The Ultimate Champion

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ May 29, 2014 -> 02:10 PM) The rate from the first TJ is that high, but the rate from the second TJ is absolutely horrible. If a guy has one and doesn't significantly change his mechanics, he's a safe bet to need another at some point. The sooner he has one, the sooner he has another. The normal act of pitching on anyone with any mechanics can and likely will lead to TJ for most players. If the Sox feel Hoffman's mechanics are clean and the need for TJ is just a normal wear and tear event, then you don't immediately suspect another TJ is on the horizon. Similarly, just because you take another "healthy" pitcher who also seems to have fairly clean mechanics doesn't mean he'll even make it to arb before getting hurt. And in theory, you'd rather have the TJ stuff come at a time when a player isn't accruing MLB service time and isn't taking up option years. I think the idea of injury = bad mechanics = likely follow-up injury isn't really how it works.

QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ May 29, 2014 -> 02:37 PM) There is probably a less than 40% chance that any of the pitchers reach their ceilings, if you can get the guy you originally wanted and add two more 1st round caliber players later in the draft, like Kodi Medeiros and Jacob Gatewood, I would take that as a win. Edit: I don't think this is the path the Sox will take, but I think that it should at least be in the discussion. I prefer Aiken to anyone in the draft followed by Jackson and then could care less who they take if those two are gone. It's almost a certainty that when the 2nd round pick comes there will be a 15-25 range guy available with the ceiling of an above average starter either in the field or on the mound. If that guy would ordinarily go to school, well, money leftover from #1 could seriously change things. Then in Round 3 there will be a few guys who should have gone in Round 2, and so on. I definitely agree on Aiken though, but I don't think he's there. He'll be gone by the time we pick IMO.

QUOTE (TaylorStSox @ May 29, 2014 -> 02:20 PM) The Saladino point is just a strawman; not really worth acknowledging tbh. I don't think it's counterproductive to trade assets for the long term future for this team. The offense is flukey, the bullpen sucks and the starting staff is hodge podge of good and awful. This current team has little to no upside. So basically you're saying that you wouldn't trade our best prospects (those guys who have a shot at becoming difference makers) for short term glory? I agree with that, and I'm sure Hahn & Kenny would also agree with you. Saladino is a good mention. I'd trade him for just about anyone, prospect or vet, assuming the deal made sense for us.

QUOTE (raBBit @ May 29, 2014 -> 01:55 PM) It was a troll attempt but I found it to be pretty funny as a White Sox fan. The majority of the posters over there suck and hate everybody but there were a few that loved Sierra's bat. Jays fan posters who didn't give two s***s about losing Sierra are in the same boat as Giants fan posters who didn't give 2 s***s about losing Gillaspie and those Mariners fans who were happy to see Noesi dumped off for nothing. Just nod your head politely and then say "Thank you." Then you come back here and LOL about it. Dumbf***s, that's what happens to your daughters when Hahn & his scouts roll through. You lose your Quintanas, all of them, and it isn't until much later that you realize you miss them. And then when you do realize that, you miss them twice as hard, because it puts some perspective on how far behind the curve you are. Thank you Jay fans for Sierra. Talk s*** all you want. Thank you.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ May 29, 2014 -> 01:00 PM) Absolutely. Using real assets (players, prospects or $$) to either trade for or keep bullpen pitchers is a fools' game. If I ran an MLB team this statement would be engraved on everything I owned and it would be dyed into the carpeting of my office. It's so easy to get tricked into overpaying for a reliever. Never let it happen. Every time you trade a Reed for a Davidson, if things don't work out, you look at the way you evaluated that prospect, not the decision to trade the reliever. We could use another Karchner-for-Garland right about now.

QUOTE (TaylorStSox @ May 29, 2014 -> 11:45 AM) How many world series have those models won? I don't want to model anything after the A's. The Rays are a nice story but they get pounced in the playoffs for a reason. Probably all of them. Look, you could spend $50M on a bullpen and still end up with MiLB FAs, waiver claims, prospects, etc. outperforming all of them.

Having that doctor from Rush on the game last night was really cool, and hopefully they do more of that kind of stuff. Here's the thing about Hoffman, and again I'm saying this mostly because I'm intrigued by what bucket posted here, but IF the Sox feel that Hoffman's mechanics are solid AND that his stuff is #1 quality, then shouldn't we assume that the TJ surgery is just due to normal wear and tear of a pitcher's arm? If he comes back fully healthy, again apparently a 90% chance of this, aren't his mechanics then indicative of someone capable of pitching through most of if not all of the 7-9 years or so necessary for a prospect to make it to MLB and get to FA? If the stuff is there, the mechanics are there, and the Sox really wanted this guy from the get-go, I say take him. But that's just assuming this is all the case. But get the guy you want, and don't let him go to the Blue Jays or something because you're a-scared. If you're a-scared, buy a dog, then draft the guy you want anyway. One of my favorite Celtic folk singers, Miss Kate Rusby has a song called "A Rose in April" which is about a young woman of great beauty who blah blah blah I'm not going to get into it but basically this song ( was written for the Sox FO re: Hoffman. The refrain is "You were a rose in April/And still a rose in June" and the way I see it, if Hoffman was your rose in April, he should still be your rose in June. Now I'm not sure if Hoffman himself would like this song because IIRC I read he's into rap, which of course is a sign of low intelligence, but that's okay, he doesn't need to be smart, just good. Food for thought.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ May 29, 2014 -> 12:01 PM) You can't roll the dice with Hoffman. I think they said last night the full recovery rate of TJ surgery right now is 90%. You can't bet the ranch he will be a stud to begin with and he won't be one of the 10%. Ironically, if they were drafting where they normally draft, it could be a good role of the dice. See, I would look at Kolek, Rodon, and Aiken as all being at least 10% or more likely to need TJ anyway. The stat they posted last night was that 1 of every 3-4 pitchers need TJ during their career, so best case that's roughly 25% chance any of these "healthy" guys gets hurt as it is. I think, especially given how successful Sale has been and how Danish is IMO our #1 prospect, we need to start to rethink how we're approaching pitcher injuries. It seems the shoulder injuries are the ones you really worry about, not so much TJ, like with Danks and Freddy, and Johan, that's a long damn road and pretty unlikely you'll be back at 100% ever. Personally I don't know s*** compared to the people making decisions here (okay so I'm probably worthy of employment over Buddy Bell but that's nothing to shout about), but anyway, if the people at the very top had Hoffman as their guy before, then I think they need to really consider that. It could be a blessing for all we know, because if he comes back 100% and becomes a high quality MLB pitcher, AND we get a much better draft 2 and beyond as a result of it, then that's worth gambling on IMO.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ May 29, 2014 -> 11:55 AM) I'm not going to be upset if they choose Jackson. But I will be upset if they pass on Rodon or Aiken. I'll be upset if they take Nola over any of those guys. I don't want Rodon's negotiation difficulties but the talent is there. I guess I cap it at #3 slot money and tell the kid he can either take it or re-enter the draft, just be a f***ing hardass with Borass from Day 1. I could see that. No way am I playing Borass' stupid f***ing games though, f*** that guy. Sox have a FO that likes to make fair deals and Borass with his #1 guys never ever ever even considers a fair deal. He'll ask for #1 slot money & I'd tell him to buy a fleshlight and go f*** himself.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ May 29, 2014 -> 11:29 AM) I just don't see how you roll the dice on an injury guy at #3 when that guy wasn't even clearly better than a healthy guy that's also available there. From the viewpoint of the Sox FO, let's say that everyone was perfectly healthy, and the Sox made a list 1-4 between Rodon, Hoffman, Kolek, Aiken of who they would most like to acquire. IF and ONLY IF Hoffman would have been the best guy available on that list at #3, then IMO, they should still strongly consider taking him and going with overslot guys there on out. There is no guarantee that any of these players picked will pitch several seasons of quality, fully healthy baseball with the White Sox or anyone else. So take your best guy. The main reason I'm saying this is that somewhere in this thread bucket-of-suck posted something along the lines of Hoffman being the most talented guy in this draft. Now I actually buy into bucket having sources, so to me that is very interesting. If the Sox would have tabbed Hoffman as their #1 without injury, then I think they should still take him now, given the success rate of TJ surgery. And the fact that they could potentially add in guys in the 2-10 round range who ordinarily might go to school and re-enter the draft as 1st rounders, well that's a good way to hedge your bet. And the only way this draft is a failure at #3 is if you draft a pitcher who you don't believe has a shot at being a true ace. Anything less would be uncivilized (stink for lack of deodorant/ambition).

QUOTE (TaylorStSox @ May 29, 2014 -> 11:06 AM) So what? You build your team expecting to catch lightning in a bottle? There are outliers and exceptions, but it's retarded to build your team expecting that to happen. I loathe when people use outliers as examples. It's such poor logic? Is there another Jenks? Montas doesn't have 4 elite pitches. What is a bullpen, and how do you fill with guys who are always very good and also who cannot immediately become very bad? What you do is build as much depth as possible and see what happens. When holes open you try to fill them as best you can. Guerra could be a nice pickup. If Carroll can handle the long man role that's huge for us. Putnam has been nails. Petricka, very good again. 4 guys who in total took nothing to acquire aside from Petricka's drat pick. This sort of thing happens all the time. Also there is going to be another dynamite closer out there somewhere. Sergio Santos cost nothing either, and man did he have great stuff for us. All we had to do is convert him & put him on the mound. Every organization has live arms who won't make it for them and we'll find one. And re: Jenks yes he had terrific stuff, a great 4 seamer, 2-seamer, curve, slider, and his change for a while was his best pitch. But he certainly didn't have elite stamina, character issues, wasn't keeping himself in shape, etc. So he also had a lot of flaws and red flags, probably a lot like the next terrific closer we'll inevitably pick up for nothing.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ May 29, 2014 -> 10:49 AM) And why do you need a top 5 if you are picking 3rd? Seems this guy just wants to sound like an insider. Nothing earthshattering on that list. Context, probably. But in reality you would want to have a 4 & 5 in case of injury or something, or just some information that comes out very near to draft day that prompts a revision/change in course. Due diligence/covering your bases and such. But overall, not sure why this guy would have information that is truly that specific.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ May 29, 2014 -> 10:04 AM) Giolito was the 16th pick though. You can take risks in that range of the draft. At 3, you really want to make sure you hit on someone. Everyone is a risk. You can't "make sure" of much of anything, and "hitting" on someone seems to describe the process very well, i.e. you identify a target, take aim and fire, but between you and target lie a whole host of variables you cannot control. They put a graphic up last night on the boob tube about TJ surgery and how there is a 90% recovery rate where each pitcher comes back as healthy or better. That is terrific to know. Do you expect any of Kolek, Aiken, or Rodon to never have to need surgery? If Hoffman was their guy before, then he should still be on their radar now. They don't need to give him an MLB deal, and can get him way under slot, and doing so could allow for a very deep draft by spreading money around in every area. Basically it's the equivalent of trading a pick which you can't do, but same thing, you're "trading" the bonus money and opting to play the numbers game. I think it's a really cool idea and not as "risky" as it may seem. In fact if you get more better prospects then you might be pretty much mitigating that risk entirely.

QUOTE (TaylorStSox @ May 29, 2014 -> 10:44 AM) I don't want the face of the franchise to be that ugly. Put some lipstick on him then.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ May 29, 2014 -> 10:31 AM) Lock Beckham down for 4/$24M and let him be the face of the franchise. I'd do that if he would but I can't see why he would. He'll make $6M in arb and if we non-tender him he'll probably get like $15M guaranteed at least even if he's just halfway decent. He's too close to FA to take something like that IMO. And that's probably why we should deal him if we like Semien and everything, because how comfortable would you be giving him $8M+ per year? Because if he keeps this up (finally) that's going to happen, and then you'll have to ask yourself, what does this guy look like 2 years from now? Ah, the pitfalls of having Greg Walker as a hitting coach. Sigh. Had we brought in Steverson a couple years ago we'd all have more memorabilia with World Series Champions decals on them & we'd at least know who the real Beckham is by now.

It's hard to rate a lot of these guys. I think overall the offense was great. Flowers specifically is TERRIFIC, A+ unquestionably, and last night's game is a perfect reason why. Goes 0-4 and reaches on an error, seems like a bad night, but his 2 strike approach ALLOWS him to be aggressive early in the count, look for his pitch, and then stay alive when he's down. He's never been able to do that before. Reaching via error puts Leury into the game, and that wins it for us, and no way that can ever happen - and no way his "cheapy" hits ever happen either - without that change in approach. I don't expect Tyler to be a .300 hitter, maybe he's more of a spastic type that will hit .270 when year with a lower SLG% from fewer HRs, then have a year with a very low BA and lower OBP but with a quality HR total for a C. But either way if he keeps his approach he is a Major League catcher. And holy s*** at that development, that is absolutely HUGE for this organization.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ May 29, 2014 -> 10:18 AM) I almost want to give Quintana an A. From a DIPS/FIP/fWAR perspective, he's actually on pace to have a BETTER season than last year. I truly thought last year was his peak, but that may not be the case. He's continued to get physically stronger, develop his pitches, and become more of a pitcher on the mound in terms of figuring out how to get through tough games/innings when he doesn't have a full arsenal. You shouldn't be surprised. He's pretty good.

On Sierra, I'm not really sure I buy the power part of his game that was considered a potential strength when he was a prospect, but he can really hit the ball hard. Might be more of a line drive hitter, a 12-18 HR type if he gets the playing time. He needs to play though, and at this point, if it's him or DeAza then that's an easy decision to make. I wonder if DeAza could get us an MLB reliever from another team? Maybe someone useful, not necessarily great, just someone else who can go out there and make outs. A replacement for Downs ideally.

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ May 28, 2014 -> 10:26 PM) I'm not gonna say Noesi is cooper fixed and everything is definitely trending upwards for him, but the guy obviously has good stuff. Sometimes his change is downright evil He's doing a much better job of keeping his body under control and repeating his delivery. The nerves seem to have calmed too, and I think the Carroll demotion to the pen and the Rienzo coming back to Earth stuff probably made him feel a lot more comfortable on the mound, like he's not in immediate danger of losing his job. If he can just relax, keep it under control, and make his pitches, he'll become a quality piece of our core. Hahn needs to keep looking for more players like this. QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ May 29, 2014 -> 09:10 AM) You take that all day from your 4th/5th starter. What makes him interesting though is that he has the ability IMO to be a #3 if he can keep improving. It's always nice to have pitchers that are useful on their downsides but have the upside to do more.

QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ May 28, 2014 -> 06:17 PM) We should do what I occasionly do on OOTP and that's just start the game with a reliever and hope he can give you 3 good innings and go from there. I'm only half kidding, Noesi is cannon fodder. Yeah but no though

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ May 28, 2014 -> 05:39 PM) Why on Earth would the White Sox call this a good thing? At the very least Dunn seems like he's a non-terrible trade chip on his own right now. He's hitting adequately and isn't a long term commitment any more. At the very least the White Sox ought to be able to move Dunn's contract on its own this year if that's what they want to do unless he's hurt. You talk about the Yankees eating the rest of Danks's salary if he keeps pitching the way he has in all but his last start and maybe you'd have something. I think there's a real chance that Danks can work with the fastball in the 88-90mph range if he can stay there comfortably. He is a lefty with good enough control and secondary stuff, plus there's lot of experience there as well. He could still become a useful piece worth his contract IMO, and the only way you flat out dump the guy is if you're convinced he's a #5 and nothing more. I don't think you dump him for money concerns ATM. It's just too early to write the ending on that guy, especially coming off his last start.

Sox need to eat as much $$$ as necessary to receive a real prospect, IF that is on the table with Dunn. It's not like they're going to be using payroll on anything that matters anytime soon, at least not until the offseason.

QUOTE (greg775 @ May 28, 2014 -> 02:01 PM) We had so much fun on our seventh or eighth grade field trip to Springfield. I won a huge pot in a game of "in between" on the bus and the tour of the park there was awesome with everybody splitting up and having so much fun. It was fun back in the day when parents and teachers both didn't watch their kids' every move. When I was that age I used to make bow and arrows out of unsharpened colored pencils and rubber bands. Now if you capture a large grasshopper and use thread to affix it to one of your very sharp pencil arrows, it makes a rather interesting weapon. This has a lot to do with baseball.

QUOTE (SoxPride18 @ May 28, 2014 -> 01:12 PM) He doesn't suck so far this season. We either sign him to a team friendly deal, or trade him before July 31st (if we are out of it). Yeah I agree, hopefully we can get something good out of him. TBH I'm not in love with either Beckham or Semien. Micah Johnson is really the guy I'm hoping for here.

QUOTE (Ozzie Ball @ May 28, 2014 -> 01:15 PM) You can't do this. If you don't sign the #1 pick you lose the bonus amount assigned to that pick and then receive a compensation pick the following year. Ah, I didn't know that. Then I definitely pass on Rodon. No way does he sign for #3 slot money IMO unless HE and his family force the thing through and even then, that goes down to the very day of the deadline. I want a quicker sign and some certainty so I can target the overslot guys. No reason to mess with Borass on a guy Borass feels is the BPA in the draft, that's just a terrible series of negotiations that impacts the whole rest of the draft.