The Ultimate Champion

QUOTE (StRoostifer @ Dec 6, 2013 -> 08:45 PM) You also have to look at from the other point of view. Lets take Arizona and the players already mentioned in this thread. If you were a DBacks fan would you cough up the farm for Sale? Personally I would not despite how good Sale is and I've been a life long sox fan going back to the 70's. This is what I meant when I said fans over value their teams players. 6 or 7 top prospects is not reasonable at all and Sale is not worth that many from a team that has good prospects, period. Keeping Sale is also a gamble since he is a pitcher and any pitcher is susceptible to shoulder, elbow injury. Baseball players in general are all gambles. I still remember when the Sox questioned BMac's durability and also how he was untradable, wasn't long after that he was traded ( many fans freaked) and not long after that the injury bug came. This is the risk with any pitcher but especially the tall lanky guys. I'm not saying he will get hurt, just pointing out that it does happen. Again, players and trades alike are both huge gambles. They're fans. What do they know? We're fans, too. What do we know? Let's go back to the 2009-2010 offseason as one example. Adrian Gonzalez who had just belted out 40 bombs playing half his games in PetCo was on the trade block & I believe at a combined salary of something like $8-9M over the next 2 seasons. He was also ours if we wanted him, signed sealed and delivered, if we wanted to give them Gordon Beckham. Personally I was against that, thought it was too much, and I wasn't alone. But let's say we make that deal, Beckham and maybe we throw in Flowers and a couple other pieces, probably Jordan Danks would've been in that. I don't think we'd have needed Hudson in there had we built the deal around Gordon. Because we acquired Gonzalez we'd have a defensive upgrade at 1B. Paulie would be the DH, Dunn is never signed, meaning we have a real DH in 2010 as opposed to a Mark Kotsay/Andruw Jones platoon. EJax may not even be acquired since it appeared he may have been primarily picked up to get Dunn. Maybe we have Hudson still, maybe he's dealt elsewhere for another piece. We'd have needed a 2B and probably would have made a veteran acquistion rather than Nix. Dunn's money (and maybe EJax's money) that was given out in 2011 is spent elsewhere on a stronger team. We finished 6 games behind the Twins in 2010 even with a turd in the DH slot and who knows, maybe a playoff run there has the 2011 "all-in" season a completely different club that starts out hot and wins instead of swirling down the drain. Or maybe Ozzie ruins everything anyway, no matter what moves are made. Point is, what did we know then? Would we be regretting that deal now? I wouldn't. Trading Sale, a proven ace, for a young player who hasn't proven anything is probably going to turn ugly in a hurry for us. It is very difficult to come up with a player of Sale's magnitude, and in the last example, same with Adrian Gonzalez. Fans are always deathly afraid of risk but somehow want their GMs to build winning organizations without it, as safely as possible, and yet at the same time they advocate some of the silliest practices possible and are fully prepared to judge everything in hindsight without holding themselves accountable for their own opinions. Imagine if you sought out some firm for financial advice and ran into some nutcase who told you to liquidate every asset you have and go buy up as many lottery tickets as you can. That's what a Sale trade is like. And if you're going so far as to trade Sale, what are you keeping Q for?

On June 2, 1987, with the 5th overall pick in the draft, the Sox selected Jack McDowell. 23 years and 1, 116 picks later, on June 7, 2010, the Sox selected Chris Sale with the 13th overall pick. This was the second time in well over 2 decades and well over 1000 picks that the Sox had selected a pitcher in the draft which they would then develop into a true #1 ace starting pitcher. During that period the Sox took a total 50 pitchers in the top 100 overall of their draft classes, and while I'm not really into WAR or anything (I'll use it since everyone else does) the only pitchers of that 50 who have posted a career WAR total as high as Chris Sale's 6.9 during last single season are Alex Fernandez (28.9), Bob Wickman (17.2), JJ Putz who didn't sign and who we didn't therefore develop (13.7), Jeff Weaver who again neither signed nor developed here (15.4), Kip Wells (8.3), and Gio Gonzalez (14.3). I hope this shows how rare Sale is for us.

I wonder how many times a true #1 pitcher with several years control remaining has been traded for a prospect who also turned into a true #1 pitcher. I don't think it's happened many times. I know that it hasn't happened a lot. Mulder had how many years left when he netted Haren? Randy Johnson brought back Freddy Garcia. Both were only brief aces though, and overall not as impressive in their primes as the guy they were traded for. You trade Sale & you're almost certainly trading the best player in the deal, and unlike my 2 previous examples (looming FA and a contract extension unlikely) there are no issues with Sale more or less forcing us to trade him. I imagine we'll watch what Price goes for, half the board will be like "ALJDAFJHLAF shudda traded Sale fer that KAJDLJKASDJ" and then 3 years later we'll be pretty glad we never sent Sale off for the same package plus a couple jockstraps. We trade Sale we need like 8 guys back or something like that, if they're prospects. Texas can give us Profar, Perez, Martin and a bunch of prospects because we need MLB players. They can take Adam Dunn too & Jeff Keppinger would be a great mascot. If we're counting on receiving 4-5 starting-caliber MLB players who play large roles well, as Chicago White Sox stated, then we'll probably need about 10 guys back to make up for all the world-beating Smoaks and Ackleys and etc. that we'll end up with. And I say that since someone mentioned we're in danger of turning into the Mariners, but actually we're not, because evil Kenny Williams liked to trade off most of his future busts rather than build around them for years in vain.

QUOTE (flavum @ Dec 6, 2013 -> 05:45 PM) Well said. Obviously they would have to be overwhelmed to move Sale now, but if they got a pitcher with ace upside, and drafted another one in June, while getting 2-3 offensive players in the process, it wouldn't be a dumb move. If those players took a long time to develop, couldn't be locked up, etc. etc. etc. There's a lot of value in 1) what Sale can do now, 2) what Sale can do in the future, 3) the price at which he can do it, 4) the length of time he is able to do it, 5) the fact that as an elite player he is marketable, 6) the fact that he is a reliable name to market, etc. etc. etc. Imagine what would have happened if the White Flag Sox decided to trade Big Frank way back when for a bunch of McKay Christensens and Jeff Abbotts and the like. But oh f*** we've got Scott Ruffcorn, watch out world! You don't trade Sale unless the offer is beyond stupid. It would have to be so otherwordly dumb that when the deal was announced nobody would believe it & they'd think Rosenthal or whoever broke the story had been trolled. It would have to be the prospect version of the Vernon Wells to Anaheim deal where you'd be like WTF how is this happening? Are those people breathing? What? That's what it would have to be. Not like 5 guys from Arizona. Yuck.

The best course of action for an organization that can't develop position player prospects to save its life is to trade its best starting pitcher, biggest franchise piece and greatest overall asset for a whole host of position player prospects. But hey, as long as we get a couple pitchers in there we're good. I can just imagine a butt naked Rick Hahn proudly strolling through the streets of SoxTalk while all us loyal subjects loudly applaud & praise him for his fine clothes.

Rule-5 gets more attention but when is the last time we got a good player that way? Can't remember. We picked up Jenks and DeAza with waiver claims. Seattle's roster is at 39 & will be 40 after Cano with them still out there trying to give their money to everyone. They have some bust types, maybe a few players that aren't good enough for their roster but good enough for ours. Maybe they cut someone loose. Any team for that matter that is close to or has a full 40 may need to make some decisions on players, especially contenders with strong farm systems who can't afford to lose any space.

QUOTE (Dunt @ Dec 6, 2013 -> 03:37 PM) I'm really hoping this is just a precursor to a trade about to go down If they dumped someone who might be worth holding to otherwise then I might think that, but there will be better talent available in the Rule-5 & as MiLB FA or otherwise via the waiver wire than those guys. Maybe we're looking for our next Quintana, Bobby Jenks, etc. Keep in mind that teams with good farm systems are kind of forced to keep players on the 40-man, and if they want to create space to sign someone then....? We're in great claiming position.

QUOTE (raBBit @ Dec 6, 2013 -> 03:57 PM) Absolutely no reason to trade John Danks right now. Go into the season with him in the back end of the rotation and have him reestablish his value. There's no doubt in my mind he can be a #4 or at best a #2-#3 option. His shoulder will be a 100% and I expect him to bounce back. I hope this happens, because we could realistically make him available on June 1 as the best pitcher available with 2+ years control remaining at less than market rate, and as a lefty, and as a younger type of SP. But it's risky though if for example there is a deal out there now.

You also have to factor in risk. Of all of our starters Danks carries the most risk. Sale is owed money so if he gets hurt tomorrow and never throws another pitch in a Sox uniform then we owe him all that cash. But the reward is well worth that risk. Q & Hector are already producing. Q hit 200IP in his first full season so he's already proven himself. Both of those guys get hurt tomorrow & never throw another pitch then we owe them nothing. With Sale, Q, and Hector, as well as with Erik Johnson who should be capable of a fine return himself, you have the potential to acquire prospects, but those prospects aren't themselves guarantees for anything. Any deal we might make with any of those pitchers could very easily leave us disappointed because we end up trading the best player in the deal. The game is always about winning in the Majors, and real on-field value is what matters most, not "trade value." Danks OTOH has already been hurt and is already owed a lot of money. He also would figure to bring in the smallest return both now and in the future among our group of SP especially if Hector and Johnson prove they are quality MLB starters. Now while Danks could massively up his trade value with an excellent first half in 2014, is the potential price of Danks now (full salary relief and possibly a very small piece) and the price of Danks at the deadline (Peavy deal?) worth the risk of paying a guy $43M over the next 3 years to be your 6th best pitcher?

The absolute best case scenario IMO would involve keeping both Hector & Danks with Hector establishing himself in a guaranteed spot while Danks makes a full recovery, and then trading Danks at the deadline for a return not too much smaller than what someone might be willing to give up for Hector right now. But there is a lot of risk involved, i.e. what if Danks doesn't come back fully, what if Hector takes a step back, what if you potentially pass on either a good young player/prospect or big salary relief when you had the chance.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Dec 6, 2013 -> 03:15 PM) I think you'd have to include money or essentially give him away, but I could absolutely see him getting traded. Here's a scenario: -Sox want 3 lefty, 2 righty rotation with Sale at the top, Q as a 3, X lefty as a 5 -Two trade options present themselves: 1 we deal Santiago away and pick up a really good looking MLB-ready or close prospect or else we get a young MLB player; 2nd scenario we get a decent looking reliever and/or UT prospect from another team that agrees to take on all Danks salary in the belief that Danks will return to near 100% prior effectiveness and they are getting a steal Which option do you take? Immediate salary relief + potential small piece with Hector in a guaranteed spot, or do you eat the money, deal Hector for another young piece that you believe can help now?

This season: Jorge de la Rosa = 1 year $11M Scott Feldman = 3 years $30M Dan Haren = 1 year $10M Tim Hudson = 2 years $23M Phil Hughes = 3 years $24M Josh Johnson = 1 year $8M Scott Kazmir = 2 years $22M Hiroki Kuroda = 1 year $16M Tim Lincecum = 2 years $35M Ricky Nolasco = 4 years $49M Jason Vargas = 4 years $32M Ryan Vogelsong = 1 year $5M ....drumroll prease.... John Danks = 3 years $43.5M Even coming back from injury it doesn't sound out of line at all in comparison to that list.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Dec 6, 2013 -> 11:40 AM) Class Act? LOL This is a class act: http://www.soxtalk.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=90610 And everyone else who didn't donate is an asshole who kicks people in the nuts & gets busted with roids. Ha, we just signed a coke head & 3 comments into a thread about 1 Sox legend honoring another there is more crap on AJ. It took like 2 pages before anyone even mentioned coke in that other thread.

The AJ haters hate Hawk too. BTW I've got a whole line up of bulls*** sources too, I just don't quote them. AJ is a legend and a helluva competitor, wish he was back. He's the smartest position player we've had in a long time and whatever his attitude is like on and off the field, we need more of it.

QUOTE (ChiSox59 @ Dec 5, 2013 -> 07:57 PM) Hmmm. Well, the pen could use an arm, so this works, but I would think they could have gotten similar production out of a cheaper scrapheap pickup, and/or Petricka / Webb. If you don't create a situation where your make your good young relievers force their way into the pen then you will inevitably create a situation where your bad young relievers will force their way into the pen. Webb & Petricka should be treated as gas cans until they have proven otherwise via their on-field performance.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Dec 5, 2013 -> 06:05 PM) I disagree with most of what you say here. First off, I think this team is easily a 70+ win team as currently constructed. Our rotation will be better this year with no Axelrod and a stronger Danks. The offense can only get better, and I honestly think it can get way better if a few key things go right. The upgrade from Paulie to Abreu as the everyday 1B will be significant and I'm also extremely high on Viciedo and Garcia taking off next year. Those three guys will make or break the offense, but right now I'm on the optimistic sides of things with them. Obviously C & 3B are big holes and 2B is a big question mark, so we're still a flawed team offensively. The defense should also improve some, but then again who expected the dropoff from 2013 to 2012. Still, overall this is easily a 70+ win IMO as long as we stay healthy and don't suffer extreme bad luck. Second, I disagree with you that this is pretty close to the team we'll see on opening day. I'm very confident at least one starter will be traded and that a catcher will be added. I also wouldn't be surprised to see De Aza, Gillaspie and/or one of Ramirez/Beckham being shipped out, with Semien taking over in the middle infield and a new CF or 3B coming back in some sort of trade. I also think they'll add a left-handed reliever in free agency. Point is that it's not even the winter meetings yet and IMO we should still expect a lot of changes, especially on the position playing side. I agree with this, and also, if we end up seeing Semien and/or Leury starting in the infield, plus maybe a new young OF, we may end up closer to a 2011 situation than a 2012 one with a youthful energy and desire to play hard. We have the starting pitching to be a whole lot better than last year. That said, Hahn still needs to approach the offseason as if we're a shoe-in for 90+ losses because now is the time to do some serious work on the foundation of the organization.

DeAza is good as gone anyway. Viciedo is pointless to dump for pennies on the dollar. I'm not sure how/why you would factor them into a Granderson addition anyway. Granderson = no 2nd round pick plus the money, and you're getting exactly what out of him? He's the type of player that should hit a sharp decline pretty soon, a speedy K power guy. No thanks, dumb move. We're not contenders & he should garner less trade interest 1-2 season from now than he has interest on the open market now, and his return would probably be pretty underwhelming.

Jeremy Reed never turned into anything. Miguel Olivo at his best was a fairly solid backstop on some bad teams but one with a poor reputation for working with pitchers and without much consistency with the bat. Michael Morse never turned into anything for Seattle until they gave up more talent to reacquire him after labeling him a bust & letting him go. None of this has anything to do with Freddy Garcia helping us win a title. The idea of a stocked farm is that it provides a team with a wide pool of talented players to assess, and it affords much greater organizational flexibility. An organization can pick and choose which players to keep around, which players to trade, and if there are a couple different highly rated prospects about to break through at a couple different positions, an organization can pick and choose which MLB player (and salary) should be replaced/traded, and that flexibility alone could prove very valuable. Dick Allen = Devil's Advocate. He and Marty34 would make a great tag team if they didn't hate each other so passionately.

When the Sox pick in the 2nd round there will be late first round talent available. If the Sox gave up the pick to sign Granderson, and then traded him, I think it's unlikely they could acquire through trade the type of talent that would be available when the Sox pick in the 2nd. Granderson's contributions in the next year or two shouldn't be worth that much to a rebuilding team. I would rather draft a top prospect in the 2nd round and then a year later spin him off as the centerpiece of a deal for someone else's much younger MLB-proven OF. Because at this point, while it's true we need talent on the MLB team, we need to maximize our chances of acquiring long-term fits. And whether keeping and developing talent from the farm or (preferably) trading unproven prospects from the farm for young established MLB players who can be locked up for years foregoing free agency, prospects are going to help us out much more. The Sox should buy on FAs who don't cost draft picks, and if they trade for anyone, please go all out and get Castro. I'd give up a ton for that guy, and he's just out there because it's the Astros. Most teams don't try to deal off young high quality catchers, they try to extend them. Hahn's best skills seem to be in contract negotiation, so try to make that deal & extend him. And I don't mind parting with top pitching either, we can actually develop that. Semien or Beckham plus Johnson and Reed, yeah I'd go that far. I think I like Beck a little better & I like our chances of coming up with another long-term SP piece through next year's #1 or in another deal.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Dec 3, 2013 -> 07:56 AM) Aj leaving did not cause the 63 win season. Unless you somehow believe things like AJ leaving caused Paulie to smash his arm on the wall in a fit of sadness, which caused him to hurt his wrist, or that De Aza was so distracted by AJs absense that he was constantly thinking of him, leading him to miss balls in CF and get picked off of bases.... Both of those things happened to me, so yeah. But back to your hate fest & enjoy the free swinging garbage back there.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Jul 6, 2013 -> 06:35 PM) Its so like the Dodgers nowadays to trade for an overrated starter. At some point, the results mean more than his stuff does. From the looks of it they are giving up absolutely nothing. Great move for the Dodgers. Record be damned, it must be exciting as hell to have a FO & ownership like that.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 1, 2013 -> 05:59 PM) REPEATING THINGS DOES NOT MAKE THEM TRUE. Say that 10 more times & I will believe it.

Swisher seemed to look to walk a lot when he was with us. I think that's an example of a lot of things though, mainly just being a b****. He has a high b****%.

BTW I hope the Indians want to get ahead of the game & give Scott Feldman something like a 4 year/$55M deal in the offseason. Yeah.

The 3 players the Indians just took on all have games where you would expect them to fall off hard once they do fall off, especially Bourn. Taking on a s***load of money on a player you don't think is all that special is never a good idea IMO. The best thing to do is to have players either pre-arb, in arb, or into deals structured during the arbitration process. Even keeping your own good players costs a lot during that 6th/7th/8th year of service time in a lot of those deals. If the goal is to be thrifty, and you end up with a good team, that payroll will climb very fast.