steveno89

QUOTE (flavum @ Feb 7, 2017 -> 03:37 PM) They better not blow this. I'm thinking the Astros and Sox need each other right now. The Astros could pretty easily part with Martes + Tucker + Perez + Reed and still have solid farm depth They still would have Paulino, Whitley, Gustave as pitching depth. As well as Gurriel, Laureano, Fisher and Hernandez as position player depth. Quintana gives them 4 cheap seasons of quality production, making Martes expendable. Whitley and Paulino should be ready in a couple seasons to help. Tucker is still a few seasons away and is expendable for a piece like Quintana. They have prospect depth at the OF position with Laureano/Fisher/Hernandez and Cameron in the system. Perez is several years away from the majors and is a high upside lottery ticket. He could shoot up prospect lists, or fizzle out in the minors. Reed is completely blocked from the majors and is expendable. High Risk/High Reward final piece to a trade. Houston may not like the price, but this allows them to keep Musgrove, as well as the entire mlb roster intact. Deal makes too much sense not to happen

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 7, 2017 -> 03:19 PM) That is speculation, not news. Quintana will remain on the Sox until we get an offer in the realm of the Sale/Eaton deals...likely around the deadline Using a crude prospect grade matchup of potential value: Sale netted us: Moncada ("A" grade prospect) + Kopech ("A-/B+ grade prospect) + Basabe ("B-" grade prospect) + Diaz ("C+" grade prospect) Eaton netted us: Giolito ("A-/B+" grade prospect) + Lopez ("B+" grade prospect) + Dunning ("B" grade prospect) Quintana should not be moved unless we can receive a very similar package to these deals As good as Martes (B+) and Tucker (B+) are, they alone are still light in terms of what we need to be getting back. Perez (B+/B) and Reed (B-/C+) would have to be included (or similar players) to balance out a deal That is the impasse that we are at right now.

QUOTE (pablo @ Feb 7, 2017 -> 03:04 PM) I'd much rather roll with scenario 2. Robertson is not going to get anything more than a back end top #100 prospect if he recoups all his value. Just look at the Melancon trade from last year. If Jones proves himself as a closer, he could be worth two top 100 prospects. The Pirates got Felipe Rivero and Taylor Hearn in exchange for a three month rental of Melancon. It might not seem like a huge haul, but Rivero was very solid last season and is only 25 years old Hearn is an interesting arm that could develop into a quality player. Minor League ball has Hearn ranked as Pittsburgh's #7 best prospect #7 Taylor Hearn, LHP, Grade B-: Age 22, drafted by Nationals in fifth round in 2015 from Oklahoma Baptist; acquired in July Mark Melancon trade; 2.44 ERA with 75/23 K/BB in 52 innings between rookie ball and Low-A; somewhat old for these levels but he was considered raw for his age when drafted and has made good progress in pro ball; explosive fastball with movement at 94-98 MPH, with reports of 99 at times; took step forward with hard slider as well as command; very athletic, loose arm; change-up and command need work; not rated this highly on other lists but my intuition likes this one a lot and there’s no question about his physical ability; high risk, high reward. ETA late 2019. Two arms with upside for a rental is a good return. Robertson could easily return more than Melancon did because he is under contract for the next two seasons, at potentially a reasonable sum if the Sox kick in some cash to go along with him

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Feb 7, 2017 -> 03:00 PM) Don't see it happening now. Maybe if they see progress in their youngsters this year though. The Phillies have a solid farm system, but I can't see them coming up with a package for Quintana that does not seriously damage their rebuilding efforts It would take Crawford + Moniak to headline, plus considerably more to round out the package. Doesn't make much sense for Philly

QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Feb 7, 2017 -> 02:57 PM) I just like the idea of Glover being in the return for Robertson. No doubt it would take more than Glover even though I do have low expectations on Robertson's value at this point. Here's two interesting scenarios for the board. 1) Keep Robertson to hopefully build more value and trade at the deadline. Then make Jones the closer for the rest of '17 and hope he has some success and potentially traded as a closer next winter. Or 2) trade Robertson now for the best package possible. Make Jones the closer and hope he succeeds and potentially gets traded for a haul in July. Scenario #1 gives the best chance for maximum value if Robertson has a good first half and Jones becomes a solid closer in the second half. Those ifs do come with more risk and wait a bit longer for the rewards. Scenario #2 would mean taking potentially less now for Robertson but Jones' value could go up with some success as a closer in the first half and be traded for a haul in July when teams are more desperate. If the Nat's offered a nice package for Robertson I'd go ahead and take it, then move on. If Jones has success as a closer in the first half his value would jump alot. He would no longer be sold as a setup arm and instead as a Closer. Combine that with his contract and he makes for a very cheap and appealing closer at the deadline. I get what you are suggesting, but I think the reality is looking like Robertson is on the Sox until the trade deadline I'd much rather put him on the block when you have multiple contenders interested in adding bullpen help, and both he and Nate Jones could be moved for prospects If a good deal emerges now, you obviously take it. I doubt the Nationals are going to offer up enough to realistically get the Sox to move him though. We don't need the salary relief, we need prospects right now.

QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Feb 7, 2017 -> 01:39 PM) Yeah, I think the lack of K's hurts his perceived value in trade negotiations but is also an excuse to try and cut the cost down. My counter-point to that are the facts that Q pitches half of his games in a hitter friendly band box and yet still puts up the numbers of #1 or #2 pitcher while pitching 200 innings per year. Q would be the best overall pitcher on the Astros staff and Luhnow knows it. Luhnow just needs a bit more time to give up his prospect coddling ways. Learning to let go is never easy at first,lol. https://www.nj.com/phillies/index.ssf/2017/...a_to_phill.html A Quintana to the Phillies article?!? When will this all end??? haha

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Feb 7, 2017 -> 10:26 AM) Other than Lawrie, Isn't he just as likely to hit as anyone listed before him? At least he hits for power. I'd rather play him every day than waste any more time on Avisail Garcia. I like the bets hitter at #2 which is my I put Abreu there. Let Frazier and Melky rack up the RBI's and get them out of here. reasonable for Tilsen would be .250 average , .310 on base percentage, 5 homers, 18 steals, decent defense in center below average starter production, but solid for a 4th outfielder

QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Feb 7, 2017 -> 01:52 PM) I like the Glover idea. Pairing him with Burdi in the back end of the pen has all kinds of nasty potential. Glover is not a bad prospect, but I'd certainly aim for a higher return than him as a centerpiece If Robertson's pricetag were that low he would have been dealt already

QUOTE (pablo @ Feb 7, 2017 -> 12:31 PM) I think it fits the mold we have seen for a while now in that teams do not like mortgaging their future prospects unless it's for someone like Chris Sale. Dodgers, Yankees, Cubs, Astros etc. all want to build from within and add FA's if necessary. I don't think teams are all that worried about spending money, but prospects are another thing. No team likes dealing prospects, but that is the price of doing business Sox aren't going to give Robertson away unless they get decent value in return Proven mlb players will always have a prospect cost associated, unless it is a pure salary dump.

QUOTE (ChiSoxFanMike @ Feb 7, 2017 -> 12:22 PM) If Washington really wanted to win in the window in which they have Harper, they'd do something. It doesn't seem like that's the case though which is extremely puzzling. Hahn knows that the Nationals are not in a great place with regards to bullpen. They have Kelley and Treinen, but not much else that is reliable beyond that. Belisle had a nice season in 2016, but he turns 27 this season and is at the age where you can fall apart quickly. Solis is a decent pen arm, nothing spectacular The rest of the pen is not great Anything less than Fedde or Soto given our negotiating position would be disappointing

QUOTE (pablo @ Feb 7, 2017 -> 12:05 PM) I think you make very good points and I was surprised to see the Melancon/Robertson comparison favor Robertson slightly. But when you see the package Melancon brought which is essentially two high upside bullpen pieces, I have a hard time thinking that Robertson can bring back Soto or Kieboom, even with eating some money. They are a bit different situations in that Melancon was a pending FA, but he was also acquired in a pennant race when trades for relievers seem to go up. Yes the Sox can eat some Robertson money, but perception is that Robertson had a bad year last year which basically means the Sox "should" eat money to trade him. I view them as somewhat equal trade values which means we probably should not get our hopes up of getting Soto back (unfortunately). If we went with the Melancon deal as what we can expect, I would be up for a Glover + Luzardo package. EDIT: I think if the Nats were desperate enough, they would trade Soto considering he doesn't fit into their current contention plans. But Rizzo might be afraid to trade him considering the backlash he got on the Eaton deal. Soto is their #3 and Kieboom is their #4 organizational prospect(s) now. I cannot see Washington being willing to deal off much additional depth, but salary is also an issue. I'm not sure a deal gets done unless the Nats blink a considerable amount. I do not feel that either side is close based on what we are hearing

QUOTE (beautox @ Feb 7, 2017 -> 11:01 AM) I agree that washington failed to deliver on a closer but I don't think they're getting off the hook that easy. Mark Melancon is nearly the same age as Robertson and if you go buy WARP he put up 1.8 last year between the pirates and nats and 1.3 the year before while actually having confident catching and managing. David Robertson during that same stretch 1.7 and 1.5. Point I'm trying to make is based off this off season Robertson's contract is actually slightly under market as Melancon is going to make 15.5 for the next four years where as Robertson is going to make 12 and 13 respectively. If the sox want a great return then yes they'll likely kick in money and they should as his contract is dead money and its one of the ways to leverage an advantage now that caps are in place for nearly avenue of talent acquisition outside of free agency and international free agents that are over a certain age. I don't think the sox should be targetting the Stevensons' and Severino's of the world, they're going to need waves of talent to make this successful for a rebuild and would be better served aiming higher than a back up catcher with questionable framing and a middling starter / speedy 4th outfielder that can defend. I would like to see Hahn deliver something like this. Robertson and Lawrie to the nats for Kieboom, Soto, Luzardo and Watson. Nats get to keep Robles as the heir apparent to harper and pitching depth in Feede and Cole and their back up catcher in Severino. Sox get good high ceiling low floor assets across the board in Kieboom who could be moved off SS to 3B or C, Soto who is likely ticketed for LF and two left handed arms in Luzardo that had TJ and is coming back and Watson who has a lot of projection left. The Nationals are not sending us 4 top 15 organizational prospects for Robertson and Lawrie. They really hurt their system depth in the Eaton trade, and Rizzo is in the tough spot of not really being able to sell off much more depth without harming their future greatly

QUOTE (ChiSoxFanMike @ Feb 7, 2017 -> 10:31 AM) I could live with that for sure. Soto looks intriguing and the Sox should definitely throw in money if it improves the package coming back. There's no reason not to. Sox have plenty of payroll flexibility, the issue for them comes down to getting at least one or two solid prospects in return for him. Sox have never been an organization that loves to send a bunch of cash over in trades to make them happen, but in this case I think 6-8 million would make Robertson's deal a 2 year, 17-19 million deal. Which is not a horrible value for him at all

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Feb 7, 2017 -> 10:27 AM) I'm hoping Holland is decent enough to move in July for something. Best case scenario, Holland gives us a respectable first half and could be a flip candidate at the deadline. Worst case he gets injured Middle ground is he is a below average innings eater who gets us through this season

QUOTE (ChiSoxFanMike @ Feb 7, 2017 -> 10:20 AM) Agreed. They way overplayed their hand. They had a multitude of options and let them all go by. Now they have to get Robertson or they'll be burdened with a shaky bullpen for the beginning part of the season. I really think Washington tried to land free agent relievers but failed to sign any of them. Now they are sulking back to the White Sox complaining they can't pay money or prospects but want Robertson. Sox know they have the advantage because the Nats really do need him. Eventually I think they will bite the bullet and offer up a respectable package that includes either Fedde or Soto (likely Soto) plus another piece, which would be a quality move for the Sox We will eat 6-8 million of the contract to help offset some cost, and done deal

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 7, 2017 -> 08:58 AM) Exploring all options is usually code for doesn't like the market prices, so they are thinking about something unconventional. That could mean a lottery ticket, or a trade for someone that no one is talking about. For a team with world series aspirations the next two seasons, not having a proven backend of the bullpen can be a major issue. Say they roll with Treinen and Kelley as 8th and 9th inning options. That leaves them concerningly thin in the event one of them goes down with an injury. Bullpen issues could derail what is otherwise a championship caliber roster for the Nationals. I think they tried to get cute and have been burned by the market, now they might be forced into overpaying

QUOTE (bmags @ Feb 7, 2017 -> 08:39 AM) What stories has Sean Sears ever scooped? Nothing Sports Mockey is D-List journalism, if you can even call it that

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Feb 7, 2017 -> 08:35 AM) When I saw the name I knew it looked familiar. When I went to his twitter account and saw "Sports Mockery" I remembered why I knew him lol I laughed when I saw all the articles saying the issues were coming from the Nationals side, who do not want to absorb salary or move prospects for Robertson. I don't see a deal happening unless they cave

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Feb 6, 2017 -> 08:56 PM) Don't get me wrong, I'd love to get him for Robertson, but I just don't see it happening. At least not for the money I'd imagine we'd be willing to give up. If we can't get at least Soto, why trade him to the Nationals at all? I'd rather shop him at the deadline

QUOTE (reiks12 @ Feb 6, 2017 -> 09:06 PM) Martes Tucker Whitley Yada yada yada Pretty sure we have analyzed every single trade possibly for the entire league for quintana the last two months. Every teams farm combed through. I'm willing to be patient, but putting soxtalk out of its misery eventually will be a good day

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Feb 6, 2017 -> 08:24 PM) Yeah, Fedde is their last high-profile pitching prospect and I can't really seem him being moved under any circumstance. I think Kieboom is about as good as you can do in a Robertson trade without eating the vast majority of his contract (would still need to eat some though). If he's not available, I'd do a trade like what Y2Jimmy proposed. Nothing wrong with getting a couple far off, but high ceiling assets for Robertson. Juan Soto is a nice piece, perhaps along with severino?

QUOTE (beautox @ Feb 6, 2017 -> 03:09 PM) I feel the same, Severino is fine but if everything breaks right hes a back up on this team with Collins. I would prefer the sox eat as much of the contract to get the best package. If the nats have such a weak bench as well I would include Lawrie as it opens up spots for some final looks at Sanchez and Davidson once Frazier is moved. if the sox eat no money I would expect Erick Fedde + Tyler Watson if the sox include a healthy amount of money I don't see why Robles couldn't be on the table. I see no way the Nats move Robles when his timeline fits in with Harper's departure via free agency in two seasons Sox would be willing to eat salary and come to an agreement, but they are also weighing what is offered now with the potential offers they can get at the deadline If they aren't getting at least a top 100 prospect plus another piece in return I would pass on a deal. We could likely get more at the deadline. Make the Nats pay up.

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Feb 6, 2017 -> 12:48 PM) Lol yeah I'd rather just eat the 2 years of Shields. And hope he can pass by as a back-end starter for a team. The fans would riot if the Sox took a lesser package to salary dump Shields Shields will be here for the next two years, which is fine since we are rebuilding. Best case scenario is the Shields miraculously redeems himself enough this season to become a viable deadline trade chip (very wishful thinking)

QUOTE (Soha @ Feb 6, 2017 -> 12:29 PM) The reason to do the deal is Robles, who some think could be the best prospect in baseball very soon. Even a hypothetical Quintana to the Nats trade gets hairy. There's no way the Nationals could pull it off without completely gutting the farm that is already hurting for the loss of Giolito, Lopez and Dunning Robles + Fedde + Soto + Stevenson/Severino? I can't see the Nationals having enough left to convince the Sox I think we will be pleasantly surprised if a Robertson deal gets done what we get in return

QUOTE (Soha @ Feb 6, 2017 -> 12:10 PM) That said, if I'm the Sox - this would be a rare scenario where I would take a little bit less for Q or Robertson to get a deal done. Say the Sox gave up Quintana and Robertson for Robles + a few lottery tickets. What that immediately does is gives us 2 hitters with star potential in our system, with Robles and Moncada. It also makes the team significantly worse and thus, it drastically increases your chances of landing Seth Beer in the 2018 draft. And then we'd be flippin' loaded for the future if that all panned out. That makes zero sense Quintana and Robertson are totally different trade pieces and we should not have to compromise too much on either I don't think the Nationals have the prospects, or the desire to trade for Quintana