shysocks

QUOTE (SoxPride18 @ Jan 28, 2016 -> 11:37 AM) Shysocks mentioned this in the miscellaneous thread, but I think this deserves it's own thread. These are amazing. https://twitter.com/whitesox/status/692760769218236416 They've really been ramping up use of the '83 logo for a while now, I wonder if we're headed that way as a permanent alternate or something.

Like these a lot. https://twitter.com/whitesox/status/692760769218236416

QUOTE (bigruss22 @ Jan 28, 2016 -> 10:54 AM) Edited the title to make it seem more like a proposal then a done thing to avoid any confusion. QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Jan 28, 2016 -> 10:56 AM) shysocks is a snakeoil salesman like that. you gotta watch him close

QUOTE (OmarComing25 @ Jan 28, 2016 -> 10:55 AM) If we're willing to take on almost the entire salary, he should cost less than we what gave up for Lawrie. That's what I assume. If they want more, especially if it approaches the value of a comp pick, you say no thanks.

The more money you ask the Dodgers to send over, the less it makes sense. I think you minimize the cost in young talent and just take the whole contract. If I were okay with giving up more in prospects, I'd just advocate for signing Fowler. Ethier earned his money last year as a platoon player, posting 2.9 WAR despite fewer than 50 PA's against lefties. I don't see why he can't do it again.

I want to point out a great post from the Fowler thread. QUOTE (dmbjeff @ Jan 28, 2016 -> 03:02 AM) Did you know Fowler is 25th among all active players in OBP according to baseball-reference and is based upon their parameters of 3000PA or 500 games played? Did you also know that every player higher than him on that list has had a 20+ HR season before? Every player on the list outside of Joe Mauer are still legit threats to hit 20+ HR a year still. Fowler is very elite OBP guy and considering nearly everyone ahead of him has the benefit of being pitched around due to their big time power. He has really elite OBP skills for not being a power hitter. I cut it off early, so click on the little arrow up there to see the rest. That is a good, compelling argument, but I think in general people are underestimating the money Fowler will get and are too quick to dismiss the value of the comp pick. I'm focused on the guy one spot below Fowler on that active career OBP list, Andre Ethier. Ethier has done it playing his entire career in a pitchers' park rather than mostly in Colorado. The Sox should trade for him for a number of reasons. 1) The most important is that he is a hitting machine. All he does is slap up seasons with 15 homers, a .360 OBP, and solid health. He does it year after year, with one ugly outlier in 2014. 2) He is left-handed, which will help balance the lineup, and he tortures right-handed pitching (.304/.383/.507 career). Unfortunately he has never been good against lefties, and we might even benefit from sitting him against them in favor of Avi or Jerry Sands. The Sox performed second-worst in the majors against left-handed pitching last year and you might say that adding Ethier would exacerbate things, but the addition of Todd Frazier (.833 OPS career against lefties) and a likely correction in Jose Abreu's splits (.658 OPS vs LHP in 2015, 1.098 in 2014) will offset any additional problems caused by Ethier. 3) He is primarily a corner outfielder so he doesn't require us to move Eaton around, something I'm not a big fan of. He got bad defensive marks at the beginning of his career, but in the last five years both DRS and UZR have him as essentially average. I would like a good fielder, I really would, but Ethier is a guy I can live with. 4) I'm only guessing here, but there are a lot of things that will conspire to make the cost of acquiring him even less of a blow to our minors than giving up the Samardzija pick. His age (34 in April), his salary ($36.5M guaranteed over two years), the Dodgers' jam-packed outfield (Puig, Pederson, Crawford, Van Slyke, Thompson), Ethier's 10-and-5 rights that kick in at the start of the season, his unhappiness with the Dodgers in the past... Trade rumors have bounced around him for years and while they might rather move Crawford, if the Dodgers are in any way inclined to get rid of Ethier, they are better off doing it now before his no-trade limits the market. I don't think you'd have to dig real deep in the system to get Ethier as long as you're willing to take his contract. I understand the reservations people will have about his age, the money, the fact that he is an NL lifer (though I particularly don't share that concern). Maybe you'd like more power but we're hard-pressed to find that now. It is not a slam dunk, but he is a really good hitter who would fit into our lineup terrifically. If we supposedly had the money to chase Gordon and Cespedes but were concerned about the length of their deals, well here's a pretty friggin' good alternative.

Yeah I'm not sure why anybody would argue that the Sale contract is anything less than gosh darn delightful for the Sox.

QUOTE (CB2.0 @ Jan 27, 2016 -> 01:43 PM) Yeah, seems so. Quintana is expected pitch nearly identical number of innings as Sale, yet yield 30 more hits to 40 more batters faced. And again - how are we getting 16HRs and 52 RBIs from a guy that was released outright....a year ago? Projection systems always spit out inexplicable quirks like that. Steamer is a special offender, always having tons of guys with one plate appearance yet a triple slash like .236/.291/.358 (that's 2016 Paul Konerko).

Errors are bad. I don't think anybody is disputing that. I'd like it if Sox players never made errors. But they're just a deficient way of judging a fielder. They don't tell you nearly enough. I don't even know if a guy who leads the league in errors at his position is good or not.

QUOTE (Pants Rowland @ Jan 26, 2016 -> 04:21 PM) Is my math/technique off, or did they project a 29 WAR last year? You got it, at least from the little image. Turns out they were optimistic.

QUOTE (Dunt @ Jan 26, 2016 -> 03:54 PM) Yeup. A 38 WAR basically equated to a playoff team last year. Loving those projections, time to address RF and be done for the offseason. If these are accurate that's great. Q finally gets a little love from ZiPS. Optimism around Saladino, catchers, bullpen surprises me. The last may be Nate Jones related?

Last year's, for reference/pointing and laughing purposes. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2015-zips-p...cago-white-sox/

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 26, 2016 -> 03:42 PM) https://twitter.com/cistulli/status/692087588992057344 Was about to create this thread. We could use an outfielder - anybody noticed that yet? Full post at fangraphs coming tomorrow. Comes out to 38 WAR from the chart, 19 from the pitching staff and 19 from the lineup. 38 WAR roughly vaguely sorta translates to about an 86-76 record which is significantly better than I would have guessed.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jan 26, 2016 -> 02:21 PM) I'd honestly rather have Carl Crawford at half price and Desmond than pay Ethier AND give up talent to boot. Crawford would have to morph into more of a power guy like Tim Raines later in his career. It could work at USCF. It worked well with Thome, just not sure how much LA is willing to eat. In terms of risk, it's still fairly significant even at half off discount...ala Ryan Braun or Jay Bruce. At least Harrelson and KW would be elated for awhile. First, Carl Crawford =/= Jim Thome. Second, what's this half price stuff? Are the Red Sox paying a big piece of Crawford's salary and I'm not aware of it? Even if that's the case I'd still rather have Ethier by a mile. He has a massive edge in durability and OBP.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 26, 2016 -> 01:21 PM) No matter what you think of the pick, this is twisted logic. Saying that the 28th pick hasn't been good rarely, so we shouldn't care about picking 28th is silly. The 2015 draft shows why the draft pool is nice. We basically got two quality draft picks in the first 10 rounds, and then had to fill it up with slot/under slot signings to fit Zangari in. Also, you can isolate the history of the 1st pick and examine it. You can examine the history of the #2 pick. I feel like looking specifically at the 28th pick isn't that informative. Look in the general area of 28. What about the 29th pick? In the past 15 years that pick has resulted in Adam Wainwright, Carlos Quentin, Lonnie Chisenhall, and Joe Panik. Holy s*** man, that's some talent. It's also produced its share of duds, and 27 and 28 don't have nearly that measure of success, but the point is you can land a good player that late in the draft. I am not advocating keeping this pick above all else. Other moves this offseason have traded the future for now, and I'm a believer in a consistent strategy. What I am advocating is giving it up only for the right player. Otherwise, keep it and use it to help build. I think that, given the availability of Austin Jackson, using the pick on Dexter Fowler would be unwise.

QUOTE (blackmooncreeping @ Jan 26, 2016 -> 12:45 PM) Yep, agreed. We can either ask for $$ coming back in the deal, or somehow get the Dodgers to include Laroche. Seems like this deal almost makes too much sense for both clubs and I'd be surprised if it isn't being discussed...at least the Either part of it, and figure out the details later. Ethier's name has floated around White Sox forums literally forever. At some point he's bound to be on the team.

QUOTE (SoCalSox @ Jan 26, 2016 -> 12:36 PM) People acting like that draft slot is just some sure thing confuse me. For as many Mike Trouts, there are 3-5X as many players who simply don't work out. Drafting is a calculated risk, more-so than a FA such as Fowler, IMO. I don't think anybody is calling it a sure thing. The point is that when a pick hits it's worth so very much. And while it's easy for us fans to ask for all the free agents and assume it's only money, committing that money and potentially hamstringing other moves carries just as much risk as anything. We've already seen this offseason that money tied up in LaRoche played a role in preventing activity. QUOTE (SoCalSox @ Jan 26, 2016 -> 12:38 PM) [/b] He averages about 2 WAR per year. I'd say that's a little better than average. He's just about to turn 30, too. He still has some good years left, plus the eye test tells me he's a bit better defensively than broken defensive metrics. 2 WAR is the definition of average. I'm not being a smartass. That's what average is.

QUOTE (Knackattack @ Jan 26, 2016 -> 12:31 PM) I can't see Fowler getting more than 3/36 or 4/45 I guess we'll find out. I can imagine $15M a year pretty easily.

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Jan 26, 2016 -> 12:27 PM) Haha I think everyone would be. While that specific offer might not work, Ethier should still be a target. The cost to get him would be pretty low. Not the type of thing that would gut the system.

QUOTE (SoCalSox @ Jan 26, 2016 -> 12:26 PM) Fowler would make a ton of sense for this team. If he didn't have a pick attached, I feel like most fans would be pounding the table for him right now, personally. Can probably get him on a 3 year deal at $11-13M AAV. The draft pick isn't my only reservation with Fowler. I think he'll cost more than that, and I'd also prefer a more talented defender.

QUOTE (shipps @ Jan 26, 2016 -> 10:38 AM) Thats what FO seems to be banking on that from someone next year in that OF spot. But the thing that pisses me off is that when you do that 9 times out of 10 it doesnt work out for you...and those odds are probably being nice. Maybe Saladino's the guy to surprise us. They clearly love him, because Alexei signed elsewhere for peanuts (and I'd never be mistaken for Alexei's biggest fan) and I don't think they've even been linked to Desmond. Squint and you can see a 3 WAR season out of him. We have a few guys like that. The problem is we have to squint.

Also feel free to steal my Outfielder Store analogy, it's pretty brilliant.

I'm by far the most pissed about Gordon. That was an extremely beatable deal he took, even factoring in the hometown discount. Anyway, wipe away all the caveats and if's and but's and focus on this remaining fact: The Sox went to the Outfielder Store, plenty of beautiful specimens were on display, and now most of them are gone while we're still pushing an empty shopping cart. I usually try not to be this blunt, I like to think I'm not on the whiner list, but that is a f***-up by the front office. I can't see it any other way. Maybe we'll get lucky with the eventual solution and Austin Jackson will pull a Victorino and have an outsized career year for no reason. That's about what we need to be a real contender right now.

I've come around a lot on Desmond and he's very intriguing. There are reasons to be afraid - his slow but clear downward offensive trend, the draft pick (which forces the Sox to either seek a longer deal to maximize the pick's value while nullifying Tim Anderson, or swallow deep and give up the pick for one year of Desmond). But if his price is really as dirt cheap as it seems and we have a shot at a 20-20 guy, you gotta think about it.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jan 26, 2016 -> 06:10 AM) Seems pretty simple to track players who had similar swing percentages at age 23-25 and see how many of them came out of it to consistently post 775-825+ ops numbers...since that's what he would need as a negative defensive contributor. Here's a leaderboard of guys that age in the last 30 years with the highest single-season chase percentage. There are ways to be productive at the plate if you're a hacker, but most of them involve hitting for some power. Avi is clearly in rarefied air here. You can't even compare him to anybody. He's at the top. SMDH.