turnin' two Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 (edited) 1 hour ago, Eminor3rd said: Hahn said they weren’t going to get both, and there’s no reason not to believe him. It’s pretty much zero. Aren't there plenty of reasons not to believe him? Not that they will sign both, but I wouldn't take what a GM says at a fan conference as gospel. Edited January 31, 2019 by turnin' two Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smellysox Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 59 minutes ago, Orlando said: I know Hahn said they weren’t getting both but I do recall him mentioning “OFFERS” on big free agents. I wonder if he meant multiple to Machado or if they have an offer for both and they will pull the other once one is accepted. I have always felt during this process, that the Sox probably have an offer on the table to each of them. Who ever commits first - the other offer is pulled. I mean, I would love both but it's just not gonna happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jose Abreu Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 22 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said: There’s no evidence to suggest the White Sox suddenly want to have payrolls in the top five in the league every year, which would be pretty much required if they’re going to roster two $30-35mm per year players for the next decade and still actually try to put a decent team on the field around them. I imagine it would be more like the next 3-5 years, due to the opt-outs. In that 3-5 year window, the payroll wouldn't have to be in the top five of the league since so much of our early 2020s roster are currently minor leaguers 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 4 minutes ago, turnin' two said: Aren't there plenty of reasons not to believe him? Not that they will sign both, but I wouldn't take what a GM says at a fan conference as gospel. There are about 60 to 70 million reasons per year to believe him. It has never worked well for mid to small market payroll teams to tie up so much of their payroll into a couple of players. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shipps Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 25 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said: It’s possible, but I can’t think of an objective reason for them to actually sign both players. There’s no evidence to suggest the White Sox suddenly want to have payrolls in the top five in the league every year, which would be pretty much required if they’re going to roster two $30-35mm per year players for the next decade and still actually try to put a decent team on the field around them. So yeah, you COULD be right, but it would go against everything the team has ever done, and against everything the team has said, and runs counter to the long-term goal of sustained contention that has been implied both by the team’s actions and the team’s official remarks. Much of the talent surrounding them will be under control for the next 5-6 years though. Costs shouldn't be too high for those players. That makes it somewhat feasible to have two of those guys, especially considering past four years from now when that becomes far more normal to have anyways. I dont know, I am not saying its likely, it probably isnt feasible but I dont think its as crazy as you guys are suggesting. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 5 minutes ago, shipps said: Much of the talent surrounding them will be under control for the next 5-6 years though. Costs shouldn't be too high for those players. That makes it somewhat feasible to have two of those guys, especially considering past four years from now when that becomes far more normal to have anyways. I dont know, I am not saying its likely, it probably isnt feasible but I dont think its as crazy as you guys are suggesting. Arb can still be pretty expensive. Betts got 20 million, Arenado will likely be between 20 and 23. Hell, Colome in arb 2 gets 7 million. So starting 2022 you could be talking huge, huge payrolls. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 4 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said: I imagine it would be more like the next 3-5 years, due to the opt-outs. In that 3-5 year window, the payroll wouldn't have to be in the top five of the league since so much of our early 2020s roster are currently minor leaguers Yup, I truly believe we could afford both of them in the short-term and build a highly competitive roster with a payroll around $160M. That’s much closer to middle of the pack than top 5 in terms of payroll. And within three or four years, one or both guys will likely opt-out creating much needed flexibility as our young guys start getting expensive. The problem with this plan (which is where I think Hahn is coming from) is in the unlikely event both guys underperform and you’re suddenly plagued with two albatross contracts for the remainder of a decade. The risk of that happening may be small IMO, but it would be so catostrophic to the well being of the franchise if it did that I can understand Hahn’s reluctance. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shipps Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 2 minutes ago, bmags said: Arb can still be pretty expensive. Betts got 20 million, Arenado will likely be between 20 and 23. Hell, Colome in arb 2 gets 7 million. So starting 2022 you could be talking huge, huge payrolls. It could but the spending curve is going to move to the right as time goes on. What appears to be a huge salary now may become a little more normal when we cross that road (especially after these guys strike). Plus I would assume that there will be mutual options around 4 years with these guys anyways. If at that time you just cant afford both then you can make a decision then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 2 minutes ago, bmags said: Arb can still be pretty expensive. Betts got 20 million, Arenado will likely be between 20 and 23. Hell, Colome in arb 2 gets 7 million. So starting 2022 you could be talking huge, huge payrolls. But of course...that also would mean that these guys are performing. I will not be mad one iota if Moncada in 2021 gets $10 million in arbitration, because that probably means he's jumped up to be an all star, and having a couple of guys who "Get expensive in arbitration because they're doing really well" alongside Machado and Harper...there's your 95 win playoff team. IMO, the better argument against Harper remains the team depth. What are the odds we can't find a 3-win RF somewhere out of the 5 non-Eloy OFs in our system? You can do that with a weak bat if the guy is even just good at defense. If we developed a 2-3 win player, Harper would still be an upgrade, just not an upgrade worth $30 million. That's just not happening with the IFs in our organization. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turnin' two Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 8 minutes ago, bmags said: Arb can still be pretty expensive. Betts got 20 million, Arenado will likely be between 20 and 23. Hell, Colome in arb 2 gets 7 million. So starting 2022 you could be talking huge, huge payrolls. Arenado will be at either 24 or 30. I believe that is where they each filed. If they settle it will be between those numbers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 9 minutes ago, bmags said: Arb can still be pretty expensive. Betts got 20 million, Arenado will likely be between 20 and 23. Hell, Colome in arb 2 gets 7 million. So starting 2022 you could be talking huge, huge payrolls. It is why you saw so many guys get non-tendered this year, despite being productive players. Similar free agents are cheaper in many cases. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heirdog Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 (edited) THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO @Balta1701 Agree. And on top of it, if we were to develop or draft more Eloy or Moncada type premium rated prospects, we could use those to get someone who is on a Sale-type team friendly contract. Good to plan for next 5 years by estimation but trying to project that out 10 years is a fool’s errand. The best we can and likely will do is only sign both with potential opt-outs near the end or swell opt closer to those earlier years when you can see what you truly have in the current crop of prospects. Edited January 31, 2019 by heirdog Quoted topic didnt link Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 12 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: But of course...that also would mean that these guys are performing. I will not be mad one iota if Moncada in 2021 gets $10 million in arbitration, because that probably means he's jumped up to be an all star, and having a couple of guys who "Get expensive in arbitration because they're doing really well" alongside Machado and Harper...there's your 95 win playoff team. IMO, the better argument against Harper remains the team depth. What are the odds we can't find a 3-win RF somewhere out of the 5 non-Eloy OFs in our system? You can do that with a weak bat if the guy is even just good at defense. If we developed a 2-3 win player, Harper would still be an upgrade, just not an upgrade worth $30 million. That's just not happening with the IFs in our organization. Madrigal has the highest probability in the entire organization (excluding Eloy) of becoming a 2-3 win player and it’s by pretty wide margin. You’re argument against Harper would apply to Machado as well then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KiwiSox Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Harper is the better player and that's why I would prefer him to Machado. Sometimes its just that simple. I think the Sox see things the same way. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shipps Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Same stuff.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ItsCalledComiskey Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 https://tenor.com/view/toaster-lights-on-and-off-bathtub-confused-bill-murray-gif-10874237 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Look at Ray Ray Run Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 7 minutes ago, KiwiSox said: Harper is the better player and that's why I would prefer him to Machado. Sometimes its just that simple. I think the Sox see things the same way. How? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KiwiSox Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 6 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said: How? I dont think its too controversial to say Harper is a better player from a purely offensive perspective. The number I know are close, but Harper has a noticable edge. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Look at Ray Ray Run Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 1 minute ago, KiwiSox said: I dont think its too controversial to say Harper is a better player from a purely offensive perspective. The number I know are close, but Harper has a noticable edge. There is more to the game than offense. Harper is better offensively but he doesnt have much - but for one year - in which he can claim to be better than Machado imo. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KiwiSox Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 4 minutes ago, Tony said: So....what about all the other aspects of being a professional baseball player? You said “Better player” I dont want to pretend that defense isn't important but the Sox are after these guys because of their ability to drive in some runs and form the anchor of a middle-order. I would still take Harper over Machado overall even though its very close, but if I'm the Sox for what I'm looking for specifically Harper is clearly the better fit. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 I'm at the point where I'm pretty convinced both Harper and Machado are going to sign with the "mystery team." someone not even on anyone's radar. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KiwiSox Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Also keep in the mind the Sox are not potentially paying these guys for what they did in the past, but for what they are going to do in the future. Its easy to look back on each respective player's career and argue about who was marginally better, but the Sox aren't paying them for that necessarily. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KiwiSox Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 2 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said: I'm at the point where I'm pretty convinced both Harper and Machado are going to sign with the "mystery team." someone not even on anyone's radar. haha I think you're just bored/at the end of your rope. We all are. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jerksticks Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 2 minutes ago, KiwiSox said: I dont want to pretend that defense isn't important but the Sox are after these guys because of their ability to drive in some runs and form the anchor of a middle-order. I would still take Harper over Machado overall even though its very close, but if I'm the Sox for what I'm looking for specifically Harper is clearly the better fit. I agree although I don’t think it’s that close. Harper is way better or at least a way better fit for our team needs 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eminor3rd Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 1 hour ago, turnin' two said: Aren't there plenty of reasons not to believe him? Not that they will sign both, but I wouldn't take what a GM says at a fan conference as gospel. What reasons? My point is that what he said lines up with logic and lines up with their past behavior, both recent and distant. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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