1 hour ago, BlackSox13 said:

I just dont see it with Madrigal. I have no doubt he will add some power but not enough to overtake Yoan. I mean no disrepect to Madrigal but there's no comparing him to Moncada. Ill take Yoan with his power speed and eye over Madrigal's hit tool anytime. 

When I think of Madrigal's potential it makes me happy. When I think of Yoan's potential I sport a Louisville slugger in my jeans.

This x infinity. Nice post that sums it up nicely. Madrigal is just an MLB regular unless he turns into the 2B version of Ichiro Suzuki. Moncada's ceiling is Jose Ramirez. He probably won't get even to Ramirez, but if he does.......He'll be 2nd in MVP to Trout every year. I think Jose Ramirez is the ceiling for him. 

Edited February 1, 20197 yr by Jack Parkman

38 minutes ago, Sox72 said:

Jesus. Stop posting. Or....keep posting but get off this. Because you have run yourself in circles and are losing any sort of future credibility based on not wanting to lose this argument that you’ve lost. 

This is wholly dramatic and actually a bit crazy. You do know each year does not feature the exact same stastical leaderboard as the year prior right? Things change all the time. And on a per game basis Harper hits a ton more HR than Machado over the course of their careers. It's really not a stretch at all when you look at the bigger picture to EXPECT Harper to put decidedly better power numbers.

Machado has an edge in being a better defender at a higher value defensive position. I think that matters less to the Sox right now than finding someone who can just create wanton amounts of left-handed offensive destruction.

1 hour ago, oldsox said:

Why were umps pissed at Moncada?

Because he stares at a lot of pitches and that "approach" rubs a lot of people the wrong way.

You never know how power shakes out.  Alex Bregman had 21 homers in 3 years in college...he hit 31 for the Astros last year.
Give Madrgial a chance.  The last thing they need to do is trade him for some short term player.

Just now, GreenSox said:

You never know how power shakes out.  Alex Bregman had 21 homers in 3 years in college...he hit 31 for the Astros last year.
Give Madrgial a chance.  The last thing they need to do is trade him for some short term player.

People are very comfortable saying power is the last tool to develop but man, when it comes to actually experiencing it run its course they lose their minds.

I would be willing to bet Madrigal is going to develop to be a 20 HR / year player. Guys who receive major league "nutrition" and put the bat on the ball eventually start generating enough bat speed to put up serious numbers. Look at Adam Eaton and Jose Altuve.

You can't go wrong with either, but I think Harper has a MUCH higher offensive ceiling than Machado. Machado is going to put up probably 4-6 WAR per season. Harper will probably put up 4-6 WAR most seasons, but he could have a few in the 7-10 range as well. Machado will probably top at 6.5. Most of Harper's WAR is due to offense, while a big chunk of Machado's WAR is due to defense. Harper is an on base machine, something that Machado isn't. Even in his bad years(2016 and 2018) Harper still was a Greek God of walks. 

OPS is the stat that has the highest correlation with run scoring

In 2016 Harper had an .814 OPS

in 2018 Harper had an .889 OPS. 

His career OPS is .900

In both 2016 and 2018, Harper had bad luck on batted balls(BABIP<.300) 

Harper has a career .388 OBP

Machado has had one year with an OPS >.900(2018)

He has had 3 full seasons with an OPS below .800

Machado has a career .335 OBP

in his down year(2017) Machado had poor luck with batted balls (.265 BABIP) 

It is obvious who the superior offensive player is. 

 

I'd be happy with either, but I prefer Harper, even if he costs more, because he is a much better offensive player and the flexibility it brings the Sox in terms of trading prospects. Harper is someone who can hold his value as a 1B/DH. Machado isn't. 

Mr. Boras, Can I have a few thousand dollars for making this pitch and doing this research for you? 

Edited February 1, 20197 yr by Jack Parkman

14 minutes ago, GreenSox said:

You never know how power shakes out.  Alex Bregman had 21 homers in 3 years in college...he hit 31 for the Astros last year.
Give Madrgial a chance.  The last thing they need to do is trade him for some short term player.

No one is suggesting they trade him for a short term player...

19 minutes ago, KiwiSox said:

This is wholly dramatic and actually a bit crazy. You do know each year does not feature the exact same stastical leaderboard as the year prior right? Things change all the time. And on a per game basis Harper hits a ton more HR than Machado over the course of their careers. It's really not a stretch at all when you look at the bigger picture to EXPECT Harper to put decidedly better power numbers.

Machado has an edge in being a better defender at a higher value defensive position. I think that matters less to the Sox right now than finding someone who can just create wanton amounts of left-handed offensive destruction.

Hmmm. So are we basing future predictions on past performance or not? Because it seems to change in every other post. 

Just now, Sox72 said:

Hmmm. So are we basing future predictions on past performance or not? Because it seems to change in every other post. 

Well obviously past production comes into it a little bit but it's definitely not what the Sox are paying for. This is all a bit nuanced.

Your hostility here absolutely baffles me. You alright mate?

1 minute ago, KiwiSox said:

Well obviously past production comes into it a little bit but it's definitely not what the Sox are paying for. This is all a bit nuanced.

Your hostility here absolutely baffles me. You alright mate?

I guess your consistently evolving “nuance” just evades me. 

Harper is simply not worth what he is asking for in my opinion.  He is too inconsistent, shitty defender, and gets hurt too much for my liking.

Give me the gold glove infielder that rakes every year please.  

2 minutes ago, Sox72 said:

I guess your consistently evolving “nuance” just evades me. 

Do you think Machado is a better offensive player than Harper? There is not a whole let of evidence out there that supports that.

And going forward who do you think will be a better offensive player? It's easy to take your position here and just be really hostile and rude without taking a position yourself. If you are going to act this way at least take a stand.

1 hour ago, BackDoorBreach said:

Harper is simply not worth what he is asking for in my opinion.  He is too inconsistent, shitty defender, and gets hurt too much for my liking.

Give me the gold glove infielder that rakes every year please.  

Even when he's inconsistent, he's still a better hitter than Machado. His offensive ceiling is much higher. If Machado loses any of his defensive value, he becomes MUCH worse immediately. I don't trust defensive metrics nearly as much as offensive metrics. In reality, it is possible that Machado isn't even on the same planet as Harper as a baseball player. 

20 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Even when he's inconsistent, he's still a better hitter than Machado. His offensive ceiling is much higher. If Machado loses any of his defensive value, he becomes MUCH worse immediately. I don't trust defensive metrics nearly as much as offensive metrics. In reality, it is possible that Machado isn't even on the same planet as Harper as a baseball player. 

I don't know if I'm to same extent as described here but this is generally how I feel. Machado would obviously be welcome, but I just don't think he'd have the same transformative effect as Harper. I have no first-hand source or "guy" telling me anything about what the White Sox intentions are, but I think the Sox feel the same way.

I also think Harper is going to get a substantially larger amount of money than Machado. Not quite double, but I think many will be surprised.

 

6 minutes ago, KiwiSox said:

I don't know if I'm to same extent as described here but this is generally how I feel. Machado would obviously be welcome, but I just don't think he'd have the same transformative effect as Harper. I have no first-hand source or "guy" telling me anything about what the White Sox intentions are, but I think the Sox feel the same way.

I also think Harper is going to get a substantially larger amount of money than Machado. Not quite double, but I think many will be surprised.

 

Hey Kiwi, 2 questions for you as a New Zealander: 

1. How do you pronounce Aukland properly? is it Oakland(like the city in California) or AWKland (like the bird the auk) 

2. I've always wanted to visit down under because I'm an avid amateur astronomer. Where are the darkest parts of NZ? You get to see stuff that you don't up here, and you get better views of southerly objects(objects near the horizon and obscured by atmosphere up here, are near the zenith down under) 

Australia weirds me out because there are so many bugs and other critters that can kill you there. Is NZ any better? 

Edited February 1, 20197 yr by Jack Parkman

 

 

2 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

Hey Kiwi, 2 questions for you as a New Zealander: 

1. How do you pronounce Aukland properly? is it Oakland(like the city in California) or AWKland (like the bird the auk) 

2. I've always wanted to visit down under because I'm an avid amateur astronomer. Where are the darkest parts of NZ? You get to see stuff that you don't up here, and you get better views of southerly objects(objects near the horizon and obscured by atmosphere up here, are near the zenith down under) 

Australia weirds me out because there are so many bugs and other critters that can kill you there. Is NZ any better? 

1. It's Auckland, as in awkward. Say it in a mock British accent and go under instead of over the 'u'. People generally agree that Auckland is kinda lame too. Wellington is much more charming.

2. Raikoura/Stewart Island and Bluff would probably be best if you're trying to see the Southern Lights and from astronomy in general. I was on the Caples, Greenstone and Routeburn tracks last week and had some incredible night skies though. Didn't put the fly on the tent one night (living dangerously!) and the stars were really great. So still a bit further north than Bluff and Invercargill, closer to Queenstown, but still incredible.

I'm a also a born and raised Chicago expat living in NZ. Not a true NZer, though as a country they do tend to reject the concept of "true NZer". You should come. There are new non-stops from Chicago on Air NZ.

Awesome post kiwi! Ive talked to a lot of aussies on line and even drank beer with a few bands from Oz. Also spoke with a few from NZ ( one being a cousin originally from Ireland) and two things I can say is they are 1) mostly happy people with good hearts and 2) sarcastic as all hell. I mean seeiously sarcastic. Its hilarious. But you already know this.

Alright Manny. Its 3am and I have a cold Modelo in my hand but you havent signed yet. What gives dude?!?!

7 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

You can't go wrong with either, but I think Harper has a MUCH higher offensive ceiling than Machado. Machado is going to put up probably 4-6 WAR per season. Harper will probably put up 4-6 WAR most seasons, but he could have a few in the 7-10 range as well. Machado will probably top at 6.5. Most of Harper's WAR is due to offense, while a big chunk of Machado's WAR is due to defense. Harper is an on base machine, something that Machado isn't. Even in his bad years(2016 and 2018) Harper still was a Greek God of walks. 

OPS is the stat that has the highest correlation with run scoring

In 2016 Harper had an .814 OPS

in 2016 Machado had an .876 OPS

in 2018 Harper had an .889 OPS. 

In 2018 Machado had a .905 OPS

His career OPS is .900

In both 2016 and 2018, Harper had bad luck on batted balls(BABIP<.300) 

Harper has a career .388 OBP

Machado has had one year with an OPS >.900(2018)

He has had 3 full seasons with an OPS below .800

Machado has a career .335 OBP

in his down year(2017) Machado had poor luck with batted balls (.265 BABIP) 

It is obvious who the superior offensive player is. 

 

I'd be happy with either, but I prefer Harper, even if he costs more, because he is a much better offensive player and the flexibility it brings the Sox in terms of trading prospects. Harper is someone who can hold his value as a 1B/DH. Machado isn't. 

Mr. Boras, Can I have a few thousand dollars for making this pitch and doing this research for you? 

It's strange that you would list the above two seasons of harpers OPS as if they are superior seasons without showing Machado OPS

You also aren't really showing how much Harper wildly swings back at forth in his OPS from year to year, from .768 in 2014 to 1.109 in 2015 and then dropping back to .814 again.  

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/25897858/bryce-harper-meets-san-diego-padres-sources-say

1 hour ago, Kyyle23 said:

It's strange that you would list the above two seasons of harpers OPS as if they are superior seasons without showing Machado OPS

You also aren't really showing how much Harper wildly swings back at forth in his OPS from year to year, from .768 in 2014 to 1.109 in 2015 and then dropping back to .814 again.  

I would take either one. Each has issues, and each has their extra appeal. Machado plays the infield, is GG at 3B...probably more consistent so far. Harper has had some swings, defense may be a problem and plays the OF so that's a little easier to fill. He also is repped by Boras which isn't great other than you know Boras keeps his clients in shape. So 5 or 6 years from now, Harper isn't going to get out of shape. Machado, you never know. Harper sells you more tickets and gets you more notice nationally.

 

I read a scout's take on it. He said if you signed them each for 10 years, you would get 8 All Star seasons and 1 MVP out of Machado, and with Harper's swings, 6 All Star seasons but 3 MVPs.

If he is at all near accurate, you can't go wrong with either. The fact that they are 26 makes them unique. They may have not reached peak performance yet. 

Edited February 1, 20197 yr by Dick Allen

5 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

I would take either one. Each has issues, and each has their extra appeal. Machado plays the infield, is GG at 3B...probably more consistent so far. Harper has had some swings, defense may be a problem and plays the OF so that's a little easier to fill. He also is repped by Boras which isn't great other than you know Boras keeps his clients in shape. So 5 or 6 years from now, Harper isn't going to get out of shape. Machado, you never know. Harper sells you more tickets and gets you more notice nationally.

 

I read a scout's take on it. He said if you signed them each for 10 years, you would get 8 All Star seasons and 1 MVP out of Machado, and with Harper's swings, 6 All Star seasons but 3 MVPs.

If he is at all near accurate, you can't go wrong with either. The fact that they are 26 makes them unique. They may have not reached peak performance yet. 

I definitely would take both and I don't see either as clearly better than the other 

2 hours ago, Kyyle23 said:

It's strange that you would list the above two seasons of harpers OPS as if they are superior seasons without showing Machado OPS

You also aren't really showing how much Harper wildly swings back at forth in his OPS from year to year, from .768 in 2014 to 1.109 in 2015 and then dropping back to .814 again.  

Machado's 3 best years: 

.861-2015

.876-2016

.905-2018

Those are the only 3 seasons that Machado has put up an OPS over .800 in his career 

Harper's best 3 seasons: 

2015-1.109

2017-1.008

2018-.889

Harper has only had one season in his career with an OPS less than .800(2014) 

Machado has had 4 seasons with an OPS less than .800. 

Harper might be inconsistent, but he's inconsistent in a good way. Even at his worst ge'd still a really good player, and he has the potential to explode and put up MVP numbers any given season. 

IMO, there is more risk with Machado. Not to say there isn't risk with Harper, but Machado could go from very good to average overnight. I think the only major risk with Harper is losing his ability to play a position. Even so, his numbers translate well to 1B/DH. 

Edited February 1, 20197 yr by Jack Parkman

2 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Machado's 3 best years: 

.861-2015

.876-2016

.905-2018

Those are the only 3 seasons that Machado has put up an OPS over .800 in his career 

Harper's best 3 seasons: 

2015-1.109

2017-1.008

2018-.889

Harper has only had one season in his career with an OPS less than .800(2014) 

Machado has had 4 seasons with an OPS less than .800. 

Harper might be inconsistent, but he's inconsistent in a good way. Even at his worst ge'd still a really good player, and he has the potential to explode and put up MVP numbers any given season. 

Harper has two seasons right at .800(.814 and .817) so let's not act like his numbers are head and shoulders better than Manny.   

Machado has gotten better over the last three years, Harpers OPS has declined over the last three

Just now, joesaiditstrue said:

Machado has gotten better over the last three years, Harpers OPS has declined over the last three

I have seen one article/story arguing that a decent amount of Harper's number drop can be attributed to the shift.