Corbin isn't my favorite target for a few reasons, injury history, performance history, outlying walk year.  Though with that said, he is the best option on the free agent market, I am warming up to the idea, especially if it doesn't impede other pursuits.

9 hours ago, turnin' two said:

Corbin isn't my favorite target for a few reasons, injury history, performance history, outlying walk year.  Though with that said, he is the best option on the free agent market, I am warming up to the idea, especially if it doesn't impede other pursuits.

I think this is pretty rough logic.

The White Sox have a $50 million ish payroll counting Abreu. They have room for 3 big signings, or maybe 2 big signings and some smaller Cruz/Brantley types. Historically they've hit a payroll ceiling around $120 or $130 million, and even with shared revenue growth, they're probably not going blow way past that by the amount of another huge contract that until they can win enough to actually sell some tickets. By definition, "one of your 3 big contracts" impedes other pursuits because now you are down to 1 or 2 other big contracts total, and by the time those early deals are ending their deals, any of the young guys we brought up will be hitting arbitration years.

So, ask yourself, if it's all you get, does Corbin + Machado + a handful of other guys make this team a contender next year? If not, you don't get a do-over in 2020, you're in the place the White Sox were in 2016 - not having a lot of money to spend because of what they did the year before. If you think that does....well, go for it.

This is clearly a signing to entice Machado, who will entice Harper.

JR hands out $700M in one off-season. Go for it.

2 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

I think this is pretty rough logic.

The White Sox have a $50 million ish payroll counting Abreu. They have room for 3 big signings, or maybe 2 big signings and some smaller Cruz/Brantley types. Historically they've hit a payroll ceiling around $120 or $130 million, and even with shared revenue growth, they're probably not going blow way past that by the amount of another huge contract that until they can win enough to actually sell some tickets. By definition, "one of your 3 big contracts" impedes other pursuits because now you are down to 1 or 2 other big contracts total, and by the time those early deals are ending their deals, any of the young guys we brought up will be hitting arbitration years.

So, ask yourself, if it's all you get, does Corbin + Machado + a handful of other guys make this team a contender next year? If not, you don't get a do-over in 2020, you're in the place the White Sox were in 2016 - not having a lot of money to spend because of what they did the year before. If you think that does....well, go for it.

I don't think you got my point, maybe I didn't make it well.  I don't know why you are quoting "one of your big 3 contracts", I never said or implied that in anyway.  Though your meaning is certainly true.  Projecting the payroll to top out around 130-140 seems reasonable to me.  One 35-ish and 2 25-ish deals. I really meant that I would be ok with pursuing Corbin as long as that doesn't preclude Harper/Machado.  I should have been clearer about that position.  

I still don't love Corbin.  But this team needs at least 1 good starter at this point.  He is the best of the bunch this year, even if there are some concerns (the guys like Keuchel, Eovaldi and Happ all have concerns, and will likely cost a similar amount - they'll all command at least 15/ season I'd have to guess).  If the FO thinks there is more to his year this season that a walk year bump, well, his results are hard to argue with, it seems like his slider became much more of a swing and miss pitch.  That development may be sustainable.  His last 2 seasons are nearly 400 innings of 3.58 ERA, a 4/1 K/BB and more than a K/IP.

Looking to next year, there are some guys that are attractive, though with their own concerns.  Bumgarner (injuries, declining stuff), Sale( fading down the stretch and some injury concerns this year) Cole (last season was an anomaly for him as well) and Porcello (meh).  No doubt at least Sale and Bum are in a different class of pitcher than Corbin.  But, I have to believe there is a at least a decent chance Sale stays in Boston and Bum stays in SF.  Is hoping for one of those guys worth passing on Corbin, well, I'm not sure.  All I was saying is that I am starting to warm up to the idea.  

There is the trade market as well.  Depending on cost, as I advocated for earlier, I would prefer Greinke.  If you could get him cheap prospect wise (Steele Walker and Spencer Adams?) and get the Dbacks to pick up about 45 million or so on his contract.  Yeah he is a bit older, but he puts up quality lines every season.  Paxton would be great, but there are some major durability concerns there, and prospect cost.  Kluber, sure.  But he will cost you in prospects, at this point, I'd rather spend in cash currency than prospect currency.

Maybe with those considerations, Corbin may be the best alternative.  He wouldn't be my first target, but I am starting to understand the pursuit.

And they certainly wouldn't be in the position they were in in 2016.  Because they would have Kopech coming back in 20, Cease and Dunning seem imminent for 2020 (not to mention some more wild card guys like Hansen, Mederios, Lambert, Flores etc who could be ready to go beyond AAA by 2020), and a boatload of offensive prospects with which to bolster the lineup or trade for what you need.  Those situations are not analogous at all.

Edited November 9, 20187 yr by turnin' two

Patrick Corbin....No Thanks.

 

That would 100% NOT be the way to start off the Free Agent Spending.

2 hours ago, Quinarvy said:

This is clearly a signing to entice Machado, who will entice Harper.

JR hands out $700M in one off-season. Go for it.

Being completely honest, lets say we sign Harper + Machado + Corbin for $700+ million...do we even make the playoffs in 2019? I still doubt it given the rest of the roster

That would add $100 million in payroll for at least the next 5 years as well, killing any flexibility down the line

2 hours ago, turnin' two said:

And they certainly wouldn't be in the position they were in in 2016.  Because they would have Kopech coming back in 20, Cease and Dunning seem imminent for 2020 (not to mention some more wild card guys like Hansen, Mederios, Lambert, Flores etc who could be ready to go beyond AAA by 2020), and a boatload of offensive prospects with which to bolster the lineup or trade for what you need.  Those situations are not analogous at all.

Well Dunning, I wouldn't count on until I know his arm isn't going to tear itself apart. I agree with you on all the other guys though, Cease and Kopech are in my ideal 2020 rotation. But, with that said - I don't have any need for Corbin if I am counting on Cease and Kopech hitting my rotation in 2020 and thinking about Dunning and the other guys you list, unless I'm totally throwing in the towel on Giolito already. Corbin is either: we are going to be ready in 2019 or we don't have confidence in any of the people you list filling roles for 2020. 

I don't think any of those are true personally, but then again I wouldn't be bidding on any of these guys, or at least I'd be putting in very low bids. 

37 minutes ago, steveno89 said:

Being completely honest, lets say we sign Harper + Machado + Corbin for $700+ million...do we even make the playoffs in 2019? I still doubt it given the rest of the roster

That would add $100 million in payroll for at least the next 5 years as well, killing any flexibility down the line

I would agree with you, but to me that  leads to the logic that Corbin makes little sense for this team and actually signing him would be a bad move. However, a thread on us offering him a contract is not us actually signing him to that contract, and if all RH is doing is putting in low bids on everyone out there so that every agent knows they're in the game or so that the Yankees actually have to pay full price for Corbin and that makes it harder for them to sign Machado...I certainly can't be mad about that. I'll get more annoyed if we actually sign one of the guys who are poor fits for us, but we'll see how that shakes out.

18 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I would agree with you, but to me that  leads to the logic that Corbin makes little sense for this team and actually signing him would be a bad move. However, a thread on us offering him a contract is not us actually signing him to that contract, and if all RH is doing is putting in low bids on everyone out there so that every agent knows they're in the game or so that the Yankees actually have to pay full price for Corbin and that makes it harder for them to sign Machado...I certainly can't be mad about that. I'll get more annoyed if we actually sign one of the guys who are poor fits for us, but we'll see how that shakes out.

Lets be honest, you'll be annoyed no matter what the Sox do.  

17 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Lets be honest, you'll be annoyed no matter what the Sox do.  

We've been the worst team in baseball since 2013 and it isn't even close. That should annoy every White Sox fan.