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pablo

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Everything posted by pablo

  1. I was in the camp that Q should have been traded before the season started. That being said, the underlying numbers this year are not nearly as bad as the surface numbers. 1) FIP is a full run lower than his ERA 2) K Rate is easily the highest of his career 3) BB Rate is also easily the highest of his career by a wide margin which just smells a little fluky to me. 4) He's running a pretty high FlyBall% currently which is likely leading to his increase in HR/9, but his Hard % & Soft %'s are better than his previous two years. You would expect that to even out. 5) Looks like he's giving up some untimely hits (similar to yesterday) as his LOB% is rather low at 66%. League average usually sits in the 74-75%. All in all, Quintana looks a tad unlucky based on the above. I'm not an analytics guy, but those are some of the numbers I've been trained to look at from Fangraphs articles (when trying to find some buy-low/sell-high SPs for fantasy). I think the most encouraging thing is the K Rate is way up this year. Everyone thinks that Quintana is a pitch to contact guy, but an an 8.76% K/9 rate is very very good. The BB Rate is curious as he's throwing about as many pitches in the zone as he was last year and his first-pitch strike percentage is in line with last year. If he turns some of those Flyballs into outs rather than HR's, the numbers should correct themselves. Despite the above, he's going to need to get his ERA down to around 3.6-3.8ish territory or else it's going to be hard for teams to justify trading multiple top prospects for 4+ ERA, especially with other SPs available. Obviously the good thing is the Sox have time to trade Q given his contract so I'm not really worried about not getting a good package for him - they will at some point.
  2. QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ May 23, 2017 -> 08:44 AM) Keep him for the younger Latino players and possibly extend him in a year or 2 or if you're blown away with an offer, trade him and then attempt to re-sign him to DH when he is a free agent. I would agree with this - don't actively look to trade him, but if something comes around that is right then sure go ahead. Besides his clubhouse presence, Abreu has always struck me as someone who would age decently enough - at least as a DH. He reminds me of someone like Miggy or VMart. Yes he's slowing down, but he just knows how to hit.
  3. QUOTE (southsideirish71 @ May 1, 2017 -> 02:18 PM) Just about all of the good to great SS's in the majors make amazing plays on fly balls. Its a hallmark of being athletic. Not all have Anderson's 65 grade speed and thus wouldn't be able to play CF.
  4. QUOTE (Jerksticks @ May 1, 2017 -> 01:02 PM) His defense is so much better than I expected. His floor is already above average which is huge- ceiling is greatness. Defensively that is. Worrying about a young person making some mistakes and jumping to conclusions from it is in the manual of What Not To Do As An Adult Human. My original point was it is very special to watch Tim go after very difficult pop ups and short fly balls in no man's land and make some unbelievable catches. This made me think (a thought I have always had as well as some others around here) that I'm sure Anderson would be a great CF as well. My next point was how since the Sox are in a rebuild it would be smart to trade for the best prospects available no matter the position (pitcher or hitter). If Bregman, Rosario, Albies (name some other great SS prospect) are/were ever on the table, the Sox I assume would not turn something down just because they have Tim at SS. Knowing full well that Tim can be a great SS and assuming with time he can also be a great CF (evidenced by the way he goes back on fly balls), would anyone around here be upset if we were to acquire a great SS prospect and then also have a potential great CF in Tim? I am not advocating a move to CF for Tim whatsoever unless the situation presented itself.
  5. QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ May 1, 2017 -> 11:26 AM) By the advanced metrics TA has been already worth about 11 runs better than average, including .7 this year, as a MLB shortstop. TA is a SS. Full stop. "Positional Flexibility" is great, but so is an above average defense MLB SS. Not sure where you are getting that I don't believe Tim is a SS, but I guess you can spin it how you like. He's a very good SS who is already premium at the position. In case you missed it, Sox are in a rebuild and should be acquiring the best talent possible and if that means you duplicate a few positions and figure out where everyone plays later then that is what you do. Only point I am trying to make. Tim's athleticism is an asset to the organization in this regard. Trea Turner was a SS "Full Stop" until June last year, played about a week of games in CF, and then transformed a struggling Nats team and took them to the playoffs. I'm guessing you would have kept him in the minors all last year at SS though.
  6. Positional flexibility is so important in today's game it would be wrong not to bring up the conversation. The fact that Trea Turner can play both SS and CF competently opens up alot of options now for the Nats with the unfortunate Eaton injury. They can look for either a SS or CF to replace him. Definitely not a "move a stud middle infielder to CF" point I was trying to make. If the Sox had the option to trade for top SS prospect that is also a great defender (Bregman. Rosario, Albies off the top of my head) you do not pass that up just because we already have a good young SS.
  7. QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Apr 29, 2017 -> 07:43 PM) And that's why Robbie Cano jogs to first on occasion. I'm only half serious but Eaton is a 100% max effort guy and because of that he was always more of an injury risk than your average player. I feel badly for him but on the other hand it's not like you didn't see it coming, in one way or another. The injury isn't really related to Eaton going 100% max effort. He got hurt because he made the mistake (which he had always done with the Sox and gotten away with) of lunging for the bag on his last step. As a runner, you are taught to run through the base and not lunge for it because A) it slows you down and B) you can do what Eaton did and get hurt. Very very unfortunate - feel bad for Spanky. And the Nats.
  8. Tim has made some exceptional plays on pop-ups/short flyballs that he really should have no business getting to. This is why the Sox should not shy away from grabbing more middle infielders in any upcoming trades. Tim can always move to CF if a top tier SS is acquired. And I'm not saying Tim's future is in CF - I love watching him play SS and do the things he does, but it is always an option. He can be a plus defender at either spot most likely. Yesterday's game was rather awful from Tim but it actually might be a good thing - remind himself to get back to the basics and not get ahead of himself. It's often said that once a player makes some plays in the field, his bat heats up as well.
  9. QUOTE (OmarComing25 @ Apr 25, 2017 -> 12:11 AM) In the last 10 games Anderson's strikeout rate is under 16%, nice to see. Agreed - he has not been K'ing much. Very good sign especially after the first week of the season. But I don't recall a ton of hard hit balls so far which is evident in his .259 BABIP.I can only think of a few off the top of my head - a couple against Tanaka last week and then one on Salazar on Sunday. But I'd like to see him use the middle of the field a bit more, been pulling his balls lately.
  10. QUOTE (GreenSox @ Mar 3, 2017 -> 07:51 AM) The Yankees should make a move now, and get a head start on the now flawed RedSox by taking the only #1 level pitcher on the market right now. I think they have a pretty good team as it is. They have quality in the low minors which should appeal to the Sox on currrent timeline. This is actually a really good point - other teams might see the loss of Price as a time to further strengthen themselves when the opponent is weak. Maybe not right away, but if the Yankees are in the lead in the AL East in June, it might be easier for them to justify trading some prospects for Quintana and/or Frazier. As we all have mentioned before, trading for Q is a win-now move but also a build for the future move.
  11. QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Mar 2, 2017 -> 08:56 AM) You can't sign these players to major league deals anymore. It is a minor league deal with a signing bonus that counts towards your international signing pool. Ahhhh thank you gentlemen - much appreciated.
  12. Maybe a dumb question - but what if the Sox sign Robert to a 6 year deal and he spends the first two years in the minors? Would he only have 4 years left on his deal when he is brought up to the bigs? Similar question has come up with friends when discussing Moncada's contract. I know for Abreu he was signed for the 6/68 but he didn't spend any time in the minors so this didn't impact him.
  13. QUOTE (fathom @ Feb 14, 2017 -> 12:14 PM) Don't see Cards as a match at all. Outside of Reyes, they have no top 50 guys. Also can't see them unloading farm after losing their picks Different thought than what has been thrown around on this thread. Wouldn't be surprised to to see the Reyes injury improve the chances of the Cards wanting to add a bat to help out the lineup now. Accomplishes a couple of things - 1) They are going to need to score some runs this year with the staff as currently constructed. They were going to have to do so even if Reyes was healthy, but this might push them to do something sooner. 2) Losing Reyes is an awful way to start camp for Cards fans and for the team. He was going to be a big bright spot for them. If they make a deal before ST ends they can get back some good vibes going into the season. On that note - Frazier for Flaherty and Plummer.
  14. QUOTE (bmags @ Feb 14, 2017 -> 12:51 PM) If I were Cards I'd probably pull back rather than go for it. Maybe start dialogue around a Miguel Gonzalez or something. Agreed, makes more sense to re-evaluate at this point. Plus they have Wacha who was going to battle Reyes for this 5th spot in ST. They have 6 guys off the top of my head currently. Sign a cheap FA (not sure who is left) and see what you have in a couple of months. Martinez Waino Leake Lynn Wacha Weaver
  15. This is a complete side note but have found it funny ever since the winter meetings. What is up with RH always saying "if we had our druthers..."? It's got to be the fourth or fifth time I have heard him use it since the Eaton deal. Can he come up with something new? It's getting to the point where it's a tad bit annoying for me.
  16. I find it interesting that Rogers mentions the Dodgers and Bellinger. We haven't heard any rumors regarding the Dodgers and Q as they seem intent on keeping their prospects and refraining from the big deals (Dozier). The fact he mentions the Dodgers suggests the teams are at least talking, right? Unless he's just pulling it out of his a**. If the Dodgers are legitimately interested, I'd be all for waiting until the deadline to see if their pitching staff has fallen apart by then like I suspect. At that point, they might be willing to include Bellinger.
  17. I swear Nightengale must get a commission if Q gets traded. He's the only one playing up any news about it.
  18. QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Feb 7, 2017 -> 02:57 PM) I just like the idea of Glover being in the return for Robertson. No doubt it would take more than Glover even though I do have low expectations on Robertson's value at this point. Here's two interesting scenarios for the board. 1) Keep Robertson to hopefully build more value and trade at the deadline. Then make Jones the closer for the rest of '17 and hope he has some success and potentially traded as a closer next winter. Or 2) trade Robertson now for the best package possible. Make Jones the closer and hope he succeeds and potentially gets traded for a haul in July. Scenario #1 gives the best chance for maximum value if Robertson has a good first half and Jones becomes a solid closer in the second half. Those ifs do come with more risk and wait a bit longer for the rewards. Scenario #2 would mean taking potentially less now for Robertson but Jones' value could go up with some success as a closer in the first half and be traded for a haul in July when teams are more desperate. If the Nat's offered a nice package for Robertson I'd go ahead and take it, then move on. If Jones has success as a closer in the first half his value would jump alot. He would no longer be sold as a setup arm and instead as a Closer. Combine that with his contract and he makes for a very cheap and appealing closer at the deadline. I'd much rather roll with scenario 2. Robertson is not going to get anything more than a back end top #100 prospect if he recoups all his value. Just look at the Melancon trade from last year. If Jones proves himself as a closer, he could be worth two top 100 prospects.
  19. QUOTE (steveno89 @ Feb 7, 2017 -> 12:33 PM) No team likes dealing prospects, but that is the price of doing business Sox aren't going to give Robertson away unless they get decent value in return Proven mlb players will always have a prospect cost associated, unless it is a pure salary dump. Totally agree. The fit seems really logical but it's actually a hard deal to complete given the money, Nat's org depth, Eaton trade... I'd be upset with anything less than Soto/Kieboom for Robertson if he had a lot of value and was crucial to the rebuild. But he's just not a top closer like Chapman or Miller so maybe it's best to accept a deal from the Nats that works for both teams. It allows Jones to get some saves and increase his already high trade value who actually is really important to the rebuild. Glover is top notch bullpen arm and would be a nice get for Sox. Throws 98, nasty slider.
  20. QUOTE (ChiSoxFanMike @ Feb 7, 2017 -> 12:22 PM) If Washington really wanted to win in the window in which they have Harper, they'd do something. It doesn't seem like that's the case though which is extremely puzzling. I think it fits the mold we have seen for a while now in that teams do not like mortgaging their future prospects unless it's for someone like Chris Sale. Dodgers, Yankees, Cubs, Astros etc. all want to build from within and add FA's if necessary. I don't think teams are all that worried about spending money, but prospects are another thing.
  21. QUOTE (beautox @ Feb 7, 2017 -> 11:40 AM) their future is the next two years before Harper hits free agency while hoping Zimmerman stops his decline at first. that package is 1 50 and 3 45 FV prospects and their isn't a floor between any of them, its the definition of boom or bust. If they're not keen on moving Feede and Severino they're going to have to compensate with more lottery tickets and I think its easier to sell to both the ownership and fan base that they're moving assets that won't factor into the next two years of competition in the east. I think you make very good points and I was surprised to see the Melancon/Robertson comparison favor Robertson slightly. But when you see the package Melancon brought which is essentially two high upside bullpen pieces, I have a hard time thinking that Robertson can bring back Soto or Kieboom, even with eating some money. They are a bit different situations in that Melancon was a pending FA, but he was also acquired in a pennant race when trades for relievers seem to go up. Yes the Sox can eat some Robertson money, but perception is that Robertson had a bad year last year which basically means the Sox "should" eat money to trade him. I view them as somewhat equal trade values which means we probably should not get our hopes up of getting Soto back (unfortunately). If we went with the Melancon deal as what we can expect, I would be up for a Glover + Luzardo package. EDIT: I think if the Nats were desperate enough, they would trade Soto considering he doesn't fit into their current contention plans. But Rizzo might be afraid to trade him considering the backlash he got on the Eaton deal.
  22. QUOTE (steveno89 @ Feb 6, 2017 -> 11:25 AM) Robles? Probably not. But Fedde certainly can be on the table, he's far from untouchable I think given the current value of Robertson, he's not worth a top 50 prospect unless there is significant salary offset. I'd be fine with picking up a bunch of Robertson's salary to get Feede include in a deal. On a related note, it will be very funny if Q gets traded to Astros and Robertson to Nats as they were the most obvious trade partners and we've been speculating about it for 2+ months.
  23. There's really no reason to do a deal that doesn't a least include Soto. If not, let Robertson re-establish value during the season. I can't imagine a scenario where Robles or Feede are on the table.
  24. QUOTE (reiks12 @ Feb 3, 2017 -> 10:01 AM) Rizzo wasn't so good when he was promoted either. I would be happy with Reed as a 3rd piece Yes but scouts were very split on Reed to begin with before he came up and critics point to last year as an "I told you so". Some thought he was a first division 1B and others thought nothing of him (which I realize can be said about any prospect). I am suprised by the 21-22% K numbers in the MiLB that another poster brought up so last year's 34% K-rate is likely to decline. I would hope Hahn could take advantage of his stock falling and get him as a 4th piece. The similarities to Rizzo are obvious but probably overstated. I can't remember what scouts said about him when he was coming up.
  25. QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 3, 2017 -> 09:12 AM) I really think the start of an Astros trade needs to be Martes, Reed, and Tucker if Bregman is off of the table. Then fill in from there. Reed is quite possibly nothing more than a 4th piece to an Q deal. I'd view him in the same way as Joey Gallo, which is basically a lottery ticket. Tucker, Perez, Fisher, Laureano/Stubbs/Reed is the deal I would take.
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