steveno89

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Jan 25, 2017 -> 04:03 PM) We go from Sale to Holland and Eaton's defense in RF to Avi's defense in RF. Whoever replaces Eaton's spot in the lineup isn't going to have as good a year as him. We have holes at C, DH, CF, basically 2B, and RF (and potentially SS if Anderson takes a step back). This team won't be better. I said magically haha As the roster is constructed today, we probably still win 70 games

QUOTE (GermanSock @ Jan 25, 2017 -> 03:35 PM) I think the Sox should lose a lot of games. People say itsomething OK as long your pick is top10 and that is not wrong but the higher the pick gets the higher the difference in value. The difference between 20th and 10th pick is much smaller than between 10 and 1. Of course plenty of times the number 1 pick busts and the 3 becomes a star but statistically the number 1 overall pick is by far the most valuable. For example the 10th picks produces 6 war over the control years on average which isn't even a league average player and the number 1 overall produces 20 war which is a star player. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-changin...of-draft-picks/ That doesn't mean the 10th player can't become a hall of famer but the chances are statistically much lower. Also every draft pick higher means more pool money which allows for more overslot signings in later rounds (for example difference between first and second overall is more than a million which basically is another second round pick). Of course the rebuild still doesn't hinge on one pick and the Sox can still succeed if the become 7th but the worse you are the the higher the incentive to be really big because the difference between 6th and 12th is not as significant as 6th vs 1st. So the Sox shouldn't lose on purpose but it wouldn't be the worst thing if they make it all the way to first or second overall. Even if we trade nearly all veteran players I do not think the White Sox will be the worst team in baseball. San Diego is trying hard to win less than 50 games with that starting rotation

QUOTE (Con te Giolito @ Jan 25, 2017 -> 03:54 PM) If all the Sox players have big seasons they won't be a bad team and there will be no deadline selling. If anything they'll buy. This won't be the Yankees last year, not with Ken Williams around. Then you'll get all sorts of nonsense like a big Frazier extension and selling the farm for aging sluggers. I don't trust the same FO that made the Shield's trade to not overreact fo a hot month or two. If the Sox are magically winning in 2017 then you absolutely run with it and see what happens If we are somehow in first place at the deadline then you certainly reevaluate your plans, but I doubt that will be the case. Far more likely that we are 15 games under

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Jan 25, 2017 -> 08:44 AM) Law thinks he's a reliever. I doubt he's on there if we haven't seen him yet. Fansided has lopez at #11 overall, hard to see a guy like that out of the top 100

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Jan 25, 2017 -> 08:29 AM) http://www.espn.com/blog/keith-law/insider/post?id=6248 No White Sox in Law's 41-60. I'm expecting just Moncada, Kopech, and Giolito. He has Fernando Tatis Jr at #47. Yes, that Fernando Tatis Jr. Tatis jr in the top fifty? Wow

QUOTE (bighurt574 @ Jan 24, 2017 -> 04:43 PM) Yeah, I'm hoping NYY or LAD are back in play at the trade deadline. LAD has a slew of starting pitching but also a lot of question marks. It's no huge surprise that BOS and WAS are the two teams to really pay up at this point. Prying top prospects out of small market teams who aren't even sure-fire contenders is a tough climb. Getting Pittsburgh to part with Meadows + significantly more is not going to happen. They totally rely on young cheap talent and cannot afford to sign big ticket free agents generally. The trade match just is not there at this point Boston is primed to win right now and can afford to give up Moncada + Kopech because they will have a multi year window with which to replace those prospects or sign big time free agents

QUOTE (bighurt574 @ Jan 24, 2017 -> 04:13 PM) Pretty much everyone left are small market franchises reluctant to trade away a bunch of prospects -- HOU, PIT, COL, ATL. And HOU is really the only immediate contender in that group. Perhaps that changes at the trade deadline with injuries, slumps, etc. Or a team like HOU mighFrankly, the Sox might want to wait and see how t realize they need a SP after all. I agree and have acknowledged that it is unlikely Quintana gets traded before spring training unless a new suitor emerges The small market teams like you mentioned are clinging to their top prospects and do not feel the urgent need as they might in a playoff race The Sox might want to wait and see how some top prospects perform in 2017 before pulling the trigger on a Q deal. He will still have tremendous value a year from now unless he gets injured or has an awful year. It's not always easy to line up two organizations needs and wants in a blockbuster trade. Hard to make each team feel like they "won" the deal

QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Jan 24, 2017 -> 02:04 PM) It's become clear to me that a trade with the Pirates is not happening. With Meadows and Bell reportedly off the table and Glasgow having control/command/change-up issues, Huntington and the Pirates are just not a fit. I still think it's possible Q is traded, just not to the Pirates. Still curious about what the Braves may have offered. Not really buying the Newcomb rumor since he's the closest to the majors and expected to replace one of the geriatrics at some point this season. Hahn has 2-3 years to trade Quintana if he wants to The market may very well be tapped out right now and it might actually be best to reevaluate at the trade deadline Fleecing a contender at the deadline would really feel great

QUOTE (hi8is @ Jan 24, 2017 -> 03:46 PM) Steve Adams of MLBTR today responding to a fans hypothetical trade of Dahl and Hoffman for Q. hi8is commentary: They're a Rodgers short. Dahl + Hoffman is a start, but significantly more would have to be added to that deal I agree with add in Rodgers and we'd be moving closer to a deal

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Jan 24, 2017 -> 11:43 AM) I didn't rank Diaz in my Top 30. I think he's Robin Leyer with a couple extra ticks. Interesting to be sure, but I can't see him above the other guys I ranked. Hopefully he develops to be more than that, but right now he's on my radar but not a T30 name. Diaz is a total lottery ticket Much less of a track record than Leyer, but also better performance in what little track record he has In 2016 Diaz posted a FIP of 3.19...not too shabby

QUOTE (Con te Giolito @ Jan 24, 2017 -> 02:01 PM) Fangraphs has a lot of very lazy analysis and aside from their prospect stuff I don't take any of it seriously. A lot of them just coming up w an idea and finding the stats to prove it rather than the other way around. Comparing McHugh as being roughly equal to Quintana was where that article loses me It cherry picked stats while ignoring huge WAR differences Quintana in the past 4 season = 18.1 WAR McHugh in the same time span = 7.8 WAR McHugh's performance has gotten worse each of the past two seasons and he is now in the #4/#5 starter territory Quintana is a #1 on most teams and a #2 on a world series contender

QUOTE (Con te Giolito @ Jan 24, 2017 -> 01:29 PM) Rodon was drafted and signed because of an agreement between the Sox and Boras to get Rodon to the majors ASAP. Touching on Quintana, and then Rodon: The more I look at Quintana's stats and contract, the more I completely understand his lofty pricetag. Undoubtedly he is a top 20 mlb starting pitcher, which rarely get traded. Couple that with such a team friendly contract, anything less than an overwhelming prospect return should be turned down. Obvious? Yes, but we need to be patient and insist on the high pricetag. We all want this rebuild to move along quickly, but we have to recognize that tossing us a few top 100 prospects (while keeping the cream of the crop off the table) plus some lottery tickets is not fair value for Quintana. On Rodon: Second half stat splits do not always carry over, but in a young pitcher those splits can be more instructive. Rodon pitched 73 innings in the second half posting a 3.45 ERA, 9.5 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9. Unsurprisingly, his home run rate (0.99) and BABIP against (.303) normalized. If that was the beginning of what kind of pitcher Rodon is going to be now, we are looking at No. 2 starter ceiling.

QUOTE (Harry Chappas @ Jan 24, 2017 -> 12:53 PM) I wish they would have been slower with Rodon and Anderson. Rodon would not have needed much time in the minors before he would clearly be ready to take his lumps at the mlb level I really think this is the season that Carlos breaks out and establishes himself

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 24, 2017 -> 12:18 PM) So his BB/9 was about half a walk less, and that was at the major league level, and not the minors. Rodon's scouting report has always been 50 grade control, which he really improved upon in 2016...Glasnow is nearly the same age and regressed in 2016 Whereas Glasnow is 40/45 grade at best control

QUOTE (NCsoxfan @ Jan 24, 2017 -> 12:12 PM) Huh, based on Law's writeup of the Pirates' Ke'Bryan Hayes, he seems like a pretty solid 3B prospect. "... is an elite defensive third baseman right now...Hayes is going to post OBPs that are at least in the mid-.300s, maybe with 35 doubles and 10-12 homers, though the Pirates hope for a little more than that...." I get Hayes is young for low A ball, but a 5.5% walk rate does not scream "future mid .300's OBP player" Law is referring purely to ceiling on Hayes. He still has a long way to go to prove a top 75 prospect ranking.

QUOTE (bighurt574 @ Jan 24, 2017 -> 12:12 PM) That's really the problem with any prospect trade. Teams generally know their own prospects pretty well. I forget where, but there was a column a month or two back (probably right after the Sale/Eaton deals) comparing top prospects who were traded and those who weren't. The former didn't fair nearly as well in the long run, as you'd probably expect. There are obviously exceptions. Teams can certainly give up a young guy they really like if the return is worth it. http://piratesbreakdown.com/2017/01/19/pit...lasnow-bullpen/ That is concerning to see as well^ Glasnow's changeup is currently below average and the control is a big concern. Dave Cameron suggests his stuff is not that special and the control is terrible. If the Sox liked him that much a deal would already be worked out for Quintana.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Jan 24, 2017 -> 11:14 AM) I'm not sure how you can call Bell a "true top tier guy" but not include Glasnow. You may not be high on Glasnow, but a recent poll of GMs ranked him the 2nd best pitching prospect in the game. He may not fit our needs, but he'd almost universally be considered a top tier guy by most experts and held in higher regard than Bell. Also, I think your asks above are completely unrealistic. I'd expect much lesser secondary pieces if Meadows was the headliner. Dooduh: Let’s try this again…. why would Glasnow + Bell + 3rd prospect not be enough for the ChiSox to pull the trigger for Quintana? That is a strong package and there’s little reason to believe they are getting any more than that… and holding him accepts risk of poor performance impairing his value. They are not going to get Meadows by holding out any longer. This has to be just a matter of time, no..? Dave Cameron: I think Pirates fans are a lot higher on Glasnow than non-Pirates fans. The command is terrible and the stuff isn’t that special. He’s not good enough to be the primary piece in a Quintana trade. Dave Cameron of Fangraphs explains why Glasnow is not good enough to be the main headliner in a Quintana deal here

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Jan 24, 2017 -> 11:14 AM) I'm not sure how you can call Bell a "true top tier guy" but not include Glasnow. You may not be high on Glasnow, but a recent poll of GMs ranked him the 2nd best pitching prospect in the game. He may not fit our needs, but he'd almost universally be considered a top tier guy by most experts and held in higher regard than Bell. Also, I think your asks above are completely unrealistic. I'd expect much lesser secondary pieces if Meadows was the headliner. Bell from the standpoint of his bat is legit He can flat out hit for average and draw walks. The power is coming along as well. He should be a middle of the order bat for the foreseeable future for the Pirates. The Sox could use a guy like that at 1B or DH, but doubtful Pittsburgh would include him as they need him to start at 1B this season

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Jan 24, 2017 -> 11:14 AM) I'm not sure how you can call Bell a "true top tier guy" but not include Glasnow. You may not be high on Glasnow, but a recent poll of GMs ranked him the 2nd best pitching prospect in the game. He may not fit our needs, but he'd almost universally be considered a top tier guy by most experts and held in higher regard than Bell. Also, I think your asks above are completely unrealistic. I'd expect much lesser secondary pieces if Meadows was the headliner. Acquiring Quintana is one thing, getting value in return for his extremely valuable contract is another The cost to sign a free agent starter like Quintana on the open market is likely +$25 million per year Glasnow is top tier, albeit with a considerable amount of risk due to contol issues. He could be a really good reliever, but will be given the opportunity to start. The fact that the Pirates seem to want to include him big time vs. Bell and Meadows should really tell you something. If they were that confident that he would pan out there is no way they would trade him when he could be under cheap control for years. I'd love to add Glasnow to our system as a high ceiling starter, but even moreso as the second piece along with Meadows Meadows + Glasnow + one to two more pieces would be a great deal for the Sox and allow for the Pirates to keep guys like Bell/Newman/Keller/etc

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Jan 24, 2017 -> 11:02 AM) I'd do Glasnow/Keller/Newman/Hayes in a heartbeat, but it seems like a ridiculous ask IMO. I'd take that as well, Diaz is not even necessary Most I can see them offering (unless they cave on Meadows and/or Bell) is Glasnow + Keller + Newman or Hayes + one lower level prospect

QUOTE (reiks12 @ Jan 24, 2017 -> 10:57 AM) Rodon had a 4.6 BB/9 as a 22 year old. At the mlb level...not minors Rodon was thrown into the fire quickly without much minor league development. Glasnow has spent far more time in the minors and the control regressed last season to over 5.2 BB/9 in the minors While Glasnow posted an impressive 1.87 ERA in the minors, his FIP was 2.93 in 2016. Still very good, but over a full run higher than his ERA. I like him alot as a prospect, but the free passes will burn him big time at the MLB level

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Jan 24, 2017 -> 10:48 AM) Law will definitely be the high man on Newman too. Bet he has him top 30. Law is high on younger players it seems. I'm no expert, but I would tend to favor prospects further along in their development in the top 100 until they have proven more in the minor leagues Delvin Perez has talent, but #61 based on his play in rookie ball (admittedly impressive for an 18 year old) is high Law's rankings look smart for picking players that could rise up, but also I'll bet alot of these deep dives are out of the top 100 by mid season due to over projection

QUOTE (raBBit @ Jan 24, 2017 -> 10:49 AM) Q would be in Pittsburgh if this offer was on the table. That is the Pirates #2, #3, #4, #5 and Diaz is somewhere from #8-#12. This trade would make a top ten farm system a bottom third farm system. Exactly No way the Pirates offer up 5 top 15 prospects for one player 3 or 4 tops The Pirates would be destroying their future with that proposal

QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Jan 24, 2017 -> 10:41 AM) I would take that deal. Depending on who is doing the evaluation, Glasnow's stock has taken quite a bit of a hit as he has not been able to develop command of the strike zone. Giolito has the same concerns which caused him to slip from being the #1 pitching prospect in baseball. Keller has #2 or three upside and has just started blowing up a lot safer bet than Glasnow to make it as a starter. Hayes is an upside guy that can fit into the window with the young offensive core, Newman can be insurance against some of the other middle IF's busting and give the Sox some flexibility. Diaz could be a place holder at C for a few years, as a 26 year old rookie, there isn't a lot of upside. He can bring some stability to the position and at least be the backup C on the next Sox playoff team. If they offer : Glasnow + Keller + Newman + Hayes + Diaz That would completely clear out their minor league system, I do not see that happening. When was the last 5 for 1 trade we have seen happen? I'd expect a 3 or 4 player offer

QUOTE (raBBit @ Jan 24, 2017 -> 10:36 AM) I am sure Law will be as high on him as anyone. Law was a huge fan of Hayes when he was a draft prospect. Essentially said that he was a high school athlete who will hit but doesn't have a position. Since going pro, Hayes has really taken to 3B. I think Hayes is a big breakout guy this year and perhaps Law wants to be on the "I told you so" side of that. I'm not knocking him as a prospect, but it seems early to place Hayes in the top 75 prospects based on 65 minor league games in which he held his own, but was not spectacular or anything That ranking is a full season of quality production and proven health ahead of where it should be in my opinion