shysocks

30/100 is a lot rarer today than it was back in 2001-2002. Now Pujols broke in with 37/130 and 34/127, so that's a different story.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Sep 10, 2015 -> 04:07 PM) So, while waiting for a meeting earlier today, I was screwing around with baseball contracts because why not. I compiled the top 31 contracts signed for people who were free agents last offseason - 31 was chosen because that's how many players signed $10 million total value deals or more. Basically an arbitrary cutoff but it does a good job of including anyone who got "decent' money. I then rapidly scrolled through their fWAR and divided their contracts up evenly into years. For simplicity I ignored the slight increases that happen yearly in some of these contracts and just averaged over the full contract. The cutoff is right after Luke Hochevar. What I was looking for was...given their performance this year, what was the total amount spent per fWAR on the free agent market? I did a bit of a rough scaling to account for the fact that we're 85% of the way thorugh the season and assuming people would keep piling up fWAR at the same rate for the last 15%. Given where we are now, the average price of 1 fWAR amongst well-paid free agents last offseason comes to about $9.4 million. If you factor in the fact that some guys contracts inflate with time, if you wanted to buy 1 fWAR on the free agent market last offseason it cost about $9 million plus an additional commitment the next year. That blew my mind. We talk about teams spending $6 million or so per fWAR on the free agent market, but spending last year was so ineffective that 1 fWAR cost over $9 million on average. I think that really hits home how ineffective it is to spend money on the FA market if you're trying to significantly overhaul a franchise, at least to me. That's good stuff, thanks for the research. Just want to point out that I think the $6M per WAR figure is a little dated, people have been placing it at $7M or above for quite a while now. But nobody had it above $9M.

I could still be right on. Don't rule out an 18-6 finish. DON'T DO IT.

QUOTE (Swingandalongonetoleft @ Sep 10, 2015 -> 02:39 PM) David Ortiz sits at 498. I hope a fastball hits him in the hand to stop that nonsense from going any further. It's gonna be real confusing when he gets into the Hall and Manny Ramirez doesn't.

QUOTE (JUSTgottaBELIEVE @ Sep 10, 2015 -> 11:42 AM) That's all good except for the fact that he also hit 311 on the road in 2013 Fine, but he had an ENTIRE SEASON between switching leagues and winning the batting title. He does not support your argument. He is a bad example.

QUOTE (JUSTgottaBELIEVE @ Sep 10, 2015 -> 11:18 AM) Agreed Coors provides an advantage but enough that a 34 year old wins his first batting title after never hitting over 284 in the AL? I thought it was stated previously that the free agents I pointed out were bad examples because they were over 30 years old? What? I didn't even say anything about the other guys. I said Cuddyer doesn't support your point. He hit .260 his first year in Coors and then hit .331 the next one. How can you possibly attribute that to changing leagues? And for the record, the Rockies are hitting .301 at Coors this season and .233 elsewhere. In the last five years they've hit no lower than .274 at home and no higher than .246 away. So yes, it is possibly enough for a 34-year-old to win his first batting title after never hitting over .284 in the AL.

QUOTE (JUSTgottaBELIEVE @ Sep 10, 2015 -> 10:51 AM) I am open to other examples that refute the theory Which I told you I'm not interested in finding. QUOTE (JUSTgottaBELIEVE @ Sep 10, 2015 -> 10:54 AM) if it was that simple why wouldn't the NL batting champ every season reside in Colorado? He wasn't saying it was that simple, but Coors field provides an undeniable increase to hitters' numbers. Your example of Cuddyer makes no sense anyway. His first year in the NL was worse than his last in the AL. The NL is so bad, but it took him a year to realize that?

QUOTE (pettie4sox @ Sep 10, 2015 -> 10:23 AM) They will adjust to Trayce but the real question is will he adjust to them. That AB on Monday in the 9th inning showed me that the kid atleast has a clue. Avi needs some serious f***ing work but I wouldn't necessarily give up on him. They should try him at 3B.

QUOTE (JUSTgottaBELIEVE @ Sep 10, 2015 -> 10:21 AM) Let's look at the top hitters to change leagues in the 2014-2015 off season and how they have fared this season after spending the entire season in the other league during the prior season: Hanley Ramirez (NL to AL): D significantly Pablo Sandoval (NL to AL): D significantly Russell Martin (NL to AL): D significantly Nori Aoki (AL to NL): NC - shortened season due to injury Nick Markakis (AL to NL): I slightly Adam Laroche (NL to AL): D significantly Legend: I = increased offensive production D = decreased offensive production NC = relatively no change in offensive production Not gonna bother disputing your general point, but I have a problem with a couple of those names. You can blame a lot of Hanley's season on age/injury/his general inconsistency, and Russell Martin is just kind of returning to normal after a career year. Assigning their declines to the league change just seems like shoehorning in a theory.

QUOTE (fathom @ Sep 9, 2015 -> 03:41 PM) Wow, huge win for Cardinals! Pedro Strop:

Good thing Saladino is hitting second again.

QUOTE (BrianAnderson @ Sep 9, 2015 -> 01:02 PM) I've learned in my time posting on this board regardless of what I say ShySocks, you will always disagree with it. You want stats? I'll give you stats. I believe I've made my point clear, and I've explained it with stats and clear reasoning, but if you'd like more, I'll do it. This one is actually pretty easy to explain. They both started their MLB careers at 26 years old. In that time Freese has played 697 games, Alexei has played 1205. Why is this stat important? He is more reliable -- by almost double. Next year when Freese gets injured and a team has to go pick up a Connor Gilaspie or play a Matt Davidson or Mike Olt at 3B, that would hurt the overall stats and production of that position. For Production? They have struck out exactly the same amount times. Cant make that up. Stats dont lie. 578 times. Alexei in 4910 AB's. Freese in 2645 AB's. 221 Doubles for Alexei. 127 for Freese. 108HR to 65. 534 RBI to 338. 234 BB to 214BB. This is where playing more games helps! Backups are backups for a reason, when you are hurt you can't produce, and the player who does take your position generally can't put up the numbers like the starter. .274 BA for Alexei to .276 for Freese (Wooooo!!! A stat in your favor) OPS of .759 to .711 in favor of Freese. Freese is going to be 33, Alexei 34. Neither are young. 135 SB for Alexei, 8 for Freese. 121 Errors for Alexie at SS in 1081 games versus 63 errors in 638 games. Essentially 1 every 10 games for each, but Alexei playing a tougher position. What other stats do you want me to put out there? I'm taking Alexei for $10mm over Freese for $7mm plus $1mm buyout for Alexei. I've had exactly one exchange with you before this one. It ended with you calling me a dumbass. Not exactly indicative of me always disagreeing with you. Either way, if you don't like people disagreeing with you, don't post on a message board. There are a few problems with all of the above. One, you're citing a bunch of numbers that are either unimportant or dependent on playing time. You act like Alexei is twice as reliable. His ability to stay on the field is definitely an asset, but Freese didn't break into the majors and start right away. That's more responsible for the large gap than anything. Since Freese's first full year as a starter, he's played in 513 games to Alexei's 607. You act like Alexei's 108 homers to 65 are an advantage when they're mostly the result of that initial playing time gap. Batting average is overrated. You can talk about "spreadsheets blah blah blah" all you want, but an offense with a good OBP and slugging - areas where Freese is decidedly better than Alexei - is more likely to score runs than one with a good batting average. RBI's are dumb and I'm sure you've heard the reasons why by now. Stolen bases and strikeouts just don't matter in today's baseball. Sort the teams by SB and K's and look at how randomly their runs scored jump around. Errors? Surely you know they're an inadequate way of measuring defense. Two, you're ignoring home parks. Ramirez has hit a homer once every 45.5 plate appearances to Freese's 40.7. Not that big a deal, but this difference is made more notable by the fact that Freese has played in stadiums that suppress home run power while Alexei has played in one that enhances it. Same goes for Freese's advantage in OPS, one that you glossed over up there but is easily the most important stat mentioned. Check out their home road splits. Three, you're citing career stats. I hardly care what somebody did five years ago. It's almost irrelevant. Freese hit like a bona fide stud for a little while, but that hitter is gone. In his place is a hitter who is still better than Alexei Ramirez. Last three years - that cutoff is a favor to you because it leaves out Freese's best season - Freese has hit .258/.326/.389 to Ramirez' .272/.302/.385. Alexei's key advantages are his offense relative to his position, an advantage you would be eliminating by pushing him to third, and his defensive ability, which is eroding. If I'm paying them the same amount to play third base next year, I am absolutely taking Freese. If you want to continue to argue and talk about RBI's, fine, but know that I don't care.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Sep 9, 2015 -> 11:05 AM) 670 The Score ‏@670TheScore 1h1 hour ago Jeff Samardzija is unlikely to return to the #WhiteSox, writes @MLBBruceLevine: http://cbsloc.al/1MbiY0Y What's interesting in there is that he calculates a qualifying offer at $17.1 million. That's the first I've seen of somebody putting an exact number on it.

QUOTE (Jenksismyb**** @ Sep 9, 2015 -> 10:25 AM) What's different about it? Assuming the image on the ticket page is what the court will actually look like, compare it to the design here: http://grantland.com/features/nba-court-de...power-rankings/ Looks like they perhaps made the logo at center court a little bigger and got rid of the basketball behind it. Black lines on the court, instead of white in the paint with red arcs and a red halfcourt line. More understated font on the baselines, and the stars of the Chicago flag on the bottom sideline. Not sure I agree with making the lines all black. The stars are a cool touch though, and maybe they wouldn't have looked as good if the court still had red and white lines.

QUOTE (BrianAnderson @ Sep 9, 2015 -> 09:42 AM) If we are looking at his $10mm as too much then we have a whole other set of problems for this team going forward. Realistically, let's say we go with another option, say Freese or Uribe. We buy out Alexei for $1mm. Sign either of those guys for 2yr, $12-14mm contracts. Is having two years committed to either of those players AND at $7mm each + $1mm buyout (so $8mm next year) really worth it compared to keeping Alexei for a 1 year obligation at $10mm?? I also don't like this argument of "look at his first half stats he's declining" -- so he was so old that he was declining for the first 80 games, but the second half, after playing everyday all of a sudden he's fresh and playing well, but it should be discounted? Look at the season as a whole. Each of 162 games count just as much. Is he too much of a streaky player at times? Yes. But each game counts for the same. I don't think anybody here would be surprised if he finishes with a .265 BA. and very similar stats to his career. Just a tick below. If we are going with the his first half stats argument then we have to do the same for the whole Sox team. Eaton, Melky, etc. In terms of WAR or OPS, blah blah blah. His range is declining, his arm is still strong, he may make boneheaded plays at times ... but that is why 3rd base is perfect for him IMO. Again, the argument will be his WAR at SS compared to 3B, blah blah blah. Sorry, I don't play/armchair GM on an Excel spreadsheet. I am going by the eye test from what I see watching 140+ games a year and against what is realistically available in the FA market. I will take .270, a dozen homers, 65RBI, 35 doubles, and 25 SB, a good arm, and reliable health from my 3B for a 1 year, $10mm commitment over what is out there any day. That doesn't even mean anything. The argument is that he's not a good enough hitter to play third base. He is an okay hitter for a shortstop; he is a bad hitter for a third baseman. No spreadsheet necessary, it isn't that complicated.

QUOTE (Harry Chappas @ Sep 9, 2015 -> 09:57 AM) Could be worse. http://deadspin.com/matt-williams-f***s-up...ss-c-1729545542 The article doesn't even address that Harper was hitting after Rendon, and a successful bunt would have just taken the bat out of his hands.

QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Sep 9, 2015 -> 08:12 AM) I don't think some of you realize how little $10 million is in today's game. That is the going rate for roughly 1.5 fWAR. A below average player. Alexei will finish shy of that this year but I would say the odds are decent enough that he will return to at least that number next year that I would be willing to pick up the option especially since there are really no better options out there. Pick up the option and then in 2017 Anderson should be ready and we move on. I know that $10M isn't that much, but we differ on the bolded and that's why I'd buy out the option. Just because it's not enough money to sign a difference maker doesn't mean it we should spend it unwisely. It can be saved. It can be used to reinforce the bid on a bigger free agent.

QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Sep 8, 2015 -> 09:17 PM) DH- in a perfect world, I would try and trade LaRoche with cash over the winter. Turn the DH into a platoon spot for Micah Johnson and Avi Garcia. Micah can give Sanchez a breather from time to time and Avi can do the same for LF and RF. With Micah having defensive issues to go with his health, maybe it's time for the SOX to break the mold of DH and give Micah a shot a keeping those legs fresh and healthy. At this point, I would take Micah and Avi's production over LaRoche any time. I basically agree. I trumpeted the rotating DH model a little bit last offseason, thus the LaRoche signing was a little disappointing right from the start. So even though I think nagging injuries are partially to blame for his performance and he's a good bet for positive regression, I think trying to dump him is the right move. Think of the money we'd have to send along with him as buying a ticket to evaluate more guys.

QUOTE (OmarComing25 @ Sep 8, 2015 -> 10:01 PM) Good god man you could not be more condescending if you tried. What a shock that a White Sox fan enjoys watching White Sox games more than another team. So should we all just be in a constant state of misery like you? He's just being brutally honest.

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Sep 8, 2015 -> 12:44 PM) That is a load of s***. You pitch different with runners on. It shouldn't count the same. A solo HR hurts less than a 3 run homer. To count them equal is just absurd. Ask any pitcher in the world and they will tell you they don't pitch the same with no one on vs. with runners on. You are right. Pitchers in 2015 give up a HR every 36.6 plate appearances with the bases empty and every 39.5 with men on. They walk 6.8% of hitters with the bases empty, compared to 8.5% with runners aboard. Those numbers alone are basically proof of what you say. That said, ERA is terrible at predicting next year's ERA (source), and to attempt to do better, we've got FIP.

QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ Sep 8, 2015 -> 12:53 PM) Well in 2010, 2011, and 2015, 3 out of the 5 years, the Sox had a better record than Oakland so yeah I'd still say going 6-12 is pretty terrible. Read it again. I made that post before 2015's sweep by the Sox, so it's now 9-12, and I said that since 2011 the records have basically mirrored the teams' overall quality in a given year.

QUOTE (BrianAnderson @ Sep 8, 2015 -> 12:47 PM) Not saying it's ideal. But this team as currently constructed isn't ideal. So you play the hand dealt. There aren't really viable options out there in the FA market or in house. Sanchez has played more than a cup of coffee at SS. He basically split between SS and 2B from 2012-2014. I've never really understood the value of a player at one position vs. another. Alexei's value is the same at SS as it is at 3B when there are no other options at 3B -- the other options are Davidson in house, Saladino in house, and poor FA class that are similar to the 20 3B we've been through in the past decade. Just as a comparision here are 3 players: Player A: .225BA, 10HR, 23 2B, 52RBI, 6 SB, 108SO, 52BB --- 572 AB Player B: .245BA, 11HR, 20 2B, 45RBI, 1 SB, 84 SO, 26BB ----- 339AB Player C: .253BA, 9HR, 26 2B, 54 RBI, 17SB, 58 SO, 23 BB ----- 498 AB Player A are the Sox 3B combined this year, Player B is Freese, and Player C is Alexei (who I'm biased, but is having his worst year, but is still beating out the other options). I'll be honest, it was closer than I thought. But someone like Freese to me should not be the option ... he's just another guy on that long list. He's had 4 straight years of declining batting average, 4 straight years of declining OBP, 4 straight years of declining walks, 4 straight years of declining RBI .... I don't think you go out of house for that option. That's such an incomplete look at their offensive production. Look at the whole picture and there's really no comparison - Freese is having the better season. If you're worried his decline, I understand, but if Freese's decline is troubling, then what you've seen from Alexei this year is catastrophic. Regarding differing positions, your average MLB team can withstand a poor hitter at SS because the position has mostly poor hitters league-wide. It's not the same with 3B, a much stronger offensive position where having a weak hitter hurts you more because you're further below the competition.

QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ Sep 8, 2015 -> 12:29 PM) Of f***ing course we open with a 4 game set at Oakland. I did some quick research earlier this year and found that playing in Oakland isn't really the problem it used to be for the Sox. Throw in this year's sweep and I think my point is only enhanced. QUOTE (shysocks @ May 14, 2015 -> 09:15 AM) We're 6-12 there in the last five years but it feels like the luck has turned around and it's now just based on team quality since about 2011. I mean, that 2013 Sox teamshould have been swept. The one time the A's had a bad team - which they do so far in 2015 - the Sox won the series. I feel like they can do it this weekend too; the hex lives in KC or Baltimore now. YEAR W-L OAK Final Wins 2014 1-2 88 2013 0-3 96 2012 1-2 94 2011 2-1 74 2010 2-4 81

I'll start by saying that Alexei is one of the last guys who comes to mind when I think of "smart" baseball players, but that's a discussion for another day. To the topic at hand: A big reason Alexei was valuable in his best years is that he was a capable hitter at a position with few of them. Shift him to third base, and not only are you putting him in a spot on the field you aren't sure he can handle, you're also diminishing any offensive value he might provide for his position. This for the purpose of shifting another guy, Sanchez, to a position he may not be as suited for. This for the purpose of making room for Micah Johnson, which is a noble goal but one I'm not sure we need to move Alexei to third base to achieve. I guess I'm just uncomfortable with all these guys moving out of position. Sometimes it's that easy, but often it's not. Putting Sanchez at short to add Micah to the lineup - there's a chance that makes the Sox better, and it has the benefit of evaluating them both for a year. Adding Micah makes Alexei's speed less essential, though, and the resulting infield is basically powerless. If we're talking stopgap third basemen, assuming the salaries are similar, I'd rather have David Freese, who has proven to be a decent hitter and plays the position already.

Zach Lowe ranks the Bulls logo no. 1 in the NBA. They usually do well on his annual rankings of cosmetic areas of the NBA, but this is the first time they've grabbed the top spot. Well deserved; it's a fantastic logo. http://grantland.com/the-triangle/the-defi...d=story-twitter