steveno89

QUOTE (NCsoxfan @ Jan 31, 2017 -> 01:23 PM) It sickens me that we are having to trade Q/Sale to get top 100 prospects and we traded a top 100 prospect in Tatis Jr. for James freaking Shields Tatis Jr has not proven anything yet, you can relax

QUOTE (pablo @ Jan 31, 2017 -> 12:46 PM) Agree with you in that a depth package can open the bidding to just about every team, but for most teams it would be at the expense of losing all their depth. In looking at Keith Law's top 10 farm systems (which ironically doesn't include the Astros), 5 of the systems would likely have no interest in Quintana or have shown no interest - Padres, Dodgers, Brewers, Mets, Reds. The remaining 4 teams - Braves, Yankees, Pirates, Rockies - have all been mentioned as teams that are possible destination. If you take my or raBBit's suggested depth package, the 4 remaining interested suitors likely could beat the Astros if they tried hard, but quite possible they don't offer as much. Maybe instead they offer one to two premium prospects in which the Sox would then have to decide between a star package or a depth package. My point being is the suggested depth packages do not necessarily affect what we have already discussed in these threads as the interested teams likely remain the same. It might change the interested teams Texas could be involved with a depth package, as could the Braves A Tucker headed depth package could be pretty easily beaten by another ballclub The reason no trade has happened yet is that the Sox are firm on the asking price, as they should continue to be. Hahn did say a deal was close on Christmas Eve, but fell through. Likely the result of the Yankees backing out of a three team deal involving the Pirates

QUOTE (Fantl916 @ Jan 31, 2017 -> 10:06 AM) he does paint a picture that i've thought for the last month or so... if for some reason Fulmer and Lopez end up in the bullpen we could back into a pretty amazing bullpen situation similar to the yankees/royals/indians of the past couple years. Burdi, Fulmer, Lopez in the 7th, 8th, 9th would be pretty sick. he also has pretty glowing comments on Curbelo and Dunning. havent seen these kind of positive comments about our depth in some time. He seems pretty high on Stephens saying he could be a fourth starter, but has a pretty good chance of becoming a 5th starter

QUOTE (pablo @ Jan 31, 2017 -> 11:44 AM) That's a done deal for me as well. Depending on how confident the Sox scouts are on Franklin Perez, I would take him instead of Paulino. Tucker, Perez, Fisher, Laureano/Stubbs and the 75th pick. It makes sense from the Astros perspective as well. They have tremendous OF depth in their system for essentially one OF spot in the big leagues with Springer and Reddick there for the foreseeable future. Additionally, they keep Musgrove, Martes and Paulino who are their two closest arms to the big leagues and could help in a playoff push this season. Teoscar Hernandez is ready to step into the OF in case someone goes down. From the Sox side, adding Martes or Paulino would be nice, don't get me wrong. But with Rodon, Giolito, Lopez, Fulmer, Kopech, Hansen etc, it makes sense to add a young projectible SP that could be in the next wave after these guys. And again, depending on how much the Sox scouts like him. The main issue with taking a package like that is that we essentially would be lowering the pricetag significantly for Quintana. If we would accept a depth package then over half the league should very much be in on him. Those are all nice prospects, but each come with some serious question marks. I am hesitant to deal a top 20 mlb starter on such a valuable contract for 4-5 "maybes". Our system needs depth for sure, but I'd rather acquire 3 very high caliber prospects than 4 good prospects and a draft pick We would be banking heavily on Tucker to reach his ceiling, and if he does not I'm not sure the rest of the package is enough to overcome that Quintana is a trade piece that can acquire a nearly untouchable prospect or two, and we should be looking for players that have potential allstar upside in return for him. Not just organizational depth

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Jan 31, 2017 -> 10:37 AM) So after all that you agree with what I posted initially. Martes + Tucker + 3rd piece + 75th pick. Only if the 3rd piece is of the AJ Reed or Franklin Perez caliber The draft pick does not do all that much for me. The chances a player pans out a #75 overall are probably about 5-10% chance at best

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Jan 31, 2017 -> 08:34 AM) That's 3 top 100 guys and Reed who was like a consensus top 30 last year. No chance they trade that much. I think the Sox should get somewhere between what Sale and Eaton returned, and neither Martes or Tucker are anywhere near the prospect Moncada is Kopech is roughly equal to the prospect value of Martes, possibly slightly more valuable at this point Moncada + Kopech > Martes + Tucker considerably. That means a third piece would have to be a significant prospect along the lines of Reed or Perez A 4th piece could be a lower level flyer Martes + Tucker + Reed/Perez + lower level flyer starts to move towards a deal

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Jan 31, 2017 -> 08:19 AM) No. That's the Cardinals actual 2nd rounder. From a surplus value standpoint, Quintana is worth roughly $133 million over the next 4 seasons Using fangraphs prospect surplus value as one way (not the only for sure) to evaluate prospect values Martes comes in at $39.00 million and Tucker comes in at $38.2 million for a total of $77 million. We are short easily 62 million in surplus value to make a deal happen I'd propose Martes + Tucker + Reed + Perez. Astros probably wouldn't do it, but it allows them to keep Paulino/Musgrove/Whitley/Fisher in their system

QUOTE (ChiSoxFanMike @ Jan 31, 2017 -> 07:59 AM) Unless the 3rd piece is good, I'm not too fond of this offer. I think the Sox could do better. The 75th overall pick is a complete crapshoot and nowhere near as valuable as a competitive balance pick right after the first round I would decline a Martes, Tucker + 75th overall pick in a heartbeat on a surplus argument alone How do the Sox go from reportedly asking for Musgrove + Martes + Tucker to accepting the 75th overall pick instead of Musgrove?? Massive value difference there

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 30, 2017 -> 08:23 PM) the trick then would be he'd be unlikely to add "Just 2 years" to his deal. If you want to extend him when he has 2 years left on his deal and he's still pitching like this, you're going to have to rip up the $20 million remaining on that deal and make it like 6/$150 or something like that. At the very least, you'd be paying a helluva lot for him when he's 35. You could do that too, but you've got to figure the price goes up the longer you wait. Eventually trading him is a much better move than extending a player who will be on the wrong side of thirty. We need the prospect haul q can bring to boost the rebuild

QUOTE (reiks12 @ Jan 30, 2017 -> 07:37 PM) I will be happy if he becomes a 3-4 WAR as long as Kopech reaches his ceiling and one of Basabe or Diaz becomes an above average player. That would be a massive trade win for the sox if basabe or Diaz becomes a 55 fv player in the majors

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 30, 2017 -> 08:13 PM) What kind of discount are we talking? If you offered him a boost right now to 6 years and $90 million, that adds 2 years to his deal at $25 million per year - he gets a vastly inflated contract value, far more monetary security, and the White Sox get him for those 2 years at a discount compared to what he'd be worth if he kept this up. Honestly I'm not sure I can remember a team doing a contract like that with a guy, but I'd consider it. Might have to up the dollar value to make it worth it to keep signing things like that - maybe all the way to $100 m over those 6 years so that the 2 extra years are $30 million years. Why bother when we are likely to trade him anyways? Sox could always talk about an extension if they decide to keep him two seasons from now

QUOTE (ChiliIrishHammock24 @ Jan 30, 2017 -> 05:59 PM) I would take Tellez, Bichette, McGuire for Robertson and $15M. Tellez, bichette and McGuire would be a solid return for Robertson for sure

QUOTE (BamaDoc @ Jan 30, 2017 -> 06:31 PM) If the Sox don't get an offer they like, what about an alternative. Consider, 1) Q has been a great teammate and never b****ed about anything publicly. 2) He has been good and durable. 3) Could he be a great mentor for the young guns coming and anchor the staff? He has a four year deal with the last two being options that are considered team friendly given his production. What if the Sox guaranteed those two years (good for him) added two additional option years at a reasonable/slight discount (good for Sox). You could give him a slight signing bonus now or have moderate buyouts on the options to further sweeten the deal for him and to provide he doesn't get jerked around with rumors a full no trade clause for a couple years and then maybe limited no trade after. I hate to say that I prefer trading him but if the offers really aren't there wouldn't this be a viable alternative? You could also do this after this season to minimize the Sox risk but if he has a bad year it hurts everyone. They absolutely should trade him to help boost the rebuild, but I get what your point is. Why extend quintana right now when we absolutely do not have to? Four sessions of control is a long time for a pitcher as it is. Capitalize on his value while we can

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Jan 30, 2017 -> 04:27 PM) I do feel like the Blue Jays will not end up paying the cost and am willing to bet Robertson is here until mid-season (assuming no injury). No reason to deal Robertson now unless the pricetag gets met

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Jan 30, 2017 -> 04:19 PM) Well that kinda goes without saying. After Vlad Jr., Reid Foley, Alford, Urena, Tellez their farm system drops off considerably At minimum one of those four players would have to be in a deal The three best prospects are Vlad Jr., Reid Foley and Urena, which all grade as B+ prospects Honestly, I'm not sure I see a deal getting done right now unless they wow us Robertson could be one of the better relief options at the deadline, and multiple suitors could drive up the price

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Jan 30, 2017 -> 04:14 PM) Yeah realistically, would you say $10 mill? 5 this year, 5 next. I could see the Sox eating 6-10 million of the contract, but that also will increase the return It will all come down to what prospects are coming to the Sox, who need the young talent far more than they need salary relief

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Jan 30, 2017 -> 04:08 PM) Eat the whole thing if you have to If the Sox eat the entire contract I would expect a pretty massive prospect return No way we pay $24 million for him to pitch for the Blue Jays without getting a haul More than likely, I could see the Sox being willing to pick up some of the contract in exchange for a nice prospect return

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 30, 2017 -> 03:51 PM) It is dated today. https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/news/why-the-ro...-185827010.html So far we have now heard the Nationals, Yankees and Blue Jays have shown interest in Robertson Sox do not really need salary relief and are much more interested in acquiring impactful talent in exchange for him

QUOTE (striker @ Jan 30, 2017 -> 03:42 PM) I doubt any of the offers on the table are laughable. I also don't view the Sox taking the best offer as desperate. We have to weigh our own risks in this process as well. Quintana's return is a huge key to the rebuild. If he get's injured or digresses, then that would be a huge hit to the rebuild process. Martes was picked up from the Marlins as a throw in. So just because the prospects involved aren't on a list yet doesn't mean we are settling. Apparently a deal was close on Xmas Eve, but fell through at the last minute (likely a three team deal with the Pirates and Yankees, likely the Yankees backed out)

QUOTE (steveno89 @ Jan 30, 2017 -> 03:33 PM) Juan Soto would be a great target from the Nats, but we might look for players closer to the mlb http://www.mlbdailydish.com/2017/1/30/1444...rtson-white-sox Just saw this article got posted, I wonder if it's old news or if it means talks have advanced?

QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Jan 30, 2017 -> 03:05 PM) Agree and that's why I think if the Nat's were willing to offer those three players for Robertson it would already be a done deal. IMHO, the Nat's might offer two of those three but not all three. Juan Soto would be a great target from the Nats, but we might look for players closer to the mlb

QUOTE (Con te Giolito @ Jan 25, 2017 -> 11:40 AM) I'll talk about the top 15 when FS releases the top 15. As for this list, I dont know I like a lot of the names here. Michalczewski is still only going to be 22 when the season starts and yea he's struggled lately but there was legitimate reason to be excited about him and he hasn't completely drowned despite being pushed through the org very aggressively. I think we could be pleasantly surprised by what he can do with a full year to catch his breath and repeat at Birmingham. This season is make or break for Michalczewski, as he really needs to show something or else he will be written off as a prospect I doubt he ever pans out as he has not displayed a decent enough hit tool to have much value

QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Jan 30, 2017 -> 02:39 PM) If the Nat's were willing to offer that deal I would think it would already be done. I would take that deal in a heartbeat though. Jones becomes the closer and could potentially bring a really nice haul in July. Everything would line up very well for the Sox. I don't think the Nationals offer Fedde + Voth + Severino though That would thin out their farm even more. Plus, what team trades arguably its 5 best pitching prospects in one offseason to the same team? Would be pretty unprecedented

QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Jan 30, 2017 -> 02:23 PM) I'd take that in a minute. Fedde has mid rotation potential, Severino can at least be a backup C at the MLB level with the potential to be an above average starter at the position. I don't know Voth, but the two other pieces are a solid enough base for me. It's doubtful that the Nats would deal Fedde, their minor league starting pitching depth has taken a huge hit already with the Eaton trade They have a stacked mlb rotation right now, but concerningly little minor league depth now. I think the sweet spot for a Robertson deal will be at the deadline

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Jan 30, 2017 -> 08:03 AM) Lol http://www.scout.com/mlb/rumors/story/1749...de-ideas-week-4 Scout.com proposes this deal for Robertson: Chicago White Sox receive: RHP Erick Fedde, RHP Austin Voth, C Pedro Severino Washington Nationals receive: RHP David Robertson I highly doubt a contender like the Nationals goes into the 2017 season without a true closer. Robertson is not elite, but at least he provides a league average closer for the Nats and helps bring stability to the back of the pen. If Washington would eat the entire contract I would consider that deal. Robertson's value could be considerable at the deadline though when he is owed less money on his contract