10 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Quality rant but machado isn't  a boras client.  Have another egg nog you're rolling.

Didn't say he was. That's why I said this is worse. 

 

I'm not saying the Sox will be a playoff team in 2019 but its not out of the realm to think they can't be competitive if we sign Machado and another decent piece. All you have to do is look at the  Phillies and the Braves in 2017- 2018 (and the Brewers from 2016-2017) and see how both of there win totals went up in a lot tougher division than ours. Our division is by far the worst in baseball and not going to get any better soon especially is Cleveland Starts a rebuild in 2019. A Machado and Eloy make that lineup a whole hell of a lot better and combined with the defense Machado supplies with better catching defense its not out the realm to see surprising improvement in our record.

6 minutes ago, SoxSteve said:

I'm not saying the Sox will be a playoff team in 2019 but its not out of the realm to think they can't be competitive if we sign Machado and another decent piece. All you have to do is look at the  Phillies and the Braves in 2017- 2018 (and the Brewers from 2016-2017) and see how both of there win totals went up in a lot tougher division than ours. Our division is by far the worst in baseball and not going to get any better soon especially is Cleveland Starts a rebuild in 2019. A Machado and Eloy make that lineup a whole hell of a lot better and combined with the defense Machado supplies with better catching defense its not out the realm to see surprising improvement in our record.

And not once in this paragraph is there mention of the pitching. The pitching has to take some major strides to be a good team.

6 minutes ago, SoxSteve said:

I'm not saying the Sox will be a playoff team in 2019 but its not out of the realm to think they can't be competitive if we sign Machado and another decent piece. All you have to do is look at the  Phillies and the Braves in 2017- 2018 (and the Brewers from 2016-2017) and see how both of there win totals went up in a lot tougher division than ours. Our division is by far the worst in baseball and not going to get any better soon especially is Cleveland Starts a rebuild in 2019. A Machado and Eloy make that lineup a whole hell of a lot better and combined with the defense Machado supplies with better catching defense its not out the realm to see surprising improvement in our record.

Agreed.  I think if Manny is signed...and when Eloy is added to the roster there's no reason this couldn't be a playoff team...besides maybe a another decent starting pitcher.

4 minutes ago, SoxSteve said:

I'm not saying the Sox will be a playoff team in 2019 but its not out of the realm to think they can't be competitive if we sign Machado and another decent piece. All you have to do is look at the  Phillies and the Braves in 2017- 2018 (and the Brewers from 2016-2017) and see how both of there win totals went up in a lot tougher division than ours. Our division is by far the worst in baseball and not going to get any better soon especially is Cleveland Starts a rebuild in 2019. A Machado and Eloy make that lineup a whole hell of a lot better and combined with the defense Machado supplies with better catching defense its not out the realm to see surprising improvement in our record.

While Machado and a Eloy would make our lineup substantially better  you did not mention starting pitching and that will be the Sox Achilles heel in 2019. It could improve substantially when Kopech Cease and Dunning arrive in 2020 but expecting them all  to not only succeed but be good right away is pushing the envelop .

Rodon has never had a full good season with the Sox and this will be his 5th year. Giolito was terrible last year and Lopez OK and will only be their 2nd years with the Sox. The one and only way to actually be competitive in 2019 would be for all 3 to have break out years and how likely is that  ? Nova would also have to be better than expected and we still don't really have a fifth starter unless it's Covey . Even if they all had breakout season they would probably be gassed at the end of the season because Rodon has been injured and Giolto and Lopez still need to build up their innings totals. Even adding Kikuchi doesn't move the needle much  because of the highly unlikely event of a bunch of break out years . 2019 is a year to see who can step up among the prospects now in the Majors and also the ones in the minors.

BuehrleWood care to elaborate??

13 minutes ago, Wanne said:

Agreed.  I think if Manny is signed...and when Eloy is added to the roster there's no reason this couldn't be a playoff team...besides maybe a another decent starting pitcher.

or 3. I think it takes a miracle to reach .500 but a 10-15 game improvement would be good. 2020 Kopech Cease Dunning .2021 some of position players start arriving  unless we get multiple level jumps from guys like Robert and Madrigal this year.

Just now, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

or 3. I think it takes a miracle to reach .500 but a 10-15 game improvement would be good. 2020 Kopech Cease Dunning .2021 some of position players start arriving  unless we get multiple level jumps from guys like Robert and Madrigal this year.

I'm basing it on the hope/assumption that Giolito, Lopez both show considerable improvement and Rodon actually stays healthy.  Big ifs I know...but really not that all unreasonable to think IMO.

1 minute ago, Wanne said:

I'm basing it on the hope/assumption that Giolito, Lopez both show considerable improvement and Rodon actually stays healthy.  Big ifs I know...but really not that all unreasonable to think IMO.

I like you being hopeful, its what every spring is for,but all 3 doing something they have never done before is pretty unreasonable. I'd be thrilled if Rodon fulfilled his promise finally and Giolito showed he can control his mechanics and if Lopez made a slight improvement in his peripherals. Improvement yes but considerable improvement is unlikely. Get the babies walking instead of standing and falling down .

Maybe we are trading for Trout?

30 minutes ago, soxfan2014 said:

And not once in this paragraph is there mention of the pitching. The pitching has to take some major strides to be a good team.

I did say another piece didn't I ? Again we have a ton of holes and a pitcher or pitchers are some of them but with Machado and being in that horseshit division its not crazy to think 15-20 games isn't a stretch. Machado is the key ( Harper is a pipe dream imo)

3 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I like you being hopeful, its what every spring is for,but all 3 doing something they have never done before is pretty unreasonable. I'd be thrilled if Rodon fulfilled his promise finally and Giolito showed he can control his mechanics and if Lopez made a slight improvement in his peripherals. Improvement yes but considerable improvement is unlikely. Get the babies walking instead of standing and falling down .

I think it's worth considering that all 3 of those guys could show real progress, this team could sign Machado, Eloy could come up and be one of the best 3 LFs in baseball next year, and that might darn well leave this team in the 70s for wins. 

1 minute ago, SoxSteve said:

I did say another piece didn't I ? Again we have a ton of holes and a pitcher or pitchers are some of them but with Machado and being in that horseshit division its not crazy to think 15-20 games isn't a stretch. Machado is the key ( Harper is a pipe dream imo)

15 games would not be a stretch, but this team won 62 this year. A 15 win improvement leaves them 10 games below .500. I think that's fairly reasonable with machado added. 

Let's be optimistic for next year in adding wins

C : Castillo - +0
1B: Abreu/Alonso +1
2B: Moncada +2
SS: Anderson +1
3B: Machado +4
LF: Jimenez +3
CF: Engel +0
RF: Palka/Delmonico +0
DH: Abreu/Alonso/Palka +0

SP: Rodon +3
SP: Lopez +1
SP: Nova +0
SP: Giolito +2
SP: Covey +0

Of course WAR =/= wins outright but that's 17 WAR added there, which brings them to 79-83. Some guys are going to have down years though or just not improve. It doesn't seem wildly unrealistic this could be a .500 team with Machado and another competent position player and a bullpen piece or two.

Yeah the rotation is nowhere near being ready to compete next season even if the Sox add a good quality starter. Rodon/Gio/Lopez need more time and Nova/Covey is still the fifth starter.. Ick! You could being Chris Sale back and he still would not be enough to make that a playoff rotation for the 2019 season.

7 minutes ago, TomPickle said:

Let's be optimistic for next year in adding wins

C : Castillo - +0
1B: Abreu/Alonso +1
2B: Moncada +2
SS: Anderson +1
3B: Machado +4
LF: Jimenez +3
CF: Engel +0
RF: Palka/Delmonico +0
DH: Abreu/Alonso/Palka +0

SP: Rodon +3
SP: Lopez +1
SP: Nova +0
SP: Giolito +2
SP: Covey +0

Of course WAR =/= wins outright but that's 17 WAR added there, which brings them to 79-83. Some guys are going to have down years though or just not improve. It doesn't seem wildly unrealistic this could be a .500 team with Machado and another competent position player and a bullpen piece or two.

And Cease should be up at some point (hopefully sooner rather than later since if he comes up between mid-April and during September, the control is the same either way).

Edited December 26, 20187 yr by soxfan2014

2 minutes ago, soxfan2014 said:

And Cease should be up at some point (hopefully sooner rather than later since if he comes up between mid-April and during September, the control is the same either way).

If you're counting on a rookie midseason callup with an innings limit to be a big addition to your rotation, you're probably being too optimistic. 

12 minutes ago, TomPickle said:

Let's be optimistic for next year in adding wins

C : Castillo - +0
1B: Abreu/Alonso +1
2B: Moncada +2
SS: Anderson +1
3B: Machado +4
LF: Jimenez +3
CF: Engel +0
RF: Palka/Delmonico +0
DH: Abreu/Alonso/Palka +0

SP: Rodon +3
SP: Lopez +1
SP: Nova +0
SP: Giolito +2
SP: Covey +0

Of course WAR =/= wins outright but that's 17 WAR added there, which brings them to 79-83. Some guys are going to have down years though or just not improve. It doesn't seem wildly unrealistic this could be a .500 team with Machado and another competent position player and a bullpen piece or two.

There's some things hidden in there worth noting - our catcher's spot was worth something like 3.3 fWAR last year between Smith, Narvaez, and Castillo. Yes you'll have Castillo there for a full year, but there's a good chance of a downgrade there. And then you've got the assumption of good health. And all that makes this a "maybe they have a shot at .500 team". I could buy that, but we should also understand that a .500 record is a wildly optimistic scenario where almost everything goes right.

I see this has materialized 

FWIW, WSD said he got a text last week that said Sox are very, very confident they’ll get one of the big 2.  This was on red line radio podcast 

34 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I like you being hopeful, its what every spring is for,but all 3 doing something they have never done before is pretty unreasonable. I'd be thrilled if Rodon fulfilled his promise finally and Giolito showed he can control his mechanics and if Lopez made a slight improvement in his peripherals. Improvement yes but considerable improvement is unlikely. Get the babies walking instead of standing and falling down .

possibly...but I don't think that unreasonable.  If you go look at Giolito's game logs...a number of those games he didn't get out of the 2nd inning.  His first month was brutal....but some of his losses could be flipped into W's with some offensive backing.  Same with Lopez.  Gio still won 10 games.  Sure stat-wise he was meh but building off of a 10-win season...and if he could flip that 10-16 around that would be a huge boost for this team.  Again...very hopeful.  Lopez...I'm not that concerned about.  If Sox addeda a Mike Minor or somebody I think this is a playoff team.  Nobody in the Central is scary.

I think the Sox have a pretty good shot at Machado.. Harper not so much. IMO

2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

There's some things hidden in there worth noting - our catcher's spot was worth something like 3.3 fWAR last year between Smith, Narvaez, and Castillo. Yes you'll have Castillo there for a full year, but there's a good chance of a downgrade there. And then you've got the assumption of good health. And all that makes this a "maybe they have a shot at .500 team". I could buy that, but we should also understand that a .500 record is a wildly optimistic scenario where almost everything goes right.

Yeah, this is almost sure to not happen. It's also projecting another 6 fWAR season from Machado, which is plausible, but not what I would expect certainly in basically any season for a player that isn't Mike Trout. If the team were largely unchanged from the current roster other than adding Machado a very nice step forward would be 75 wins. If that happens then there is real optimism for the 2020 season where you could see Kopech and Cease added to the rotation and maybe one of the CF prospects can break into the lineup as an everyday player and offer an upgrade from Engel.

4 minutes ago, TomPickle said:

Yeah, this is almost sure to not happen. It's also projecting another 6 fWAR season from Machado, which is plausible, but not what I would expect certainly in basically any season for a player that isn't Mike Trout. If the team were largely unchanged from the current roster other than adding Machado a very nice step forward would be 75 wins. If that happens then there is real optimism for the 2020 season where you could see Kopech and Cease added to the rotation and maybe one of the CF prospects can break into the lineup as an everyday player and offer an upgrade from Engel.

I'm still skeptical about what Kopech will be able to give us in 2020, because what we saw from him in both 2017 and 2018 was that he needed a full half season to find command of his stuff before he could begin dominating. 2020 though, that's the year where I can buy people talking about this team putting up wins in the 80s. Even without much from Kopech.

10 minutes ago, fathom said:

FWIW, WSD said he got a text last week that said Sox are very, very confident they’ll get one of the big 2.  This was on red line radio podcast 

I hung out with my buddy on Sunday and his cousin met us up. She works in merchandising for the team and is a buyer for the shops in the stadium. She seems really confident as well.

Edited December 26, 20187 yr by soxfan2014