mongering. Provides me with much entertainment. I love the MLB draft. There was something out there a while ago about the Twins loving Kolek but they didn't think he had a chance to make it to 5. I think it's all fuddlesticks and poppycock. No way do several teams pass on the kid. Just disinformation getting put out there.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jun 4, 2014 -> 06:25 PM) In 2004, the Sox had 6 picks in the first 69 selections and 7 picks in the first 89 selections. They signed them all, and so far the group has a cumulative 13.7 career WAR. 14.7 of that WAR is Gio Gonzalez for other teams. So that produced negative WAR for the Sox. It was poor drafting and /or development. They had 9 picks in the top 150 18 Josh Fields 34 Tyler Lumsden 38 Gio Gonzalez 53 Wes Whisler 59 Donny Lucy 69 Ray Liotta 89 Grant Hansen 119 Lucas Harrell 149 Brandon Allen Also notable are Adam Russell (179), Jack Egbert (389), Carlos Torres (449) who all at least briefly appeared in the Major Leagues. Fields and Lumsden had a lot of talent, just busted, Lumsden via injury IIRC. Harrell was very underrated here for a long time, but good stuff definitely, just couldn't control any of it. Had he been able to he'd have been a #3 IMO. Gio was a keeper obviously. Brandon Allen busted too, but he made it to AAA as a legitimate power hitting 1B prospect who Kenny famously dumped for one of the more forgettable players in Sox history, Tony Pena. Lucy was a bad pick, simple as that. Whisler was f***ing abysmal, don't know what they were thinking there at all. I don't know about Liotta or Hansen although I think Liotta did pretty well for a while and made it to AA as a prospect. If we keep Gio and develop someone else like Fields, Allen or Harrell, and/or if Lumsden never gets hurt, that's a potentially great draft for us. OTOH, how the f*** did we draft Wes Whisler? I think this draft is a mix of bad scouting/signing s***ty or cheap players, and just the Sox once again being completely inept at developing hitters by progressing them through the system without making them fix their issues on the way up. Hell, if we just trade Fields at the height of his value maybe we get a real nice return. Instead Fields was traded for an even worse player who we then had to pay for 3 years (another Buddy Bell scouting success story). Also it's worth noting that we drafted the infamous Michael Dubee, but he didn't sign. Little did he know he'd be Sox property a couple years later as a result of the Tadahito Iguchi trade/dump.

So what time is this thing, is it going to be evening again? Please let it be later there's already going to be a lot of stuff that won't get done as it is, it's like a giant trade rumor day, f***, I'll try to stay away from the interenet it's like Xmas morning over here thinking about all this stuff. Can't wait.

Way too much of a pipedream with Aiken/Kolek/Rodon all there when the Sox pick. LOL if that happens & they take Nola, they'll all be hunted down and shot.

The order came from Robin? Fire his dumbass, that's the last straw. Learn how to manage a bullpen and an OF defense, not beards you f***ing idiot.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Jun 2, 2014 -> 02:40 PM) You can't be serious. His value to another org is very low, while the potential value to the Sox could still be quite high. Going off the poster above you (he's only 20) is kind of what I mean. Maybe his value to some teams is low, but there's at least some team out there with their own Buddy Bell sitting there dreaming over the guy and looking at him as a "must buy" player who in short order will gain so much value that he won't be available at all. The floor on any prospect with makeup issues & K issues to boot is not even a Major League player. I'm not saying trade the guy for scraps but when Hahn is out there looking for a young MLB-ready or pre-arb MLB proven piece to add to the core so that we have a hope of contending next year, Hawkins should be part of that package. And if you can find the perfect storm of a situation where you can trade him to someone else's Buddy Bell then that's just wonderful. I mean just imagine if Jared Mitchell had been on another team while the Sox were trading proven players, who might we have more or less dumped to pick him up?

It's actually the opposite, everyone takes his back, well the opposing pitchers do anyway. It's bad when you look at Joey Gathright as a comp and then say "if only he could turn out like that..." It's about time we just clear all these bad OFers out of here. Enough with all the hitters with massive K problems already. When it comes to hitters we just can't seem to find that middle ground between raw talent that can't play baseball and baseball players with low ceilings. And trade Hawkins soon please while he still has some value.

QUOTE (southside hitman @ Jun 2, 2014 -> 01:57 PM) http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article....articleid=23731 I looked up this article up and it was pretty fascinating. It was very complimentary of Kolek and he graded out the best out of the four pitchers they evaluated (Aiken, Rodon, and Hoffman). Kolek's summary: "His posture flashes plus but often settles closer to average, which is a tremendous accomplishment for an 18-year old with such a vigorous motion. Considering that stability tends to develop later than power (and is easier to develop), the profile gives Kolek a vaulted ceiling for mechanical efficiency." What do we really excel at as an organization? Developing pitchers. Getting the most out of pitchers in general, usually focusing on control over radar gun (and it helps when you have such a high point to back down from). And we're also great at keeping players healthy. This is really why I want Kolek. Everyone's an injury risk, but man does that kid have enormous potential. But at #3 I'm not going to be upset about Aiken at all, and Rodon only pisses me off if it becomes a Borass issue. Aiken or Kolek at slot or around there would be a big win for us IMO.

Marlins have another comp pick. Nieto is a Cuban and cheap, maybe Nieto + prospect or RP for Pick + Mathis, with Flowers having Mathis as the backup. They'd save some money there too maybe. In fact thinking about it, might as well add Turner in there. He's struggling & we could use another higher upside RHSP project in the rotation. Another out of options guy like Noesi was, but IIRC Turner is on a MLB contract that pays him a little bit. Marlins could send us Mathis + Turner + the pick, we send back Nieto, Rienzo, and a prospect or RP.

O's look like they could use Gordon and some help in the pen. Dunn could also fit there since Delmon Young is listed as their DH. Edit: MLBTR's order is f***ed up. O's don't even have one. MLB's order of comp picks: 35. Colorado Rockies 36. Miami Marlins (M. Krook - unsigned) 37. Houston Astros (from the Orioles) 38. Cleveland Indians 39. Pittsburgh Pirates (from the Marlins) 40. Kansas City Royals 41. Milwaukee Brewers 69. Arizona Diamondbacks (from the Padres) 70. Arizona Diamondbacks 71. St. Louis Cardinals 72. Tampa Bay Rays 73. Pittsburgh Pirates 74. Seattle Mariners

Brewers look like they have a pile of garbage at 1B still. Dunn with full salary relief doesn't get us there IMO, or it shouldn't, but maybe we could throw in something else?

QUOTE (oneofthemikes @ Jun 2, 2014 -> 12:31 PM) I thought that if you picked up a Comp Bal pick that you got the slot money for that pick added to your pool. So the Sox would still have the $9.5M that they already have but then they would get another $1.5M to correspond to that pick. Yeah, if they add the extra $$$ in the pool then Hahn could do whatever he wanted. Also could be Rodon insurance should he be the pick. Anything is possible.